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对二甲苯:跟随油价反弹,PXN逢高空,PTA:多PX空PTA,单边趋势反弹,MEG:需求预期好转,短期有反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 02:14
Group 1: Report Investment Ratings and Core Views - Report's industry investment suggestions: PX to follow oil price rebound and short PXN at high levels; PTA to go long on PX and short on PTA with a unilateral upward trend; MEG to expect demand improvement and short - term rebound [1] - Core view on PX: Cost - supported, with a unilateral upward - biased trend. PXN has declined as expected, and factories are advised to hedge when the spread is between $240 - $250. Supply - demand is slightly tight [7] - Core view on PTA: Demand is expected to improve marginally, supported by oil prices. New devices are planned to start, and the entire industrial chain's consumption is expected to improve [7] - Core view on MEG: Reduce short positions. Pay attention to the restart of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical's 800,000 - ton device in November and potential unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices [8] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Data - PX futures: Yesterday's closing price was 6496, up 46 (0.71%); PX1 - 5 spread was - 24, unchanged [2] - PTA futures: Yesterday's closing price was 4508, up 26 (0.58%); PTA1 - 5 spread was - 64, unchanged [2] - MEG futures: Yesterday's closing price was 4095, up 44 (1.09%); MEG1 - 5 spread was - 68, up 2 [2] - PF futures: Yesterday's closing price was 6160, up 24 (0.39%); PF12 - 1 spread was - 28, down 4 [2] - SC futures: Yesterday's closing price was 459.7, up 12.5 (2.80%); SC11 - 12 spread was - 3.9, up 0.2 [2] Spot Data - PX spot: Yesterday's price was $812/ton, up $13.67 [2] - PTA spot: Yesterday's price was 4430 yuan/ton, up 60 [2] - MEG spot: Yesterday's price was 4186 yuan/ton, up 64 [2] - Naphtha MOPJ: Yesterday's price was $573.12/ton, up $21.62 [2] - Dated Brent: Yesterday's price was $65.53/barrel, up $3.33 [2] Spot Processing Fee Data - PX - naphtha spread: Yesterday's price was $246.17, up $6.34 [2] - PTA processing fee: Yesterday's price was 144.83 yuan/ton, down 7.3 [2] - Short - fiber processing fee: Yesterday's price was 380.77 yuan/ton, down 0.5 [2] - Bottle - chip processing fee: Yesterday's price was 154.12 yuan/ton, up 14.48 [2] - MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread: Yesterday's price was - 4.34, unchanged [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics Summary - Crude oil: Oil prices rose after the US imposed sanctions on major Russian oil companies [2][3] - PX: Asian PX prices rose on October 23, following the increase in crude oil prices and supported by the improved sentiment in the downstream polyester industry [2] - PTA: Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 - million - ton device reduced its load, and some devices resumed. The PTA load on Thursday was 78.8%, and the current operating rate is around 84.6% [5] - MEG: A 500,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China stopped temporarily for 3 - 5 days. As of October 23, the overall operating load in mainland China was 73.28% (down 3.87% from the previous period). Two US MEG devices with a total capacity of 380,000 tons/year restarted [6] - Polyester: This week, there were no significant changes in polyester devices, and the polyester load remained stable. As of Thursday, the domestic polyester load was around 91.4%. The operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 75%. The sales volume of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester filaments increased locally today, with an average sales rate of around 100%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers declined, with an average sales rate of 77% [6] Group 4: Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 [7] - PTA trend intensity: 1 [7] - MEG trend intensity: 1 [7]