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同程旅行(00780.HK):业绩符合预期 利润率持续上行
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-04 21:50
Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 5.509 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.06 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit margin reached 19.2%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - The core OTA (Online Travel Agency) business showed robust growth with revenue of 4.609 billion yuan, up 14.9% year-on-year; however, vacation revenue decreased by 8.0% to 900 million yuan due to impacts in Southeast Asia and reduced buyout business [1] - Within the OTA business, accommodation revenue was 1.580 billion yuan (+14.7%), transportation revenue was 2.209 billion yuan (+9.0%), and other revenues, including hotel management, reached 821 million yuan (+34.9%) [1] Accommodation and Transportation Insights - The accommodation booking business benefited from increased room nights, a recovery in ADR (Average Daily Rate) since Q2, and a shift towards higher-quality products, leading to a 15% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 [1] - The transportation business saw a 9% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, supported by normalized domestic flight demand, with expectations for further improvement in the company's take rate [1] Hotel Management Business - The hotel management business, identified as the company's second growth curve, maintained high growth, with nearly 3,000 hotels in operation as of the end of September, an increase of about 300 from Q2, and 1,500 hotels in preparation [2] - Wanda Hotel Management is expected to be consolidated in Q4, contributing some revenue, although its impact on the annual results is limited [2] International Travel Business - The outbound travel business turned profitable in Q3 and is expected to reach breakeven for the full year; the international air ticketing business showed strong growth, accounting for 6% of total transportation ticketing revenue, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company aims to increase the share of outbound travel business in ticketing and hotel revenue to 10-15% in the future [2] Profitability and Forecast - The company's profitability is on an upward trajectory, with the adjusted net profit margin continuing to improve, reaching 19.2% in Q3, up 1 percentage point year-on-year [2] - The company forecasts overall revenues of 19.32 billion, 21.66 billion, and 24.60 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 3.37 billion, 3.87 billion, and 4.40 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14, 13, and 11 times at the current stock price [3]