Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the real estate market in major Chinese cities, highlighting that while supply may decrease in quantity, the quality of offerings is expected to improve, which could maintain market activity but may not significantly boost transaction volumes [1][26]. Group 1: Land Transaction Trends - In the first eight months of 2025, land transaction amounts in 300 cities increased by 9% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities performing significantly better than third and fourth-tier cities [3][5]. - The total land transaction area was 38,982 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 10% [5][8]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Chengdu accounted for 37% of national land transaction amounts, with each exceeding 350 billion yuan in transactions [8][9]. Group 2: Supply Expectations - The expected new supply of residential properties in five key cities over the next nine months is projected to be 1,944 million square meters, representing a year-on-year decrease of 29% [11][14]. - The peak of new project launches is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025, particularly in cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou, where over 50% of new supply is expected [14][15]. - The supply of new residential properties is expected to be primarily focused on affordable and mid-tier products, with significant variations in supply-demand dynamics across different cities [18][25]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Product Segmentation - The supply-demand matching in cities like Hangzhou is relatively high, while mismatches exist in some areas of Shanghai and Chengdu [26][30]. - In Beijing, there is a potential oversupply of mid-tier products, while high-end products may face slight demand fatigue due to increased supply [30][32]. - In contrast, Chengdu is experiencing a shortage of mid-tier products, leading to a sustained supply-demand imbalance [32][37]. Group 4: Inventory and Market Pressure - Cities like Beijing and Xi'an are facing higher inventory turnover periods, exceeding 20 months, which may lead to inventory accumulation as new supply increases [45]. - The overall market heat is expected to be maintained due to the matching of supply and demand in cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou, despite limited impacts on transaction volumes [45].