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地方债持续扩容,补充了多少财力?
Huaan Securities· 2025-08-21 03:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - With the start of the debt resolution cycle and the implementation of debt resolution resources, the available financial resources of local governments have significantly improved, and the mitigation of systematic risks related to local debts and urban investment debts continues. There is no need to overly worry about default risks at present, and it is advisable to explore high - coupon assets in non - popular regions. However, as debt resolution resources are gradually implemented, the potential early repayment pressure is also being released, and attention should be paid to preventing capital loss risks caused by face - value or discounted redemptions [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Replacement - type Local Debt - The issuance of special refinancing bonds this year is coming to an end, and the issuance scale is significantly front - loaded. As of August 20, the total scale of issued and to - be - issued special refinancing bonds is 19366.57 billion yuan, accounting for about 96.8% of the planned scale (2 trillion yuan). Only Hunan, Henan, Guizhou, and Hubei still have to - be - issued quotas. About 1.8 trillion yuan was issued in the first half of the year [1] Special Newly - added Debt - Special newly - added special bonds have taken over and are gaining momentum, with the cumulative scale this year approaching 1 trillion yuan. The cumulative scale of issued and to - be - issued special newly - added special bonds this year is 9622.83 billion yuan, exceeding last year's full - year level (8777.76 billion yuan). Beijing, Guangdong (including Shenzhen), and Shanghai issued this type of bond for the first time this year. Jiangsu is the only province with a cumulative scale exceeding 100 billion yuan this year, and provinces with a scale exceeding 50 billion yuan also include Yunnan, Sichuan, and Hunan. The issuance peak of special newly - added special bonds occurred in the last three months, with a monthly issuance scale of over 20 billion yuan [2] Local Financial Resources Supplement - As of the end of June 2025, the total balance of local fiscal deposits in 29 provinces and municipalities that have disclosed relevant data is 5965 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate as high as 28.8%, the highest in recent years. Eight provinces have a growth rate of over 50%, among which Liaoning, Gansu, and Shandong have relatively high growth rates, all exceeding 70%. Since the fourth quarter of 2023 when the debt resolution cycle started, the balance of fiscal deposits in provinces across the country has generally shown an upward trend, and the growth rate from February to July this year was above 10%, except for January due to staggered factors. For example, Tianjin's fiscal deposit balance has reached a record high for the same period in most cases [3]