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9月项目开盘去化率同比上涨,居民中长贷同比多增
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-19 11:38
Investment Rating - The report suggests a low valuation in the real estate sector, recommending to accumulate real estate stocks on dips [5]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with A-share real estate down by 2.3% and Hong Kong real estate down by 2.8% in the week of October 11-17 [1]. - The land market's premium rate is at a low level, with an average premium rate of 3% for residential land transactions in 300 cities [1]. - New housing sales in 47 cities totaled 402 million square meters, showing a week-on-week increase of 165% but a year-on-year decrease of 20% [2]. - The average opening sales rate for projects in September increased by 10 percentage points year-on-year to 39% [3]. - The new long-term loans for residents in September increased by 250 billion yuan, indicating a rebound in financing [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - A-share real estate sector ranked 15th with a decline of 2.3%, while Hong Kong real estate ranked 8th with a decline of 2.8% [1][17]. - The property service and management index in Hong Kong fell by 2.4%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 3.7% [22]. Land Market - In the week of October 11-17, 2025, the total area of residential land sold in 300 cities was 859 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 26% but a year-on-year decrease of 46% [25]. - The cumulative area of residential land sold from the beginning of 2025 to now is 32,117 million square meters, down 10.2% year-on-year [25]. New Housing Sales - In the week of October 11-17, 2025, new housing sales in 47 cities totaled 402 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 165% but a year-on-year decrease of 20% [32]. - Sales in first-tier cities increased by 182% week-on-week but decreased by 31% year-on-year [35]. Second-hand Housing Sales - In the same week, second-hand housing sales in 22 cities totaled 266 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 182% but a year-on-year decrease of 18% [41]. - First-tier cities saw a week-on-week increase of 181% but a year-on-year decrease of 21% [41]. Financing Trends - The new long-term loans for residents in September amounted to 250 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 200 billion yuan [4][14]. - The cumulative new long-term loans from January to September decreased by 13.6% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous months [15].