[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 地方债持续扩容，补充了多少财力？ [首席Table_Author] 分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com 报告日期： 2025-08-21 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 置换类地方债发行渐进尾声，成效几何？ 年内特殊再融资债发行已近收尾，发行规模明显前置。从发行情况来看， 截至 8 月 20 日，年内已披露的已发待发特殊再融资债规模合计 19366.57 亿元，占计划规模（2 万亿）的比重约为 96.8%，仅湖南（200 亿元）、河 南（175 亿元）、贵州（84 亿元）与湖北（174 亿元）仍存在待发额度，其 中上半年累计发行约 1.8 万亿，发行节奏明显前置。 特殊新增债接棒发力，年内累计规模近万亿元。特殊新增专项债方面，年 内累计已发待发规模为 9622.83 亿元，已超过去年全年水平（8777.76 亿 元），其中北京、广东（含深圳）与上海在今年之前并未发行过该品种，均 为各区域内首次发行，其他省份中，江苏省年内累计规模 1189 亿 ...

岁神 是为ZF化债的长江电力带崩了大盘吗？ 政府没钱修船闸，然后就向国企化缘了，如果国企是ZF百分比持股那没说得，但还有那么多个人 股东的嘛。 这算另一种形式的化债吗？ 这件事虽然看起来不大，但传递信号却不太好。所以对于国企而言，哪有啥真正的市场经济，只 是ZF的第二钱袋子。 所以这波牛市，大家永远不要入戏太深，时刻提醒自己，这波人造水牛主要是用来化债的，而不 是让金融消费者爽呆呆的。 hillstar 经济增量少的时候，主要税种就要从流通税转向财产税了。现在是开始向各种大户豪强征税的阶 段。 这事挺迷的，因为200亿不是没有其他解决的方案，学习茅台搞特别分红呀。一年不够就分两年 咯，分红出去的钱凑够两百亿，政府想干嘛干嘛谁也管不着，加大分红力度对红利还是大利好。 zf里的高人不可能不知道这样做的负面影响，可还是这么做了，那就有点意思了，有点投石问路 的味道。先拿关注度高的长点试点如果顺利的话后续可以批量复制，珠玉在前，长电都过了其他 的更简单。化斋新思路。 鼎级外星人 长江是自然河流，以前一直可以通航，并不是巴拿马苏伊士那样的人工运河， 当然，没有三峡大坝之前，万吨级船舶无法到达重庆等上游， 但对于中小船舶 ...

Group 1 - The overall fiscal operation in the first half of 2025 is stable, with general public budget expenditure reaching 14.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1][3] - National general public budget revenue is 11.56 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year [1] - The issuance of new local government general and special bonds amounts to 2.6 trillion yuan, aimed at supporting major projects in key areas [1][3] Group 2 - Tax revenue for the first half of 2025 is 9.29 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, but has shown a recovery with three consecutive months of growth starting from April [2] - Major tax categories such as domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax have seen increases of 2.8%, 1.7%, and 8% respectively [2] - Non-tax revenue for the first half of 2025 is 2.27 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, although the growth rate has decreased compared to the first quarter [2] Group 3 - Significant increases in spending on social security and employment (9.2%), education (5.9%), and scientific technology (9.1%) have been noted [3] - The issuance and utilization of bond funds have accelerated, with 2.43 trillion yuan spent from government fund budgets, leading to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure [3] - Central government transfer payments to local governments have reached 9.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.8% of the annual budget, which is an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Group 4 - The issuance of national bonds has reached a historical high of 7.88 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 20.55 billion yuan or 35.28% year-on-year [4] - The special bond issuance has progressed well, with 555 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special bonds issued, accelerating by 18 percentage points compared to the previous year [4] - The "old-for-new" consumption initiative has resulted in sales of 1.6 trillion yuan in various consumer goods, contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [4] Group 5 - The Ministry of Finance plans to arrange 2 trillion yuan in local government debt limits annually from 2024 to 2026 to support the replacement of existing hidden debts [5] - By the end of June 2025, 1.8 trillion yuan of the 2 trillion yuan replacement bonds for 2025 had been issued, with 1.44 trillion yuan already utilized [5] - The implementation of the replacement policy has alleviated liquidity pressure and facilitated the reform and transformation of financing platforms [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the characteristics of local government bonds in the first half of 2025, including primary issuance, secondary trading, and institutional behavior, aiming to provide a comprehensive review of the local government bond market in this period [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1.1. Local Government Bond Primary Issuance Characteristics - **Feature 1: Record - high issuance and net financing scale in the same period** - In H1 2025, the local government bond issuance scale reached 5490.2 billion yuan, the highest in the same period in the past decade. The net financing scale was 4413.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2540.8 billion yuan. The issuance of 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for replacing hidden debts was front - loaded, mainly concentrated in January - April, with the overall issuance progress close to 90% [10][13][15]. - **Feature 2: Issuance structure: New special bonds have the highest proportion, but the proportion is declining** - In H1 2025, new special bonds and refinancing special bonds accounted for 40% and 39% respectively, with issuance scales of 2160.7 billion yuan and 2150.2 billion yuan. The proportion of new special bonds slightly decreased, while that of refinancing special bonds increased. New general bonds accounted for the lowest at 8%, with an issuance scale of 452 billion yuan [19]. - **Feature 3: Special bond issuance rhythm: Overall progress is relatively stable** - In H1 2025, the issuance progress of new special bonds was relatively stable, with a relatively balanced monthly issuance scale compared to 2024. As of June 2025, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 21606.53 billion yuan, compared with 23008.50 billion yuan and 14934.68 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 and 2024 respectively [21]. - **Feature 4: The underlying logic of debt - resolution quota allocation is still the resolution of hidden debts** - Debt resolution remained the top priority in H1 2025. The issuance scale of local government bonds for debt resolution remained large, including 464.8 billion yuan of special new special bonds for debt resolution and 1794.4 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts. The proportion of key areas in local government bonds for debt resolution in H1 2025 was 31%, the same as in 2024 but significantly lower than the 66% in 2023 [22][27]. - **Feature 5: Land reserve special bonds restarted, but there is a gap between actual issuance and announced scale** - In H1 2025, 9 provinces (including municipalities directly under the Central Government) issued land reserve special bonds, with a total scale of 192.5 billion yuan. As of mid - July 2025, the announced land acquisition scale was 426.2 billion yuan [30]. - **Feature 6: The proportion of special bond issuance scale in "self - review and self - issuance" provinces has increased** - The proportion of new special bond issuance scale in "self - review and self - issuance" provinces increased significantly. From 2020 - 2023, the proportion of special bond issuance scale in the pilot areas was about 53%, and in H1 2025, it rose to 69%, possibly related to the faster approval of special bonds in these provinces [34]. - **Feature 7: Issuance term has been extended** - In H1 2025, the average issuance term of local government bonds was 14.69 years, an extension of 1.46 years compared to 2024. The proportion of local government bonds with a term of over 15 years in terms of both scale and quantity increased [38][43]. - **Feature 8: Issuance cost has decreased, while issuance spread has widened** - In H1 2025, the issuance spread of local government bonds rebounded to 12.22BP, an increase of 3.73BP compared to 2024, and the average issuance interest rate decreased to 1.89%, a decrease of 0.39pct compared to 2024. The "flying" phenomenon of local government bonds was significant in the first half of the year, mainly in 30 - year bonds [46][48]. - **Feature 9: Regional issuance spreads continue to diverge in a low - interest - rate environment** - In H1 2025, regional issuance spreads continued to diverge significantly, following the rule that "the stronger the fiscal strength, the lower the spread". Economically strong regions maintained low spreads, while some less - developed regions had high spreads [50]. - **Feature 10: The spread of special refinancing bonds is higher than that of ordinary refinancing bonds** - The spread of special refinancing bonds is higher than that of ordinary refinancing bonds, mainly because the issuance term of special refinancing bonds is generally longer. Nationally, the spreads of special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds are 16.53BP and 13.96BP respectively, higher than those of ordinary refinancing bonds (9.56BP) and ordinary new special bonds (12.55BP) [52]. 1.2. Local Government Bond Secondary Trading Characteristics - **Feature 11: Trading volume has increased, trading price has risen, and turnover rate has decreased** - In H1 2025, the trading volume of local government bonds was 10.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 1690.3 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024. The turnover rate was 3.65%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04 percentage points, mainly due to the significant decline in the turnover rate of general bonds. The trading volume and turnover rate of special bonds are higher than those of general bonds. Regionally, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong have higher turnover rates [55][61]. 1.3. Local Government Bond Institutional Behavior Characteristics - **Feature 13: There are differences in institutional buying and selling behaviors and term preferences** - From the buying side, insurance, funds, and wealth management prefer to sell short - term bonds and buy long - term bonds, while rural commercial banks prefer to buy bonds with a term of 7 - 20 years. From the selling side, large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and securities firms were net sellers in H1 2025. Large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks prefer to buy short - term and sell long - term bonds, while securities firms reduced their holdings across all terms [3].

Key Points - The issuance of replacement bonds for hidden debt reached approximately 1.8 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating a rapid and early issuance trend [1] - The issuance of special new bonds for debt resolution is projected to be 800 billion yuan annually for five years starting in 2024, with 4.623 billion yuan issued in the first half of this year [1][2] - The total amount of local bonds issued for debt resolution accounted for 41% of the total issuance in the first half of the year [1] - The issuance of replacement bonds helps to make hidden debts visible, thereby reducing the scale of existing hidden debts and improving the overall debt structure [2] - Local governments are increasingly using special bonds to repay overdue payments to enterprises, with specific allocations made in regions like Yunnan [2][3] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of resolving overdue payments to enterprises, particularly for private enterprises, to enhance their resilience against risks [3][4] - There is a call for accelerating the transformation of local investment companies to reduce reliance on local governments and improve their market competitiveness [4][5]

Group 1: Consumption Trends - Consumption has led the market since April and year-to-date, with personal care products, animal health, feed, snacks, and cosmetics showing the highest gains[1] - Recommended consumption sectors include apparel, automobiles (including two-wheeled electric vehicles), retail, food, beauty care, aquaculture, feed, and snacks since the Spring Strategy Outlook on February 12[1] Group 2: Fiscal Impact on Consumption - Retail sales growth is highly elastic to fiscal spending cycles, with elasticity increasing during fiscal expansion periods[2] - The expected fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is around 4%, up from approximately 3% in 2024, indicating a significant increase in central government spending[21] - Local government debt pressures have historically suppressed consumption, but debt relief efforts are expected to drive internal recovery in consumption, particularly in high-debt provinces[2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests focusing on domestic consumption sectors, technology growth, cost improvement drivers, and structural opportunities abroad[32] - Recommended sectors include domestic consumption (apparel, automobiles, retail, food, beauty care), technology (AI, robotics, semiconductors), and cost-driven sectors (aquaculture, energy metals)[32]