期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 09 日 对二甲苯：单边高位震荡市，关注月差正套 PTA：高位震荡市 MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7168 | 5086 | 3846 | 6490 | 416.2 | | 涨跌 | -118 | -64 | -33 | -54 | -0.1 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.62% | -1.24% | -0.85% | -0.83% | -0.02% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | 88 | 60 | -91 | -54 | -1.1 | | 前日收盘价 | 114 | 76 | -91 | -70 | -3 | | 涨跌 | -26 | -16 | 0 | 16 | 1.9 | | 现货 | PX ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 对二甲苯：短期高位震荡市 PTA：高位震荡市 MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7336 | 5150 | 3838 | 6532 | 428.2 | | 涨跌 | 126 | 104 | 106 | 70 | 6.5 | | 涨跌幅 | 1.75% | 2.06% | 2.84% | 1.08% | 1.54% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | 112 | 90 | -86 | -54 | -0.7 | | 前日收盘价 | 122 | 90 | -90 | -70 | 1.5 | | 涨跌 | -12 | 0 | 4 | 16 | -2.2 | | 现货 ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 05 日 对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市 PTA：成本支撑，高位震荡市 MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7260 | 5110 | 3803 | 6514 | 432.2 | | 涨跌 | -56 | -34 | -44 | -50 | -3.9 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.77% | -0.66% | -1.14% | -0.76% | -0.89% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -36 | -44 | -194 | -54 | -1.7 | | 前日收盘价 | -28 | -36 | -187 | -70 | -0.6 | | 涨跌 | -8 | -8 | ...

PX和PTA强预期修复利润， 乙二醇弱基本面下震荡筑底 聚酯月报 2026/01/04 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 从业资格号：F03136381 徐绍祖（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 PTA基本面 02 期现市场 05 MEG基本面 ◆ 行情回顾：上月价格大幅上涨，截至12月30日，05合约收盘价5152元，月同比上涨400元；华东现货价格5100元，同比上涨380元。基差和价 差方面，截至12月30日，基差-50元，月同比下跌12元；5-9价差94元，同比上涨34元。 ◆ 供应端：月底PTA负荷72.5%，月环比下降1.2%。十二月检修装置有所增加，整体负荷低于十一月。一月检修量预期仍然较多，平均负荷持稳。 ◆ 需求端：月底聚酯负荷90.4%，同比下降1.1%，其中长丝负荷89.2%，下降5.2%；短纤负荷96.2%，同比下降1.3%；甁片负荷73.4%，上升1.2%。 涤纶方面，库存压力较低，利润较差，利润压力叠加淡季来临，预期负荷将持续下降；甁片库存及利润偏稳定 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：成本驱动偏强 供应 国产供应端福佳大化100万吨装置重启，印度GAIL采购中东PX货源，为3-4月开车做准备。国内PX开工在88%。 需求 PTA国产装置方面，盘面05合约加工费上涨至300+元/吨，略显偏高，新凤鸣1期250万吨、中泰化学120万吨装置重启，开工率预计回升，未 来关注逸盛新材料360万吨检修计划，总体开工率维持在71%左右。 观点 成本支撑偏强，正套持有。1月3日，美国对委内瑞拉展开空袭并成功抓获总统马杜拉，市场预计该地原油出口短期或下滑30-60万桶/日，油价 在此背景下短线预计冲高，对PX形成估值上的支撑。 估值 PXN357美元/吨，石脑油负反馈，PXN持续扩大。PX-MX韩国FOB价差149美金/吨（-8），美国PX-MX价147美金/吨（+14），山东PX- MX价1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The refining profit is expected to recover, with sulfur providing incremental performance [1] - The supply-demand relationship for PX continues to improve, and profitability in the polyester segment is likely to recover [2] - The company benefits from the increase in gasoline and diesel crack spreads due to overseas refinery disruptions [3] - Significant increases in sulfur prices provide profit elasticity for the company [4] - The company is positioned for substantial profit recovery from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 1.38 billion, 2.27 billion, and 2.57 billion yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading private refining and chemical enterprise in China, with a processing capacity of 40 million tons of crude oil and significant production capabilities in PX and PTA [1][18] - The company has a diversified product range, including high-end materials and new energy products, with ongoing projects expected to launch between 2026 and 2027 [1][18] Market Dynamics - The domestic PX capacity is expected to see minimal expansion from 2024 to 2025, while downstream PTA and polyester capacities are projected to grow, enhancing PX pricing power [2] - Global gasoline and diesel crack spreads have surged due to disruptions in overseas refineries, benefiting the company's refined oil exports [3] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 227.81 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a slight year-on-year decline of 7.09%, but a net profit increase of 1.34% [39] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 indicate a significant recovery trajectory, with a 90.9% increase expected in 2025 [4][11] Future Outlook - The company is focusing on high-quality development, with strategic investments in new materials and partnerships with major players like Saudi Aramco [28][34] - The ongoing projects in high-end materials and new energy are expected to enhance the company's product chain and profitability in the coming years [28][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The refining profit is expected to recover, with sulfur providing incremental performance [1] - The supply-demand relationship for PX continues to improve, and profitability in the polyester segment is likely to recover [2] - The company benefits from the increase in gasoline and diesel crack spreads due to overseas refinery disruptions [3] - Significant price increases in sulfur are expected to enhance the company's profit margins [4] - The company is positioned for substantial profit recovery from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 1.38 billion, 2.27 billion, and 2.57 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 90.9%, 64.2%, and 13.1% [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading private refining and chemical enterprise in China, with a processing capacity of 40 million tons of crude oil and significant production capabilities in PX and PTA [1][18] - The company has a diverse product range, including high-end materials and new energy products, with ongoing projects expected to launch between 2026 and 2027 [1][18] Market Dynamics - The domestic PX capacity is expected to see minimal expansion from 2024 to 2025, while downstream PTA and polyester capacities are projected to grow, improving the supply-demand balance [2] - Global gasoline and diesel crack spreads have surged due to disruptions in overseas refineries, benefiting the company's export capabilities [3] Financial Projections - The company anticipates a significant recovery in profitability, with net profit forecasts showing substantial growth over the next three years [4][11] - Revenue from chemical products, refining, PTA, and polyester films is expected to contribute significantly to the company's overall income, with stable margins in the refining segment [21][39] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its product chain through investments in high-end materials and new energy sectors, aiming for a comprehensive industrial layout [1][28] - The introduction of strategic investors like Saudi Aramco is expected to bolster the company's long-term growth prospects [34][28]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level volatile market [1][6] - PTA: High-level volatile market [1][7] - MEG: Limited upside space, medium-term pressure, price range volatile market [1][8] Core Views - PX is expected to maintain a high-level volatile market due to increased supply and decreased demand, but the tight balance pattern cannot be falsified for now [6] - PTA is in a high-level volatile market with supply reduction and demand increase, leading to continuous inventory depletion and positive impacts on monthly spreads and basis [7] - MEG is in a price range volatile market. Although the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change, the supply is expected to shrink, and the inventory accumulation expectation has marginally improved [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - An 700,000-ton PX unit in the Northeast is currently restarting, and its capacity will expand to 1 million tons/year after restart [2] - A 3.6-million-ton PTA unit in East China is currently increasing its load [2] - A 550,000-ton/year MEG unit in Saudi Arabia has returned to normal operation, and another 450,000-ton/year MEG unit will undergo planned maintenance in Q1. Two 700,000-ton/year MEG units are in different states of parking and restart [2][3] - A 200,000-ton polyester unit in Wujiang and a 300,000-ton polyester bottle chip unit in South China have restarted, while a 200,000-ton direct-spun polyester staple fiber factory in Anhui plans to stop for maintenance on January 28 and restart in early March, and a 1.2-million-ton polyester bottle chip factory in Jiangyin plans to stop for maintenance in mid-January and restart in March [5] Price Quotes - **Futures**: PX, PTA, PF prices rose, SC price fell, and MEG price slightly increased. Some of their monthly spreads also changed [2] - **Spot**: PX, PTA, MEG, and Dated Brent prices increased, and the prices of other spots also changed to varying degrees [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX-naphtha price spread, PTA processing fee, and short fiber processing fee increased, while bottle chip processing fee decreased, and MOPJ naphtha-Dubai crude oil price spread slightly increased [2] Trend Strength - The trend strength of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: High-level volatile market, pay attention to position management before the holiday. Supply is marginally loosening, and demand is decreasing, but the tight balance pattern persists [6] - **PTA**: High-level volatile market, pay attention to position management before the holiday. Supply is decreasing, demand is increasing, and inventory is continuously depleted [7] - **MEG**: Supply is expected to shrink, price range volatile market. Although the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change, the situation has marginally improved [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Trend is strongly positive [1] - PTA: Cost support is strongly positive [1] - MEG: Valuation rebounds from the bottom, but there is still pressure in the medium term [1] Core Viewpoints - PX: The unilateral price trend is strongly positive and squeezes downstream profits. Pay attention to the long PX and short PF/PR/BZ/EB positions, and the 5 - 9 calendar spread positive arbitrage. Despite polyester factory production cuts, the tight PX supply expectation cannot be falsified in the short - term [9]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, the unilateral trend is upward, with positive arbitrage. Go long PTA and short PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB. Tight PX supply supports the cost and continues to squeeze downstream profits [9]. - MEG: Affected by the news of a 720,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan planning to shut down next month, the ethylene glycol market rose, with short - covering accelerating the increase. The shutdown is expected to reduce mainland imports by 40,000 - 50,000 tons per month. Current MEG valuation is low, causing domestic plants to enter the loss zone and some to consider reducing production. However, high port inventories and polyester production cut expectations limit the upside [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures**: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had closing prices of 7,294, 5,094, 3,818, 6,484, and 444.7 respectively yesterday. The price changes were - 8, 12, 195, 32, and 3.8, with percentage changes of - 0.11%, 0.24%, 5.38%, 0.50%, and 0.86% respectively [2]. - **Calendar Spreads**: PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 had closing prices of - 82, - 66, - 152, - 54, and - 0.3 respectively yesterday. The price changes were - 16, 2, - 33, 16, and - 1.2 respectively [2]. - **Spot**: PX CFR China was 901 dollars/ton, PTA in East China was 5,018 yuan/ton, MEG spot was 3,598 yuan/ton, naphtha MOPJ was 540.25 dollars/ton, and Dated Brent was 63.52 dollars/barrel yesterday. The price changes were 5, 63, 76, - 2, and 0.45 respectively [2]. - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing margin, short - fiber processing margin, bottle - chip processing margin, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread were 335.45, 150.47, 221.69, 40.59, and - 4.23 respectively yesterday. The price changes were 30.34, - 28.15, - 24.11, - 61.21, and 0.11 respectively [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: A 200,000 - ton PX plant in Japan is currently restarting after a shutdown in mid - September. A 700,000 - ton PX plant in the Northeast plans to restart this weekend, with capacity expected to expand to 1 million tons after restart. A 390,000 - ton PX plant in North China is shut down, and the restart time is undetermined [2]. - **PTA**: In November, China's PTA exports increased by about 61% compared to October, with a significant increase in Indian buyers' interest. India bought 69,802 tons of PTA in November, more than five times the amount in October. Vietnam's imports increased slightly to 34,120 tons in November. Egypt's imports also increased by about 53% to 92,052 tons [5]. - **MEG**: From December 22 to December 28, the expected arrivals at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, and Ningbo are about 15,000 tons, 89,000 tons, and 14,000 tons respectively. Two MEG plants in Taiwan with a total capacity of 720,000 tons/year plan to shut down next month, and the restart time is undetermined. An Iranian 500,000 - ton/year MEG plant has restarted recently [6]. - **Polyester**: The total planned production cuts of three major polyester filament manufacturers are about 2.494 million tons, including 1.61 million tons of POY and 883,000 tons of FDY. A 200,000 - ton polyester plant in Tongxiang has shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. On December 24, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 80%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on December 24 was generally weak, with an average of about 40% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Trend is strong [1][5][6] - PTA: Cost support is strong [1][6] - MEG: Demand is weak, and unilateral price continues to decline, with a weak mid - term trend [1][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: The unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Despite the planned polyester factory production cuts, the expectation of tight PX supply cannot be falsified in the short - term, and the short - term trend is strong. Attention should be paid to long PX and short PF/PR/BZ/EB positions, as well as the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [5][6] - PTA: With strong cost support, the unilateral trend is upward. It is recommended to hold long PTA and short PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB positions and positive spread arbitrage. The tight PX supply provides cost support and continues to squeeze downstream profits. The short - term trend remains strong [6] - MEG: It is in a unilateral volatile market, and the mid - term trend is still weak. Polyester production cuts are negative for ethylene glycol demand, increasing the inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to whether unplanned production cuts and overhauls can be implemented. The short - term trend is weak, and a short - position allocation is maintained [6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PX - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the PX futures closing price was 7302, up 44 (0.61%); the PX1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 66, down 32; the PX CFR China spot price was 896 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars; the PX - naphtha spread was 335.45, up 30.34 [2] - **Market Dynamics**: On December 24, 2025, the naphtha price fell in the late session. The 3 - month Asian PX spot was traded at 896 dollars/ton. The Asian PX price continued to rise on December 23, 2025, after a brief decline in the Asian morning session. A PX producer said the recent spot price jump was mainly due to futures rather than supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][5] 3.2 PTA - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the PTA futures closing price was 5082, up 42 (0.83%); the PTA1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 68, unchanged; the PTA East China spot price was 4955 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the PTA processing fee was 150.47, down 28.15 [2] 3.3 MEG - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the MEG futures closing price was 3623, down 112 (- 3.00%); the MEG1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 119, up 2; the MEG spot price was 3522, down 93 [2] 3.4 Polyester - **Production Cuts**: Some major Chinese polyester producers may consider reducing the production of some products. It is reported that three major polyester filament manufacturers will implement a 10% increase in POY production cuts on Wednesday this week, and continue the previous 15% FDY production cuts [5]