Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly update on government bonds, including the issuance of local government bonds, special bonds, and the weighted - average issuance terms [1][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From March 9th to March 15th, local bonds issued a total of 1355.45 billion yuan, including 371.30 billion yuan in new bonds and 984.15 billion yuan in refinancing bonds. From March 16th to March 22nd, local bonds are expected to issue 3422.34 billion yuan, including 1282.78 billion yuan in new bonds and 2139.57 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [1][6][7]. - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: In March 2026, the planned issuance of local bonds across the country is 8674 billion yuan, a decrease of 1143 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The actual disclosed issuance is 7503 billion yuan, with an expected repayment of 4191 billion yuan and a net financing of 4483 billion yuan [9]. 2. Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of March 15th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 29.32%, and that of new special bonds is 20.91% [28]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of March 15th is presented in the relevant chart [33]. 3. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of March 15th, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds total 20000.00 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totals 7809.53 billion yuan, with an additional 973.17 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch disclosure are Jiangsu (811.59 billion yuan), Zhejiang (564.00 billion yuan), and Hunan (516.00 billion yuan) [8]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of March 15th, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2026 is 1098.72 billion yuan, and since 2023, it is 26726.28 billion yuan. The top three regions in the 2026 disclosure are Guangdong (151.00 billion yuan), Zhejiang (117.00 billion yuan), and Hunan (103.00 billion yuan) [8]. 4. Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in the relevant charts, showing the changes from March 8th to March 15th, 2026 [42]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The regional secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in the relevant chart [43]. - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: The monthly statistics of new special bond investment directions are presented in the relevant chart, with the latest month's statistics only considering issued new bonds [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including actual and forecasted issuance amounts, special bond issuance progress, and issuance term changes [1][5][6] Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Local Government Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **3/9 - 3/15 Forecasted Issuance**: 135.545 billion yuan, including 37.13 billion yuan of new bonds (19.395 billion yuan of new general bonds and 17.734 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 98.415 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (55.256 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 43.16 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5] - **3/2 - 3/8 Actual Issuance**: 272.484 billion yuan, including 82.961 billion yuan of new bonds (4.792 billion yuan of new general bonds and 78.169 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 189.523 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (54.328 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 135.195 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][6] 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of March 8, the fifth round, second batch of special refinancing bonds totaled 200 billion yuan, and the fifth round, third batch totaled 78.5955 billion yuan, with an additional 2.2843 billion yuan to be disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth round, third batch were Jiangsu (8.1159 billion yuan), Zhejiang (5.64 billion yuan), and Hunan (5.16 billion yuan) [7] - **Special New Special Bonds**: As of March 8, 2026 special new special bonds totaled 9.4606 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 255.4672 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions were Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Henan (13.2534 billion yuan). In 2026, the top three regions were Zhejiang (1.17 billion yuan), Guangdong (1.096 billion yuan), and Hunan (1.03 billion yuan) [7] 3. Regional Issuance Plans and Actual Issuance - In March 2026, the planned issuance of local government bonds nationwide was 83.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.12 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The actual disclosed issuance was 40.8 billion yuan, with an expected repayment of 41.91 billion yuan and a net financing of 41.14 billion yuan [8] 4. Weighted Average Issuance Term - **3/2 - 3/8**: The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 17.95 years, that of national bonds was 0.54 years, and that of government bonds was 11.79 years [9] - **3/9 - 3/15**: The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 10.15 years, that of national bonds was 0.17 years, and that of government bonds was 2.89 years [9] - **As of March 6, 2026**: The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 17.46 years, an increase of 0.5 years compared to the same period in 2025; that of national bonds was 5.79 years, an increase of 1.4 years; and that of government bonds was 6.12 years, a decrease of 4.1 years [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the weekly situation of local government bonds, including primary and secondary market conditions, such as net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume and turnover rates. It also provides information on the issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026 and the next week [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 272.5 billion yuan, with a net financing of 255.2 billion yuan, a net increase of 64.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance included 4.8 billion yuan in new general bonds, 78.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, 54.3 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 135.2 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (28%), and the proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 93%, a decrease compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local government bonds were 7%, 23%, 28%, 15%, and 26% respectively. The issuance proportion of 15 - year bonds increased significantly, while that of 30 - year bonds decreased by about 25 percentage points [1][13]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 112.6 billion yuan were issued. As of the end of this week, 28 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 804.2 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds in 2026, all of which are special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Among them, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Zhejiang had relatively large issuance volumes, with 80 billion yuan, 57.3 billion yuan, and 56.4 billion yuan respectively. This week, 5.6 billion yuan in special special bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 118 billion yuan in special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2026, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hunan issuing 15.1 billion yuan, 10.6 billion yuan, and 10.3 billion yuan respectively [2][16][20]. - **Issuance Spreads**: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds was 19.2bp, narrowing compared to last week. The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 22.5bp. The issuance spreads of 7 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - year local government bonds widened, while those of other terms narrowed. Inner Mongolia, Fujian, and Hebei had relatively high local government bond issuance spreads this week, at 23.8bp, 20.5bp, and 19.3bp respectively [2][25]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of the funds raised by new special bonds in 2026 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (34%), transportation infrastructure (17%), affordable housing projects (14%), social undertakings (11%), and agriculture, forestry, and water conservancy (8%) [2][28]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, some regions have disclosed the local government bond issuance plan for the first quarter of 2026. Considering the actual issuance volumes in January and February, the total disclosed issuance volume for the first quarter is nearly 3 trillion yuan, with 936.2 billion yuan in March. The planned issuance volumes of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter are 1387.6 billion yuan and 1570.1 billion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to be issued worth 135.5 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 70.9 billion yuan and a net financing of 64.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 190.6 billion yuan compared to this week. The issuance includes 19.4 billion yuan in new general bonds, 17.7 billion yuan in new special bonds, 55.3 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 43.2 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [3][31][32]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the 10 - year local government bonds had a relatively high secondary spread. Except for the 20 - year and 30 - year local government bonds whose secondary spreads widened, the secondary spreads of other terms narrowed. The secondary spread of 10 - year local government bonds reached 14.4bp. From the historical quantile of the past three years, the historical quantile of the 7 - year local government bond secondary spread was relatively high, at 59%. Regionally, the 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the 10 - 20 - year local government bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high secondary spreads, exceeding 12bp [4][5][35]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. The local government bonds in Ningxia had a relatively high turnover rate. This week, the trading volume of local government bonds reached 632.1 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.12%. Among them, the trading volume of local government bonds in Guangdong was large, reaching 85.5 billion yuan; the turnover rate of local government bonds in Ningxia was relatively high, reaching 5.7% [5][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the primary and secondary markets of local bonds in the week of March 2, 2026, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, fundraising directions, and trading volume and turnover rate, and also presents the issuance plan for the first quarter of 2026 and the upcoming week [1][3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local bonds issued 2564 billion yuan in total, with a net financing of 1904 billion yuan, a net financing increase of 2118 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance includes 125 billion yuan of new general bonds, 1272 billion yuan of new special bonds, 211 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 956 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. Next week, the planned issuance of local bonds is 2725 billion yuan, with a repayment of 173 billion yuan, and a net financing of 2552 billion yuan, a net financing increase of 648 billion yuan compared to this week [1][3][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: This week, the issuance proportion of 30Y local bonds is the highest (51%), and the issuance proportion of 10Y and above is 96%, showing an increase compared to the previous issuance week. The issuance proportions of 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, and 30Y local bonds are 1%, 22%, 12%, 11%, and 51% respectively, with the issuance proportion of 30Y local bonds increasing significantly and that of 10Y local bonds decreasing by about 9 percentage points [1][13]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds issued 1167 billion yuan. In 2026, 27 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 7959 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds, all of which are special bonds for replacing implicit debts. Among them, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Zhejiang have relatively large issuance volumes of 800 billion yuan, 573 billion yuan, and 564 billion yuan respectively. This week, 53 billion yuan of special special - purpose bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 1055 billion yuan of special special - purpose bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2026, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hunan issuing 151 billion yuan, 106 billion yuan, and 103 billion yuan respectively [2][15][20]. - **Issuance Spreads**: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local bonds is 19.7bp, widening compared to the previous issuance week. The 30Y local bonds have the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 23.4bp. The issuance spreads of 3Y, 10Y, and 30Y local bonds have all widened, while those of other - term local bonds have narrowed. This week, Ningxia, Liaoning, and Hebei have relatively high local bond issuance spreads, at 25.4bp, 22.7bp, and 22.4bp respectively [2][25]. - **Fundraising Directions**: As of the end of this week, since 2026, the fundraising of new special bonds has been mainly directed towards cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (32%), transportation infrastructure (18%), affordable housing projects (15%), social undertakings (11%), and land reserves (8%) [2][28][29]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, some regions have disclosed the issuance plan of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026. Considering the actual issuance scale in January and February, the total disclosed issuance scale for the first quarter is nearly 3 trillion yuan, with 9347 billion yuan in March. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter is 13916 billion yuan and 15647 billion yuan respectively [3][31]. 2. Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spread of 10Y local bonds is relatively high. Except for the narrowing of the secondary spreads of 5Y, 20Y, and 30Y local bonds, the secondary spreads of other - term local bonds have all widened. The secondary spread of 10Y local bonds reaches 15.9bp. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past 3 years, the historical quantile of the secondary spread of 7Y local bonds is relatively high, at 64%. Region - wise, the 7 - 10Y local bonds in each region have relatively high secondary spreads, and the secondary spreads of local bonds over 10Y in medium - level regions are also relatively high, exceeding 12bp [5][35]. - **Trading Situation**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds have decreased compared to the previous issuance week. The turnover rate of Tibet's local bonds is relatively high. This week, the trading volume of local bonds reached 2390 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.42%. Among them, the trading volume of Guangdong's local bonds is large, reaching 231 billion yuan, and the turnover rate of Tibet's local bonds is relatively high, reaching 1.5% [5][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including actual and planned issuance, net supply, and special bond issuance progress [1][5][6] Summaries by Directory 1. Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: Not elaborated in detail in the given text - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: In February 2026, the country planned to issue 8589 billion yuan of local bonds, an increase of 2953 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with actual issuance of 11582 billion yuan. In March 2026, the planned issuance is 9120 billion yuan, a decrease of 697 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025 [8] 2. Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of February 15, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 24.74%, and that of new special bonds was 13.94% [30] - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: As of February 15, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities for the year is presented in a graph [31] 3. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of February 15, the fifth - batch second - round special refinancing bonds totaled 20000.00 billion yuan, and the fifth - batch third - round totaled 6773.85 billion yuan, with an additional 934.00 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - batch third - round disclosure scale are Jiangsu (800.00 billion yuan), Zhejiang (564.00 billion yuan), and Hunan (516.00 billion yuan) [7] - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of February 15, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2026 was 946.06 billion yuan, and since 2023, it has been 25546.72 billion yuan. The top three regions in the total disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2440.35 billion yuan), Hubei (1377.69 billion yuan), and Henan (1325.34 billion yuan). In 2026, the top three regions are Zhejiang (117.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (109.60 billion yuan), and Hunan (103.00 billion yuan) [7] 4. Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in graphs, showing the spreads and their changes at different maturities [44] - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The regional secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in a graph [45] - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: The monthly investment direction statistics of new special bonds are presented in a graph, with the latest month's statistics only considering issued new bonds [46]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of special refinancing bonds significantly reduces the credit spread of urban investment bonds, primarily through enhancing the implicit guarantee capacity of local governments [1][25]. Group 1: Research Background - The increasing economic downward pressure and adjustments in the real estate market have weakened the debt repayment capacity of some local governments, leading to rising issuance rates and credit spreads for urban investment bonds since 2023 [2]. - The Chinese government has emphasized the importance of preventing systemic financial risks and has adopted special refinancing bonds as a tool for debt restructuring and risk mitigation [2][3]. Group 2: Literature Review - Existing studies have focused on the impact of replacement bonds since 2015, highlighting their role in reducing interest expenses and extending debt maturity, which significantly affects urban investment bond rates and credit spreads [3]. - Special refinancing bonds, introduced in late 2020 and expanded in 2023, aim to address hidden debts not included in budgets, yet they have received limited academic attention [3]. Group 3: Empirical Analysis - The study analyzes data from 2021 to 2024, utilizing a sample of 13,413 urban investment bonds, with data sourced from authoritative databases and official statistics [8][9]. - The main variable, the credit spread of urban investment bonds, reflects the premium over risk-free rates and is crucial for measuring financing costs [9][10]. Group 4: Hypotheses and Mechanisms - Hypothesis one posits that the issuance of special refinancing bonds significantly lowers the credit spread of new urban investment bonds [5]. - Hypothesis two suggests that special refinancing bonds enhance local governments' implicit guarantee capacity, thereby reducing the credit spread of new urban investment bonds [7][20]. Group 5: Results and Robustness Checks - The results indicate that an increase in the special refinancing bond ratio significantly lowers the credit spread across various model specifications, confirming hypothesis one [15][16]. - Robustness checks further validate the findings, showing that the impact of special refinancing bonds on reducing issuance spreads remains significant under different variable constructions and sample sizes [17][18]. Group 6: Mechanism Analysis - The analysis reveals that the issuance of special refinancing bonds significantly enhances the market's perception of local governments' implicit guarantee capacity, which in turn reduces the credit spread of urban investment bonds [21][23]. Group 7: Conclusions and Policy Recommendations - The study concludes that special refinancing bonds effectively lower the financing costs of urban investment bonds by enhancing local governments' implicit guarantee capacity [25]. - Recommendations include establishing a supportive mechanism for special refinancing bonds linked to the operational efficiency of platform companies and reforming credit pricing mechanisms to mitigate implicit guarantee expectations [27][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including issuance forecasts, historical reviews, special bond issuance progress, regional issuance plans and actual issuance, and weighted average issuance terms [1][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Local Government Bond Issuance Forecast and Review - **2/9 - 2/15 Forecast**: Local government bonds are expected to issue 32.2136 billion yuan, including 25.6607 billion yuan of new bonds (6.1593 billion yuan of new general bonds and 19.5014 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 6.5529 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (2.0884 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 4.4645 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5]. - **2/2 - 2/8 Review**: A total of 57.9673 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, including 20.9811 billion yuan of new bonds (7.5535 billion yuan of new general bonds and 13.4276 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 36.9861 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (4.4282 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 32.5579 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][6]. 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of February 8, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 200 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totaled 58.3985 billion yuan, with an additional 3.3291 billion yuan disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch are Jiangsu (8 billion yuan), Zhejiang (5.64 billion yuan), and Henan (4.8295 billion yuan) [7]. - **Special New Special Bonds**: As of February 8, 2026 special new special bonds totaled 6.9406 billion yuan, and since 2023, they totaled 255.4672 billion yuan. The top three regions in total disclosure are Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Henan (13.2534 billion yuan). In 2026, the top three regions are Zhejiang (1.17 billion yuan), Guangdong (1.096 billion yuan), and Liaoning (0.8914 billion yuan) [7]. 3. Regional Issuance Plans and Actual Issuance - **February 2026**: The expected issuance is 85.89 billion yuan, an increase of 29.53 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The actual disclosed issuance is 90.18 billion yuan, with an expected repayment of 8.49 billion yuan and a net financing of 69.27 billion yuan. - **March 2026**: The expected issuance is 85.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.01 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The expected repayment is 16.62 billion yuan, and the net financing is 69.27 billion yuan [8]. 4. Weighted Average Issuance Term - This week, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds is 16.12 years, and next week it is 15.48 years. As of February 6, the weighted average issuance term in February is 16.12 years, a 20.5% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. As of February 6, 2026, it is 17.04 years, a 0.8% decrease compared to the same period in 2025 [9].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The issuance of special refinancing bonds is accelerating, with significant amounts of special refinancing bonds and special new special-purpose bonds being disclosed [8] - There are differences between the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds in 2026, and the net financing amounts vary across different months [9] Summary by Directory 1. Issuance Forecast and Review - **2/2 - 2/8 Forecast**: Local government bonds are expected to be issued worth 5796.73 billion yuan, including 2098.11 billion yuan in new bonds (755.35 billion yuan in new general bonds and 1342.76 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 3698.61 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (442.82 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 3255.79 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [6] - **1/26 - 2/1 Review**: A total of 4392.75 billion yuan in local government bonds were issued, including 2322.72 billion yuan in new bonds (392.03 billion yuan in new general bonds and 1930.69 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 2070.03 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (847.84 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 1222.19 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [7] 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of February 1st, the fifth round's second batch of special refinancing bonds totaled 20000.00 billion yuan, and the third batch totaled 5599.98 billion yuan, with an additional 3023.79 billion yuan to be newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of the third - batch disclosure scale are Jiangsu (800.00 billion yuan), Zhejiang (564.00 billion yuan), and Henan (482.95 billion yuan) [8] - **Special New Special - Purpose Bonds**: As of February 1st, 95.88 billion yuan of special new special - purpose bonds for 2026 have been disclosed, and 25546.72 billion yuan have been disclosed since 2023. The top three regions in terms of the total disclosure scale since 2023 are Jiangsu (2440.35 billion yuan), Hubei (1377.69 billion yuan), and Henan (1325.34 billion yuan), while the top three in 2026 are Sichuan (62.58 billion yuan), Shandong (22.30 billion yuan), and Zhejiang (11.00 billion yuan) [8] 3. Local Issuance Plans and Actual Issuance - **2026 Plans**: In January, the planned issuance was 8059 billion yuan, an increase of 2529.96 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with an actual disclosure of 8633 billion yuan, a planned repayment of 849 billion yuan, and a net financing of 8059 billion yuan. In February, the planned issuance is 8071 billion yuan, a decrease of 3818.89 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with a planned repayment of 1662 billion yuan and a net financing of 6409 billion yuan. In March, the planned issuance is 8463 billion yuan, a decrease of 1353.98 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with a planned repayment of 4191 billion yuan and a net financing of 4272 billion yuan [9] 4. Weighted Average Issuance Term - This week, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds is 17.31 years, and next week it is 16.12 years. As of January 30th, it is 17.66 years, a 7.7% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [10] 5. Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - **One - Two - Level Spread**: The report presents the one - level and two - level spreads of local government bonds, as well as the two - level spreads by region [41][42] 6. New Special - Purpose Bond Allocations - The report provides a monthly statistics of the allocation of new special - purpose bonds, with the latest month's statistics considering only the issued new bonds [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since Q4 last year, there have been strong concerns about the supply of ultra - long bonds in the market. In January this year, the issuance scale of ultra - long government bonds increased significantly year - on - year, with the increment mainly from new special bonds, indicating a decent demand for capital for major project construction at the beginning of the year. The central bank's relatively active liquidity injection and banks' increased purchases at the ultra - long end have alleviated market concerns to some extent [3]. - From the perspective of achieving the annual economic target, the annual fiscal increment may exceed market expectations, and fiscal policies may be supplemented in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the net financing of government bonds in 2026 will be 15.1 trillion yuan, and the issuance of ultra - long government bonds will be 7.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 trillion yuan. For Q1, the issuance of ultra - long government bonds is expected to be 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 416.7 billion yuan, with certain supply pressure in February and March [3]. - Insurance is likely to have a good start, with an expected annual premium growth of 6.6% and the growth rate of the balance of funds utilization remaining at around 15%. It is estimated that in 2026, the proportion of ultra - long bonds allocated by insurance in the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds will drop to about 31%, and the proportion in its own bond investment will remain basically flat at about 71%, corresponding to an investment scale of about 2.2 trillion yuan, basically the same as in 2025 [3]. - It is estimated that the investment scale of commercial banks in ultra - long bonds in 2026 will be about 4.82 trillion yuan, accounting for about 67.7% of the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds, a year - on - year increase of 0.66 trillion yuan [3]. - For trading institutions, based on a neutral judgment of the interest rate trend, the investment scale of funds and securities firms in ultra - long bonds may be higher than that in 2025 but lower than that in 2024, totaling about 10 billion yuan [3]. - The 30 - 10 - year term spread in 2025 mainly widened due to the contraction of trading desks' demand for ultra - long bonds and frictions in the trading process, rather than being mainly determined by primary supply [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How is the supply of ultra - long government bonds this year calculated according to the upper limit? - It is estimated that the net financing of government bonds in 2026 will be 15.1 trillion yuan, including 7.143 trillion yuan for treasury bonds and 7.938 trillion yuan for local bonds. In terms of issuance, the issuance of general treasury bonds will be 14.1377 trillion yuan, special treasury bonds 2 trillion yuan, new general bonds 80 billion yuan, new special bonds 550 billion yuan, special refinancing bonds 200 billion yuan, and ordinary refinancing bonds 325.8 billion yuan [7]. - The issuance of ultra - long government bonds in 2026 is expected to be 7.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 trillion yuan. Among them, the issuance of ultra - long treasury bonds will be 1.74 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 225 billion yuan, and the issuance of ultra - long local bonds will be 5.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 475 billion yuan [8]. - For Q1, the issuance of ultra - long government bonds is expected to be 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 416.7 billion yuan. The issuance of ultra - long treasury bonds in Q1 is usually low because special treasury bonds need to be approved by the Two Sessions and are expected to start issuing at the end of April. The planned issuance of local bonds in Q1 is about 2.38 trillion yuan, with a relatively high refinancing ratio, and the issuance of replacement bonds is expected to be in the front, making room for new bonds for construction projects later. The issuance progress of new special bonds is expected to be faster than last year [9][10]. 3.2 How is the demand for ultra - long bonds? 3.2.1 Insurance - In 2025, the premium income of insurance companies from January to November was 5.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.56%. Property insurance increased by 2.48% year - on - year, with auto insurance as the main source of income, accounting for over 52% and highly correlated with the growth rate of vehicle ownership. Personal insurance increased by 9.2% year - on - year, with life insurance accounting for about 77% and growing by 11.47%, mainly driven by the popularity of savings - type insurance products [12][13]. - In 2026, the probability of a "good start" for premium income is high. Favorable factors include high - interest fixed - deposit maturities, the correlation between the stock market's good start in January and premium income growth, and a low base in 2025. Unfavorable factors include pressure on traditional life insurance and the over - consumption of demand due to previous "panic - buying" promotions. It is expected that the annual premium income will achieve stable growth, with property insurance growing by about 2% and personal insurance by about 8%, and the overall insurance premium income increasing by about 6.6% [14][15]. - At the end of Q3 2025, the balance of insurance funds utilization was 37.46 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. In 2026, it is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of the balance of insurance funds utilization will decline slightly to 15%. The proportion of bank deposits is expected to drop to 7%, the proportion of stock investment to rise to 11.5%, the proportion of fund investment to rise to 6%, the proportion of long - term equity investment to be stable at 8%, and the proportion of other investments to drop to 16%. The proportion of bonds will remain stable at 51.5%, with a net increment of about 3.1 trillion yuan [20][21]. - From 2022 - 2025, the net purchases of ultra - long bonds by insurance institutions in the secondary market were 0.48, 0.73, 1.71, and 2.28 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 13.62%, 20.7%, 31.3%, and 35.5% of the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds, and 48%, 41%, 67%, and 72% of the annual bond investment respectively. In 2026, it is expected that the proportion of ultra - long bonds in the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds will drop from 35.5% in 2025 to about 31%, and the proportion in its own bond investment will drop slightly from 72% in 2025 to 71%, corresponding to an investment scale of about 2.2 trillion yuan [25][26]. 3.2.2 Banks - In 2025, the proportion of banks' bond allocation increased significantly. The government bond custody volume of commercial banks was 63.85 trillion yuan, accounting for 67.17% of the outstanding government bonds. The incremental custody of government bonds by commercial banks in 2025 was 10.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 78% of the net financing of government bonds in 2025 [29]. - It is estimated that in 2026, the passive allocation scale of commercial banks for government bonds will be 10.56 trillion yuan, and the scale of bond purchases will be 17.56 trillion yuan. The scale of ultra - long bonds that commercial banks need to undertake may be 4.48 trillion yuan. It is also expected that the excess allocation scale of commercial banks for ultra - long bonds in 2026 will increase slightly to 0.34 trillion yuan compared with last year. Overall, the scale of commercial banks' allocation of ultra - long bonds in 2026 is estimated to be about 4.82 trillion yuan [30][32]. - After the implementation of the redemption new rules at the beginning of this year, part of the banks' entrusted - out investment has been transferred back to self - operated allocation. The probability of using this part of the funds to increase the allocation of ultra - long bonds is not high due to certain indicator pressures [33]. 3.2.3 Trading Institutions - In 2025, securities firms mainly increased their allocation of treasury bonds, reduced their allocation of local bonds, and shortened the duration of government bonds. The investment scale of securities firms in ultra - long bonds decreased by 1.493 billion yuan. In 2026, it is expected that the investment scale of securities firms in ultra - long bonds will be basically the same as in 2025 [40][41]. - At the end of 2025, non - monetary funds held 12.51 trillion yuan in bond investments. In 2025, funds only net - bought 5.82 billion yuan of ultra - long interest - rate bonds. In 2026, due to the implementation of the fund sales new rules and concerns about the cancellation of tax exemption, the liability side of bond - type funds is unstable. It is expected that the investment scale of funds in ultra - long bonds will be higher than that in 2025 but lower than that in 2024, about 10 billion yuan [41][42]. 3.3 Does the 30 - 10 - year term spread depend on primary supply? - The widening of the 30y - 10y treasury bond spread in 2025 mainly occurred in the second half of the year, mainly due to the significant improvement in the stock market sentiment, the fund sales new rules, and the interest - rate adjustment, which led to the selling of ultra - long bonds by trading - like desks. If primary supply were the decisive factor, the spread should have widened in Q2 2025 [45]. - The widening of the 30y - 10y local bond spread also shows that primary supply is not the main influencing factor, as the power of allocation desks is sufficient to hedge the selling pressure [45]. - For the secondary interest - rate trend, the willingness of trading desks to increase holdings and short - term frictions seem to be more crucial [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of local government bond issuance, including actual and forecasted issuance, special bond issuance progress, and investment and trading indicators [1][5][6] Summary by Directory Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: The net supply of local bonds from January 19th to January 25th was 2032 billion yuan, and the forecasted net supply from January 26th to February 1st is 3109 billion yuan [1][5][20] - **Planned vs. Actual Issuance Comparison**: In January 2026, the planned and actual issuance of local bonds are presented in detail, showing differences in various types of bonds such as new - general bonds, new - special bonds, and refinancing bonds [18][22] Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of January 25th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 2.70%, and that of new special bonds was 3.49% [28] - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of January 25th is presented in a time - series chart [28] Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of January 25th, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 20000 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totaled 2759.33 billion yuan, with an additional 980.25 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch are Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Anhui [7][32] - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of January 25th, 2026 special new special bonds totaled 95.88 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 25546.72 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in 2026 are Sichuan, Shandong, and Zhejiang [7][35] Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented, including overall and regional secondary spreads [38] - **New Special Bond Investment Directions**: The investment directions of new special bonds are presented in a monthly statistics chart [40]