第 536 期 为持续提升发行规范，交易商协会发布以下提示：一、严格落实分销信息线上录入要求。二、做好撤标报备工作。三、规范开展申购环节信息留痕。四、严 格落实主承销商团机制相关要求。五、持续提升发行信息披露质量。 宏观动态 上海清算所：截至2025年末，债券托管规模50万亿元 2026-01-09 焦点关注 规范债务融资工具发行！交易商协会发布5项提示 交易商协会发布《关于进一步规范债务融资工具发行工作的业务提示》称，在近期监测中发现部分机构存在未按要求录入分销信息、未就撤标情况进行报 备、单期主承销商家数不满足自律规则要求等问题。 1月8日，上海清算所召开2026年工作会议，总结公司2025年工作，部署2026年工作。会议指出，2025年，集中清算业务规模819万亿元，其中中央对手清算 业务272万亿元，分别同比增长13.6%和29%。截至2025年末，债券托管规模50万亿元，同比增长12.6%。 区域热点 郑州市城投企业债务风险研究报告 辽宁省拟发行170亿元特殊再融资债，用于置换存量隐性债务 财政部拟发行1670亿元记账式附息国债 财政部发布通知，拟发行2026年记账式附息（一期）国债。本期国债为1年 ...

固定收益点评 一季度政府债发行的四大特点 岁末年初，政府债供给冲击、权益市场强预期、长债配置需求不足，为近 期债市走弱的核心扰动。一季度政府债供给压力如何，是否构成债市的重 要约束，我们对此展开分析。 一季度政府债发行计划： 证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2026 01 08 年 月 日 本月债市或保持震荡，等待月底可能出现的配置机会。目前债市面临多重 冲击，1 月信贷和政府债券或面临冲量高峰期，同时股市走强、通胀阶段 性回升、央行购债规模有限等都对债市产生不利影响。但也需要看到，随 着债券利率上升，债券相对性价比也在发生变化。交易结构中配置力量或 逐步增强，以及交易型机构仓位的下降，意味着推动债市企稳力量在逐步 累积。因此，我们预计 1 月债市或保持震荡，短期利率存在冲高可能。月 底供给冲击过后，预计债市有望逐步修复，短期继续以短端加杠杆策略为 主，静待配置机会。 风险提示：外部风险超预期；货币政策超预期；风险偏好恢复超预期。 作者 分析师 杨业伟 执业证书编号：S0680520050001 邮箱：yangyewei@gszq.com 特点一：今年一季度地方债发行计划规模或低于去 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 下周新增债披露发行 884 亿 ——政府债周报（01/04） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 1 月 5 日-1 月 11 日地方债披露发行 1176.64 亿元。其中新增债 884.34 亿元（新增一般债 10.00 亿元，新增专项债 874.34 亿元），再融资债 292.30 亿元（再融资一般债 0.00 亿元，再融资专 项债 292.30 亿元）。 12 月 29 日-1 月 4 日地方债共发行 260.00 亿元。其中新增债 145.00 亿元（新增一般债 0.00 亿元，新增专项债 145.00 亿元），再融资债 115.00 亿元（再融资一般债 85.00 亿元，再融资专 项债 30.00 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 下周新增债披露发行 2 ...

[Table_Summary] 12 月 29 日-1 月 4 日地方债披露发行 260.0 亿元。其中新增债 145.0 亿元（新增一般债 0.0 亿 元，新增专项债 145.0 亿元），再融资债 115.0 亿元（再融资一般债 85.0 亿元，再融资专项债 30.0 亿元）。 12 月 22 日-12 月 28 日地方债共发行 20.4 亿元。其中新增债 20.4 亿元（新增一般债 0.0 亿 元，新增专项债 20.4 亿元），再融资债 0.0 亿元（再融资一般债 0.0 亿元，再融资专项债 0.0 亿 元）。 丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 一季度发行计划已披露 1.6 万亿 ——政府债周报（12/28） 报告要点 [Table_Title 一季度发行计划已披露 2] 1.6 万亿 ——政府债周报（12/28） [Table_Summary2] 发行预告 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance term of local government bonds in Q1 2026 may set the tone for the whole year, and the issuance in 2026 is expected to further balance issuance costs and maturity repayment pressure [2] - The issuance of new local government bonds before the Spring Festival in 2026 may not result in physical work, and the peak issuance of new local government bonds may occur in the second and third quarters [2] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Two - year Increase in Long - term Local Government Bond Supply, Mainly Due to the Lengthening of Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Terms - Since the implementation of debt resolution policies, the supply of long - term local government bonds has continued to increase. In 2025, compared with 2023, the issuance term increased by 3.0 years. The issuance term of special refinancing bonds increased by 10.3 years, and those of new bonds and refinancing bonds increased by 0.3 years and 1.3 years respectively [2][7] - In 2025, the average issuance term of special refinancing bonds was 18.9 years, an increase of 10.3 years compared with 2023. Seven provinces had an average issuance term of over 25 years, with more than half being key provinces [7] - In 2025, the average issuance term of new bonds was 16.8 years, with little change in the past 3 years, but significant regional differentiation. Four provinces saw an increase of over 5 years in issuance terms [7] - In 2025, the average issuance term of refinancing bonds was 9.6 years, an increase of 1.3 years compared with 2023. Twenty - four out of 31 provinces had lengthened issuance terms, and three provinces had an increase of over 5 years [7] 3.2 The Issuance Term of Local Government Bonds in Q1 2026 May Set the Tone for the Whole Year - As of December 27, 22 provinces and municipalities had announced their Q1 2026 issuance plans, with a total amount of 1593.4 billion yuan. The amount of new general bonds was 116.4 billion yuan, new special bonds was 483.5 billion yuan, and refinancing bonds was 993.5 billion yuan. The front - loading of replacement bonds is clear [2][8] - The issuance term of local government bonds in Q1 2026 may set the tone for the whole year. The proportion of replacement bonds in the Q1 2026 issuance plan may be relatively high. The lengthening of replacement bond terms was the main reason for the increase in long - term local government bond supply in the past two years [2][9] - In 2026, the issuance of local government bonds will further balance issuance costs and maturity repayment pressure. From the perspective of refinancing, the principal repayment ratio after local government bond maturity is between 10% - 15%. In volatile and bull markets, reducing the proportion of 15 - year, 20 - year (curve convex points), and 30 - year (high issuance cost) local government bonds is more advantageous; during interest rate adjustment periods, lengthening the term can lock in issuance costs. The issuance term in 2026 may be reduced compared with 2024 and 2025 [2][10][11] 3.3 Supply Rhythm: Replacement Bonds May Be Front - loaded, and the Peak of Special Bond Issuance May Occur in the Second and Third Quarters - In 2026, the Spring Festival falls in mid - to - late February. Issuing new local government bonds before the Spring Festival may not result in physical work. The first - quarter issuance may be mainly replacement bonds, and the peak issuance of new local government bonds may occur in the second and third quarters [13] - Q1: The issuance of replacement bonds is expected to be front - loaded to promote the repayment of implicit debts of financing platforms and the exit of financing platforms [13] - Q2 and Q3: After the second batch of local government bond quotas is released, there may be a peak in the issuance of new local government bonds. Historically, the monthly issuance scale during the peak may reach 800 - 1000 billion yuan, and the issuance progress of new local government bonds may reach around 90% by the end of September each year [13] - Q4: The remaining quotas and unused limits of new local government bonds will be issued. The unused limits in 2024 and 2025 were 400 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan respectively, and the Ministry of Finance issued them in the fourth quarter [13]

——地方债周报 一、一级市场情况 【净融资】本周地方债共发行 20 亿元，净融资减少 312 亿元。本周地方债发行 量为 20 亿元，偿还量为 52 亿元，净偿还为 32 亿元。发行债券中，新增专项债 20 亿元，无新增一般债、再融资一般债、再融资专项债。 【发行期限】本周 20Y 地方债发行占比最高（59%），10Y 及以上发行占比为 84%，与上周相比有所下降。5Y、10Y 和 20Y 和地方债发行占比分别为 16%、 25%和 59%，其中 20Y 地方债发行占比上升较多；10Y 地方债发行占比下降较 多，环比下降约 11 个百分点。 证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 12 月 29 日 26Q1 地方债已披露将发行 1.68 万亿元 【发行利差】本周地方债加权平均发行利差为 24.3bp，较上周有所走阔。其中 20Y 地方债加权平均发行利差最高，达 25.3bp。本周发行的 5Y、10Y、20Y 的 地方债加权平均发行利差走阔。本周湖南、广东、内蒙古等地发行地方债，其 中湖南和广东加权平均发行利差超过 20bp。 【募集资金投向】截至本周末，2025 年以来新增专项债募集资金投向主要为冷 ...

化债下半程：成效、动向与展望 证券研究报告 固收 核心观点 随着 2027 年 6 月这一化债关键时点逐渐趋近，市场再度关注起城投债信用 风险。当前化债到达什么程度？后续应关注哪些方面？化债思路预计有何转 变？如何看待 2027 年 6 月后的城投平台？弱区域城投平台是否存在违约的 可能性？针对以上问题，我们梳理总结，并结合地方调研情况，推演城投可 能的趋势与分化路径。 当前化债进度几何？从数据复盘化债成果 从隐债清退、平台名单退出、经营性债务化解、重点省份退出、成本压降、 结构优化及制度建设等多维度看，化债取得明显进展。但地方债务压力依然 较重：一是债务总规模仍高，城投债务与地方债此消彼长，地方全口径债务 总规模已超 120 万亿元。二是多数省份债务率仍在上升。此外，今年化债 资源更加丰富，2 万亿置换隐债专项债已落地，仍有特殊新增专项债、特殊 再融资债在发行进程。但同时，化债也对项目投资产生挤占效应。截至 2025 年 12 月 5 日，今年用于项目投资的新增专项债仅占 58%，相比去年（78%） 下滑，贵州、云南等地新增专项债中用于非项目投资比例超 70%。 化债下半程有何新动向？ 我们总结三大趋势：一 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report mainly focuses on the issuance of local government bonds, including actual and forecasted issuance amounts, progress of new - bond and refinancing - bond issuance, and the issuance details of special bonds. It provides a comprehensive overview of the local government bond market situation from December 15 to December 28, 2025, and the long - term issuance status of special bonds [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - 12/22 - 12/28 local bond forecasted issuance is 204 million yuan, including 204 million yuan of new bonds (0 yuan of new general bonds and 204 million yuan of new special bonds) and 0 yuan of refinancing bonds [1][5]. - 12/15 - 12/21 local bond actual issuance is 4.004 billion yuan, including 3.522 billion yuan of new bonds (596 million yuan of new general bonds and 2.926 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 482 million yuan of refinancing bonds [1][5]. 3.2 Special Bond Issuance Progress - As of 12/21, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds total 200 billion yuan, and the sixth - round special refinancing bonds total 28.81 billion yuan, with 0 yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round second - batch disclosure scale are Jiangsu (251.1 billion yuan), Hunan (128.8 billion yuan), and Henan (122.7 billion yuan) [5]. - As of 12/21, 2025 special new special bonds total 136.6808 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 255.4672 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in the disclosure scale are Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Henan (13.2534 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three regions are Jiangsu (128.9 billion yuan), Guangdong (123.928 billion yuan), and Henan (75.96 billion yuan) [6]. 3.3 Local Bond Net Supply - 12/15 - 12/21 local bond net supply is 2.81 billion yuan, and 12/22 - 12/28 local bond forecasted net supply is - 320 million yuan [13]. 3.4 New Bond Issuance Progress - As of 12/21, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 95.81%, and that of new special bonds is 99.96% [24]. 3.5 Refinancing Bond Net Supply The report provides a chart showing the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities from 2020 to 2025 as of 12/21 [26]. 3.6 Special Bond Issuance Details - Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics: The report details the issuance amounts of special refinancing bonds in different rounds for various regions from 2019 to 2025, including first - round to sixth - round issuances [30]. - Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics: It shows the issuance amounts of special new special bonds in different years for various regions as of 12/21 [33]. 3.7 Local Bond Investment and Trading - One - and Two - Level Spreads: The report presents the one - level and two - level spreads of local bonds on 12/14 and 12/21 [37]. - Regional Two - Level Spreads: It provides the two - level spreads of different regions from 9/12/2025 to 12/19/2025 [38]. 3.8 New Special Bond Investment Direction The report mentions the investment direction of new special bonds, but specific details are not elaborated, only indicating that the latest month's statistics only consider issued new bonds [40].

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 下周新增债披露发行 352 亿 ——政府债周报（12/14） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 15 日-12 月 21 日地方债披露发行 400.4 亿元。其中新增债 352.2 亿元（新增一般债 59.6 亿元，新增专项债 292.6 亿元），再融资债 48.2 亿元（再融资一般债 39.2 亿元，再融资专项债 9.0 亿元）。 12 月 8 日-12 月 14 日地方债共发行 1069.6 亿元。其中新增债 710.5 亿元（新增一般债 210.0 亿元，新增专项债 500.5 亿元），再融资债 359.0 亿元（再融资一般债 187.4 亿元，再融资专项 债 171.6 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 下周新增债披露发行 2] 352 亿 ——政府债周报（12/14 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 减国债利差表现分化，下周发行降 速 ——地方债周度跟踪 20251212 相关研究 《今年 2 万亿置换隐债专项债已全 部发行完毕——地方债周度跟踪 20251205》 2025/12/07 《发行提速但下周再降速，5000 亿 结存限额发行或已过半 ——地方 债周度跟踪 20251128》 2025/11/30 《减国债利差皆收窄，下周发行明 显提速——地方债周度跟踪 20251121》 2025/11/23 《新增债发行提速，减国债利差表 现分化——地方债周度跟踪 20251114》 2025/11/16 《7Y 以上地方债减国债利差收窄， 下周发行明显提速——地方债周度 跟踪 20251107》 2025/11/10 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请 ...