Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 5.509 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.06 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit margin reached 19.2%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - The core OTA (Online Travel Agency) business showed robust growth with revenue of 4.609 billion yuan, up 14.9% year-on-year; however, vacation revenue decreased by 8.0% to 900 million yuan due to impacts in Southeast Asia and reduced buyout business [1] - Within the OTA business, accommodation revenue was 1.580 billion yuan (+14.7%), transportation revenue was 2.209 billion yuan (+9.0%), and other revenues, including hotel management, reached 821 million yuan (+34.9%) [1] Accommodation and Transportation Insights - The accommodation booking business benefited from increased room nights, a recovery in ADR (Average Daily Rate) since Q2, and a shift towards higher-quality products, leading to a 15% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 [1] - The transportation business saw a 9% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, supported by normalized domestic flight demand, with expectations for further improvement in the company's take rate [1] Hotel Management Business - The hotel management business, identified as the company's second growth curve, maintained high growth, with nearly 3,000 hotels in operation as of the end of September, an increase of about 300 from Q2, and 1,500 hotels in preparation [2] - Wanda Hotel Management is expected to be consolidated in Q4, contributing some revenue, although its impact on the annual results is limited [2] International Travel Business - The outbound travel business turned profitable in Q3 and is expected to reach breakeven for the full year; the international air ticketing business showed strong growth, accounting for 6% of total transportation ticketing revenue, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company aims to increase the share of outbound travel business in ticketing and hotel revenue to 10-15% in the future [2] Profitability and Forecast - The company's profitability is on an upward trajectory, with the adjusted net profit margin continuing to improve, reaching 19.2% in Q3, up 1 percentage point year-on-year [2] - The company forecasts overall revenues of 19.32 billion, 21.66 billion, and 24.60 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 3.37 billion, 3.87 billion, and 4.40 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14, 13, and 11 times at the current stock price [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of 5.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.060 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year [4]. Group 1: Business Performance - The core OTA business achieved revenue of 4.609 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [5]. - Accommodation booking revenue reached 1.579 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, driven by strong summer demand and an increase in high-quality hotel bookings [5]. - Transportation ticketing revenue was 2.209 billion yuan, a 9.0% increase year-on-year, supported by the growth in international ticket sales [5]. - Other business revenue surged to 0.821 billion yuan, marking a 34.9% increase, primarily due to strong performance in hotel management [5]. - Vacation revenue decreased to 0.900 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing safety concerns regarding travel to Southeast Asia [5]. Group 2: Profitability and Efficiency - The company's gross margin reached 65.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 19.2%, up 1.0 percentage point [6]. - Profitability improvements were driven by revenue scale effects and the application of AI technologies, enhancing operational efficiency and customer experience [6]. - The number of annual paying users reached 253 million, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, with over 87% of registered users residing in non-first-tier cities [6]. - The international and hotel management businesses are expected to contribute more profits in 2026, with the international business projected to break even [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates that Q4 2025 core OTA revenue will maintain double-digit year-on-year growth, with other business revenue driven by hotel management continuing to grow [7]. - Accommodation revenue is expected to sustain double-digit growth, while transportation revenue is projected to grow in single digits, and vacation business may face continued pressure [7].

Core Insights - The report from Everbright Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel (00780), highlighting robust performance in Q3 with double-digit growth in both revenue and adjusted net profit, driven by strong performance in the core OTA business, particularly in international ticketing and hotel management [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tongcheng Travel achieved revenue of 5.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%; adjusted net profit reached 1.060 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year; the adjusted net profit margin was 19.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The core OTA business revenue reached 4.609 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [2] Business Segmentation - Accommodation booking revenue in Q3 2025 was 1.579 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, driven by strong summer demand and an increase in high-quality hotel bookings [2] - Transportation ticketing revenue was 2.209 billion yuan, a 9.0% year-on-year increase, supported by the growth in international ticketing, which accounted for 6% of total transportation revenue, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Other business revenue reached 821 million yuan, a significant increase of 34.9% year-on-year, primarily due to strong performance in hotel management [2] Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 65.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year; the adjusted net profit margin was 19.2%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance operational efficiency, with the AI trip planning tool DeepTrip attracting millions of users [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of annual paying users reached 253 million, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, with over 87% of registered users residing in non-first-tier cities [3] Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, the core OTA business is expected to maintain double-digit year-on-year revenue growth, with other business revenues likely to be driven by hotel management [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 25.50, indicating a potential upside of 18.4% from the current price of HKD 21.54 [1][5][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a 9% year-on-year revenue growth and a 13% increase in profit for the third quarter, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 15% to RMB 4.6 billion [5][6]. - Adjustments have been made to the financial forecasts for 2025-2027, with total revenue estimates for 2025 set at RMB 19.232 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 10.9% [4][12]. - The report highlights that the travel industry is facing challenges due to weak demand for group tours in certain overseas regions, impacting overall performance [5][6]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 19,232 million, RMB 21,466 million, and RMB 23,703 million respectively, with a consistent growth trajectory [4][12]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same years are RMB 3,390 million, RMB 3,813 million, and RMB 4,278 million, indicating a steady increase in profitability [4][12]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable, with slight improvements projected over the forecast period [4][12]. Performance Metrics - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 49.996 billion, with a year-to-date stock price change of 18.35% [3][12]. - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 24.28 and a low of HKD 16.88, indicating significant price movement within the year [3][12]. - Daily average trading volume stands at 5.46 million shares, reflecting active trading interest [3].

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the revenue and profit forecasts for Tongcheng Travel (00780) for 2025 and 2026, with an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 28, indicating an upside potential of 28% [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecasts - For Q3 2025, CICC expects core OTA revenue to grow by 14% year-on-year, with total group revenue increasing by 9% to RMB 5.45 billion, and Non-IFRS net profit projected at RMB 1.02 billion [2] - The hotel segment is expected to see a 10-15% increase in room nights, with a stable share of three-star hotels, leading to a 14% growth in accommodation revenue [2] - The transportation segment is projected to grow by 9%, benefiting from a 3% increase in domestic flight passenger volume and a rise in international ticket sales [2] Group 2: Overall Business Performance - The company maintains a 15% growth expectation for core OTA revenue in 2025, driven by steady growth in domestic accommodation and transportation, along with contributions from international business [3] - The hotel management business is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with the completion of the acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management in Q4 [3] - CICC maintains the forecast for the company's Non-IFRS net profit at RMB 3.3 billion for 2025, supported by efficient cost control and enhanced international business monetization [3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the revenue and profit forecasts for Tongcheng Travel (00780) for 2025 and 2026, with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 28, indicating an upside potential of 28% [1] Group 1: Revenue Forecasts - For Q3 2025, the group expects a 9% year-on-year increase in total revenue to CNY 5.45 billion, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 14% to CNY 4.59 billion [2] - The hotel segment is anticipated to see a 10-15% increase in room nights, with a steady rise in the share of three-star hotels, leading to a 14% growth in accommodation revenue [2] - The transportation segment is expected to grow by 9%, benefiting from a 3% increase in domestic flight passenger volume and a rapid growth in international ticket sales [2] - Other revenues are projected to increase by 34%, driven by growth in hotel management and PMS revenues [2] Group 2: Annual Guidance - The company maintains its 2025 core OTA revenue growth forecast at 15%, supported by steady growth in domestic accommodation and transportation, along with contributions from international business [3] - The company is expected to achieve a Non-IFRS net profit of CNY 3.3 billion for 2025, aided by efficient cost control and enhanced monetization of international business [3]

Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of 4.669 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, and an adjusted net profit of 775 million yuan, up 18.0% year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit margin reached 16.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the core OTA business profit margin was 26.7%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Business Performance - The core OTA business showed steady performance with revenue reaching 4.008 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7% [1] - Accommodation booking revenue was 1.371 billion yuan, up 15.2% year-on-year, driven by new accommodation scenarios such as concerts and sports events, with daily room nights hitting a record high [1] - Transportation ticketing revenue reached 1.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, supported by enhanced value-added services and a nearly 30% year-on-year growth in international ticket volume [1] - Other business revenue was 755 million yuan, up 27.5% year-on-year, primarily due to hotel management business growth [1] - Vacation revenue decreased by 8.0% year-on-year to 662 million yuan, mainly due to reduced income from Southeast Asia outbound travel groups [1] Profitability and Efficiency - The company's gross margin reached 65.0%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with the adjusted net profit margin at 16.6% [2] - The core OTA business profit margin improved to 26.7%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and increased average revenue per user (ARPU) [2] - AI has processed over 60% of online accommodation booking inquiries and over 30% of phone inquiries, contributing to improved operational efficiency [2] Strategic Focus - The primary strategic focus is on enhancing domestic OTA market share and profit margins, with cautious investment in heavy asset sectors [2] - Q3 2025 core OTA revenue is expected to maintain double-digit year-on-year growth, benefiting from ADR increases and hotel management business development [2] Financial Forecast - The company maintains adjusted net profit forecasts of 3.381 billion yuan, 4.063 billion yuan, and 4.651 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding adjusted PE ratios of 13, 11, and 10 times [3]

Core Insights - Tongcheng Travel's Q2 2025 revenue increased by 10% to 4.67 billion yuan, slightly above market expectations by 0.6%, driven by better-than-expected hotel and other revenues [1] - Non-IFRS net profit reached 770 million yuan, exceeding market expectations by 3.3%, with a Non-IFRS net profit margin of 16.6%, attributed to improved marketing efficiency [1] Revenue Growth - Domestic hotel business outperformed the industry, with Q2 2025 Average Daily Rate (ADR) showing positive year-on-year growth, reflecting changes in consumer habits; the share of room nights from three-star hotels increased by 4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company expects Q3 2025 hotel room nights to grow by 10-15% year-on-year, with ADR showing low single-digit growth, anticipating a 13% year-on-year increase in hotel revenue [1] - International flight ticket volume increased by over 30% in Q2 2025, with international ticket revenue accounting for over 6% of transportation revenue, a 2 percentage point increase year-on-year [1] Future Growth Engines - The outbound business and hotel management are identified as dual growth engines; the company is tapping into the outbound travel demand from lower-tier markets and aims for international business to break even by year-end [2] - The hotel management business is expanding, with over 2,700 hotels currently operating on the Yilong hotel technology platform and another 1,500 in preparation, ranking 8th in the China Hotel Association's list for 2024 [2] Profitability Improvement - Core OTA operating profit reached 1.07 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with an operating profit margin of 26.7%, up from 24.3% in the same period last year [2] - The company anticipates continued improvement in profit margins due to enhanced marketing efficiency, operational leverage, and the maturation of international business [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its revenue and profit expectations for 2025/2026, with a target price of 23 HKD, corresponding to 15x/12x 2025e and 2026e Non-IFRS P/E, indicating a potential upside of 17% [2]

Core Insights - The quarterly performance is in line with expectations, with a projected 15% year-on-year growth in core OTA business revenue for Q3, driven by an increase in accommodation night volume and stable ADR [1] - The full-year growth for core OTA business is expected to be 16%, with an operational profit margin improvement of approximately 2 percentage points, primarily due to the company's strategic shift towards enhancing user ARPU and profitability in new businesses such as outbound travel and hotel management [1] - The travel sector is experiencing a contraction in the Southeast Asia region, with a projected 10% year-on-year decline in buyout business revenue, although it remains profitable [1] Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, total revenue increased by 10% year-on-year to 4.7 billion RMB, aligning with market expectations [1] - Core OTA revenue grew by 14%, with accommodation revenue up by 15% due to diversified booking scenarios leading to high single-digit growth in night volume, and ADR showing low single-digit positive growth [1] - Transportation revenue increased by 8%, benefiting from improved monetization rates [1] - The adjusted operational profit margin for core OTA was 27%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by ARPU enhancement, scale effects, improved marketing ROI, and better profitability in new businesses [1] - Overall adjusted net profit rose by 18% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 3%, with a corresponding net profit margin of 17%, reflecting a year-on-year improvement of approximately 1 percentage point [1] User Metrics - User base continues to grow steadily, with the number of annual paying users reaching a record high of 252 million, a 10% year-on-year increase [1] - The average monthly paying user count increased by 9% to 46.4 million [1] - The company's own app remains a key channel for acquiring new users, with daily active users (DAU) reaching a historical peak before the May Day holiday, contributing approximately 8% to core OTA revenue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a 10% year-on-year revenue growth to 4.66 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with core OTA revenue expected to grow by 13% to 3.99 billion yuan, while the vacation business continues to face pressure [1][2] Group 1: Revenue Projections - The company anticipates Q2 2025 core OTA revenue growth of 13%, driven by better-than-expected performance in accommodation and other businesses, although transportation revenue growth is expected to be lower than previously anticipated due to industry impacts [1] - Hotel revenue is projected to grow by 14% year-on-year in Q2 2025, benefiting from a low base effect and improved commission rates, with expectations for accelerated growth in hotel night volume during peak seasons in the second half of the year [1] - The company has adjusted its full-year transportation revenue growth forecast to 10%, with Q2 2025 transportation revenue expected to grow by 9%, reflecting a slowdown in domestic flight volume growth [2] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Control - The company expects a Non-IFRS net profit of 750 million yuan in Q2 2025, supported by effective cost control and a reduction in expenses [1][2] - The full-year profit guidance has been raised to 3.3-3.4 billion yuan, up from the previous 3.2-3.4 billion yuan, indicating improved profit margins due to efficient cost management and anticipated profitability in international operations [2] - The company has increased its 2025 profit forecast by 2% to 3.3 billion yuan, maintaining a profit forecast of 3.9 billion yuan for 2026, with a target price of 23 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 9% [2]