Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by Malaysia's rubber export industry in the post-pandemic international trade landscape, highlighting the need for resource-rich countries to adapt and find new opportunities for survival and growth [1]. Group 1: Export Trends - Malaysia's rubber exports to China have been declining for three consecutive years since reaching a peak in 2021, with the total export value for 2024 projected at $1.36 billion, which is only half of the peak during the pandemic [2][4]. - In November 2024, China accounted for 44.2% of Malaysia's rubber exports, but this share dropped to 40.8% just four months later, indicating a shift in the export landscape [10]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The overall cooling of domestic demand in China is a significant factor, as high inventory levels and weak consumption in downstream industries like automotive and construction have led to reduced rubber import needs [5]. - The rise of electric vehicles, which require more durable tires with lower replacement frequency, is accelerating the substitution of natural rubber with synthetic alternatives like S-SBR and BR [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Malaysia is facing increased competition from neighboring countries, particularly Myanmar and Laos, which have seen significant growth in rubber exports to China, with imports from these countries rising from 180,000 tons in 2021 to over 325,000 tons in 2024, an increase of over 80% [6]. - To reduce reliance on a single market, Malaysia is diversifying its export destinations, targeting traditional and emerging markets such as the US, Germany, Turkey, and Iran, while also shifting its product focus from general-purpose rubber to higher-end categories [15][17]. Group 4: Structural Challenges - The Malaysian rubber industry is experiencing structural issues, including an aging workforce with an average age over 50, leading to decreased harvesting efficiency and output [26]. - The volatility of international rubber prices, influenced by climate, geopolitical factors, and global economic uncertainties, poses a significant risk to smallholders, who are often the first to suffer during price drops [26]. Group 5: Transition Efforts - Malaysia is actively pursuing export structure adjustments and diversification, with electronics and chemicals emerging as new growth engines, while also facing challenges such as insufficient R&D investment and a shortage of technical talent [27][30]. - The government is working to enhance resilience and competitiveness in the export system through education, international cooperation, and participation in free trade agreements, but significant efforts are still needed to transition from a resource-dependent to a technology-driven economy [30].