Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant market reversals in the domestic futures market driven by macro policies, supply-demand changes, and geopolitical events, highlighting historical trends and potential future implications. Group 1: Historical Market Trends - From 2001 to 2007, a super cycle in commodities was driven by the rapid industrialization of China post-WTO accession and a drop in U.S. interest rates to 1% [2][4]. - Notable price increases included copper rising from 15,000 CNY/ton in 2002 to 85,000 CNY/ton in 2006, and rubber increasing from 6,000 CNY/ton in 2001 to 30,000 CNY/ton in 2006, primarily due to infrastructure demands and supply constraints [3][4]. Group 2: Recovery Post-Financial Crisis - The period from 2008 to 2011 saw a recovery following the global financial crisis, with China's "four trillion" stimulus plan and loose monetary policy [6][7]. - Cotton prices surged from 10,000 CNY/ton in 2008 to 33,000 CNY/ton in 2010, driven by reduced production in Xinjiang and a recovery in the textile industry [7]. - Rebar prices increased from 3,400 CNY/ton in early 2009 to 5,000 CNY/ton in 2011, supported by infrastructure investments [8]. Group 3: Supply-Side Reforms - In 2016, supply-side reforms led to a reversal in the black series commodities market, with forced capacity reductions following years of overproduction [11][12]. - Coking coal prices rose from 515 CNY/ton at the end of 2015 to 1,600 CNY/ton in 2016 due to mine closures and production limits [13]. - Rebar prices increased from 1,616 CNY/ton to 3,500 CNY/ton, influenced by a recovery in real estate and infrastructure [14]. Group 4: Post-Pandemic Recovery and New Energy Revolution - The period from 2020 to 2021 was marked by a recovery from the pandemic, with global central banks injecting liquidity and China resuming production first [17][18]. - Copper prices rose from 35,000 CNY/ton in March 2020 to 78,000 CNY/ton in July 2021, driven by demand from green transition initiatives [18]. - The shipping index for Europe surged from 1,000 points in June 2020 to 10,000 points in October 2021, reflecting a recovery in global demand [18]. Group 5: Current and Future Trends - The period from 2023 to 2025 is characterized by geopolitical conflicts and resource nationalism, with significant events impacting supply chains [20][21]. - The ban on mining in Wa State in April 2023 led to a global tin supply crisis, with prices spiking due to reduced imports from China [21]. - The shipping index for Europe increased from 701.6 points in October 2023 to 4,769.9 points by July 2024, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply shortages [22]. Group 6: Key Insights - Market reversals are often triggered by sudden events (e.g., mine closures, wars) or strong policies (e.g., supply-side reforms, monetary easing) [25]. - Supply-demand mismatches, particularly under low inventory and rigid demand conditions, can lead to significant price volatility [25]. - The current market is in a "high volatility norm," with a focus on copper (due to new energy demand), shipping (geopolitical risks), and tin (resource scarcity) [26].