Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **commodity supercycle** and the impact of **anti-involution policies** on the **midstream materials and manufacturing industries**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Anti-Involution Policies**: Anti-involution policies may lead to a revaluation of midstream materials and manufacturing industries, similar to the utility price increase trend observed in 2023-2024. Focus on industries with negative ROC minus VAC indicators, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment** [1][2][5]. 2. **Drivers of Commodity Supercycle**: The commodity supercycle is driven by **de-globalization** and **de-dollarization**. De-globalization restricts factor flow, raising inflation, while de-dollarization leads to increased commodity pricing. Historical parallels are drawn to the 1970s commodity bull market due to similar conditions [3][9]. 3. **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The Renminbi's exchange rate is highly correlated with market trends. In the medium term, the price gap between China and the US supports Renminbi appreciation, although short-term risks from US debt issuance could pressure the A-share market [1][6]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to follow the **Barbell Strategy**, allocating 80% of investments to safe assets like **gold, banks, resources, and utilities**, and 20% to sectors with potential catalysts such as **domestic computing power, robotics, and Hainan Free Trade Zone** [1][7]. 5. **US Treasury Account and Interest Rates**: The US Treasury General Account (TGA) needs to be replenished quickly, which may lead to a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to near or above 5%. This could impact dollar liquidity and put pressure on the A-share market, particularly growth-style stocks [1][8]. 6. **Historical Context of Anti-Involution**: The current anti-involution policy is seen as part of a broader strategy to address economic deflation, with historical precedents in 1999 and 2015-2016. The focus should also be on demand-side policies [5][11]. 7. **Measuring Industry Involution**: The difference between ROIC and WACC serves as a measure of industry involution. Negative values indicate industries that are not creating value, with many midstream manufacturing and materials sectors currently in this state [12]. 8. **Recent Performance of Involved Industries**: Industries with high involution levels, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment**, have shown significant recent performance improvements, indicating potential investment opportunities [14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Commodity Price Trends**: From July 2022 to the present, gold and silver prices have increased by 100%, while platinum has risen by over 40%. Scarce metals have also seen significant price increases, suggesting a likely upward trend in commodity pricing [10]. 2. **Sector-Specific Insights**: Certain commodities like **alumina and live pigs** have seen price increases not due to anti-involution but rather as part of the broader commodity supercycle, indicating the complexity of market dynamics [15][16]. 3. **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: In the absence of a fundamental reversal in globalization trends, a suggested asset allocation strategy includes 80% in safe assets and 20% in technology and AI sectors, providing a balanced approach to risk management [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant market reversals in the domestic futures market driven by macro policies, supply-demand changes, and geopolitical events, highlighting historical trends and potential future implications. Group 1: Historical Market Trends - From 2001 to 2007, a super cycle in commodities was driven by the rapid industrialization of China post-WTO accession and a drop in U.S. interest rates to 1% [2][4]. - Notable price increases included copper rising from 15,000 CNY/ton in 2002 to 85,000 CNY/ton in 2006, and rubber increasing from 6,000 CNY/ton in 2001 to 30,000 CNY/ton in 2006, primarily due to infrastructure demands and supply constraints [3][4]. Group 2: Recovery Post-Financial Crisis - The period from 2008 to 2011 saw a recovery following the global financial crisis, with China's "four trillion" stimulus plan and loose monetary policy [6][7]. - Cotton prices surged from 10,000 CNY/ton in 2008 to 33,000 CNY/ton in 2010, driven by reduced production in Xinjiang and a recovery in the textile industry [7]. - Rebar prices increased from 3,400 CNY/ton in early 2009 to 5,000 CNY/ton in 2011, supported by infrastructure investments [8]. Group 3: Supply-Side Reforms - In 2016, supply-side reforms led to a reversal in the black series commodities market, with forced capacity reductions following years of overproduction [11][12]. - Coking coal prices rose from 515 CNY/ton at the end of 2015 to 1,600 CNY/ton in 2016 due to mine closures and production limits [13]. - Rebar prices increased from 1,616 CNY/ton to 3,500 CNY/ton, influenced by a recovery in real estate and infrastructure [14]. Group 4: Post-Pandemic Recovery and New Energy Revolution - The period from 2020 to 2021 was marked by a recovery from the pandemic, with global central banks injecting liquidity and China resuming production first [17][18]. - Copper prices rose from 35,000 CNY/ton in March 2020 to 78,000 CNY/ton in July 2021, driven by demand from green transition initiatives [18]. - The shipping index for Europe surged from 1,000 points in June 2020 to 10,000 points in October 2021, reflecting a recovery in global demand [18]. Group 5: Current and Future Trends - The period from 2023 to 2025 is characterized by geopolitical conflicts and resource nationalism, with significant events impacting supply chains [20][21]. - The ban on mining in Wa State in April 2023 led to a global tin supply crisis, with prices spiking due to reduced imports from China [21]. - The shipping index for Europe increased from 701.6 points in October 2023 to 4,769.9 points by July 2024, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply shortages [22]. Group 6: Key Insights - Market reversals are often triggered by sudden events (e.g., mine closures, wars) or strong policies (e.g., supply-side reforms, monetary easing) [25]. - Supply-demand mismatches, particularly under low inventory and rigid demand conditions, can lead to significant price volatility [25]. - The current market is in a "high volatility norm," with a focus on copper (due to new energy demand), shipping (geopolitical risks), and tin (resource scarcity) [26].