宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 3 月 4 日 2 月 PMI 数据点评 制造业供、需指数均有下滑 制造业供、需指数均有下滑。出口仍维持韧性，2 月新出口订单下滑主要受 春节假期等季节性因素影响。制造业主要价格指数仍处于扩张区间。 制造业景气度仍位于收缩区间。2 月制造业 PMI 指数为 49.0%，环比（1 月，下同）下降 0.3 个百分点，制造业景气度在收缩区间继续下滑。着眼 重要细分项，2 月新订单指数 48.6%，环比下降 0.6 个百分点，外需同样 有所下滑，2 月新出口订单指数环比下降 2.8 个百分点，仅为 45.0%。 从不同行业的价格表现看，首先，2 月部分原材料加工业购进价格指数同 比明显改善，黑色金属冶炼加工业、金属制品业购进价格指数同比均有 回升；此外，当月有色金属冶炼及压延加工业购进价格指数同比、环比 均有回升，高技术产业投资或对有色金属产品价格形成重要支撑。2 月部 分设备制造业价格指数依然位于扩张区间，专用设备制造业购进价格指 数同比有所改善。 相关研究报告 《2025 年 CPI 权重更新》20260304 《中期视角下的美债与黄金》20260301 《 ...

2月28日，国家统计局发布《中华人民共和国2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》。全年全社会固定资产投资491109亿元，比上年下降3.9%。固定资产投 资（不含农户）485186亿元，下降3.8%。在固定资产投资（不含农户）中，分区域看，东部地区投资下降8.4%，中部地区投资下降2.7%，西部地区投资下 降1.3%，东北地区投资下降15.5%。 | 行业 | 比上年增长 | 行业 | 比上年增长 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (%) | | (%) | | 总计 | -3.8 | 金融业 | 7.2 | | 农、林、牧、渔业 | -0.8 | 房地产业[48] | -17.5 | | 采矿业 | 2.5 | 租赁和商务服务业 | -4.3 | | 制造业 | 0.6 | 科学研究和技术服务业 | -15.1 | | 电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业 | 9.1 | 水利、环境和公共设施管理业 | -8.4 | | 建筑业 | -22.2 | 居民服务、修理和其他服务业 | 0.9 | | 批发和零售业 | 5.6 | 教育 | -8.3 | | 交通运输、仓储和邮政业 | ...

Investment Chain - Non-ferrous metal prices have risen since February 2026, with fixed asset investment growth in December 2025 declining to -3.80%[1] - Real estate development investment in December 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 17.20%[1] - Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth in December 2025 decreased to 0.60%[1] - Infrastructure investment growth in December 2025 fell to -1.48%[1] Consumption Chain - In December 2025, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of social consumption fell to 0.90%, with a cumulative decline of 3.70%[2] - The consumer confidence index in December 2025 dropped to 89.50[2] - In January 2026, automobile sales saw a year-on-year growth rate increase to -3.18%[2] - Home appliance retail sales in December 2025 experienced a year-on-year decline of 14.25%[2] Export Chain - In December 2025, exports to Japan and ASEAN saw a year-on-year growth increase, while exports to the US and EU declined[3] - The export growth rate for electronic products in December 2025 rose to 37.25%[3] - Textile export value in December 2025 decreased by 4.23% year-on-year[3] - Mechanical export value in December 2025 increased by 6.60% year-on-year[3] Price Chain - As of February 2026, the price of pork decreased to 12.75 yuan/kg[4] - WTI crude oil price increased to $65.63 per barrel on February 24, 2026[4] - PVC spot price rose to 4770 yuan/ton on February 24, 2026[4] - The average price of coal in Qinhuangdao increased in February 2026[4]

挖掘机是基础设施建设的"标配"，是反映基础设施建设、观察固定资产投资等经济变化的风向标。数据 显示，1月份，全国港口设备开工率为33.85%，同比上涨2.97个百分点，环比上涨0.68个百分点。工作 量同比增长率为21.94%，环比增长率为0.28%。1月本受节前停工、人员返乡等季节性因素影响，港口 需求易回落，但此次亮眼表现，说明季节性压制已被旺盛外贸需求对冲，既印证海外订单备货、跨境电 商出海等需求端的强劲韧性，也体现我国港口运营体系成熟，集疏运效率提升，能有效平滑季节波动， 为2026年外贸开局打好基础。（央视财经） ...

北京商报讯(记者和岳)2月15日，北京商报记者从中国国家铁路局获悉，1月份，全国铁路货运量持续增 长，铁路建设高效推进。受春节日期影响，1月份旅客发送量同比下降。客运方面，1月份，全国铁路完 成旅客发送量3.49亿人次，同比下降5.2%；货运方面，1月份，全国铁路完成货运发送量4.38亿吨，同 比增长3.6%。固定资产投资，1月份，全国铁路固定资产投资完成463亿元人民币，同比增长5.5%。 ...

证券代码：601003 证券简称：柳钢股份 公告编号：2026-006 柳州钢铁股份有限公司 关于2026年度固定资产投资计划的公告 ● 风险提示：此为公司对2026年度固定资产投资的计划安排，在具体实施中，根据公司发展战略，可能 存在计划调整的风险，敬请投资者注意投资风险。 ● 该事项经公司2026年2月13日第九届董事会第十九次会议审议通过。 一、投资计划主体 柳钢股份以及控股子公司广西钢铁集团有限公司（以下简称"广西钢铁"）。 二、固定资产投资项目实施的必要性及影响 2026年，公司坚守"精益管理、创新驱动、协同增效"发展理念，通过固定资产投入， 推动公司在高端化、智能化、绿色化、高效化、特色化和国际化领域实现突破，夯实转 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 投资金额：预计2026年固定资产项目投入资金37.22亿元。 型发展根基，提升整体核心竞争力。固定资产投资计划符合公司战略发展需要，符合国家 环保、安全政策的规定，为公司的持续、稳健发展提供保障。 三、2026年固定资产投资计划情况 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to invest a total of 3.722 billion yuan in fixed assets for the year 2026, with a focus on various projects in iron and steel production [1] Investment Plan Summary - The new projects will require an investment of 510 million yuan, focusing on technological upgrades in iron and steel production [1] - Ongoing projects will see an investment of 2.829 billion yuan, which includes renovations of the sintering plant and iron-making facilities [1] - There are five reserve projects with a total planned investment of 5.487 billion yuan, with an expected investment of 383 million yuan in 2026, primarily directed towards the Guangxi steel expansion and quality improvement project [1] - The implementation of this investment plan may face risks related to adjustments and budget overruns [1]

Group 1 - Chinese enterprises are accelerating their overseas expansion due to intense domestic competition and a complex international economic environment, with Singapore emerging as a key destination due to its stable institutional environment and open business climate [2] - In 2025, Chinese enterprises' fixed asset investment in Singapore is projected to reach 29.3 billion SGD, an approximately eightfold increase from 3.4 billion SGD in 2024 [2] - Singapore is expected to attract a total of 142 billion SGD in fixed asset investment in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, with the share from Chinese enterprises rising from 2.5% in 2024 to 20.6%, surpassing the United States' 17.3% [2] Group 2 - The high-end manufacturing sector is the primary area for foreign investment, with manufacturing projects accounting for 85% of the total fixed asset investment in 2025, approximately 121 billion SGD [3] - Semiconductor manufacturers are actively building and expanding facilities to meet the strong global demand for AI chips, servers, and related products [3] - Biopharmaceutical companies are focused on enhancing the production capacity of high-value biopharmaceutical and medical technology products, while chemical companies are increasing investments in specialty chemicals and sustainable materials to support rapid growth in Southeast Asia [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that a significant amount of fixed-term deposits will mature in the first quarter of 2026, leading to improved interest margins for some banks due to the repricing of these deposits [1] - The report suggests that investment in local urban commercial banks is expected to maintain high growth rates, driven by improvements in fixed asset investment supported by new policy financial tools [1] - It is recommended to focus on banks with a large volume of maturing deposits and those likely to see interest margin improvements beyond expectations, as well as urban commercial banks benefiting from fixed asset investment [1] Group 2 - The report anticipates a slight decrease in new credit for January, estimating approximately 51,000-52,000 billion yuan in new RMB loans, which is a small decline compared to the same period last year [2][3] - The corporate operating conditions index showed improvement, indicating strong expectations for credit financing and consumption during the Spring Festival, despite a seasonal decline in production and orders [2] - The report expects that the overall demand for corporate credit in January may be weak, but the support from the Spring Festival holiday could maintain a relatively high level of lending [2]

Group 1 - Fixed asset investment is a key indicator of economic vitality and urban development potential, with Shandong's Rizhao City focusing on project support to optimize investment structure for high-quality economic development by 2025 [1] - Rizhao's industrial investment grew by 28.2% year-on-year in 2025, with significant increases in industrial technological transformation investment by 15.8% and equipment purchases by 45.3%, indicating a strong shift towards high-end, intelligent, and green transformation [2] - The city has implemented measures such as leadership accountability and full-cycle service to enhance project investment, resulting in fixed asset investment growth exceeding the provincial average by 9.1 percentage points [2] Group 2 - Infrastructure construction is accelerating, with key projects like the Weishui High-speed Railway and expansion of the Shenhai Expressway improving regional connectivity and laying a solid foundation for future industrial layout and economic growth [3] - The city plans to continue focusing on major projects, with investments of 215 billion in the Rizhao Port transformation and 188 billion in Century Sunshine Paper, aiming to maintain investment growth at the forefront of the province [3] - The private investment in Rizhao increased by 9.4%, surpassing the provincial average by 16.1 percentage points, reflecting confidence in development prospects and an improved business environment [2]