在美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动之后，欧洲市场出现连锁反应。 当地时间周一（5日），军工股等权重板块走势强劲，推动欧洲主要股指全线上扬。截至收盘，欧洲基 准股指欧洲斯托克600指数涨5.62点，涨幅0.94%，报601.76点，首次突破六百点关口，创下历史新高。 德国军工巨头莱茵金属收盘大涨9.4%，德国伦克集团收涨8%，瑞典萨博集团涨6.6%，意大利军工企业 列奥纳多涨6.3%，英国贝宜系统涨5.5%，法国泰雷兹涨4.7%。 德国DAX指数涨329.35点，涨幅1.34%，报24868.69点，同样收于纪录高位。英国富时100指数涨53.43 点，涨幅0.54%，报10004.57点，历史上首次收于一万点上方。 整体来看，欧洲市场避险情绪相对有限。尽管地缘政治风险骤然上升，但投资者并未大规模撤离风险资 产，欧股延续了去年以来的上行趋势。 英国研究机构凯投宏观（Capital Economics）在最新报告中表示，委内瑞拉经济体量在全球范围内占比 有限，其政治形势变化对全球经济和金融市场的直接冲击相对可控。该机构认为，美国此次行动短期内 不太可能对全球增长、贸易格局或金融稳定构成系统性风险。 一位不愿具名的市场人 ...

美国对委内瑞拉原油运输实施部分封锁、并对尼日利亚境内恐怖组织发动军事打击，受上述地缘政治情 势提振，美国原油价格势将创下自10月下旬以来的最大单周涨幅。 美国WTI原油价格稳定在每桶58美元上方，本周累计涨幅超过3%，有望创下自10月24日以来的最大单 周涨幅。特朗普政府继续对委内瑞拉实施封锁、加大施压之际，一艘被美国军方追截的受制裁油轮退至 大西洋深处。 美国原油价格年内累计下跌约18%，势将创下2020年以来的最大年度跌幅。这一跌势主要源于市场供应 过剩过剩预期。 在非洲方面，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，美军对尼日利亚境内的"伊斯兰国"组织目标发动了军事打 击。根据OPEC数据，该成员国11月的石油日产量约为150万桶。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 美国对委内瑞拉原油运输实施部分封锁、并对尼日利亚境内恐怖组织发动军事打击，受上述地缘政治情 势提振，美国原油价格势将创下自10月下旬以来的最大单周涨幅。 美国WTI原油价格稳定在每桶58美元上方，本周累计涨幅超过3%，有望创下自10月24日以来的最大单 周涨幅。特朗普政府继续对委内瑞拉实施封锁、加大施压之际，一艘被美国军方追截的受制裁油轮退至 大西洋深处。 美 ...

Group 1: Oil Price Surge - International oil prices experienced a sudden spike, with WTI and Brent crude oil rising sharply due to reports of the U.S. preparing new sanctions against Russia if Moscow does not agree to a peace plan regarding Ukraine. Brent crude futures saw an increase of up to 2.4%, surpassing $60 per barrel during trading [1]. Group 2: U.S. Actions Against Venezuela - President Trump ordered a complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, citing reasons such as asset theft, terrorism, drug trafficking, and human trafficking [2][4]. - The U.S. military seized a tanker near Venezuela, which was allegedly involved in transporting oil from Venezuela and Iran, as part of a broader strategy to enforce sanctions against entities supporting foreign terrorist organizations [6]. - The U.S. Treasury updated its sanctions list, adding six tankers related to Venezuela, while Venezuela's Foreign Minister condemned the seizure as an act of "international piracy" [6]. Group 3: Military Presence and Tensions - The U.S. has increased its military presence in the Caribbean near Venezuela, deploying F-35A fighter jets and EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft, indicating preparations for potential military action rather than mere symbolic displays of force [6]. - Venezuela's Defense Minister stated that surrender is not an option for the country, emphasizing readiness to defend against U.S. actions and asserting that the Venezuelan people are resisting what they perceive as U.S. imperialism [6][7].

北京时间12月17日晚，美股周三早盘涨跌不一，标普500指数小幅下滑。投资者正在权衡最新公布的美 国经济数据。 道指涨194.38点，涨幅为0.40%，报48308.64点；纳指跌57.75点，跌幅为0.25%，报23053.71点；标普 500指数跌4.80点，跌幅为0.07%，报6795.46点。 美国劳工统计局于周二早些时候发布了11月就业报告，其中也包含了10月的数据。这份报告揭示了今年 秋季因美国政府停摆导致联邦数据备份后，美国经济健康状况的真实情况。 报告显示，美国经济在10月减少了10.5万个工作岗位，失业率升至4.6%——为2021年9月以来的最高水 平。然而，11月新增了6.4万个非农工作岗位，高于接受道琼斯调查的分析师所平均预期的4.5万个。 该报告公布后，周二标普500指数下跌0.2%，道指收跌0.6%，均录得连续第三个交易日下跌。 受供应过剩担忧影响，当天美国WTI原油与ICE布伦特原油跌幅均超2.7%，其中美国WTI原油价格收于 2021年以来最低水平，拖累能源板块股票下跌。周二石油巨头埃克森美孚和雪佛龙股价大幅走低。 Unlimited Funds首席执行官Bob Elliott周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the sudden increase in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the potential new sanctions by the U.S. against Russia and the ongoing situation in Venezuela [2][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Surge - International oil prices saw a sharp increase, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising significantly amid reports of impending U.S. sanctions against Russia [2]. - Brent crude futures rose by as much as 2.4%, surpassing $60 per barrel during trading [3]. Group 2: U.S. Sanctions and Military Actions - President Trump announced a complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, citing reasons such as asset theft and terrorism [5][7]. - The U.S. military has seized a tanker near Venezuela, which was allegedly involved in transporting oil from Venezuela and Iran, as part of a broader strategy to enforce sanctions [9]. - The U.S. Treasury updated its sanctions list, adding six oil tankers linked to Venezuela, indicating a tightening of economic pressure on the country [9]. Group 3: Venezuelan Response - Venezuela's Defense Minister stated that surrender is not an option for the country, emphasizing readiness to defend against U.S. actions [11]. - The Venezuelan government has accused the U.S. of attempting to instigate regime change through military threats and has condemned the U.S. military presence in the Caribbean [11].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a sharp increase due to reports of the U.S. preparing new sanctions against Russia if Moscow refuses to accept a peace proposal regarding the Ukraine conflict [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Sanctions on Russia - The U.S. is considering new sanctions targeting the "shadow fleet" of oil tankers used for transporting Russian oil, as well as traders facilitating these transactions [4][5]. - These sanctions are being prepared to apply pressure on President Putin to accept a peace agreement with Ukraine, with potential announcements expected as early as this week [5]. - Ongoing negotiations between U.S. and Ukrainian representatives have made progress on potential peace agreement terms, although key issues remain unresolved [5]. Group 2: Impact on Oil Prices - Brent crude oil futures rose by as much as 2.4%, surpassing $60 per barrel, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of sanctions against both Venezuela and Russia [1][4]. - The recent actions taken by the Trump administration against Venezuela, including a comprehensive maritime blockade, have also contributed to the upward trend in oil prices [6].

北京时间12月17日晚，美股周三高开。投资者正在权衡最新公布的美国经济数据。 美国劳工统计局于周二早些时候发布了11月就业报告，其中也包含了10月的数据。这份报告揭示了今年 秋季因美国政府停摆导致联邦数据备份后，美国经济健康状况的真实情况。 报告显示，美国经济在10月减少了10.5万个工作岗位，失业率升至4.6%——为2021年9月以来的最高水 平。然而，11月新增了6.4万个非农工作岗位，高于接受道琼斯调查的分析师所平均预期的4.5万个。 该报告公布后，周二标普500指数下跌0.2%，道指收跌0.6%，均录得连续第三个交易日下跌。 Unlimited Funds首席执行官Bob Elliott周二表示："经济已经放缓了一段时间，市场此前抱有很大希 望……但现在随着这些数据出炉，所有这些希望基本上都破灭了。现在可能不是重仓股票的时候，而是 在年底之际，考虑在投资组合中增加一些固定收益资产。" 在经济方面，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）定于周三上午发表讲话。 交易员们也在关注周四即将公布的11月消费者价格指数（CPI） ...

在延迟发布的美国11月非农就业报告出炉后，全球金融市场周二（12月16日）出现明显分化。尽管就业数据表面上 略好于预期，但失业率上升、此前数据大幅下修等信号令投资者对美国经济前景保持谨慎，美股承压回落，原油价 格大幅下挫至多年低位，美元小幅走弱，而加密货币则在经历剧烈抛售后出现企稳反弹迹象。 非农"表强里弱" 美联储政策预期维持谨慎 美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布数据显示，11月非农就业人数增加6.4万人，好于市场预期的4.5万人，显示就业增长 在10月大幅下滑后出现反弹。 (来源：美国劳工统计局，金融时报) 然而，10月非农就业人数被确认减少10.5万人，同时失业率升至4.6%，高于市场预期的4.5%，创下四年来新高。 (来源：FactSet，金融时报) 分析人士指出，就业数据呈现出"强中透弱"的特征。一方面，就业增长仍在延续；另一方面，失业率上升、就业高 度集中于医疗等非周期性行业，再加上8月和9月就业数据被明显下修，均显示美国劳动力市场正在逐步降温。 市场对美联储短期政策路径的判断并未因本次非农出现明显变化。根据CME集团FedWatch工具，1月降息概率仍维 持在24%左右。 "美联储传声筒"Nick ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices have plummeted to a four-year low, with a significant drop of over 0.6 yuan per liter in just one year, reflecting broader economic implications and consumer sentiment [1] Group 1: Current Oil Prices - As of the latest data, WTI crude oil is priced at $58.23 per barrel, down 1.10%, while Brent crude oil has fallen to $61.91 per barrel [1] - The current price levels indicate a return to the lows seen four years ago, impacting consumer budgets and overall economic sentiment [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The oil market is experiencing a complex interplay of supply and demand, characterized by a "supply glut" due to increased production signals from Iraq, which is pressuring prices downward [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and uncertainties surrounding Venezuela's policies, contribute to market volatility and risk premiums [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Influence - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions significantly affect the strength of the dollar and global economic expectations, which in turn influence oil prices [4] - The next adjustment window for domestic oil prices is on December 22, with a current oil change rate of -0.89%, suggesting a potential price reduction of 40 yuan per ton [4] Group 4: Consumer Sentiment - There is a shift in consumer psychology from passive acceptance of rising prices to a more proactive wait-and-see approach regarding potential further declines in oil prices [4] - The emotional response to falling oil prices is mixed, with consumers feeling both relief and concern about the underlying economic implications of sustained low prices [6][7]

Group 1: U.S. Military Actions and Venezuela - U.S. President Trump has not yet decided whether to attack ground targets in Venezuela, despite reports suggesting imminent military action [2] - The Pentagon has increased military deployments in the Caribbean to the largest scale in 30 years, with a target list prepared for potential strikes [2] - Venezuela has been accused by its government of U.S. intentions to instigate regime change through military threats [2] Group 2: Oil Market Reaction - The oil market reacted quickly to the news, with WTI crude oil prices nearing $61.40 per barrel, reflecting a daily increase of over 1.3% [2] - Brent crude oil for January rose above $65.10 per barrel, with a daily increase of 1.2%, although gains later narrowed [2] Group 3: Gold Price Forecast - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices could rise to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong demand from ETFs and central banks amid economic uncertainty [3] - Gold has increased over 53% this year, reaching a recent high of $4,381.21 per ounce on October 20, before retreating by over 8% [3] - The report highlights potential downward risks for gold prices, including investor shifts to other asset classes and central banks reducing gold reserves [3] Group 4: Shipping Index Trends - The European shipping index futures experienced a decline of 2.54% after reaching a peak of 1,950 points, influenced by airlines lowering spot rates to attract cargo [4] - The index had been rising since mid-October, supported by improved macro sentiment and expectations of rising spot rates [4][5] - Analysts note that the current trading logic for the shipping index revolves around strong expectations versus weak realities, with supply and demand dynamics creating volatility [6] Group 5: Future Outlook for Shipping - Short-term macroeconomic benefits, capacity adjustments, and multiple price increase expectations are likely to support the shipping index [7] - The market anticipates a potential rise in rates in late November, but the actual improvement in cargo volumes will be crucial for sustaining price increases [7] - Analysts recommend monitoring shipping schedules and airline loading rates to manage risks associated with potential price adjustments [7]