固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 下周新增债披露发行 2241 亿 ——政府债周报（1123） 报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary] 11 月 24 日-11 月 30 日地方债披露发行 3296.9 亿元。其中新增债 2241.2 亿元（新增一般债 87.5 亿元，新增专项债 2153.7 亿元），再融资债 1055.7 亿元（再融资一般债 663.9 亿元，再 融资专项债 391.9 亿元）。 11 月 17 日-11 月 23 日地方债共发行 1846.6 亿元。其中新增债 1026.7 亿元（新增一般债 203.6 亿元，新增专项债 823.1 亿元），再融资债 819.9 亿元（再融资一般债 466.6 亿元，再融资专项 债 353.3 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 [Table_Title 下周新增债披露发行 ...

2025 年 11 月 23 日 减国债利差皆收窄，下周发行明显 提速 ——地方债周度跟踪 20251121 相关研究 《新增债发行提速，减国债利差表 现分化——地方债周度跟踪 20251114》 2025/11/16 《7Y 以上地方债减国债利差收窄， 下周发行明显提速——地方债周度 跟踪 20251107》 2025/11/10 《下周发行降速，关注中长端地方 债性价比——地方债周度跟踪 20251031》 2025/11/02 《新增债发行提速，偿还存量债务 特殊再融资债再发行——地方债周 度跟踪 20251024》 2025/10/26 《5000 亿元结存限额下达，四季度 地方债发行或继续放量——地方债 周度跟踪 20251017》 2025/10/19 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 ...

2025 年 11 月 16 日 新增债发行提速，减国债利差表现 分化 ——地方债周度跟踪 20251114 相关研究 《7Y 以上地方债减国债利差收窄， 下周发行明显提速——地方债周度 跟踪 20251107》 2025/11/10 《下周发行降速，关注中长端地方 债性价比——地方债周度跟踪 20251031》 2025/11/02 《新增债发行提速，偿还存量债务 特殊再融资债再发行——地方债周 度跟踪 20251024》 2025/10/26 《5000 亿元结存限额下达，四季度 地方债发行或继续放量——地方债 周度跟踪 20251017》 2025/10/19 《发行持续放缓，减国债利差表现 分化——地方债周度跟踪 20251010 》 2025/10/12 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 债券周评 目录 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The transformation effect of market - oriented business entities remains to be seen, and it is difficult to expect significant incremental bond supply. The supply - demand relationship of traditional credit bonds remains tight, and the pricing of outstanding bonds among market - oriented entities may become more differentiated in the future [3][35] - The concentrated opening of amortized open - end bond funds may directly benefit general credit bonds (such as urban investment bonds and industrial bonds), especially 3 - 5Y medium - and long - term credit bonds. High - rated (AAA - and above) medium - term notes are recommended as key trading targets in the future [7][75][76] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Platform Market - Oriented Transformation - **Local Bond Issuance for Debt Resolution** - Special Refinancing Bonds: As of 2025/11/9, 19,934 billion yuan of the 2 - trillion - yuan debt quota allocated in 2025 has been issued, almost fully utilized. Except for Henan, all other regions have completed the issuance of special refinancing special bonds within the annual quota [14] - Special New Special Bonds: As of 2025/11/9, 12,818 billion yuan of special new special bonds have been issued in 2025, exceeding the annual limit of 80 billion yuan. The excess may be used to repay non - implicit debt corporate arrears [20] - **Progress of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Entities Exiting the Platform** - From 2025/1/1 - 11/9, 179 bond - issuing urban investment entities announced exiting the platform. Most provinces have a progress of over 50%, while Liaoning and Guizhou are relatively lagging, and future debt - resolution resources may be tilted towards them [24][27] - **Effect of Platform Market - Oriented Transformation** - The number of market - oriented business entities is increasing, but it has not led to a significant increase in bond financing scale. The reasons may be weak asset quality, cautious regulatory review, and limited investor recognition. The transformation effect remains to be observed [3][34] 3.2 Primary Market - **Net Financing Scale** - This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 154.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.5 billion yuan from last week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 35.9 billion yuan, an increase of 18.5 billion yuan from last week [36] - **Issuance Cost** - The issuance rate of AA industrial bonds increased by 30BP to over 3%. The issuance rates of other different - rated and different - type bonds fluctuated within 15BP compared to last week [45] 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume** - This week, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 51.8 billion yuan compared to last week. The trading volume of asset - backed securities increased by 1.4 billion yuan [46] - **Yield** - The yields of different - rated and different - term credit bonds fluctuated within 3BP compared to last week [49] - **Credit Spreads** - Except for the slight compression of credit spreads in AA+ electrical equipment, light manufacturing, and automobile industries, the credit spreads of other industries and ratings slightly widened. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank capital bonds also had small - scale fluctuations [54] 3.4 This Week's Bond Market News - The implied ratings of 20 bond issues of Lionbridge Financial Leasing (China) Co., Ltd. were downgraded; the implied rating of "Yuanhe 4B" issued by China Power Construction Group Hubei Engineering Co., Ltd. was downgraded; the entity rating of Beijing Aerospace宏图 Information Technology Co., Ltd. was downgraded, and the bond rating of "Hongtu Convertible Bond" was also downgraded [72] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - The central bank achieved a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan this week. Except for a few industries, the credit spreads of most industries and ratings slightly widened. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank secondary and perpetual bonds had small - scale fluctuations [74] - The concentrated opening of amortized open - end bond funds may benefit general credit bonds and 3 - 5Y medium - and long - term credit bonds. High - rated medium - term notes are recommended as key trading targets [75][76]

Domestic Economic Overview - In October, China's economic data showed contractions in both supply and demand, but structural highlights remain in consumption upgrades and new productivity[1] - The retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of November dropped by 18.8% year-on-year, while metro passenger volume increased by 4.0% year-on-year[2] - Fixed asset investment from January to October decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, indicating a need for increased investment to support economic growth[7] Production and Pricing Trends - As of November 16, the operating rate of blast furnaces was 82.79%, down 0.36 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a seasonal decline in production[3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.19% week-on-week drop in pork prices, while vegetable prices stabilized with a 0.14% increase[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) reflected mixed performance in black commodities, with coking coal prices down by 3.86% and iron ore prices up by 0.53%[7] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has been completed, with general government bonds issued amounting to 3093.2 billion yuan, achieving 89.5% of the issuance target[7] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating a policy intent to maintain liquidity in the banking system[7] - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with the 10-year yield at 1.8140% and the 30-year yield at 2.1481%[7] International Economic Context - The U.S. government ended a 43-day shutdown, with potential losses estimated at 1.5 trillion USD, impacting economic data releases[8] - New tariffs have been signed by Trump, adjusting the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" and affecting trade relations with multiple countries[8] - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty regarding inflation data due to the risk of missing October's CPI release, complicating monetary policy decisions[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, analyzing the issuance rhythm, pricing, and trading characteristics in the primary and secondary markets [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week (November 3 - 7, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 91.61 billion yuan, including 45.21 billion yuan of new special bonds and 12.73 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/Project Revenue" is the main investment area for special bond funds [3][10] - As of now in November, special refinancing bonds have issued approximately 69.3 billion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [3][10] - In terms of issuance pricing, the downward range of the 10 - year local bond issuance rate is greater than that of the 20 - year and 30 - year varieties. The 10 - year local bond issuance rate has dropped by up to 6BP, and its spread with the same - maturity treasury bond has narrowed to 13.6BP, while the average issuance spreads of the 20 - year and 30 - year varieties have slightly widened compared to the previous week [3][16] - In November, Hubei, Yunnan, and Fujian are the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of local bonds over 20 years in Hubei reaches 9.25 billion yuan, and the average interest rate of Hubei's local government bonds with over 10 - year varieties accounting for nearly 90% reaches 2.31% [3][18] 3.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - Last week (November 3 - 7, 2025), 7 - 10 - year local government bonds slightly outperformed the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds, but the recent cumulative increase was weak. The 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bond indices increased by 0.09% and decreased by 0.03% respectively. The 7 - 10 - year variety's increase exceeded that of the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds, while the over 10 - year variety was inferior to high - grade credit bonds, and the cumulative return was significantly lower than that of the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds [4][21] - In terms of provinces, government bonds in Guangdong, Jiangxi and other places were relatively actively traded, while the trading maturity of each province was still below the level in mid - early October. In terms of trading returns, the average returns of local government bonds in each region are mostly between 1.9% and 2.25%, and the number of trading transactions in provinces with excess returns such as Hebei and Guizhou has decreased [4][23]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing (TSF) increased by 30.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The structure of TSF is changing, with non-loan financing methods now accounting for over half of the total financing increment [2][3] - Government bond net financing reached 11.95 trillion yuan, making up nearly 40% of the TSF increment, indicating a significant role of fiscal policy in driving economic growth [2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financing - The year-to-date growth rate of broad money (M2) is 8.2%, while the year-on-year growth rate of narrow money (M1) is 6.2%, reflecting a slight decline in both metrics [1] - The current monetary policy stance is supportive, aimed at promoting reasonable price recovery, with a focus on maintaining strong support for the real economy [5][6] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans is 3.1%, which is approximately 40 basis points lower than the same period last year [4] Group 2: Loan Structure and Economic Support - In the first ten months, RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.5% as of the end of October [4] - Loans related to new economic drivers, such as technology and green financing, have maintained a rapid growth rate, indicating a shift towards high-quality economic development [4] - The leverage ratio of government departments increased by 2.2 percentage points in Q3 2025, highlighting the ongoing fiscal support for major projects and national strategies [2]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - From November 10 - 16, local government bonds are scheduled to be issued worth 2850.66 billion yuan, including 1519.16 billion yuan of new bonds (125.18 billion yuan of new general bonds and 1393.99 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 1331.50 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (854.25 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 477.25 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][6]. - From November 3 - 9, local government bonds were actually issued worth 916.07 billion yuan, including 452.11 billion yuan of new bonds (0.00 billion yuan of new general bonds and 452.11 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 463.97 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (336.64 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 127.33 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][7]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Local Government Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual Issuance vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: Compares the actual issuance of local government bonds with pre - issuance disclosures, but specific data presentation is mainly through figures [14]. - **Planned Issuance vs. Actual Issuance**: Compares planned and actual issuances of new and refinancing bonds, with specific data presented in figures [16]. - **Local Government Bond Net Supply**: From November 3 - 9, the net supply of local government bonds was - 360 billion yuan; from November 10 - 16, the forecasted net supply is 2428 billion yuan [19]. - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of November 9, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 85.81%, and that of new special bonds was 91.65% [28]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local government bond maturities as of November 9 is presented in a figure [28]. 2.2 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 9, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 19962.24 billion yuan, the sixth - round totaled 1111.43 billion yuan, with an additional 537.69 billion yuan newly disclosed for the next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round second - batch disclosure were Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1288.00 billion yuan), and Henan (1189.24 billion yuan) [8]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 9, 2025 special new special bonds totaled 12518.43 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 24397.06 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in 2025 were Jiangsu (1189.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1027.48 billion yuan), and Yunnan (729.97 billion yuan) [8]. 2.3 Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: Compares the primary - secondary spreads of local government bonds on November 2 and November 9, presented in figures [40]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: Compares regional secondary spreads of local government bonds, presented in a figure [41]. - **New Special Bond Investment Directions**: Presents the investment directions of new special bonds, with the latest month's statistics only considering issued new bonds, presented in a figure [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the net financing of local government bonds decreased, and the weighted - average issuance spread widened. The secondary spreads of local government bonds narrowed, and the trading volume and turnover rate increased [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 916 billion yuan, with a net financing decrease of 213.9 billion yuan. The net repayment was 36 billion yuan. There was no new general - purpose bond, 45.2 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds, 33.7 billion yuan of refinancing general - purpose bonds, and 12.7 billion yuan of refinancing special - purpose bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance term**: This week, the 7 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (28%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds increased to 72%. The proportion of 20 - year bonds increased significantly, while the proportion of 5 - year bonds decreased by about 15 percentage points [1][12]. - **Debt - resolution - related local government bonds**: This week, 5.7 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 34 regions have disclosed plans to issue 2.1074 trillion yuan of special bonds to replace hidden debts. Jiangsu, Guizhou, Hunan, and Henan plan to issue 274.6 billion yuan, 132.4 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, and 118.9 billion yuan respectively. This week, 1 billion yuan of special special - purpose bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 1.2918 trillion yuan of special special - purpose bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2025, with Jiangsu, Guangdong, Yunnan, and Hebei issuing 128.9 billion yuan, 102.7 billion yuan, 73 billion yuan, and 70.2 billion yuan respectively [2][13][18]. - **Issuance spread**: This week, the weighted - average issuance spread of local government bonds was 19.5bp, wider than last week. The 3 - year bonds had the highest spread at 27.2bp. Except for 5 - year and 10 - year bonds, the spreads of other - term bonds widened. Inner Mongolia, Hubei, and Yunnan had spreads over 20bp [1][23]. - **Fund - raising direction**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of new special - purpose bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (18%), land reserve (16%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (11%). Compared with 2024, the proportion of land reserve increased by 16.0%, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.9% [2][26]. - **Issuance plan**: As of the end of this week, 33 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance in October, the total planned issuance for the fourth quarter is about 1.3 trillion yuan, with 701.6 billion yuan in November. New bonds and refinancing bonds are planned to issue 693.1 billion yuan and 580.7 billion yuan respectively. Next week, 285.1 billion yuan of local government bonds are planned to be issued, with a repayment of 42.3 billion yuan and a net financing of 242.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 278.8 billion yuan [3][29][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds were relatively high. Except for 1 - year bonds, the secondary spreads of other - term bonds narrowed. The spreads of 3 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - year bonds were 16.7bp, 17.5bp, and 16.2bp respectively. In terms of historical quantiles in the past three years, the 3 - year and 30 - year bonds had relatively high quantiles, reaching 65% and 59% respectively. Regionally, the 3 - 5 - year bonds in each region had relatively high spreads, all between 15 - 17bp, and the bonds over 10 - year in medium - level regions also had relatively high spreads [5][32]. - **Trading situation**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared with last week. The trading volume reached 477 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.89%. Guangdong had a large trading volume of 77.4 billion yuan, and Jiangxi and Guangdong had relatively high turnover rates of 2.7% and 2.1% respectively [5][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a sequential basis this period, and are expected to increase significantly on a sequential basis next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds lengthened. The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a sequential basis. The current spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds still has certain value for investment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Current Situation of Local Government Bond Issuance - This period (from November 3, 2025, to November 9, 2025), the total issuance/net financing of local government bonds was 9.1607 billion yuan/-3.3641 billion yuan (compared to 27.0682 billion yuan/17.5677 billion yuan in the previous period). It is expected that the issuance/net financing next period (from November 10, 2025, to November 16, 2025) will be 28.5067 billion yuan/24.2792 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.57 years, longer than 13.72 years in the previous period [2][6]. - As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 86.2% and 90.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 87.8% and 93.7%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 88.6%/97.0% and 88.9%/97.2%, and in 2023 was 91.5%/94.4% and 91.6%/94.4% [2][15]. - As of November 7, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed that the planned issuance scale of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 71.33 billion yuan (70.16 billion yuan and 1.17 billion yuan in November and December respectively), including 34.75 billion yuan of new special bonds (34.39 billion yuan and 0.36 billion yuan in November and December respectively). The issuance in the same period last year in the same regions was 189.76 billion yuan and 7.18 billion yuan, and the national issuance in the same period last year was 240.54 billion yuan and 10.68 billion yuan [2]. - This period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 100 million yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts was 0 yuan and 570 million yuan respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 125.18 billion yuan (100 million yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 199.34 billion yuan (0 yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 99.7%, and 32 regions such as Zhejiang have completed the issuance (no new regions this period); since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 - billion - yuan unused quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 5.07 billion yuan (570 million yuan issued this period) [2]. 3.2 Spreads and Turnover Rate - As of November 7, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 20.58BP and 20.19BP respectively, narrowing by 2.88BP and 3.50BP compared to October 31, 2025 (23.46BP and 23.69BP on October 31, 2025), and were at the 58.70% and 77.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.87%, increasing on a sequential basis compared to 0.70% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Qingdao were better than the national average this period [2]. - Taking the 10 - year local government bond as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].