土地循环

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楼市真实写照:不动产,真的成为“不动”产
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 11:18
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant shift, with properties becoming increasingly illiquid and resembling "heirlooms" rather than assets that can be easily traded [3][19]. Land Market Dynamics - There is a stark contrast in the land market, where prime plots in first and second-tier cities are highly competitive, while third and fourth-tier land is largely ignored, with some plots being withdrawn before bidding [4][6]. - The players in the land acquisition market have changed, with state-owned enterprises and city investment companies dominating, as private enterprises have largely exited [5][7]. - From 2021 to 2024, city investment companies have acquired land worth nearly 8 trillion yuan, indicating a significant accumulation of land that remains undeveloped [9][10]. Land Inventory and Development Challenges - A substantial portion of the acquired land, estimated at around 4 trillion yuan, is not yet under development, representing a hidden inventory that could flood the market if developed [11]. - However, even if this land is developed, there is uncertainty regarding its marketability, as many areas face challenges in selling new properties [12]. Government Intervention - A new strategy has emerged where the government uses special bonds to repurchase stagnant land from city investment companies, with plans to recover over 400 billion yuan worth of land [13][15]. - This creates a cycle where city investment companies acquire land, hold it, and then sell it back to the government, allowing them to continue acquiring more land [16]. Market Segmentation and Product Quality - The focus of policies has shifted towards supporting new housing, leading to improved product quality in new developments, which is intended to attract the limited remaining demand [19]. - In contrast, the secondary housing market is struggling, with many properties remaining unsold for extended periods, indicating a lack of interest and investment in this segment [19]. Overall Market Sentiment - The current real estate landscape reflects a dichotomy: while land transactions appear robust, the actual sale of properties is stagnating, leading to a situation where real estate is becoming increasingly "immobile" [19][20].