在线娱乐票务

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猫眼娱乐(01896.HK):首次分红重视股东回报 关注重点内容票房表现
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-23 02:20
Core Viewpoint - The company's 2024 performance is in line with expectations, with a significant decline in both revenue and net profit, but a potential recovery in ticket sales is anticipated for 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 4.08 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%, falling within the forecast range of 4.05 to 4.15 billion yuan [1]. - Net profit for 2024 was 180 million yuan, down 80.0% year-on-year, also within the forecast range of 150 to 200 million yuan [1]. - Non-IFRS net profit was 310 million yuan, aligning with expectations [1]. Industry Trends - The main business is expected to decline in 2024 due to market pressures, with a focus on the recovery trend of ticket sales [1]. - The forecast for the 2025 film box office is 55 billion yuan, suggesting a potential recovery in ticket sales revenue of 25% to 30% year-on-year [1]. - The average ticket price increase and the performance of imported films may impact this recovery [1]. - The live performance ticketing sector is projected to grow by 15.4% year-on-year in 2024, with an expected industry growth rate of over 10% in 2025 [1]. Content Production - The company has a rich pipeline of films, with 63 domestic films produced in 2024, indicating a strong selection and data capability [2]. - Key films to watch include "The Lychee of Chang'an" and others scheduled for release in 2024, which may provide profit elasticity [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced its first dividend, proposing a final dividend of 0.32 HKD per share for the year ending December 31, 2024, with a dividend yield exceeding 4% based on the closing price [3]. - A three-year dividend plan aims to distribute at least 20% of net profit each fiscal year, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [3]. - The total amount for dividends and buybacks in 2024 is expected to account for 50% of retained earnings [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to pressure on actual ticket sales and a rigid recovery in gross margins, the Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 32.9% and 31.6% to 695 million and 802 million yuan, respectively [3]. - The current price corresponds to 11.9 and 10.2 times Non-IFRS P/E for 2025 and 2026 [3]. - The target price is maintained at 10.2 HKD, suggesting a 33.0% upside potential based on the adjusted profit forecasts and improving content supply in the industry [3].