如果你尚未布局，切忌追高，可等待板块整体震荡时，再寻找拥有优质资源储量、估值合理的公司逢低 关注。记住，万亿之后，市场对其业绩兑现能力的要求会更高。 每一次市值纪元的突破，都预示着产业与资本逻辑的深刻变化。看懂它，才能把握趋势。 历史性时刻！朋友们，就在今天上午，"有色之王"紫金矿业股价大涨超6%，其A股总市值首次突破 1万 亿元 大关！我是帮主郑重。这不仅是一家公司的里程碑，更是整个有色金属和资源板块的高光时刻。 那么，关键问题来了：你认为紫金矿业突破万亿，是这轮有色金属行情的"高潮"，还是一个"新起点"？ 你是否看好整个资源板块的持续性？在评论区留下你的判断。 我的观点很明确：这绝不仅是个股行情。它标志着在 "全球再通胀" 和 "能源转型" 双重背景下，拥有顶 级资源和卓越运营能力的龙头公司，正获得前所未有的"稀缺性溢价"。 对于投资者，策略需清晰： 如果你已经持有，可以将其视为核心资产"底仓"之一，顺势而为，让利润奔跑。 回想二十年前，它还只是一家偏居福建的地方矿企。如今，它已成为在全球布局铜、金、锂等关键资源 的巨头。这个万亿市值，是 commodity super cycle（大宗商品超级周期）的馈 ...

2026 十大研判 20260105 2026 年 A 股市场将在康波萧条期迎来繁荣，大盘指数大概率创新高。 建议关注有色金属、新消费/大众消费、高端制造以及国产算力链条。 Q&A 2026 年中国经济和股市的核心逻辑是什么？ 2026 年中国经济和股市的核心逻辑是人民币汇率升值驱动，实体部门的现金 流量表已经改善，资产负债表也有望得到修复。随着美联储重启降息，跨境资 本将加速回流中国，这将带来 PPI 和 CPI 相继走出通缩。2025 年只是牛市的 前菜，而 2026 年将迎来估值和盈利的戴维斯双击。预计美联储可能会进行量 化宽松（QE），而中国央行也可能实施大规模化债政策，从而快速修复实体部 门的资产负债表。 为什么认为 2026 年是中国回归繁荣的起点？ 2018 年，中国人均 GDP 突破 1 万美元，正式进入工业化成熟期。这一阶段类 似于 1,945 年的美国和 1975 年的日本，制造业拥有强劲的对外出口能力，可 以赚取大量国民财富并改善内需消费景气。因此，从 2019 年开始，中国就进 入了康波萧条期作为追赶国的繁荣期。然而，由于美联储激进加息导致跨境资 本外流，以及房价暴跌导致居民和企业部门 ...

Core Conclusions - The report suggests that 2025 may be just the "prelude" to a bull market, with the Federal Reserve likely to restart interest rate cuts, leading to a rapid return of cross-border capital to China, which will help various price indices (PPI + CPI) emerge from "deflation" [1] - The report anticipates that in 2026, China will experience a period of prosperity similar to Japan in 1978, driven by the appreciation of the RMB, which will enhance cash flow statements and balance sheets in the real economy [1] Group 1: China’s Economic Outlook - China entered the current Kondratiev wave downturn in 2019, but the external constraints are gradually being lifted, allowing for a return to prosperity [1] - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025 will facilitate the recovery of cash flow statements for enterprises and households in China [1] - The anticipated quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve in 2026 will open up policy space for the People's Bank of China to implement similar measures, further aiding the recovery of balance sheets [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - The report highlights that the U.S. is currently in a Kondratiev wave downturn, with the stock market and economy on the brink of crisis due to over-reliance on AI investment narratives [2] - It notes that the U.S. stock market is at a "crisis edge," and the potential for liquidity shocks is high as cross-border capital begins to flow out of the U.S. [2] - The report warns that if AI investment expectations fall short, it could lead to a negative narrative impacting U.S. consumption and economic stability [2] Group 3: Global Liquidity Trends - The report predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely to shift towards QE, resulting in an increase in global liquidity [3] - It emphasizes that the primary goal of the Federal Reserve is to prevent liquidity shocks in the U.S. market, which will influence global capital flows [3] - The report suggests that the current tight liquidity in the U.S. is pressuring the Federal Reserve to adopt "quasi-QE" measures [6] Group 4: Currency and Capital Flows - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, cross-border capital is expected to accelerate its return to China, shifting the A-share market from a tech-focused trend to a cyclical recovery [7] - The report anticipates that the RMB exchange rate will likely break previous highs of 6.8 and 6.3, entering a long-term appreciation cycle [7] - It highlights that the RMB's appreciation will create a positive feedback loop, encouraging further capital inflows into China [7] Group 5: Commodity Supercycle - The report discusses a potential supercycle in commodities driven by de-globalization and a dollar crisis, with supply constraints likely to emerge as resource-rich countries tighten supply [9][10] - It suggests that the demand for commodities will remain resilient due to strategic stockpiling and supply chain improvements in various countries [10] - The report indicates that this supercycle could last for several years, with precious metals leading the way in revaluation [11] Group 6: Sectoral Opportunities - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including non-ferrous metals, consumer goods, and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from the recovery of cash flow and balance sheets [13] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors that are likely to achieve new highs, particularly in the context of the anticipated economic recovery [13] - The report suggests that the manufacturing sector will see a systematic recovery in valuations as cash flow statements improve [11]

大宗商品：尽管短期内白银逼仓等因素导致价格波动，但美元走弱和美 联储降息预期增强，长期来看大宗商品价格中枢向上，超级周期尚未结 束，受跨国博弈影响。 航空板块：2026 年航空板块前景乐观，元旦票价和客座率提升，中日 韩航线恢复，春节假期延长及春假政策利好出行，预计航空公司盈利将 恢复至甚至超过 2019 年水平。 快递行业：极兔在东南亚市场增速稳定，维持三年一倍股的推荐。顺丰 退出抖音退货件以保利润，建议关注底部顺丰股票。通达系快递公司需 等待明年一二月份数据验证。 有色金属：2026 年有色金属板块预计表现良好，但涨幅或不及 2025 年，估值角度看，起始节点估值低于 2025 年，EPS 修复确定性较高， 能源金属 PB 仍处于低位。 煤炭行业：煤炭价格下跌，但焦煤基本面坚挺。全社会库存超过去年同 期，但焦煤库存下降。动力煤价格可能因天气因素企稳，但高库存压制 反弹。建议逢低布局高股息煤炭公司。 Q&A 金银铜齐齐新高，周期怎么看？20251228 摘要 如何看待近期金银铜等大宗商品价格的上涨趋势？ 近期大宗商品价格表现强劲，黄金价格突破 4,600 元，白银在 COMEX 市场上 单日上涨 11 个百 ...

big picture, what what how are your is your screening or kind of your framework changing if at all for 2026. >> Well, I know I'm not the only one to say this. Hard assets, of course.I mean, we're seeing what's happening with the metals and how that's going to metriculate into other hard assets. Um I so I have not discounted agricultural sector which has been under a lot of pressure but yet we're seeing some nice moves this morning in soybeans for example sugar back at 15 cents. Uh I think you have to keep y ...

专题：2026年邮政金融论坛暨中邮证券策略报告会 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2025年12月3日，"2026年邮政金融论坛暨中邮证券策略报告会"在北京举行。中邮证券副总裁、首席经 济学家黄付生作《中国市场：渐入佳境》专题报告并发布全球资产配置观点。黄付生认为，2026年中国 权益市场将进入"长周期、结构性牛市"，债券市场转入震荡，大宗商品超级周期或逐步开启，全球资产 配置焦点将向中国倾斜。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：杨赐 专题：2026年邮政金融论坛暨中邮证券策略报告会 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2025年全球大类资产普涨，中国权益潜力巨大。2025年前11个月全球主要资产呈现"除比特币外全面上 涨"态势，其中，韩国综合指数、COMEX黄金涨幅均超60%，沪深300、恒生指数等涨幅 ...

Core Insights - The Barclays research report highlights that the ongoing upgrade of AI infrastructure will lead to a significant increase in demand for specific minerals and rare earth elements, benefiting mineral-exporting countries over a multi-year investment cycle [1][4]. Group 1: AI Investment and Commodity Demand - The demand for copper is particularly emphasized as the most prominent beneficiary among AI-driven commodities, with countries like Chile, Peru, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Australia expected to experience prolonged investment prosperity [1][5]. - The report estimates that capital expenditures from hyperscale cloud service providers will exceed $2.5 trillion over the next five years, indicating that related commodities such as energy, electrical infrastructure, and cooling systems will benefit from this AI investment cycle [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Trade Dynamics - Historical commodity booms, particularly those driven by China in the early 21st century, show that commodity-exporting countries saw significant increases in fixed capital formation, contributing to GDP growth [10][13]. - The report notes a positive correlation between high export growth and the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER), especially during commodity bull markets [14]. Group 3: Copper and Oil Price Decoupling - A notable feature of the current cycle is the decoupling of copper prices from oil prices, which traditionally moved in tandem. This decoupling is seen as a significant opportunity for investors [16][19]. - Countries that are major exporters of AI-critical minerals and net oil importers, such as Chile and Peru, will benefit from improved trade conditions, providing stronger support for their currencies [19][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Currencies - The report suggests that currencies like the Chilean peso, Peruvian sol, and Australian dollar are expected to perform well due to the copper-oil decoupling, indicating a new macroeconomic landscape driven by AI investments [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising significance of copper in the AI era, likening it to "new oil," and highlights the wealth accumulation of key players in the resource sector amid a super cycle in commodities [6][7][9]. Group 1: Copper and Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs' reports have significantly influenced global markets, particularly regarding copper's role in the AI era [6]. - A supply shock occurred when Indonesia's second-largest copper mine halted operations due to a landslide, leading to a surge in international copper prices [7]. - The demand for various metals, including copper, silver, and gold, has intensified, with copper being viewed as a critical resource for the future [7]. Group 2: Key Players in the Resource Sector - Yu Yong, the head of Hongshang Group, has become a notable figure in the current metals bull market, with his wealth increasing by over 40 billion yuan due to the rise in Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price [13][14]. - Yu Yong's investment strategy includes acquiring significant stakes in various mining operations globally, positioning his company as a major player in the copper and cobalt markets [17][20]. - The article highlights the strategic investments made by Yu Yong, including a series of acquisitions that have expanded Luoyang Molybdenum's global footprint [17][20]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Trends - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies in the resource sector, particularly in the context of the current super cycle [22]. - It notes that savvy investors like Yu Yong and others have capitalized on low points in the commodity cycle, investing billions in copper and cobalt [22]. - The article also mentions the growing trend of investing in gold, with significant profits reported by traders like Bian Ximing, who has successfully navigated the gold market [24][29].

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, dropping to $3751.9 per ounce before closing at $3780.5 per ounce, a 0.33% increase [1] - The U.S. Q2 GDP growth was revised up to an annualized rate of 3.8%, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest level since mid-July, and well below market expectations of 235,000 [1] Group 2 - Year-to-date, gold has risen approximately 42%, currently in a consolidation phase around $3780 per ounce [1] - Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, indicated that the recent pause in gold's upward trend is a healthy correction, suggesting that even a drop to $3600 per ounce would not significantly damage the overall bullish market structure [1] - Large institutional investors are reportedly still underweight in their gold holdings [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, initially dropping to $3751.9 per ounce before closing at $3780.5 per ounce, influenced by stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP growth and declining unemployment claims [1] Economic Indicators - The final annualized GDP growth rate for the U.S. in Q2 was revised up to 3.8%, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years [1] - The core PCE price index was adjusted from 2.5% to 2.6% [1] - Initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest level since mid-July, and well below the market expectation of 235,000 [1] Gold Market Analysis - Gold has seen a year-to-date increase of approximately 42%, currently in a consolidation phase around $3780 per ounce [1] - According to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, the recent pause in gold's upward trend is considered a healthy correction, and even a drop to $3600 per ounce would not significantly disrupt the overall bullish market structure [1] - Large institutional investors are reportedly still underweight in their gold holdings [1]