（原标题：地产微观：数据透视与结构格局） 库存方面，市场去化节奏稳步推进，商品房待售面积已连续 8 个月环比下降，10 月末较 9 月减少 322 万平方米。去库存政策效果在逐步释放。但 10 月末待售面积同比仍增长 3.3%，说明库存总量仍处相对 高位。后续政策仍有发力空间，库存消化仍是市场回稳的重要课题。 房地产市场持续盘整，从城市梯度差异到产品与企业的双重筛选，结构分化特征显著，正勾勒市场新布 局逻辑。这一过程需通过数据细致观察。 降速中的改善信号 开发投资领域仍处于调整阶段，1-10 月全国房地产开发投资完成额同比下降 14.7%，住宅投资下滑 13.8%，新开工面积同比降幅达 19.8%。这组数据直接反映房企策略方向。数据显示房企 "保交付、控 开工" 的核心策略仍在持续，房企对市场的投资信心修复尚需时间积累。开发端复苏动力仍显不足。 销售数据呈现 "总量承压、内生改善" 特点，1-10 月商品房销售面积、销售额同比分别下降 6.8% 和 9.6%，看似延续下行态势，但较去年同期降幅已收窄 9.0 和 11.3 个百分点。内生改善迹象在逐步显 现。10 月单月销售面积同比大跌 19.6%，并非市场复 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the real estate market in major Chinese cities, highlighting that while supply may decrease in quantity, the quality of offerings is expected to improve, which could maintain market activity but may not significantly boost transaction volumes [1][26]. Group 1: Land Transaction Trends - In the first eight months of 2025, land transaction amounts in 300 cities increased by 9% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities performing significantly better than third and fourth-tier cities [3][5]. - The total land transaction area was 38,982 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 10% [5][8]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Chengdu accounted for 37% of national land transaction amounts, with each exceeding 350 billion yuan in transactions [8][9]. Group 2: Supply Expectations - The expected new supply of residential properties in five key cities over the next nine months is projected to be 1,944 million square meters, representing a year-on-year decrease of 29% [11][14]. - The peak of new project launches is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025, particularly in cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou, where over 50% of new supply is expected [14][15]. - The supply of new residential properties is expected to be primarily focused on affordable and mid-tier products, with significant variations in supply-demand dynamics across different cities [18][25]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Product Segmentation - The supply-demand matching in cities like Hangzhou is relatively high, while mismatches exist in some areas of Shanghai and Chengdu [26][30]. - In Beijing, there is a potential oversupply of mid-tier products, while high-end products may face slight demand fatigue due to increased supply [30][32]. - In contrast, Chengdu is experiencing a shortage of mid-tier products, leading to a sustained supply-demand imbalance [32][37]. Group 4: Inventory and Market Pressure - Cities like Beijing and Xi'an are facing higher inventory turnover periods, exceeding 20 months, which may lead to inventory accumulation as new supply increases [45]. - The overall market heat is expected to be maintained due to the matching of supply and demand in cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou, despite limited impacts on transaction volumes [45].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [25]. Core Insights - In July 2025, the new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.5%. The decline in new home prices remained consistent with June, while the drop in second-hand home prices showed a slight narrowing [6][9]. - The number of cities experiencing a decline in new home prices increased to 60, with an average drop of 0.38%. For second-hand homes, 68 cities saw a price decrease, with an average decline of 0.57% [6][12]. - First-tier cities experienced a narrowing of new home price declines but faced increased downward pressure on second-hand home prices, which recorded the largest monthly drop since October 2024 [6][16]. - The report emphasizes the need for the real estate market to stabilize and recover, with a focus on "high-quality urban renewal" as a key task for the industry [6][18]. Summary by Sections New Home Prices - In July, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.2%, a slight improvement from June. Shanghai saw a 0.3% increase, while Beijing remained stable [6][9]. - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities dropped by 1.0%, marking a significant increase in the rate of decline compared to June [6][16]. Second-Hand Home Prices - Second-tier cities saw new home prices decrease by 0.4%, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.5%, showing a slight improvement from June [6][14]. - Third-tier cities maintained a stable decline in new home prices at 0.3%, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.5%, also showing a slight improvement [6][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and China Resources Land [6]. 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [6]. 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes, such as New Town Holdings and Longfor Group [6]. 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand market, including Beike-W and Wo Ai Wo Jia [6].