国家统计局数据显示，1—10月份，全国房地产开发投资73563亿元，同比下降14.7%；其中，住宅投资56595亿元，下降13.8%。1—10月份，新建商品房销 售面积71982万平方米，同比下降6.8%；其中住宅销售面积下降7.0%。新建商品房销售额69017亿元，下降9.6%；其中住宅销售额下降9.4%。10月末，商品 房待售面积75606万平方米，比9月末减少322万平方米。其中，住宅待售面积减少292万平方米。 1—10月份，房地产开发企业房屋施工面积652939万平方米，同比下降9.4%。其中，住宅施工面积455253万平方米，下降9.7%。房屋新开工面积49061万平 方米，下降19.8%。其中，住宅新开工面积35952万平方米，下降19.3%。房屋竣工面积34861万平方米，下降16.9%。其中，住宅竣工面积24866万平方米， 下降18.9%。 二、新建商品房销售和待售情况 1—10月份，新建商品房销售面积71982万平方米，同比下降6.8%；其中住宅销售面积下降7.0%。新建商品房销售额69017亿元，下降9.6%；其中住宅销售额 下降9.4%。 10月末，商品房待售面积75606万平方米， ...

统计局： 中国1-10月新建商品房销售面积71982万平方米，同比下降6.8%（降幅较1-9月扩大1.3个百分点），新建商品房销售额69017亿元，下降9.4%（降幅扩大1.5个百分点）。全国房地产开发投资73563亿元，同比下降14.7%（降幅扩大0.8个百分点）； 房地产开发企业到位资金78853亿元，同比下降9.7%（降幅扩大1.3个百分点）。房地产开发景气指数为92.43。 ...

新华财经北京11月14日电国家统计局11月14日发布的数据显示，1—10月份，全国房地产开发投资73563亿元，同比下降14.7%（按可比口径计算）；其中， 住宅投资56595亿元，下降13.8%。 1—10月份，房地产开发企业房屋施工面积652939万平方米，同比下降9.4%。其中，住宅施工面积455253万平方米，下降9.7%。房屋新开工面积49061万平 方米，下降19.8%。其中，住宅新开工面积35952万平方米，下降19.3%。房屋竣工面积34861万平方米，下降16.9%。其中，住宅竣工面积24866万平方米， 下降18.9%。 1—10月份，新建商品房销售面积71982万平方米，同比下降6.8%；其中住宅销售面积下降7.0%。新建商品房销售额69017亿元，下降9.6%；其中住宅销售额 下降9.4%。 10月末，商品房待售面积75606万平方米，比9月末减少322万平方米。其中，住宅待售面积减少292万平方米。 数据显示，1—10月份，房地产开发企业到位资金78853亿元，同比下降9.7%。其中，国内贷款12160亿元，下降1.8%；利用外资19亿元，下降37.5%；自筹 资金28419亿元，下 ...

（文章来源：国家统计局） 国家统计局数据显示，1—10月份，全国房地产开发投资73563亿元，同比下降14.7%（按可比口径计 算，详见附注6）；其中，住宅投资56595亿元，下降13.8%。 ...

他提到，2025年我国出口表现超预期，上半年净出口对GDP增长贡献率超过30%。10月底中美经贸团队 通过吉隆坡磋商取得阶段性成果，美方将取消针对中国商品加征的10%所谓"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品 加征的24%对等关税继续暂停一年。 当被问及实现5%左右GDP增速目标的支撑条件时，黄文涛对《每日经济新闻》记者表示，首先，外需 仍具有韧性。 "若协议得以有效执行，且非美经济体需求保持扩张，2026年出口增速有望继续超出预期。"黄文涛说。 其次，明年房地产拖累有望收窄。黄文涛提到，今年前三季度，全国房地产开发投资同比下降13.9%， 新建商品房销售额同比下降7.9%。"据我们地产研究团队测算，2026年全国房地产开发投资降幅或略有 收窄；新建商品房销售额降幅或收窄至5%以内，对经济的负向拉动减弱。" 11月11日至13日，中信建投证券与沙特交易所联合主办的"2026年资本市场峰会暨中国-沙特投资合作论 坛"在北京举行。中信建投证券首席经济学家黄文涛在论坛上表示，在政策发力之下，明年中国有望实 现5%左右的GDP增速。 黄文涛认为，2026年为"十五五"规划开局之年，具备"高起步"特征。按照2035年人均GDP达到 ...

Economic Outlook - The economic confidence index for November 2025 is reported at 50.3, remaining stable compared to the previous month, indicating a steady economic outlook with a target growth rate of 5% for the year [1][4][8] - Economists predict that the external environment will remain complex and variable, emphasizing the need for domestic economic focus on restoring internal demand [1][7] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October is forecasted to be -0.1%, showing a slight recovery from the previous month's -0.3% [2][9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be -2.2%, slightly better than the previous month's -2.3% [2][9] Retail and Consumption - The year-on-year growth rate for social retail sales in October is predicted to be 2.7%, down from 3% in the previous month [2][10] - Factors affecting retail growth include a decline in automotive sales and a slowdown in the real estate market, despite positive trends in tourism and online consumption [11][10] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for October is expected to grow by 5.7%, a decrease from the previous month's 6.5% [2][12] - High-frequency data indicates strong production activity, particularly in steel and chemical sectors, suggesting continued robust industrial performance [12] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to be -0.8%, slightly lower than the previous month's -0.5% [2][13] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to receive a boost from new fiscal policies, while real estate investment continues to face challenges [14][15] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for October is forecasted to be $94.26 billion, an increase from the previous month's $90.45 billion [2][16][18] - Export growth is expected to be 2.6%, while import growth is projected at 3.1%, both lower than previous figures [18] Financial Indicators - New loans for October are expected to drop to 454.91 billion yuan from 1.29 trillion yuan in September [2][19] - The total social financing amount is predicted to be 1.3 trillion yuan, down from 3.53 trillion yuan in September [20] Monetary Policy - The M2 money supply growth rate is forecasted to be 8.2%, slightly lower than the previous month's 8.4% [21] - Economists expect little change in the LPR and reserve requirement ratios in the near term, with potential for slight adjustments to stimulate domestic demand [22] Currency and Foreign Reserves - The RMB to USD exchange rate is expected to stabilize at 7.1 by the end of November [3][23] - Foreign exchange reserves are projected to remain steady at approximately $333.71 billion [24] Policy Directions - Macroeconomic policies are expected to focus on enhancing infrastructure and social welfare, with an emphasis on "investment in people" to drive sustainable economic growth [26][27][29] - The government aims to improve residents' income and consumption capacity, which is crucial for stimulating domestic demand [31][32]

Core Insights - The economic growth of the four southwestern provinces (Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Chongqing) has significantly declined in recent years, with their GDP growth rates falling below the national average [1][2][3][4] Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of this year, the GDP figures for the four provinces were as follows: Yunnan at 23,518.47 billion, Guizhou at 17,352.04 billion, Sichuan at 49,322.2 billion, and Chongqing at 24,449.36 billion, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 4.9%, 5.5%, and 5.3% [1][2] - Guizhou's GDP growth has dropped below the national average, with a forecasted growth of 5.3% for 2024, which is only 0.3 percentage points higher than the national average [2][4] - Yunnan's growth has also declined, with a forecast of only 3.3% for 2024, placing it at the bottom of the national growth rankings [2][3] Investment Trends - Investment growth has been a significant factor in the economic slowdown of the southwestern provinces, with a notable decline in fixed asset investment [4][5] - Historical data shows that Guizhou's fixed asset investment growth has decreased from 28.0% in 2013 to negative growth in recent years, indicating a shift from being a leader to one of the provinces with negative growth [4] - Yunnan's fixed asset investment has also suffered, with declines of 10.6% and 7.7% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, largely due to a downturn in real estate development investment [4][5] Sector Performance - The traditional pillar industries in the region, such as alcohol, coal, electricity, and tobacco, are facing challenges, particularly in Guizhou, where the liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments [5] - In the first three quarters, Guizhou's coal mining and washing industry grew by 8.0%, while the electricity and heat production sector grew by 4.1% [5] - Yunnan's traditional industries are also experiencing low growth rates, with the tobacco industry increasing by only 1.0% and the electricity sector by 1.8%, although the non-ferrous metals industry saw a significant increase of 14.6% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 20, a series of important economic data were released. China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters. Although there are favorable conditions to achieve the annual target, there are also short - board issues such as slowdown in consumer spending growth, continued decline in real estate prices and volume, and further expansion of the decline in fixed - asset investment. It is expected that the possibility of introducing specific stimulus policies in 2025 is relatively small [6]. - For pure benzene, the fundamental drive is still downward, but the valuation is low. Short - term sanctions affect supply in central China, but overall supply is rising. Port inventories are decreasing smoothly in October, but the actual inventory is moderately high. The downstream demand for styrene is in a negative feedback channel, and short - term short positions should pay attention to taking profits [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Data Analysis - GDP: China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters [6]. - Consumption: In September, China's social consumer goods retail sales grew 3% year - on - year, and the catering revenue of above - quota units declined 1.6%. The quarterly growth rate of residents' consumption expenditure slowed down significantly [6]. - Industry: In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 6.5% year - on - year, with better growth in equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing [6]. - Investment: From January to September, China's national fixed - asset investment decreased 0.5% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased 13.9% year - on - year [6]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold: Continues to hit new highs, with a trend strength of 1 [11][17]. - Silver: The spot contradiction is alleviated, and the price rises and then falls, with a trend strength of - 1 [11][17]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Copper: The reduction in warehouse receipts and inventory supports the price, with a trend strength of 1 [11][21]. - Zinc: Shows a slight rebound, with a trend strength of 0 [11][24]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory supports the price, with a trend strength of 0 [11][26]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, with a trend strength of 0 [11][31]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina continues to be in surplus, with a trend strength of - 1. Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [11][33]. 3.2.3 Energy Metals - Nickel: Narrowly fluctuates in the short - term, and contradictions are still accumulating, with a trend strength of 0 [11][36]. - Stainless steel: There is no upward driving force in supply and demand, and cost limits the downward space, with a trend strength of 0 [11][36]. - Carbonate lithium: The spot is in short supply, and the strong - side oscillation is expected to continue, with a trend strength of 1 [11][40]. 3.2.4 Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts are removed in the short - term, with a trend strength of 1 [11][44]. - Polysilicon: Market sentiment declines, with a trend strength of 0 [11][44]. 3.2.5 Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][48]. - Rebar: Fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][54]. - Hot - rolled coil: Fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][54]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost provides bottom support, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][59]. - Silicomanganese: Cost provides bottom support, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][59]. 3.2.6 Energy Chemicals - Coke: Expectations are volatile, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][63]. - Coking coal: Expectations are volatile, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][63]. 3.2.7 Others - Logs: Fluctuate repeatedly [14][64]. - Pure benzene: Fluctuates mainly in the short - term [14][63].

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2] - The GDP growth rates for the first three quarters were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3 [3] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in September increased by 6.2% year-on-year [5] - The industrial capacity utilization rate for large-scale enterprises in Q3 was 74.6%, up by 0.6 percentage points from Q2 [12] Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods for the first three quarters amounted to 36,587 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [6] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first three quarters was 874.585 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.5% [6] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing in the first three quarters was 65.85 million square meters, down by 5.5% year-on-year [11] Trade and Prices - The total import and export value for the first three quarters was 3,360.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first three quarters decreased by 0.1% year-on-year [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the first three quarters fell by 2.8% year-on-year [8] Employment and Income - The average urban survey unemployment rate for the first three quarters was 5.2% [9] - The per capita disposable income for residents in the first three quarters was 32,590 yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of 5.1% [12] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment in the first three quarters was 67,706 billion yuan, down by 13.9% year-on-year [10][11] - In September, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month decline, with the year-on-year decline narrowing [12] Economic Outlook - The economic structure remains stable, with ongoing momentum for growth and resilience, indicating a solid foundation for sustained healthy development [13] - Future efforts will focus on implementing counter-cyclical adjustments, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing market vitality to boost growth expectations [13]

Real Estate Development Investment Completion - In the first nine months, national real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [2][4] - Residential investment amounted to 52,046 billion yuan, down 12.9% [2][4] Construction Area and New Starts - The total construction area for real estate development was 648,580 million square meters, a decline of 9.4% year-on-year [4] - New construction area was 45,399 million square meters, down 18.9%, with residential new starts at 33,273 million square meters, decreasing by 18.3% [4] Sales and Inventory of New Commercial Housing - New commercial housing sales area was 65,835 million square meters, a decrease of 5.5%, with residential sales area down 5.6% [5] - The sales revenue for new commercial housing was 63,040 billion yuan, down 7.9%, with residential sales revenue decreasing by 7.6% [5] Inventory Situation - As of the end of September, the inventory of commercial housing was 75,928 million square meters, a reduction of 241 million square meters from the end of August [7] Funding Situation for Real Estate Development Enterprises - In the first nine months, the funds available to real estate development enterprises totaled 72,299 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% [8] - Domestic loans amounted to 11,294 billion yuan, down 1.4%, while foreign investment decreased by 37.3% to 18 million yuan [8] Real Estate Development Prosperity Index - The real estate development prosperity index was recorded at 92.78 in September [10]