监测周报 2025 年 9 月 22 日—2025 年 9 月 28 日 总第 359 期 2025 年第 36 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 5000 亿政策性金融工具落地， 有望拉动 2-5 万亿基建投资 鲁 璐 llu@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 35 期】河南专项债及专项贷款协力"清 欠"，第二批置换仅剩 2 省未发行完 2025- 09-28 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 34 期】超六成融资平台实现退出，甘肃 出台全国首个省级 PPP 存量项目方案 2025- 09-18 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 33 期】专项债会计处理新规强化资金监 管,山东力争 10 月底前完成专项债发行， 2025-09-11 ——地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年第 36 期 本期要点 ◼ 要闻点评 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 32 期】宁夏、江西加快推进"退 ...

Core Viewpoint - Local government debt is a crucial tool for macroeconomic stability in China, with significant growth and expansion in its scope over the past five years, increasing from approximately 25 trillion yuan at the end of 2020 to nearly 50 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [3][4] Group 1: Local Government Debt Growth - The scale of local government debt has doubled, with annual new debt limits reaching record highs, effectively bridging local fiscal gaps [3] - The areas of investment for special bonds have expanded from seven key sectors in 2020 to a comprehensive negative list management approach, providing flexible support for local development [3] Group 2: Debt Risk Management - The government is increasing support for resolving local government debt risks, with new policies being the most significant measures in recent years [4] - A resolution was passed to approve the increase of local government debt limits to replace hidden debts, marking the official start of debt resolution efforts [4] Group 3: Economic Transition and Debt Management - The transition from debt-driven investment to technology and consumption-driven growth is ongoing, with recommendations to optimize debt resolution methods and increase debt limits [4][6] - The relationship between debt growth and economic growth must be dynamically managed to ensure sustainable development [6] Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Local Debt - Local debt plays a vital role in making fiscal policy more proactive, especially in the current economic climate [5] - There is a need for a balanced approach to ensure that debt scales align with economic growth and fiscal capacity, avoiding disorderly expansion [7] Group 5: Performance Evaluation and Efficiency - A dual-dimensional performance evaluation system should be established to assess both economic and social benefits of debt-funded projects [8] - Ensuring the effective and efficient use of debt funds is crucial for improving investment returns [8] Group 6: Central Government's Role - The central government has room to increase leverage to alleviate local government debt pressure and enhance debt sustainability [9] - Special bonds should be managed through a negative list approach, with exploration of positive encouragement lists to broaden investment areas [9] Group 7: Future Fiscal Strategy - The fiscal policy for the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" should be more proactive, with suggestions to increase the deficit rate to around 5% and a broad deficit scale of 16 trillion yuan [11] - Local debt should align with national strategic goals to support high-quality economic development, focusing on key projects and emerging industries [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of September 19, 2025, the debt - resolution varieties and special treasury bonds of government bonds are nearly issued, with about 2.1 trillion yuan of remaining varieties to be issued, indicating fiscal room for more efforts. If there is an increase in government bond issuance in Q4, there are several possibilities, and different issuance methods have different requirements and limitations [2][32]. - The urgency of domestic interest - rate cuts at the end of the year is not strong. The 14D reverse repurchase is expected to support a smooth quarter - end transition, and the operation may be more flexible. The Fed's interest - rate cut opens up space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the domestic policy is still "domestically - oriented" [3][57]. - From late September to early October, in order to achieve the annual growth target of 5%, pro - growth policies may disrupt the bond market. For allocation portfolios, when the 10y treasury bond yield is around 1.8%, it gradually becomes cost - effective; trading portfolios need to be cautious [4][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government Bond Classification, Progress, and Outlook 3.1.1 Types of Debt - Resolution Local Bonds - **Replacement Bonds**: General replacement bonds include replacement bonds (used from 2015 - 2019) and replacement - type refinancing special bonds (used from 2024 - 2026). The 2025 quota of replacement bonds is nearly issued. The replacement bonds in 2015 - 2018 issued 12.2 trillion yuan, and in 2019, 1579 billion yuan was issued. From 2024, the replacement - type refinancing special bonds are used, with 2 trillion yuan per year from 2024 - 2026, and as of September 19, 2025, 19747 billion yuan has been issued [14][19][20]. - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: Since 2020, they have become a new tool for local government debt resolution. The issuance can be divided into four stages, with a total issuance of about 31298 billion yuan. As of September 19, 2025, the 4000 - billion - yuan quota added in October 2024 has accumulated an issuance of 3981 billion yuan, and the existing quota is nearly issued [24][25][26]. - **Special Newly - Added Special Bonds**: Some newly - added special bonds not disclosing "one case and two books" are mainly used for resolving implicit debts. From 2024 - 2028, there is an 8000 - billion - yuan quota per year. As of September 19, 2025, 11506 billion yuan has been issued, and the excess may be used to repay government arrears to enterprises [27][31]. 3.1.2 Current Issuance Progress of Government Bond Varieties and Q4 Outlook - As of September 19, 2025, debt - resolution varieties and special treasury bonds are nearly issued, and the remaining varieties to be issued are about 2.1 trillion yuan. If there is an increase in government bond issuance in Q4, for treasury bonds, raising the quota requires approval from the National People's Congress, and there may be a rush - to - issue phenomenon in advance. Using the remaining quota does not require approval from the National People's Congress, but the current space is limited. For local bonds, the remaining quota and replacement bond quota have been allocated, but issuance requires fiscal approval [2][32][36]. 3.2 Monetary Policy 3.2.1 How to View the Tightening of Funds During the Tax Period and at the End of the Month? - In mid - September, due to the central bank's restrained liquidity injection, tax payments, and the freezing of funds for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, the funds tightened briefly. Looking forward, funds may gradually ease in the last 7 days of the quarter, and the risk of fund fluctuations is relatively limited [44][47]. 3.2.2 How to Understand the Reform of the 14D Reverse Repurchase Bidding Method? - The 14D reverse repurchase bidding method is changed to multiple - rate bidding, which further strengthens the policy - rate status of the 7D reverse repurchase. The theoretical price is currently 1.55%. The 14D reverse repurchase in September is expected to support a smooth quarter - end transition, and subsequent operations may be more flexible [50][51][52]. 3.2.3 Will China Follow the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut? - The Fed's interest - rate cut opens up space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the domestic policy is still "domestically - oriented". The urgency of domestic interest - rate cuts at the end of the year is not strong, and the focus is on structural policy tools to boost broad credit [57][59][60]. 3.3 Bond Market Strategy - From late September to early October, pro - growth policies may disrupt the bond market. For allocation portfolios, when the 10y treasury bond yield is around 1.8%, it gradually becomes cost - effective; trading portfolios need to be cautious, and appropriate strategies include small - band micro - operations, short - credit coupon income, and waiting for better opportunities [61][65][66]. - Some varieties show cost - effectiveness and can be gradually entered during the adjustment process. According to the three - factor interest - rate bond comparison analysis framework, continue to pay attention to the 6y CDB bonds, 7y local bonds, and 10y CDB bonds. Funds with stable liabilities can pay attention to 20y CDB bonds and 30y treasury bonds [67]. 3.4 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review 3.4.1 Funding Situation - The central bank conducted net OMO injections, and the funding situation was balanced but tight [81]. 3.4.2 Primary Issuance - The net financing of treasury bonds and local bonds decreased, while the net financing of policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [83]. 3.4.3 Benchmark Changes - The term spread of treasury bonds widened, and the term spread of CDB bonds narrowed. The short - end varieties of treasury bonds and CDB bonds performed better than the long - end varieties [78][88].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "6+4" local government debt resolution plan for 2024, which primarily targets the 14.3 trillion yuan of hidden debts recognized by the central government, emphasizing the need to address overdue payments to enterprises for cash flow recovery [1][9][10]. Summary by Sections Government Debt Classification - Government debt is classified into explicit debt (82.1 trillion yuan), recognized hidden debt (10.5 trillion yuan, reduced by 3.8 trillion yuan from 2023), government payment responsibilities, and debts of state-owned enterprises [2][11][12]. Incremental Policies for Debt Clearance - Key policies include allocating special bond quotas to clear enterprise overdue payments and allowing local bonds to support government-related costs in existing PPP projects [3][13][19]. Special Bonds for Overdue Payments - In 2024, 4.4 trillion yuan of new special bonds will be allocated to repay overdue payments, with an estimated 400 billion yuan specifically for this purpose. The average proportion of special bonds for clearing debts in seven provinces is 23%, with a national estimate of around 10% [3][14][15]. Changes in Special Bond Issuance - By now, provinces have issued approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in special bonds for debt clearance, exceeding initial plans by 400 billion yuan. There is a notable shift in issuance among provinces, with significant increases in regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong [3][15][17]. Distinction of Current Special Bonds - The current special bonds for enterprise overdue payments are distinct from previous allocations, focusing solely on overdue payments rather than mixing with other project costs [4][17][18]. Support for PPP Projects - Local bonds are now permitted to support government costs in existing PPP projects, which is crucial given the total government expenditure responsibility for PPP projects is projected to reach 14.34 trillion yuan by 2026 [5][19][20]. Land Purchase Bonds - Special bonds are also allowed for repurchasing idle land, with 3.131 billion yuan issued for this purpose, which helps alleviate local debt pressure [6][22][23]. Impact on Enterprises - Previous debt clearance policies have benefited infrastructure-related enterprises, but the transmission efficiency remains slow. The pressure on accounts receivable in small and micro enterprises continues to be the highest among industries [7][25][26]. Future Policy Directions - The article suggests that future policies will likely continue to focus on improving cash flow for enterprises and addressing overdue payments, with potential expansions in the scale of special bonds for these purposes [8][31][32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - With the start of the debt resolution cycle and the implementation of debt resolution resources, the available financial resources of local governments have significantly improved, and the mitigation of systematic risks related to local debts and urban investment debts continues. There is no need to overly worry about default risks at present, and it is advisable to explore high - coupon assets in non - popular regions. However, as debt resolution resources are gradually implemented, the potential early repayment pressure is also being released, and attention should be paid to preventing capital loss risks caused by face - value or discounted redemptions [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Replacement - type Local Debt - The issuance of special refinancing bonds this year is coming to an end, and the issuance scale is significantly front - loaded. As of August 20, the total scale of issued and to - be - issued special refinancing bonds is 19366.57 billion yuan, accounting for about 96.8% of the planned scale (2 trillion yuan). Only Hunan, Henan, Guizhou, and Hubei still have to - be - issued quotas. About 1.8 trillion yuan was issued in the first half of the year [1] Special Newly - added Debt - Special newly - added special bonds have taken over and are gaining momentum, with the cumulative scale this year approaching 1 trillion yuan. The cumulative scale of issued and to - be - issued special newly - added special bonds this year is 9622.83 billion yuan, exceeding last year's full - year level (8777.76 billion yuan). Beijing, Guangdong (including Shenzhen), and Shanghai issued this type of bond for the first time this year. Jiangsu is the only province with a cumulative scale exceeding 100 billion yuan this year, and provinces with a scale exceeding 50 billion yuan also include Yunnan, Sichuan, and Hunan. The issuance peak of special newly - added special bonds occurred in the last three months, with a monthly issuance scale of over 20 billion yuan [2] Local Financial Resources Supplement - As of the end of June 2025, the total balance of local fiscal deposits in 29 provinces and municipalities that have disclosed relevant data is 5965 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate as high as 28.8%, the highest in recent years. Eight provinces have a growth rate of over 50%, among which Liaoning, Gansu, and Shandong have relatively high growth rates, all exceeding 70%. Since the fourth quarter of 2023 when the debt resolution cycle started, the balance of fiscal deposits in provinces across the country has generally shown an upward trend, and the growth rate from February to July this year was above 10%, except for January due to staggered factors. For example, Tianjin's fiscal deposit balance has reached a record high for the same period in most cases [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the implications of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) being used as a means for the government to manage debt, suggesting that this reflects a lack of true market economy principles [1][2][14] - It raises concerns about the impact on minority shareholders, indicating that the profits of listed companies are being redirected for social purposes rather than for shareholder returns, which contradicts the fundamental purpose of these companies [14][16] - The article suggests that the government may be testing the waters with high-profile cases like Yangtze Power, potentially leading to broader applications if successful [2][19] Group 2 - There is a shift in taxation focus from circulation taxes to property taxes, indicating a new phase of taxing wealthier individuals and entities [4] - The article highlights the social responsibility initiatives of companies like Kweichow Moutai, which have contributed significantly to local development and education, suggesting a trend among corporations to engage in social welfare [5][19] - It mentions that the financial resources of SOEs are essentially state assets, implying that the interests of shareholders may not be prioritized in decision-making processes [16][19]

Group 1 - The overall fiscal operation in the first half of 2025 is stable, with general public budget expenditure reaching 14.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1][3] - National general public budget revenue is 11.56 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year [1] - The issuance of new local government general and special bonds amounts to 2.6 trillion yuan, aimed at supporting major projects in key areas [1][3] Group 2 - Tax revenue for the first half of 2025 is 9.29 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, but has shown a recovery with three consecutive months of growth starting from April [2] - Major tax categories such as domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax have seen increases of 2.8%, 1.7%, and 8% respectively [2] - Non-tax revenue for the first half of 2025 is 2.27 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, although the growth rate has decreased compared to the first quarter [2] Group 3 - Significant increases in spending on social security and employment (9.2%), education (5.9%), and scientific technology (9.1%) have been noted [3] - The issuance and utilization of bond funds have accelerated, with 2.43 trillion yuan spent from government fund budgets, leading to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure [3] - Central government transfer payments to local governments have reached 9.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.8% of the annual budget, which is an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Group 4 - The issuance of national bonds has reached a historical high of 7.88 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 20.55 billion yuan or 35.28% year-on-year [4] - The special bond issuance has progressed well, with 555 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special bonds issued, accelerating by 18 percentage points compared to the previous year [4] - The "old-for-new" consumption initiative has resulted in sales of 1.6 trillion yuan in various consumer goods, contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [4] Group 5 - The Ministry of Finance plans to arrange 2 trillion yuan in local government debt limits annually from 2024 to 2026 to support the replacement of existing hidden debts [5] - By the end of June 2025, 1.8 trillion yuan of the 2 trillion yuan replacement bonds for 2025 had been issued, with 1.44 trillion yuan already utilized [5] - The implementation of the replacement policy has alleviated liquidity pressure and facilitated the reform and transformation of financing platforms [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the characteristics of local government bonds in the first half of 2025, including primary issuance, secondary trading, and institutional behavior, aiming to provide a comprehensive review of the local government bond market in this period [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1.1. Local Government Bond Primary Issuance Characteristics - **Feature 1: Record - high issuance and net financing scale in the same period** - In H1 2025, the local government bond issuance scale reached 5490.2 billion yuan, the highest in the same period in the past decade. The net financing scale was 4413.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2540.8 billion yuan. The issuance of 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for replacing hidden debts was front - loaded, mainly concentrated in January - April, with the overall issuance progress close to 90% [10][13][15]. - **Feature 2: Issuance structure: New special bonds have the highest proportion, but the proportion is declining** - In H1 2025, new special bonds and refinancing special bonds accounted for 40% and 39% respectively, with issuance scales of 2160.7 billion yuan and 2150.2 billion yuan. The proportion of new special bonds slightly decreased, while that of refinancing special bonds increased. New general bonds accounted for the lowest at 8%, with an issuance scale of 452 billion yuan [19]. - **Feature 3: Special bond issuance rhythm: Overall progress is relatively stable** - In H1 2025, the issuance progress of new special bonds was relatively stable, with a relatively balanced monthly issuance scale compared to 2024. As of June 2025, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 21606.53 billion yuan, compared with 23008.50 billion yuan and 14934.68 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 and 2024 respectively [21]. - **Feature 4: The underlying logic of debt - resolution quota allocation is still the resolution of hidden debts** - Debt resolution remained the top priority in H1 2025. The issuance scale of local government bonds for debt resolution remained large, including 464.8 billion yuan of special new special bonds for debt resolution and 1794.4 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts. The proportion of key areas in local government bonds for debt resolution in H1 2025 was 31%, the same as in 2024 but significantly lower than the 66% in 2023 [22][27]. - **Feature 5: Land reserve special bonds restarted, but there is a gap between actual issuance and announced scale** - In H1 2025, 9 provinces (including municipalities directly under the Central Government) issued land reserve special bonds, with a total scale of 192.5 billion yuan. As of mid - July 2025, the announced land acquisition scale was 426.2 billion yuan [30]. - **Feature 6: The proportion of special bond issuance scale in "self - review and self - issuance" provinces has increased** - The proportion of new special bond issuance scale in "self - review and self - issuance" provinces increased significantly. From 2020 - 2023, the proportion of special bond issuance scale in the pilot areas was about 53%, and in H1 2025, it rose to 69%, possibly related to the faster approval of special bonds in these provinces [34]. - **Feature 7: Issuance term has been extended** - In H1 2025, the average issuance term of local government bonds was 14.69 years, an extension of 1.46 years compared to 2024. The proportion of local government bonds with a term of over 15 years in terms of both scale and quantity increased [38][43]. - **Feature 8: Issuance cost has decreased, while issuance spread has widened** - In H1 2025, the issuance spread of local government bonds rebounded to 12.22BP, an increase of 3.73BP compared to 2024, and the average issuance interest rate decreased to 1.89%, a decrease of 0.39pct compared to 2024. The "flying" phenomenon of local government bonds was significant in the first half of the year, mainly in 30 - year bonds [46][48]. - **Feature 9: Regional issuance spreads continue to diverge in a low - interest - rate environment** - In H1 2025, regional issuance spreads continued to diverge significantly, following the rule that "the stronger the fiscal strength, the lower the spread". Economically strong regions maintained low spreads, while some less - developed regions had high spreads [50]. - **Feature 10: The spread of special refinancing bonds is higher than that of ordinary refinancing bonds** - The spread of special refinancing bonds is higher than that of ordinary refinancing bonds, mainly because the issuance term of special refinancing bonds is generally longer. Nationally, the spreads of special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds are 16.53BP and 13.96BP respectively, higher than those of ordinary refinancing bonds (9.56BP) and ordinary new special bonds (12.55BP) [52]. 1.2. Local Government Bond Secondary Trading Characteristics - **Feature 11: Trading volume has increased, trading price has risen, and turnover rate has decreased** - In H1 2025, the trading volume of local government bonds was 10.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 1690.3 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024. The turnover rate was 3.65%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04 percentage points, mainly due to the significant decline in the turnover rate of general bonds. The trading volume and turnover rate of special bonds are higher than those of general bonds. Regionally, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong have higher turnover rates [55][61]. 1.3. Local Government Bond Institutional Behavior Characteristics - **Feature 13: There are differences in institutional buying and selling behaviors and term preferences** - From the buying side, insurance, funds, and wealth management prefer to sell short - term bonds and buy long - term bonds, while rural commercial banks prefer to buy bonds with a term of 7 - 20 years. From the selling side, large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and securities firms were net sellers in H1 2025. Large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks prefer to buy short - term and sell long - term bonds, while securities firms reduced their holdings across all terms [3].

Key Points - The issuance of replacement bonds for hidden debt reached approximately 1.8 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating a rapid and early issuance trend [1] - The issuance of special new bonds for debt resolution is projected to be 800 billion yuan annually for five years starting in 2024, with 4.623 billion yuan issued in the first half of this year [1][2] - The total amount of local bonds issued for debt resolution accounted for 41% of the total issuance in the first half of the year [1] - The issuance of replacement bonds helps to make hidden debts visible, thereby reducing the scale of existing hidden debts and improving the overall debt structure [2] - Local governments are increasingly using special bonds to repay overdue payments to enterprises, with specific allocations made in regions like Yunnan [2][3] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of resolving overdue payments to enterprises, particularly for private enterprises, to enhance their resilience against risks [3][4] - There is a call for accelerating the transformation of local investment companies to reduce reliance on local governments and improve their market competitiveness [4][5]

Group 1: Consumption Trends - Consumption has led the market since April and year-to-date, with personal care products, animal health, feed, snacks, and cosmetics showing the highest gains[1] - Recommended consumption sectors include apparel, automobiles (including two-wheeled electric vehicles), retail, food, beauty care, aquaculture, feed, and snacks since the Spring Strategy Outlook on February 12[1] Group 2: Fiscal Impact on Consumption - Retail sales growth is highly elastic to fiscal spending cycles, with elasticity increasing during fiscal expansion periods[2] - The expected fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is around 4%, up from approximately 3% in 2024, indicating a significant increase in central government spending[21] - Local government debt pressures have historically suppressed consumption, but debt relief efforts are expected to drive internal recovery in consumption, particularly in high-debt provinces[2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests focusing on domestic consumption sectors, technology growth, cost improvement drivers, and structural opportunities abroad[32] - Recommended sectors include domestic consumption (apparel, automobiles, retail, food, beauty care), technology (AI, robotics, semiconductors), and cost-driven sectors (aquaculture, energy metals)[32]