Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Iran - US conflict ends, crude oil prices are likely to fall. Geopolitical conflicts mainly cause short - term emotional premiums on oil prices, and after most Middle - East geopolitical events, the risk premium of crude oil will be quickly reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, returning to fundamental supply - demand pricing [3][4]. - If the current conflict subsides quickly and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [4]. - Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [4]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Impact of the End of the Iran - US Conflict on Crude Oil Prices - Geopolitical conflicts mainly bring short - term emotional premiums to oil prices, not long - term trends. After most Middle - East geopolitical events, the risk premium of crude oil will be quickly reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, returning to fundamental supply - demand pricing [4]. - If the conflict subsides quickly and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will fade [4]. - Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [4]. II. Trends of Crude Oil Chemical Sector and Futures when Crude Oil Prices Fall - Crude oil chemical futures generally follow the decline of crude oil but show structural differentiation [5]. - Direct oil - chemical products (such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE): The cost support weakens, and prices fall synchronously with crude oil. The greater the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5]. - Coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route products (such as coal - to - olefins, methanol): The cost is relatively independent, with stronger resistance to decline, and the decline range is smaller than that of pure oil - chemical products [6]. - Downstream processing sectors (such as plastic and rubber products): The cost pressure eases, the profit margin improves, and price transmission becomes smoother [6]. III. Key Influencing Factors and Rhythms - The speed of premium fading: The faster the conflict subsides, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, and the main decline is usually completed within 1 - 4 weeks [6]. - Inventory and positions: The concentrated closing of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline [6]. - Macroeconomics and supply - demand: If the global crude oil inventory rises, OPEC+ increases production or releases strategic reserves, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices; if the demand side remains stable, the decline range will be more moderate [6]. IV. Technical Analysis of Different Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After sufficient adjustment, it is expected to continue to fill the gap upwards tomorrow. It is recommended to go long on dips [8][9]. - **Gold**: The daily - level decline of gold is gradually stopping. After opening lower, it fluctuated higher throughout the day. It should be treated with a bullish and oscillating mindset in the future [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long - term, it is in the mine production capacity release cycle, and the expectation of loose supply still exists. The resumption of production of steel mills after the festival may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of policy and sentiment. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal still needs to wait [13][14]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has declined slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be regarded as a wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken [17][18]. - **Methanol**: Iran is China's largest source of methanol imports, accounting for more than 70%. The obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the expected maintenance of Iranian facilities, has sharply increased the expectation of import supply contraction, which has become the core driving force for this round of price increase. However, if the price remains high for a long time, terminal demand will be suppressed, forming a negative feedback. It should be treated as a high - level oscillation [19]. - **Pulp**: The trading sentiment in the spot market is average. Domestic pulp mills' production is within the normal range, and the pulp output will change little. The inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate, and the pressure continues. The previously shut - down facilities of downstream paper mills are gradually resuming production, and the overall pulp consumption continues to rise. The futures market has shown a range - bound trend recently [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Iran-US conflict subsides, crude oil prices are likely to fall. If the conflict is quickly resolved and the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to drop from its current high to the range of $62 - $73 per barrel [3][4] - When crude oil prices fall, the crude oil chemical sector and futures will follow the downward trend, but there will be structural differentiation [5] - The adjustment of the stock index futures is expected to end, and there is an expectation of recovery in the early trading tomorrow. It is recommended to go long on dips [8] - Gold is gradually stabilizing at the daily level. It is recommended to maintain a bullish and oscillating view [14] - For iron ore, the supply is expected to be loose in the medium and long term, and the terminal demand needs time to start. It is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal needs to wait [16][17] - For glass, the daily melting has declined slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall commodity sentiment. It should be viewed as a wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken [20][21] - For methanol, in March, due to geopolitical conflicts, the inventory in Chinese methanol ports decreased. As of March 25, 2026, the total inventory was 115.55 million tons, a decrease of 10.62 million tons from the previous period [23] - For pulp, the current futures price has broken through the low of nearly a year ago. Although there is still some downward space, it is relatively limited. There is some bottom support, and attention should be paid to position control [25] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Impact of the Iran - US Conflict on Crude Oil Prices - Geopolitical conflicts usually cause short - term emotional premiums on oil prices rather than long - term trends. After most Middle East geopolitical events, the risk premium of crude oil will quickly reverse within a few weeks to 2 - 3 months and return to the pricing based on supply and demand fundamentals [4] - If the current conflict is quickly resolved and the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to drop from its current high to the range of $62 - $73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will fade [4] - Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time. Currently, the probability of this scenario is low [4] 3.2 Trends of Crude Oil Chemical Sector and Futures When Crude Oil Prices Fall - The crude oil chemical futures will generally follow the decline of crude oil, but there will be structural differentiation [5] - Direct oil - chemical products (such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE) will see a weakening of cost support, and their prices will fall in sync with crude oil. The greater the previous increase, the more obvious the callback [5] - Coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route products (such as coal - to - olefins, methanol) have relatively independent costs and stronger resistance to decline, with a smaller callback amplitude than pure oil - chemical products [6] - Downstream processing sectors (such as plastic and rubber products) will see a relief of cost pressure, an improvement in profit margins, and smoother price transmission [6] 3.3 Key Influencing Factors and Rhythms - The faster the conflict is resolved, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures. Usually, the main decline is completed within 1 - 4 weeks [6] - The concentrated closing of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline [6] - If the global crude oil inventory rises, OPEC+ increases production, or strategic reserves are released, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices. If the demand remains stable, the decline amplitude will be more moderate [6] 3.4 Technical Analysis of Different Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The adjustment is expected to end, and there is an expectation of recovery in the early trading tomorrow. It is recommended to go long on dips [8] - **Gold**: It is gradually stabilizing at the daily level. After an intraday decline, it pulled back at the end of the session. It is recommended to maintain a bullish and oscillating view [14] - **Iron Ore**: The supply from Australia and Brazil maintains a normal rhythm. In the medium and long term, it is in the cycle of mine capacity release, and the supply is expected to be loose. The terminal demand needs time to start. It is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal needs to wait [16][17] - **Glass**: The daily melting has declined slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall commodity sentiment. It should be viewed as a wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken [20][21] - **Methanol**: In March, due to geopolitical conflicts, the inventory in Chinese methanol ports decreased. As of March 25, 2026, the total inventory was 115.55 million tons, a decrease of 10.62 million tons from the previous period [23] - **Pulp**: The current futures price has broken through the low of nearly a year ago. Although there is still some downward space, it is relatively limited. There is some bottom support, and attention should be paid to position control [25]

Group 1 - The recent ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, announced by Trump, led to a significant drop in Brent crude oil prices by 4.4% and WTI by 3.8% [3][4] - Analysts suggest that while the ceasefire is a positive development, it is unlikely to ignite a new bull market, with one expert describing it as a "gradual milestone" rather than a game changer [3][4] - The current global oil market is characterized by an oversupply, with OPEC+ recently announcing an increase in production and a decline in oil imports from major consumers like China and India [4][5] Group 2 - The potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut could weaken the dollar, indirectly raising oil prices, but it may also signal a slowdown in economic growth, leading to lower demand expectations [5][6] - Historical data indicates that while oil prices typically rise by an average of 12% during conflicts, they tend to retract 60% of those gains within three months [5][6] - Long-term forecasts predict a decline in Brent crude oil prices, with Goldman Sachs estimating an average price of $63 per barrel in 2025 and $58 in 2026, indicating a clear downward trend [5][6] Group 3 - Investment strategies suggested include focusing on the valuation recovery of energy stocks, particularly major players like ExxonMobil and Chevron, which are currently at historical low P/E ratios [5][6] - Attention should also be given to the oil and gas services sector, as the increase in U.S. shale oil rig counts suggests a potential rebound in upstream capital expenditures [5][6] - Despite short-term oil price declines, the long-term transition to renewable energy remains a critical trend, with sectors like solar and energy storage still considered worthy of long-term investment [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The potential military action by Israel against Iranian nuclear facilities has led to a significant increase in oil prices, raising concerns about the impact of escalating geopolitical conflicts on global oil markets [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Impact - The threat of an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites is contributing to heightened tensions in the Middle East, which historically affects oil supply and pricing dynamics [1] - Oil prices surged on Wednesday, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical developments [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The escalation of conflict is likely to lead to volatility in oil prices, with traders closely monitoring the situation for further developments [1] - The global oil market may experience disruptions if military actions occur, impacting supply chains and pricing strategies [1]