Key Points - The issuance of replacement bonds for hidden debt reached approximately 1.8 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating a rapid and early issuance trend [1] - The issuance of special new bonds for debt resolution is projected to be 800 billion yuan annually for five years starting in 2024, with 4.623 billion yuan issued in the first half of this year [1][2] - The total amount of local bonds issued for debt resolution accounted for 41% of the total issuance in the first half of the year [1] - The issuance of replacement bonds helps to make hidden debts visible, thereby reducing the scale of existing hidden debts and improving the overall debt structure [2] - Local governments are increasingly using special bonds to repay overdue payments to enterprises, with specific allocations made in regions like Yunnan [2][3] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of resolving overdue payments to enterprises, particularly for private enterprises, to enhance their resilience against risks [3][4] - There is a call for accelerating the transformation of local investment companies to reduce reliance on local governments and improve their market competitiveness [4][5]

2025 年 05 月 24 日 策略研究团队 理解消费今年以来的领涨——从总量到结构 ——投资策略周报 韦冀星（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 无论是 4 月以来，还是年初以来，消费均领涨 无论是 4 月以来（尤其是对等关税实施后），还是今年年初以来，市场领涨的细分板 块均以消费为主，其中又以个护用品、动保、饲料、休闲食品、化妆品等品种涨幅 最为领先。我们自 2.12 春季策略展望以来推荐的消费细分行业则包括服装鞋帽、汽 车（包括两轮电动车）、零售、食品、美容护理、养殖、饲料、零食。 如何理解消费今年以来的领涨——从总量到结构 1、预期差 1：财政即便是弱扩张，社零也有更高弹性。我们发现，社零增速的弹性 对财政支出周期非常敏感。许多投资者倾向于认为，消费是显著的后周期品种，往 往需要投资或出口有显著的改善之后，消费的提振才慢慢显现。但我们发现一个预 期差：社零同比增速与名义 GDP 增速的轧差可以看做社零的弹性，当财政支出在下 行（收紧）周期时，社零的弹性减弱，而当财政支出在上行（扩张）周期时，社零 的弹性上行。随着财政支出周期从 2023-2024 ...