招商证券研报指出，中国国航上半年归母净利大幅减亏，25Q2实现扭亏为盈。上半年实现归母净亏损 18.1亿元，同比减亏9.8 亿元；其中Q2归母净利润2.4亿元，上年同期为净亏损11.1 亿元，实现单季度扭 亏为盈。卡位优质核心枢纽，长期优势不变。展望25 年，预计公司仍将受益于国际航班修复、油价下 降、行业供需再平衡及自身运营效率提升，有望实现收益水平企稳、盈利能力逐步回升，但受短期商务 出行需求疲软，旺季运价承压影响，该行下调公司2025-27 年归母净利润至为15.3/34.7/38.9 亿元。短期 建议关注反内卷公约下淡季票价韧性、商务出行需求和国际航班恢复进度。长期来看，认为公司以首都 机场为主的四角菱形机场枢纽覆盖了中国经济最发达、人口密度最高的区域，卡位优质核心枢纽，掌握 北京两舱市场主要客源，有望持续受益于商旅出行和国际长航线的修复。维持公司"增持"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 80.76 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with a net loss of 1.81 billion yuan, which is a reduction in loss by 0.98 billion yuan compared to the previous year [6]. - In Q2 2025, the company turned profitable with a net profit of 240 million yuan, compared to a net loss of 1.11 billion yuan in the same period last year [6]. - The international flight capacity is steadily recovering, while domestic flight capacity has slightly decreased, supporting an increase in passenger load factor [6]. - The company expects to benefit from the recovery of international flights, declining oil prices, and improved operational efficiency, leading to a stabilization of revenue levels and gradual recovery of profitability [7]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a passenger revenue of 73.2 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.08% year-on-year, while cargo and mail revenue rose by 7.5% to 3.58 billion yuan [6]. - The unit cost per seat kilometer decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with fuel costs per seat kilometer down by 13.3% [6]. - The company achieved a gross profit of 2.41 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.4% [6]. Operational Metrics - In H1 2025, the company's available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increased by 3.4% and 5.2% year-on-year, respectively, with a passenger load factor of 80.7%, up by 1.4 percentage points [6]. - The international ASK and RPK grew by 16.7% and 17% year-on-year, with a load factor of 76.5% [6]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from its strategic hub at Beijing Capital Airport, which covers economically developed and densely populated areas, and is expected to continue to gain from business travel and international long-haul routes [7]. - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2025-2027, estimating 1.53 billion yuan, 3.47 billion yuan, and 3.89 billion yuan, respectively [7].