1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, fiscal policy exerted force in advance, supporting macro - economic stability and local debt resolution. The report focuses on the characteristics of local government bonds from the beginning of the year to the end of the third quarter [9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Local Debt Primary Issuance Characteristics - **Feature 1: The theoretical early - batch quota for 2026 reaches 3.12 trillion yuan** - The early - batch quota for local government bonds may be normally issued at the end of the year, but formal issuance may occur after the new year. Based on 60% of the previous year's new quota, the theoretical scale of the early - batch quota for 2026 is 3.12 trillion yuan [10] - **Feature 2: Issuance and net financing scale reach a record high for the same period** - As of the third quarter of 2025, the local debt issuance scale reached 853.32 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 184.56 billion yuan. The net financing scale reached 615.18 billion yuan, an increase of 216.33 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024. The issuance of new general bonds was small and stable, while new special bonds were mainly issued in the first and third quarters [11][18] - **Feature 3: Issuance structure: The proportion of new special bonds has rebounded, and the proportion of refinancing special bonds has declined** - As of the third quarter of 2025, new special bonds and refinancing special bonds accounted for 43% and 33% respectively. The proportion of refinancing general bonds was 16%, and the proportion of new general bonds was 8% [22] - **Feature 4: The issuance rhythm of special bonds is advanced, and the issuance accelerated significantly in the third quarter** - As of September 2025, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds reached 367.72 billion yuan, the highest in history [24] - **Feature 5: Special new special bonds were issued beyond expectations, and the 2 - trillion - yuan implicit debt replacement is nearing completion** - As of the third quarter of 2025, special new special bonds exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, mainly for local debt resolution and local arrears clearance. The refinancing special bonds for replacing implicit debt reached 198.62 billion yuan [26] - **Feature 6: The issuance of land reserve special bonds is regionally concentrated, and there is still a gap between the actual issuance and the announced scale** - As of the third quarter of 2025, 10 provinces issued land reserve special bonds, with a total scale of 34.69 billion yuan. As of October 14, 2025, the announced land acquisition scale was 62.44 billion yuan [32] - **Feature 7: The proportion of the issuance scale of special bonds in "self - reviewed and self - issued" provinces has increased** - From 2020 - 2024, the proportion of the issuance scale of special bonds in the pilot areas was about 54%, and it rose to 64% as of the third quarter of 2025, possibly due to faster approval [37] - **Feature 8: The issuance term has been extended** - As of the third quarter of 2025, the average issuance term of local government bonds was 14.60 years, an increase of 1.37 years compared to 2024. The proportion of local government bonds with a term of over 15 years increased in both scale and quantity [39][43] - **Feature 9: The issuance interest rate and spread rebounded in the third quarter** - As of the third quarter of 2025, the average issuance interest rate of local government bonds was 1.94%, and the average issuance spread was 14.22 basis points, a rebound of 5.74 basis points compared to 2024. The spread rose significantly from August to September [47] - **Feature 10: The spreads in various regions widened overall in the third quarter, and the differentiation was still obvious** - In the third quarter of 2025, the spreads in various regions widened, but the credit differentiation pattern between regions was still obvious, generally following the rule that "the stronger the fiscal strength, the lower the spread" [53] - **Feature 11: The spread of special refinancing bonds is higher than that of ordinary refinancing bonds** - The spread of special refinancing bonds is higher, mainly because the issuance term of special refinancing bonds is generally longer. Nationally, the spreads of special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds are 17.19BP and 17.75BP respectively, higher than those of ordinary refinancing bonds and ordinary new special bonds [55] 3.2 Local Debt Secondary Transaction Characteristics - **Feature 12: The trading volume increased, the trading price rose, and the turnover rate decreased** - As of the third quarter of 2025, the trading volume of local government bonds was 16.08 trillion yuan, an increase compared to the same period in 2024. The turnover rate was 3.53%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.17 percentage points, mainly due to the significant decline in the turnover rate of general bonds [59] 3.3 Local Debt Institutional Behavior Characteristics - **Feature 13: The market is still mainly in a buying state, but the buying volume and net buying amount have both decreased** - As of the third quarter, the market was still mainly in a buying state, but the buying volume and net buying amount decreased. Insurance was the largest buyer, and institutions such as large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and securities firms were net sellers [4]