地方债二级市场

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地方债周报:中短期地方债二级利差收窄-20250713
CMS· 2025-07-13 13:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the net financing of local bonds increased, with long - term issuance accounting for a higher proportion, and the weighted average issuance spread widened. Also, the secondary spread of medium - and long - term local bonds narrowed, and the trading volume and turnover rate declined [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, the issuance of local bonds was 231.8 billion yuan, the repayment was 121.6 billion yuan, and the net financing was 110.2 billion yuan. The issuance included 14.5 billion yuan of new general bonds, 64 billion yuan of new special bonds, 82.9 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 70.4 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance of 10 - year local bonds accounted for the highest proportion (41%), and the issuance of 10 - year and above accounted for 75%, an increase compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds were 15%, 41%, 7%, 7%, and 20% respectively, with the 15 - year issuance proportion decreasing by about 12 percentage points [1][11]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: This week, 28.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1.8246 trillion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou plan to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 114.8 billion yuan, 111.3 billion yuan, and 105.9 billion yuan respectively [2][14]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local bonds this week was 10.9bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year local bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 18.3bp. Except for the 5 - year local bonds, whose weighted average issuance spread narrowed, the spreads of other terms widened. Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Gansu, and Guangdong had relatively high weighted average issuance spreads, exceeding 12bp, while Jilin had a relatively low spread [1][23]. - **Raised Funds Allocation**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (30%), transportation infrastructure (20%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 11.3% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.3% [2][26]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 30 regions have disclosed their local bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, totaling 2.6041 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in July is 126.28 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter is 164.66 billion yuan and 95.75 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local bonds is 251.2 billion yuan, the repayment is 100.7 billion yuan, and the net financing is 150.5 billion yuan, a 40.3 - billion - yuan increase from this week [3][28]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year local bonds were advantageous, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 3 - year local bonds narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year local bonds were 16.5bp, 15.6bp, and 15.4bp respectively. In terms of regions, the secondary spreads of local bonds over 20 - year and 15 - 20 - year in all types of regions were relatively high, and the 10 - 15 - year local bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high spreads [5][32]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds decreased compared to last week. The local bonds of Fujian, Hunan, and Tianjin had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local bonds this week reached 377.8 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.73%. Hunan, Guangdong, and Shandong had large trading volumes, reaching 33.5 billion yuan, 30.5 billion yuan, and 28.4 billion yuan respectively. The turnover rates of Fujian, Hunan, and Tianjin were all above 1.3% [5][37].