Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 80.76 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with a net loss of 1.81 billion yuan, which is a reduction in loss by 0.98 billion yuan compared to the previous year [6]. - In Q2 2025, the company turned profitable with a net profit of 240 million yuan, compared to a net loss of 1.11 billion yuan in the same period last year [6]. - The international flight capacity is steadily recovering, while domestic flight capacity has slightly decreased, supporting an increase in passenger load factor [6]. - The company expects to benefit from the recovery of international flights, declining oil prices, and improved operational efficiency, leading to a stabilization of revenue levels and gradual recovery of profitability [7]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a passenger revenue of 73.2 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.08% year-on-year, while cargo and mail revenue rose by 7.5% to 3.58 billion yuan [6]. - The unit cost per seat kilometer decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with fuel costs per seat kilometer down by 13.3% [6]. - The company achieved a gross profit of 2.41 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.4% [6]. Operational Metrics - In H1 2025, the company's available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increased by 3.4% and 5.2% year-on-year, respectively, with a passenger load factor of 80.7%, up by 1.4 percentage points [6]. - The international ASK and RPK grew by 16.7% and 17% year-on-year, with a load factor of 76.5% [6]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from its strategic hub at Beijing Capital Airport, which covers economically developed and densely populated areas, and is expected to continue to gain from business travel and international long-haul routes [7]. - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2025-2027, estimating 1.53 billion yuan, 3.47 billion yuan, and 3.89 billion yuan, respectively [7].

时光荏苒，8月进入中旬，本周初，今年第16次，8月首次调价落地，国内油价未做调价，2025年汽柴油迎来第4次搁浅的走势，且，最近两次调价，国内呈 现"2连搁浅"的表现。受此影响，国内成品油仍按照7月16日汽柴油下降0.1-0.11元/升后的价格执行，各地汇总价格参考下图，国内部分92号汽油徘徊在7.2元/ 升左右…… 众所周知，国内汽柴油10个工作日进行调价，依据为隔夜原油变化，油价以50元/吨为调价标准线，涨跌不足50元/吨，不作调价，涨跌达到50元/吨相应进行 调整！ 在原油市场，7月末以及8月初，国际油价3个交易日连续上涨，美油报价涨至70美元/桶，布伦特原油报价涨至73.24美元/桶！受原油涨价影响，2025年上次 调价的10个工作日，周期初，油价涨幅扩大至230元/吨！ 但是，随着8月初，原油市场恢复下降，受俄美会谈削弱了市场对于美国制裁的担忧，且，美国经济数据表现不佳，非农就业数据爆冷，市场对于美国经济 疲弱担忧转强！叠加，产油国增产以及美国原油产能增加，市场对于供应过剩的担忧转强，近期，国际油价重心偏弱运行，市场基本面略显偏空！ 据最新消息了解，在原油市场，8月13日，昨日原油报价窄幅偏弱，其中 ...

航空板块 2025 年中期策略：收入企稳成本下降，行业逐 渐迎来业绩拐点 20250612 摘要 2024 年民航总客运量显著增长，但票价同比大幅下滑，一季度延续跌 势，二季度边际企稳。工商务航线受差旅预算影响价格下滑，而五一假 期因私需求强劲，国内旅客量和机票价格均实现同比增长。 普惠发动机问题导致飞机停飞比例上升，叠加波音、商飞产能受限，预 计未来几年航空业供给端将持续偏紧，停飞数据已达 180~200 架，占 全民航运力整体比例约 4%~5%。 油价中枢下降对航空公司业绩支撑明显，油价每下降 1%，国航、东航、 南航成本可降约 4-5 亿元，春秋、吉祥航空降约 5-6 千万元。2025 年 前五月油价下降，一季度单位成本改善，若油价跌破 5,000 元/吨，利润 弹性将显著增加。 航空公司积极整治 OTA 价格乱象，机票价格和销量有望进入正向循环， 有利于收益管理。同时，免签政策推动入境游市场快速增长，2024 年 已接近 2019 年水平，预计 2025 年全面超越，为国际航线带来结构性 需求增量。 Q&A 当前航空行业的整体情况如何？未来几年的发展趋势是什么？ 当前航空公司的运力情况如何？ 自 20 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Korea anticipates a potential easing of inflation in the second half of the year due to declining oil prices and weak demand [1] Group 2 - The decrease in oil prices is a significant factor contributing to the expected inflation relief [1] - Weak demand in the economy is also highlighted as a contributing factor to the potential easing of inflation [1]