1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper fluctuated higher, and domestic copper was slightly stronger. The US July durable goods orders initial value was -2.8% month - on - month, higher than expected and the previous value, but still in decline for the second consecutive month. Excluding transportation equipment, the orders increased by 3.8% year - on - year. LME, Comex, SHFE copper inventories all decreased. As the seasonal off - season nears its end, downstream orders are expected to pick up, and the low scrap copper production benefits refined copper substitution. The US may expand the key minerals list, which could re - evaluate copper resources. Although there are concerns about US copper inventory impacting overseas, domestic post - off - season demand may drive LME de - stocking and copper price stabilization, but the September peak season may be weaker than the first half of the year [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy were slightly stronger. Alumina prices fell, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots reached par. The resumption of alumina production increased, and the expectation of oversupply pressured prices. However, cost support strengthened due to factors like restricted ore mining. The inflow of domestic aluminum ingots decreased, and downstream stocking increased. Whether it's a cyclical inflection point needs further confirmation [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME and Shanghai nickel prices rose. LME and domestic inventories decreased. The Indonesian government shortened the mineral and coal production period. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless steel supply increased, with some inventory pressure, but the cost of nickel - iron rose. Ternary demand in the new energy sector was strengthening, and the supply of raw materials was relatively tight. Overall, the fundamentals changed little, and prices were still in a volatile range [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper and domestic copper showed different trends. Macro data in the US had mixed impacts. Inventory decreased in multiple markets. Demand is expected to improve as the off - season ends. The potential expansion of the US key minerals list may affect copper value. There are concerns about US copper inventory, but domestic demand may drive price recovery [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina was weak, while other aluminum products were slightly stronger. Price, inventory, and supply - demand factors all influenced the market. The balance between supply resumption and cost support determined the price trend. The change in aluminum ingot inventory needs further observation [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Prices rose, and inventories decreased. Policy changes in Indonesia, stable nickel ore prices, and different trends in stainless steel and new energy sectors all contributed to the overall market situation, with prices remaining volatile [2][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased, and the premium decreased. The price of scrap copper and the refined - scrap price difference also changed. Inventory decreased in LME and SHFE. Other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and import profit also showed fluctuations [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead and related products increased. Lead concentrate prices and processing fees had some changes. LME and SHFE inventories decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in different regions and the premium changed. Raw material prices and downstream processing fees were relatively stable. LME and SHFE inventories showed different trends, and the social inventory of alumina decreased [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of electrolytic nickel increased slightly. Nickel ore, nickel - iron, and stainless steel prices were mostly stable. The prices of new energy - related products decreased. LME and SHFE inventories decreased, and the social inventory of nickel increased [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased slightly. LME and SHFE inventories changed in different directions, and the social inventory increased. Other indicators such as premiums and processing fees remained stable [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased slightly. LME and SHFE inventories decreased. The price of tin concentrate decreased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][15]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][18][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has extensive experience in commodity research and has won multiple awards. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research, both providing valuable reports and services to clients [49][50].