机构：华创证券 研究员：饶临风/曹锦瑜 事项：携程集团发布2025 年三季报 公司于2025 年三季度实现营业收入183.7 亿元，yoy+15.5%；毛利率81.7%，yoy-0.7pcts；营业利润55.7 亿元，yoy+ 11.3%；净利润198.9 亿元，yoy+194.0%，主要系三季度处置部分投资带来利润增量。 评论： 住宿预订业务营收增速超预期。营收分拆看，住宿预订业务营收80.5 亿元，yoy+18.3%；交通票务收入 63.1 亿元，yoy+11.6%；旅游度假业务营收16.1 亿元，yoy+3.1%；商旅管理业务营收7.6 亿元， 185.4/210.5/242.9 亿元）。参考可比公司估值，给予公司2026 年20×PE，目标市值4524 亿港元，对应目 标价635 港元/股，对应空间12.3%，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：海外业务扩张不及预期；国内需求增长放缓；行业竞争加剧；地缘政治风险。 国际业务高增持续。2025 年三季度，国际OTA 平台总预订同比增长约60%，入境旅游预订同比增长超 100%，出境酒店和机票预订达到2019 年同期的140%。其中，亚太地区贡献主要增长，三季度 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve resilient revenue growth in Q3, with a projected year-on-year revenue increase of 9.8% and an adjusted net profit growth of 14.3% [1][9] - The core OTA business is performing well, with OTA revenue expected to grow by 14.9% year-on-year in Q3, driven by strong growth in accommodation booking and transportation services [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management has been completed, enhancing the company's supply chain and positioning it among the top 10 hotel management companies in China [3][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 revenue is projected to grow by 9.8% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 14.3% [1][9] - The OTA business is anticipated to see a 14.9% increase in revenue, with accommodation bookings expected to rise by 14.5% and transportation services by 9.5% [2][10] Business Segments - The OTA segment is expected to benefit from a combination of online market penetration and international business growth, while the vacation segment is under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 11% due to low outbound travel willingness in Southeast Asia [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management is expected to positively impact profitability in the hotel management segment, with a focus on high-end brand expansion [3][11] Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 33.7 billion, 39.3 billion, and 45.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [4][5] - Revenue is expected to reach 11.896 billion in 2023, growing to 24.712 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve resilient revenue growth in Q3, with a projected year-on-year revenue increase of 9.8% and an adjusted net profit growth of 14.3% [1][9] - The core OTA business is performing well, with OTA revenue expected to grow by 14.9% year-on-year in Q3, driven by strong growth in accommodation booking and transportation services [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management has been completed, enhancing the company's supply chain and positioning it among the top 10 hotel management companies in China [3][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 revenue is projected to grow by 9.8% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 14.3% [1][9] - The OTA business is anticipated to see a 14.9% increase in revenue, with accommodation bookings expected to rise by 14.5% and transportation services by 9.5% [2][10] Business Segments - The OTA segment is expected to benefit from a combination of online market penetration and international business growth, while the vacation segment is under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 11% due to low outbound travel willingness in Southeast Asia [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management is expected to positively impact profitability, with the company now managing over 2,700 hotels and a significant expansion in high-end hotel offerings [3][11] Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 33.7 billion, 39.3 billion, and 45.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [4][5] - Revenue is expected to reach 11.896 billion in 2023, growing to 24.712 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12% [5][16]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Ctrip's founders are reducing their holdings, with significant sales planned by both the chairman and the president, while the company shows strong financial performance and a robust recovery in international travel [1][2][3] Group 2 - Ctrip's founder and chairman, Liang Jianzhang, plans to sell 1 million ADS, valued at approximately $7.375 million, marking his first disclosure of a reduction plan since 2025 [1] - Co-founder and president, Fan Min, has also submitted a reduction plan to sell 70,000 ADS, valued at about $454.44 million, and has made multiple reductions throughout the year totaling approximately $30.694 million [1] - As of February 28, 2025, the core management's shareholding has increased, with Liang holding over 36.47 million shares (5.3% ownership) and CEO Sun Jie holding over 14.2 million shares (2.1% ownership) [1] Group 3 - Institutional shareholders have seen notable changes, with Baidu reducing its stake to 45.95 million shares (7.0% ownership), while Capital World Investors also decreased its holdings [2] - BlackRock has emerged as a major shareholder with over 34.81 million shares (5.3% ownership), matching Liang Jianzhang's stake [2] Group 4 - Ctrip reported a strong Q2 2025 performance with net revenue reaching 14.8 billion RMB, a 16% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by the accommodation booking segment, which saw a 21% increase [2] - The international OTA platform showed a robust recovery, with ticket bookings up over 60% year-on-year and inbound travel bookings doubling [3] Group 5 - Ctrip's board approved a share repurchase plan of up to $5 billion, following a previous repurchase of approximately $400 million in ADS [3] - R&D investment in Q2 2025 reached 3.5 billion RMB, a 17% increase, representing 24% of the net revenue, indicating a commitment to innovation and market leadership [3] Group 6 - As of the latest report, Ctrip's stock price is $71.23, with a total market capitalization of $46.556 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 4.25% [3]

Core Insights - Tongcheng Travel reported Q2 revenue of 4.669 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, significantly slowing from 48.1% in the same period last year [2] - The adjusted EBITDA margin rose to a record high of 25.4% compared to 21.5% in the same period last year, while the adjusted net profit margin increased to 16.6% from 15.5% [2] - The company achieved a cumulative service user count of 1.99 billion by the end of Q2, a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, with paid users reaching a new high of 252 million [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tongcheng Travel achieved revenue of 9.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5% [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first half was 2.34 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.2% [2] - Adjusted net profit for the first half reached 1.56 billion yuan [2] Business Segments - The accommodation booking business showed relative resilience, with revenue growing by 15.2% year-on-year [2] - Revenue from outbound travel groups to Southeast Asia declined due to safety concerns [2]