作者 | 市值风云基金研究部 编辑 | 小白 看大势者赚大钱。 2025年，有色金属以153.9%的涨幅在31个申万行业中位列第二，2026年开年该板块再涨17.2%。 面对当下巨幅波动的有色金属板块，很多投资者开始拿不定主意，下面来看看万家基金叶勇怎么说？ （来源：天天基金网） 商品 的 牛市周期走到了哪里？ 在最近上海证券的专访中，叶勇明确指出，大宗商品的超级周期仍处于上行通道中，短期剧烈波动不 改长期大趋势。 多重因素下，黄金、白银价格屡创历史新高，通胀预期下工业金属价格也在节节升高，再叠加人工智 能发展浪潮，为金属的需求提供了新的动能，使得这轮商品周期变得猛烈而复杂。 他提到从过去接近200年来看，一般是8—10年上行期，约15—20年下行期。而本轮商品周期的上行期 将从2021年持续至2030年左右，目前正处于第二个主升浪阶段。 但他也指出，这个主升浪结束之后可能会有一个回撤，回撤大小取决于这一轮的涨幅有多大。 他认为在见顶之前，价格须达到一个足够高的位置并维持较长时间。因为只有这样，大部分上游资源 领域才会有大量的资本开支被刺激出来。 （来源： 上海证券专访稿 ） 具体商品品类来看，2001至20 ...

2月13日，A股市场低开震荡，受昨夜黄金、白银、铜等金属回调影响，有色板块回调，截至10:29，有色ETF汇添富(159652)跌超2%，资金逢跌持续涌入， 有色ETF汇添富(159652)盘中吸金超3800万元。 有色ETF汇添富(159652)标的指数成分股多数回调，厦门钨业跌超3%，紫金矿业、洛阳钼业等跌超2%，赣锋锂业等回调。 【有色ETF汇添富(159652)标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 什C45 | 名标 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 估算板重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601899 | 三合肥新 | 有色全属 | -2.87% | 14.97% | | 2 | 6668809 | 洛阳領小 | 有色全属 | -2.94% | 7.78% | | 3 | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 有色金属 | -2.86% | 5.55% | | 4 | 603799 | 华友错业 | 有色全属 | -2.61% | 4.59% | | 5 | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 有色全属 | -2.12% | 4.03% | | 6 ...

Market Overview - The spring market has experienced a pause with significant corrections in gold and silver prices, leading to a wide fluctuation in global markets. However, the market quickly stabilized after the initial downturn, with COMEX gold recovering to 5000 points and the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing around 4100 points [1][13]. - Affected by overseas uncertainties, A-shares saw a substantial adjustment but rebounded on February 3, demonstrating strong market resilience [2][13]. Long-term Opportunities - The new productive forces are becoming the engine for economic growth, with an increasing share of "new economy" stocks in the market. AI is expected to see application results this year, alongside sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and energy storage entering a favorable cycle [3][14]. - A-shares are attractive in terms of valuation compared to major global markets, with low foreign capital positions and the establishment of mechanisms for long-term domestic funds entering the market. The trend of "deposit migration" among residents may continue in a low-interest-rate environment [3][14][15]. - Policy emphasis on expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption is expected to translate into systematic improvements in corporate profitability. Following the Spring Festival, policy catalysts are anticipated to accelerate, potentially leading to better index performance post-holiday [15]. Sector Focus - The market is expected to focus on cyclical price increases, with sectors like oil and petrochemicals, food and beverage, AI, and semiconductors continuing to see positive trends. The construction materials sector may benefit from major projects under the 14th Five-Year Plan [15]. - Investors are encouraged to consider broad-based products like the CSI A500 ETF (159338) for exposure to industry leaders, as well as a tech + dividend "barbell" strategy as a satellite approach [4][15]. Commodity Market Insights - The gold market has faced its largest drawdown in 40 years but has quickly rebounded, indicating that the bull market is likely not over yet. Historical context suggests that significant narrative shifts are required to signal the end of a bull market [5][16]. - From a macro perspective, a super cycle in commodities is anticipated this year, with fundamental factors driving long-term trends. The black and chemical sectors, currently at relatively low levels, may offer better value post-adjustment [8][17]. Investment Strategies - For investors concerned about market volatility, "fixed income plus" products are recommended. These strategies focus on safety and stability while allowing for some equity exposure to capture market gains [19][20]. - An example is the Guotai Helix 6-month holding mixed fund, which combines high-grade credit bonds for the fixed income portion and a flexible allocation to equities, aiming for a balanced approach to risk and return [20][21].

Global Macro - The market is at the beginning of an artificial intelligence super cycle and an early stage of a commodities super cycle, with strong investment inflows expected in the US [2] - Current labor productivity in the US is at 2%, with estimates suggesting AI could increase productivity by 0.2% to 4.5%, indicating potential stock price increases but also market volatility as perceptions of AI benefits evolve [2] - Credit markets appear solid, but spreads are near historical lows; companies' balance sheets remain strong despite global economic tensions [2] Gold Investment - In 2026, gold should be viewed more as a risk hedging tool rather than a driver of absolute returns [3] Asian Bonds - Investment-grade bonds are seen as a relatively high-value choice in the current environment, with Asian investment-grade bond yields similar to global counterparts but with shorter durations and lower interest rate sensitivity [4] - The Asian high-yield bond market offers attractive yields above 8%, and the credit cycle may be at a turning point with a reduction in default trends [4] Asian Equities - China and South Korea are expected to show resilience and growth potential, supported by policy developments and corporate earnings expectations, while India may recover after adjustments [5][6] - The Korean market benefits from strong demand for AI-related investments and supportive government policies [5] Hong Kong Stock Strategy - Foreign investment interest in Chinese assets is increasing, with Hong Kong stocks showing attractive valuations despite potential market fluctuations [7] - The strategy focuses on sector selection and investment timing, acknowledging inherent risks [7] A-Share Strategy - A "spindle" strategy is favored, focusing on mid-cycle manufacturing assets while being cautious about high-dividend and AI-related assets [8] - The current environment shows low valuations and low attention for many cyclical industries, with potential for significant profit recovery as macroeconomic conditions improve [9] Pharmaceutical Sector - Confidence in the pharmaceutical sector is growing, particularly in innovative drugs, low-valuation segments like medical devices, and specific stock opportunities with strong growth potential [11]

截至13:30，石化ETF（159731）跌0.10%，持仓股上海石化、三棵树、中国石化涨幅居前。从资金净流 入方面来看，石化ETF前一交易日获得资金净流入0.44亿元，连续20个交易日获得资金净流入，累计"吸 金"14.57亿元。石化ETF最新份额达17.00亿份，最新规模17.07亿元，均创成立以来新高。 西部证券指出，康波萧条期，主导国货币信用裂痕扩张，大宗商品迎来超级周期，黄金、工业金属、石 油、农产品依次上涨。继黄金和工业金属大涨之后，2026年全球油价有望大涨，带动化工品涨价重估， 大炼化板块将复制有色板块的上涨路径，且由于其位置更低、启动更晚，未来的上涨空间或将更大。有 色上涨只是大宗商品超级周期的上半场，在流动性更加泛滥的下半场，大炼化板块将承接从贵金属、工 业金属外溢的上涨动能。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）跟踪中证石化产业指数，聚焦"大能源"安全逻辑。 不仅能分享下游化工品的利润修复，此外通过高配"三桶油"等炼化龙头，锁定能源上游资源价值，在油 价上行周期具备更强的业绩韧性。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The commodity market is currently influenced more by supply-side risks than demand-side drivers, indicating that a supercycle is not present [1][4] - The energy sector is experiencing relative oversupply, while non-ferrous and precious metals still hold investment value for 2026 [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Commodity Price Dynamics**: The recent significant pullback in commodity prices, especially in precious metals, is attributed to market adjustments to new Federal Reserve policies and cooling market sentiment [2] - **Gold Price Influences**: Gold prices are under pressure from tightening monetary policy, easing inflation, and expectations of central bank gold sales. The market has already reacted to these factors, leading to a reasonable pullback in gold prices, although overall support levels remain high [6][7] - **Copper and Oil Supply/Demand**: Copper supply is constrained due to insufficient new capacity, supporting prices in the long term, but previous high prices have already been reflected. Oil supply is gradually improving from previous oversupply conditions, suggesting potential price recovery [8][9] - **OPEC+ Supply Uncertainty**: OPEC+ has seen a decline in actual production increase rates, with geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply from countries like Russia and Iran. This uncertainty is expected to persist throughout 2026 [9][10] Additional Important Content - **Natural Gas Market Trends**: The U.S. natural gas market is expected to see a price increase due to rising LNG exports and reduced associated gas supply. European markets are facing low inventory levels, necessitating increased LNG imports [3][15] - **Investment Strategy for 2026**: Investors are advised to focus on timing and specific commodities rather than simply following trends. The anticipated copper shortage from 2025 to 2026 contrasts with the gradual narrowing of oil oversupply [5][8] - **Future Oil Price Projections**: Oil prices are expected to stabilize between $60 and $70 per barrel in the first half of 2026, with potential for a rise to $70-$80 in the latter half as supply-demand dynamics improve [13] Conclusion - The current commodity market is characterized by significant volatility, with specific sectors like precious metals and energy showing distinct trends. Investors should remain vigilant about timing and market signals to capitalize on emerging opportunities while navigating the inherent risks associated with geopolitical factors and supply chain dynamics.

Group 1: Market Performance - The performance of various ETFs shows significant declines, with the Nonferrous Metals ETF down by 10.01% over five days and 12.89% year-to-date, while the Gold ETF is down by 10.00% over five days and 8.94% year-to-date [1] - Gold and silver prices experienced a sharp drop, with gold spot prices falling to nearly $4,400 per ounce and silver approaching $71 per ounce, marking a historic decline of 9.25% on January 31 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for metal futures, increasing gold margin from 6% to 8% and silver from 11% to 15%, which significantly impacts market liquidity and may force speculative investors to liquidate positions [4] - The recent surge in gold prices above $5,500 per ounce and silver above $120 per ounce was driven by a combination of factors, including geopolitical tensions and a shift in investor confidence towards precious metals [4] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The long-term outlook for gold remains strong, supported by monetary easing, its safe-haven status, and the trend of de-dollarization globally, despite short-term volatility [9][10] - Central banks worldwide, including China, continue to increase their gold reserves, indicating sustained demand for gold as a strategic asset [10][13] - The potential for a super cycle in commodities is anticipated, driven by economic recovery and expansionary fiscal policies, particularly in the context of the upcoming U.S. midterm elections [18]

Group 1: Citadel's Entry into Industrial Metals - Citadel, a leading hedge fund based in the U.S., is entering the industrial metals market, marking a shift from its previous cautious stance towards this sector [1] - The firm has appointed Ylan Adler as a portfolio manager to oversee commodity allocations, with a focus on metal trading [1] - This move comes amid rising interest in industrial metals and precious metals trading among major investment institutions [1] Group 2: Surge in Metal Prices - Since the second half of 2025, prices for industrial metals like copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel have surged, with copper futures on the LME rising approximately 40% [2] - Gold prices have skyrocketed, with a historic increase of over 2% recently, surpassing $5000 for the first time, and achieving an 18% increase this month, potentially the largest monthly gain in 40 years [2] - Silver also experienced significant volatility, with a peak increase of over 10%, marking the largest intraday gain since the 2008 financial crisis [2] Group 3: Performance of Mining Companies - BHP Group Ltd. has regained its title as Australia's most valuable company, overtaking Commonwealth Bank of Australia, driven by the rising prices of metals [2] - The mining sector, including companies like BHP and Rio Tinto, is becoming a top choice for fund managers due to increased demand for industrial metals driven by AI and supply constraints [3] - The MSCI Metals and Mining Index has risen nearly 90% since 2025, outperforming major indices including those of semiconductor companies and global banks [3] Group 4: Citadel's Previous Success in Commodities - Citadel's commodity business has seen significant profits, earning approximately $8 billion in 2022, which has prompted competitors to follow its lead [5] - The firm has primarily focused on the energy market and has become one of the largest physical natural gas traders in the U.S. [5] - Despite previously avoiding basic metals trading, Citadel's stance has shifted due to market volatility and opportunities arising from geopolitical events [6] Group 5: Competitive Landscape in Metal Trading - Other major commodity trading firms have been expanding their metal trading operations, with competitors like Squarepoint becoming significant players in cobalt and aluminum markets [6] - The hiring spree in the metal trading sector has led to increased compensation packages for metal traders [6] - Citadel's hiring of Adler is seen as a cautious step compared to the aggressive recruitment strategies of its competitors [5]

紫金矿业 20260130 摘要 有色金属回调受多重因素影响：美元指数反弹、美联储政策预期变化、 美国与伊朗危机担忧缓和以及部分金属品种库存回升，共同导致了市场 波动，其中沪铝、沪铜、沪锡分别下跌 4%、3%和 8%。 尽管短期回调，但大宗商品超级周期长期看多，预计持续 3 年以上，受 大国博弈、战略收储、供应链重构和国内反内卷等多重因素驱动，2026 年有色板块仍有较大上涨空间，即使经历 1 月涨幅 30%后的调整，仍保 持 20%以上涨幅。 紫金矿业投资价值较高，核心逻辑在于看多铜价，预计 LME 铜价将达 1.5 万美元，沪铜达 12 万元。尽管年初至今跑输有色大盘，但随着铜价 上涨，其表现将逐步改善，当前宏观环境及供给端约束下，对紫金矿业 持乐观态度。 铜的表现落后于黄金，黄金已上涨 70%。预计未来资金将逐步流入铜市 场。紫金矿业持有紫金黄金国际 87%股份，后者涨幅超 60%，若后续 大票抛压结束，紫金矿业有望迎来补涨。 Q&A 为什么今天有色金属板块出现大跌？ 今天有色金属板块大跌的核心原因是昨晚贵金属价格的剧烈波动，特别是黄金 ETF 的波动率达到了历史峰值。通常，当波动率达到峰值时，黄金价格 ...

Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to see three major catalysts in 2026: 1) Interest margins are likely to stabilize as new loan rates reach a low point, and deposit repricing effects will continue to improve banks' funding costs [6][7] 2) Risks related to real estate exposure are expected to have peaked, with significant progress in mitigating financial risks in the real estate sector [6] 3) Retail business may show marginal improvement as credit risks ease and wealth management activities are expected to activate [6][7] - Investment strategies for 2026 suggest focusing on four main lines: 1) Increase allocation to high-quality city commercial banks with strong earnings elasticity, recommending Hangzhou Bank and paying attention to Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, Chongqing Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Xiamen Bank [5][7] 2) Allocate to high-dividend large banks, with a focus on Bank of China Hong Kong (H), CITIC Bank (H), China Construction Bank (H), and China Merchants Bank [5][7] 3) Pay attention to Shanghai Bank and Industrial Bank due to expected strong redemption of convertible bonds [5][7] 4) Consider banks with significant valuation discounts and potential for performance recovery, such as Minsheng Bank and Ping An Bank [5][7] Mechanical Equipment - The CDU liquid cooling pump is expected to benefit from the accelerated construction of AI data centers, as it plays a crucial role in regulating coolant flow and pressure, constituting 30%-40% of the liquid cooling system's value [9][10] - The market size for CDU liquid pumps is projected to reach between $1.139 billion and $1.544 billion in 2026, driven by the increasing demand for liquid cooling solutions as chip power exceeds the limits of air cooling [9][11] - The cooling source side of the liquid cooling system is also expected to benefit from the rapid development of AI data centers, with the global market for cooling water units projected to grow from approximately 105.21 billion yuan in 2024 to nearly 167.33 billion yuan by 2031 [10] Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX's application for an orbital data center system aims to reduce energy consumption from ground data centers, which may create significant incremental opportunities for rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [22][24] - The acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite constellations is expected to drive domestic leading rocket launch service providers to actively expand their satellite constellation-related businesses, creating new growth opportunities in upstream supply chain segments [22][24] - The construction of orbital data centers is anticipated to significantly reduce energy consumption, benefiting both rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [24] Fixed Income - The manufacturing PMI for January showed a significant seasonal decline, with the index at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [14][15] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased, while the construction sector's activity index fell below 40%, indicating a need for further economic stabilization measures [19] - The credit market is expected to face structural opportunities despite a less favorable recovery outlook in February, with a focus on medium to high-rated city investment bonds [42][47] Airline Industry - Air China is projected to report a net loss of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, with Q4 losses expected to be between 3.17 billion and 3.77 billion yuan, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous year [27][28] - Despite the projected losses, operational data for 2025 shows steady improvement, with available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increasing by 3.24% and 5.85% respectively [27][28] - The long-term demand for civil aviation in China is viewed positively, supported by the company's strong route network [28] Steel Industry - Fangda Special Steel is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected between 835 million and 998 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 236.90% to 302.67% [31][32] - The growth is attributed to increased production and sales volumes, along with a decline in raw material costs, which have helped restore steel margins [31][32] - The company is focusing on refined management and cost reduction strategies, alongside potential asset injections from its parent group [32] Home Appliances - The home appliance industry is experiencing a decline in production and sales, particularly in the air conditioning and refrigerator segments, with significant year-on-year decreases reported [34] - The introduction of innovative products like Clawbot is expected to reshape the AI assistant market, enhancing consumer engagement and operational efficiency [35] - Companies like Ecovacs and Ninebot are projected to see substantial profit growth in 2025, driven by new product launches and increased market penetration [36]