港股公司点评 | 携程集团-S 日期：2026 年 03 月 04 日 国际业务增长稳健，入境游表现亮眼 携程集团-S（09961.HK）2025 四季度业绩点评 ⚫ 核心观点 事件：2 月 26 日，携程集团发布 2025 年四季度及全年未经审计的财务业绩， 2025 年旅游市场韧性强劲，携程主营业务营收稳健增长，2025Q4 公司营收 154 亿元（同比+21%），净利润 43 亿元；2025 全年公司营收 624 亿元（同比+17%）， 净利润 334 亿元，同比显著增加主因 199 亿元投资利得贡献较多。 携程 2025Q4 及全年业绩表现亮眼。分业务来看，住宿预订业务 2025Q4 营收 63 亿元，同比+21%；全年营收 261 亿元，同比+21%，主要得益于出境游和国际酒 店预订需求。交通票务业务 2025Q4 营收 54 亿元，同比+12%，国际机票预订增 长强劲；全年营收 225 亿元，同比+11%。旅游度假 2025Q4 营收 11 亿元，同比 +21%，主要受国际业务扩张驱动；全年营收 47亿元，同比+8%。商旅管理业 2025Q4 营收 8.08 亿元，同比+15%，主要由企业采用管理 ...

2026 年 2 月 28 日 公司研究 25Q4 各业务营收均呈双位数增长，国际业务表现强劲 ——携程集团-S（9961.HK）25Q4 业绩点评 买入（维持） 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.14 | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 2857.03 | | 一年最低/最高(港 | 397.20/613.00 | | 元)： | | | 近 3 月换手率： | 31.73% | 股价相对走势 当前价：400.40 港元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523877 wanghangyu@ebscn.com | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -16.73 | -33.72 | -21 ...

2025全年净营收624亿元，同比上升17%，净利润332.9亿元，同比暴涨95%，核心OTA业务成交额更是 突破1.1万亿，其中机票业务就占了五成！ 更值得关注的是，国际业务贡献了40%的总收入，较上年提升5个百分点，入境游服务人次同比接近翻 倍，这是携程跳出国内竞争、布局全球的核心信号。 现在国内中高端酒店、国际航班资源，携程占据了半壁江山，尤其是出境游和入境游赛道，它的供应链 优势几乎无人能及，2025年投入超10亿元推动入境游增长，服务超2000万人次入境旅客，这就是独家优 势。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：美刀哥） 本文章来自美刀哥会员直播精华 每周一三五准时直播 今天我们来讲讲携程的财报，看看经历反垄断风波后它的数据如何？ 第四季度，携程营收154亿元，同比上升21%，携程净利润同比暴涨98%，净营收同比狂增21%，这还不 是最关键的。 最核心的：携程现在的赚钱逻辑，正在被反垄断调查彻底颠覆，它过去的护城河，可能正在慢慢消失。 先给大家科普一下背景：近期，市场监管部门针对在线旅游平台的反垄断调查持续推进，携程作为行业 龙头，首当其冲被纳入调查范围，核心调查方向是"二选一""捆绑销售""大数据杀熟"以及 ...

Core Viewpoint - The OTA (Online Travel Agency) industry is facing significant scrutiny due to long-standing imbalances between platform and merchant interests, highlighted by an investigation into Ctrip for alleged monopolistic practices [1][7]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The State Administration for Market Regulation has initiated an investigation into Ctrip for suspected abuse of market dominance under the Anti-Monopoly Law [1]. - Ctrip has stated that its operations are normal and that it will cooperate with regulatory authorities to foster a sustainable market environment [1]. - Since 2025, the OTA industry has faced multiple regulatory inquiries, including discussions about practices like "choose one from two," price manipulation, and other unfair practices [1][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Ctrip's revenue has remained robust, with a reported net operating income of 18.3 billion RMB in Q3 2025, marking a 16% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase [2][8]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Ctrip's total revenue reached 47.011 billion RMB, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29.013 billion RMB, where accommodation booking contributed over 40% of the revenue [2][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The hotel industry in China has approximately 570,000 facilities and 19.27 million rooms, with a chain rate of 26.75% for hotel stores and 40.09% for rooms, indicating significant room for growth compared to over 70% in developed countries [2][8]. - The low chain rate suggests many hotels operate independently, lacking strong direct sales capabilities, which increases reliance on large OTAs for room distribution [2][8]. Group 4: Merchant-Platform Relations - Some OTAs exert pressure on hotels regarding pricing, promotion, and platform ranking, often requiring hotels to subsidize lower room rates, leading to profit erosion for hotels [3][9]. - Smaller accommodation providers, such as guesthouses and small restaurants, face challenges without the support of large OTAs, exacerbating the tension between merchants and platforms [3][9]. - The imbalance in revenue between OTAs and merchants has intensified post-pandemic, particularly affecting the hospitality sector [3][9]. Group 5: Regulatory Framework - In December 2025, new regulations were issued to govern pricing behavior on internet platforms, emphasizing that platform operators cannot force merchants to lower prices or impose unfair fees [4][10]. - These regulations reflect a governmental effort to address the conflicts between channels and merchants, aiming to create a more equitable environment [5][10]. Group 6: Future Considerations - The necessity of OTAs and e-commerce platforms is acknowledged, but there is a call for a balanced approach to commission structures to prevent merchant losses and market shrinkage [6][10]. - The rise of live streaming and fragmented sales channels is expected to diversify consumer options, prompting OTAs to explore varied business models for sustainable growth [6][10].

Core Viewpoint - The OTA industry is facing significant scrutiny due to long-standing imbalances between platform and merchant interests, highlighted by an investigation into Ctrip for alleged monopolistic practices [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The State Administration for Market Regulation has initiated an investigation into Ctrip for suspected abuse of market dominance under the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China [1]. - Ctrip has previously faced multiple regulatory discussions since 2025, including being summoned by market regulators in Guizhou, Zhengzhou, and Yunnan for issues related to pricing and anti-competitive practices [1]. - In December 2025, new regulations were issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and other agencies, emphasizing that platform operators must not impose unfair pricing practices on merchants [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Ctrip reported a net operating revenue of 18.3 billion RMB in Q3 2025, marking a 16% year-on-year increase and a 24% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Ctrip's total revenue reached 47.011 billion RMB, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29.013 billion RMB [2]. - The accommodation booking segment contributed over 40% of Ctrip's revenue, indicating its significance in the company's overall financial performance [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The low chain rate in China's hotel industry, at 26.75% for stores and 40.09% for rooms, suggests significant room for growth compared to over 70% in developed countries, indicating a reliance on OTAs for distribution [2]. - Some OTAs exert pressure on hotels regarding pricing and promotions, leading to conflicts where hotels may have to subsidize lower prices while platforms profit [3]. - The imbalance between OTAs and smaller accommodation providers, particularly in the wake of the pandemic, has intensified tensions, especially in the vacation rental sector [3][6]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The emergence of new sales channels, such as live streaming and fragmented retail, is expected to divert some consumers and merchants away from traditional OTAs, prompting a need for these platforms to explore diversified business models [6]. - The necessity of OTAs in the digital age is acknowledged, but there is a call for fair commission structures to prevent merchant losses and ensure sustainable market growth [6].

Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 5.509 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.06 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit margin reached 19.2%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - The core OTA (Online Travel Agency) business showed robust growth with revenue of 4.609 billion yuan, up 14.9% year-on-year; however, vacation revenue decreased by 8.0% to 900 million yuan due to impacts in Southeast Asia and reduced buyout business [1] - Within the OTA business, accommodation revenue was 1.580 billion yuan (+14.7%), transportation revenue was 2.209 billion yuan (+9.0%), and other revenues, including hotel management, reached 821 million yuan (+34.9%) [1] Accommodation and Transportation Insights - The accommodation booking business benefited from increased room nights, a recovery in ADR (Average Daily Rate) since Q2, and a shift towards higher-quality products, leading to a 15% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 [1] - The transportation business saw a 9% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, supported by normalized domestic flight demand, with expectations for further improvement in the company's take rate [1] Hotel Management Business - The hotel management business, identified as the company's second growth curve, maintained high growth, with nearly 3,000 hotels in operation as of the end of September, an increase of about 300 from Q2, and 1,500 hotels in preparation [2] - Wanda Hotel Management is expected to be consolidated in Q4, contributing some revenue, although its impact on the annual results is limited [2] International Travel Business - The outbound travel business turned profitable in Q3 and is expected to reach breakeven for the full year; the international air ticketing business showed strong growth, accounting for 6% of total transportation ticketing revenue, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company aims to increase the share of outbound travel business in ticketing and hotel revenue to 10-15% in the future [2] Profitability and Forecast - The company's profitability is on an upward trajectory, with the adjusted net profit margin continuing to improve, reaching 19.2% in Q3, up 1 percentage point year-on-year [2] - The company forecasts overall revenues of 19.32 billion, 21.66 billion, and 24.60 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 3.37 billion, 3.87 billion, and 4.40 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14, 13, and 11 times at the current stock price [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant revenue growth driven by robust travel demand and successful international business expansion [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 18.37 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.5% [1]. - Gross margin stood at 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points year-over-year [1]. - Operating profit reached 5.57 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-over-year [1]. - Net profit soared to 19.89 billion yuan, a remarkable year-over-year increase of 194.0%, primarily due to gains from the disposal of certain investments [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation booking revenue was 8.05 billion yuan, growing 18.3% year-over-year [1]. - Transportation ticketing revenue reached 6.31 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-over-year [1]. - Vacation business revenue was 1.61 billion yuan, increasing by 3.1% year-over-year [1]. - Business travel management revenue amounted to 0.76 billion yuan, up 15.2% year-over-year [1]. - Other business revenue was 1.65 billion yuan, showing a significant growth of 33.9% year-over-year [1]. International Business Growth - The international OTA platform saw total bookings increase by approximately 60% year-over-year in Q3 2025 [1]. - Inbound tourism bookings more than doubled, growing over 100% year-over-year [1]. - Outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019, with the Asia-Pacific region being a major contributor to this growth, exceeding 50% overall [1]. Cost Structure - Sales expense ratio was 22.8%, up 1.5 percentage points year-over-year, reflecting increased marketing investments in overseas markets [2]. - Management expense ratio was 6.2%, down 0.4 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - R&D expense ratio was 22.3%, down 0.7 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - Total expense ratio was 51.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-over-year [2]. Non-Recurring Gains - The sale of MakeMyTrip shares resulted in other income of 17.03 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a substantial increase from 1.78 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - This transaction led to a significant rise in corporate income tax expenses to 3.3 billion yuan, compared to 720 million yuan in the previous year [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading domestic OTA, with steady growth in domestic operations and promising progress in international expansion [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 61.68 billion yuan, 70.16 billion yuan, and 79.54 billion yuan, with net profits of 31.65 billion yuan, 20.62 billion yuan, and 23.59 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The target market capitalization is set at 452.4 billion HKD, with a target price of 635 HKD per share, indicating a potential upside of 12.3% [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve resilient revenue growth in Q3, with a projected year-on-year revenue increase of 9.8% and an adjusted net profit growth of 14.3% [1][9] - The core OTA business is performing well, with OTA revenue expected to grow by 14.9% year-on-year in Q3, driven by strong growth in accommodation booking and transportation services [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management has been completed, enhancing the company's supply chain and positioning it among the top 10 hotel management companies in China [3][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 revenue is projected to grow by 9.8% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 14.3% [1][9] - The OTA business is anticipated to see a 14.9% increase in revenue, with accommodation bookings expected to rise by 14.5% and transportation services by 9.5% [2][10] Business Segments - The OTA segment is expected to benefit from a combination of online market penetration and international business growth, while the vacation segment is under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 11% due to low outbound travel willingness in Southeast Asia [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management is expected to positively impact profitability in the hotel management segment, with a focus on high-end brand expansion [3][11] Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 33.7 billion, 39.3 billion, and 45.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [4][5] - Revenue is expected to reach 11.896 billion in 2023, growing to 24.712 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve resilient revenue growth in Q3, with a projected year-on-year revenue increase of 9.8% and an adjusted net profit growth of 14.3% [1][9] - The core OTA business is performing well, with OTA revenue expected to grow by 14.9% year-on-year in Q3, driven by strong growth in accommodation booking and transportation services [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management has been completed, enhancing the company's supply chain and positioning it among the top 10 hotel management companies in China [3][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 revenue is projected to grow by 9.8% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 14.3% [1][9] - The OTA business is anticipated to see a 14.9% increase in revenue, with accommodation bookings expected to rise by 14.5% and transportation services by 9.5% [2][10] Business Segments - The OTA segment is expected to benefit from a combination of online market penetration and international business growth, while the vacation segment is under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 11% due to low outbound travel willingness in Southeast Asia [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management is expected to positively impact profitability, with the company now managing over 2,700 hotels and a significant expansion in high-end hotel offerings [3][11] Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 33.7 billion, 39.3 billion, and 45.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [4][5] - Revenue is expected to reach 11.896 billion in 2023, growing to 24.712 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12% [5][16]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Ctrip's founders are reducing their holdings, with significant sales planned by both the chairman and the president, while the company shows strong financial performance and a robust recovery in international travel [1][2][3] Group 2 - Ctrip's founder and chairman, Liang Jianzhang, plans to sell 1 million ADS, valued at approximately $7.375 million, marking his first disclosure of a reduction plan since 2025 [1] - Co-founder and president, Fan Min, has also submitted a reduction plan to sell 70,000 ADS, valued at about $454.44 million, and has made multiple reductions throughout the year totaling approximately $30.694 million [1] - As of February 28, 2025, the core management's shareholding has increased, with Liang holding over 36.47 million shares (5.3% ownership) and CEO Sun Jie holding over 14.2 million shares (2.1% ownership) [1] Group 3 - Institutional shareholders have seen notable changes, with Baidu reducing its stake to 45.95 million shares (7.0% ownership), while Capital World Investors also decreased its holdings [2] - BlackRock has emerged as a major shareholder with over 34.81 million shares (5.3% ownership), matching Liang Jianzhang's stake [2] Group 4 - Ctrip reported a strong Q2 2025 performance with net revenue reaching 14.8 billion RMB, a 16% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by the accommodation booking segment, which saw a 21% increase [2] - The international OTA platform showed a robust recovery, with ticket bookings up over 60% year-on-year and inbound travel bookings doubling [3] Group 5 - Ctrip's board approved a share repurchase plan of up to $5 billion, following a previous repurchase of approximately $400 million in ADS [3] - R&D investment in Q2 2025 reached 3.5 billion RMB, a 17% increase, representing 24% of the net revenue, indicating a commitment to innovation and market leadership [3] Group 6 - As of the latest report, Ctrip's stock price is $71.23, with a total market capitalization of $46.556 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 4.25% [3]