期 货 研 究 2026 年 03 月 06 日 对二甲苯：高位震荡市，多 PX 空 PTA PTA：高位震荡市 MEG：高位震荡市 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 8344 | 5820 | 4184 | 7280 | 664.1 | | 涨跌 | 256 | 126 | 106 | 122 | 23 | | 涨跌幅 | 3.17% | 2.21% | 2.60% | 1.70% | 3.59% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | 昨日收盘价 | 316 | 182 | 24 | -188 | -3.3 | | 前日收盘价 | 190 | 98 | -7 | -148 | 5.2 | | 涨跌 | 126 | 84 | 31 | -40 | -8.5 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 03 月 05 日 对二甲苯：高位震荡市，多 PX 空 PTA PTA：高位震荡市 MEG：高位震荡市 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 期货 PX 主力 PTA 主力 MEG 主力 PF 主力 SC 主力 昨日收盘价 8088 5694 4078 7158 641.1 涨跌 104 86 53 80 68.8 涨跌幅 1.30% 1.53% 1.32% 1.13% 12.02% 月差 PX5-9 PTA5-9 MEG5-9 PF3-4 SC2-3 昨日收盘价 190 98 -7 -148 5.2 前日收盘价 98 42 -48 -254 -11.7 涨跌 92 56 41 106 16.9 现货 PX CFR 中国（美 金/吨） PTA 华东（元/吨） MEG 现货 石脑油 MOPJ Dated 布伦特 (美 金/桶) 昨日价格 1026.83 5605 3974 776.5 81.16 前日价格 1019.17 5535 3928 737.25 84.87 涨跌 7.66 70 46 39 ...

贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 期 货 研 究 2026 年 03 月 03 日 对二甲苯：地缘影响下，成本推涨 PTA：成本支撑偏强 MEG：单边趋势偏强 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7836 | 5552 | 3925 | 7002 | 527.8 | | 涨跌 | 442 | 302 | 222 | 350 | 39.4 | | 涨跌幅 | 5.98% | 5.75% | 6.00% | 5.26% | 8.07% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | 昨日收盘价 | 30 | 14 | -107 | -254 | 4.5 | | 前日收盘价 | -26 | -26 | -132 | -62 | 4.4 | | 涨跌 | 56 | 40 | 25 | -192 | 0.1 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PT ...

期 货 研 究 PX：尾盘石脑油价格上涨，3 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 620 美元/吨 CFR。2 月 26 日 PX 价格小幅反弹，两 单 4 月亚洲现货均在 929 成交。尾盘实货 4 月在 929/931 商谈，5 月在 928/937 商谈。2 月 26 日 PX 估价在 931 美元/吨，较 2 月 25 日上涨 2 美金。 2026 年 02 月 27 日 对二甲苯：跟随成本波动，区间震荡市 PTA：跟随成本波动，区间震荡市 MEG：区间震荡市，多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7382 | 5260 | 3700 | 6658 | 483.6 | | 涨跌 | -50 | -52 | -47 | -64 | -4.7 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.67% | -0.98% | -1.25% | -0.95% | -0.96% | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Cost support is strong, and PX is expected to rise after the holiday. Go long on PXN and engage in 5 - 9 calendar spread trading. The PX - naphtha spread has recovered to $327/ton. The PX operating rate remains high, and the polyester operating rate is gradually recovering. The industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [1][7]. - PTA: Supported by costs, the short - term trend is strong. The PTA futures opened with a catch - up increase on the first day. It accumulates inventory from January to February and enters a de - stocking pattern from March. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 calendar spread. The downstream polyester price has increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [1][7]. - MEG: It is in a range - bound market. Go long on PTA and short on MEG. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate remains high, and it is in a significant inventory accumulation pattern from February to March. The price has limited downside but the upside is not yet open, so maintain range - bound operations [1][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 7432, 5312, 3747, 6722, and 488.3 respectively, with changes of - 46, - 40, 10, - 68, and - 5, and percentage changes of - 0.62%, - 0.75%, 0.27%, - 1.00%, and - 1.01% [2]. - **Calendar Spreads**: The closing prices of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 calendar spreads on the previous day were 20, 14, - 118, - 98, and 5 respectively, with changes of - 6, - 18, - 6, - 32, and 5.6 compared to the day before [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent on the previous day were $928.67/ton, 5285 yuan/ton, 3658 yuan/ton, $616/ton, and $70.78/barrel respectively, with changes of - 4, 0, 10, 2.5, and - 0.55 [2]. - **Spot Processing Margins**: The spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil on the previous day were $297.55/ton, 412.68 yuan/ton, 106.87 yuan/ton, 240.63 yuan/ton, and - $4.34/ton respectively, with changes of - 2.66, - 17.01, 81.21, 40.06, and 0 [2]. 3.2 Market Trends - **PX**: On February 25, the PX price declined, and the raw material trend was generally weak. The negotiation and transaction level of PX also fell after rising. The spot transaction atmosphere was okay, and the 4 - and 5 - month spot maintained a - 2 C structure. The floating price fluctuated within a narrow range [3]. - **Polyester**: A 500,000 - ton polyester plant in Ningbo is being heated up and is planned to restart tomorrow, with products expected around the Lantern Festival. Another 250,000 - ton polyester plant in Ningbo is planned to start heating up on March 1 and feed on March 4. A large - scale polyester industrial yarn plant in Huzhou is restarting, and a 200,000 - ton polyester plant in Huzhou restarted on February 24. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on February 25 were sluggish, with an average sales rate of about 20% by 3:30 p.m. The sales rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber plants was highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 51% by 3:00 p.m [5][6]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **PX**: The supply side has a high operating rate, with the Asian PX operating rate at around 84%. South Korea's PX exports increased significantly in the first 20 days of February. The demand side has a PTA operating rate of around 75%, and the polyester operating rate is gradually recovering [7]. - **PTA**: It accumulates inventory from January to February and enters a de - stocking pattern from March. The downstream polyester price has increased, and the industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [7]. - **MEG**: The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate remains high, with the coal - based plant operating rate reaching 83%. It accumulates inventory during the Spring Festival, and is in a significant inventory accumulation pattern from February to March [8].

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market experienced a significant increase in activity in January, with trading volume reaching 912 million contracts and turnover hitting 100.26 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 65.09% and 105.14% respectively [1][2] - The total funds in the futures market grew by over 400 billion yuan, reaching a historical high of 2.57 trillion yuan by the end of January, with client equity increasing to approximately 2.39 trillion yuan, a 19% rise compared to the end of 2025 [1][5] Trading Volume and Turnover - In January, the trading volume across various exchanges showed substantial growth: Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) at 307.67 million contracts (up 102.40%), Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) at 234.35 million contracts (up 43.61%), and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) at 287.79 million contracts (up 53.56%) [2] - The turnover also saw impressive increases, with SHFE at 51.96 trillion yuan (up 278.92%) and ZCE at 7.75 trillion yuan (up 14.73%) [2] Commodity Performance - The top traded commodities by turnover included silver, gold, and copper on SHFE, while ZCE saw high activity in PTA, cotton, and caustic soda [3] - By volume, the leading commodities were silver, nickel, and fuel oil on SHFE, with PTA, glass, and methanol on ZCE [3] Market Drivers - The increase in trading volume and turnover is attributed to the internationalization of futures products and the growing asset allocation value, particularly in precious and non-ferrous metals [4] - The demand for hedging against price risks due to global commodity price fluctuations has also contributed to the increased use of futures tools by enterprises [4] Fund Growth and Market Participation - The total funds in the futures market rose to approximately 2.57 trillion yuan by the end of January, marking a 20% increase from the end of 2025, while client equity reached 2.39 trillion yuan, up 19% [5] - The number of new futures clients increased significantly, with 940,000 new accounts opened in 2025, reflecting a strong interest from various market participants [5][6] Market Structure and Development - The futures market is witnessing a steady expansion in client base and structural optimization, with the total number of effective clients reaching 2.78 million, an 11% increase year-on-year [6] - The continuous high-quality development of the futures market is evident, with improved service to the real economy and a robust trading environment [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral oscillating market, weakening monthly spread [2] - PTA: Range - bound oscillating market [2] - MEG: Range - bound operation [2] 2. Core Views - PX: Before the festival, it's a range - bound oscillating market with support below, conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage. In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain gradually weakens. PX operating rate rises, PXN processing fee is continuously compressed, and try shorting PTA processing fee when it is above 450 [11] - PTA: The downward space may be limited, monthly spread is bearish. Try shorting PTA processing fee when it is above 450. Pay attention to the 5100 yuan/ton support for the unilateral position [11] - MEG: Inventory continues to rise, supply pressure is still high. Conduct basis and monthly spread reverse arbitrage operations. The monthly spread and basis trends remain weak [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Yesterday's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF and SC were 7308, 5230, 3733, 6626 and 476.1 respectively. Their price changes were 18, 38, - 6, 20 and 11.9, and the price change rates were 0.25%, 0.73%, - 0.16%, 0.30% and 2.56% respectively [4] - For the monthly spreads, the closing prices of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4 and SC2 - 3 yesterday were 8, 28, - 108, - 74 and - 2.7, with price changes of - 8, 20, 2, 6 and - 2.8 respectively [4] 3.2 Spot Market - Yesterday's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ and Dated Brent were 909 dollars/ton, 5145 yuan/ton, 3625 yuan/ton, 612.38 dollars/ton and 72.04 dollars/barrel respectively. Their price changes were 8.67 dollars/ton, 37 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, 14.5 dollars/ton and - 0.07 dollars/barrel respectively [4] - Yesterday's spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, staple fiber processing fee, bottle chip processing fee and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 294.05 dollars/ton, 378.86 yuan/ton, 71.28 yuan/ton, 294.17 yuan/ton and - 4.34 dollars/ton respectively. Their price changes were 5.96 dollars/ton, - 49.15 yuan/ton, 29.19 yuan/ton, 70.13 yuan/ton and 0 dollars/ton respectively [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - PX: Asian xylene prices were evaluated as rising in the upstream market. The CFR Unv1/China and FOB South Korea quotes of Asian paraxylene on February 10 were 909 dollars/ton and 888 dollars/ton respectively, with a single - day increase of 8.67 dollars/ton. The PX - naphtha physical spread shrank to 296.625 dollars/ton on that day, with an intraday decrease of 5.83 dollars/ton [5][7] - PTA: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China was expected to stop on the evening of February 10, and the specific restart time was undetermined [8] - MEG: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the statistical period was extended to February 23. From February 9 to February 23, the expected arrival quantities in Zhangjiagang, Taicang, Ningbo and Shanghai were about 97,000 tons, 63,000 tons, 21,000 tons and 0 tons respectively, and the total planned arrival quantity at the main ports was about 181,000 tons [8] - Polyester: A 460,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Jiangyin gradually reduced production to 350 tons per day from February 10 for half a month. A 200,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Fujian stopped for maintenance from February 10, and another 250,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory reduced production by 30% from February 10 [8] 3.4 Market Sales - On February 10, most direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories had no sales. As of around 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 31% [9] - On February 10, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to be weak. As of around 4:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was estimated to be around 20% [9] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [10] 3.6 Supply and Demand Analysis - PX: In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain gradually weakens. PX operating rate rises to 89.5% (+0.3%), and the Asian device operating rate is 82.4% (+0.8%). The PTA demand side has no obvious change and remains at 77.6% (+1%) [11] - PTA: The terminal demand is that domestic textile sales ended in January, foreign trade has orders, and the polyester operating rate is expected to be 80.5% in February and recover to 91% in March. The current polyester inventory is moderately low, and the pressure after the festival is less than in previous years [11] - MEG: The supply side has an increasing operating rate this week, reaching 76.22% (+1.85%). Overseas device supply will decrease significantly in March. However, due to the large - scale shutdown of polyester on the demand side, the inventory accumulation pressure in February is large, and it is difficult to digest the inventory after the festival [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level shock market before the holiday, with a bearish view on the monthly spread [7] - PTA: Range-bound shock market, with a bearish view on the monthly spread [8] - MEG: Range-bound shock market, operate within the range of 3700 - 4000 [9] 2. Core Views - The overall market of PX, PTA, and MEG is in a state of high-level or range-bound shock, with varying degrees of bearishness on spreads and a general trend of inventory accumulation [7][8][9] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs PX - **Price and Market Conditions**: On February 3, the PX price rebounded, with multiple spot transactions. The PX valuation was 897 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars from the previous day. The PX-石脑油 spread in January averaged 342.17 dollars/ton, higher than that in December. The PX futures closed higher, and the buying interest in CFR Unv1/China goods in March and April was strong [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The upstream performance was mixed. The domestic PX device restarted, and the domestic device operating rate rose to 89.2%. The Asian device operating rate was 81.6% (+1%). The PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 76.6%. The PX entered the inventory accumulation pattern, and the monthly import volume in the first quarter increased to about 900,000 tons [7] - **Trading Suggestions**: High-level shock market before the holiday, monthly spread anti-arbitrage. Try shorting PTA processing fees when they are above 450 [7] PTA - **Price and Market Conditions**: The PTA spot price fell to 5080 yuan/ton, with a weak basis and light trading volume after the price increase [5][8] - **Fundamentals**: The polyester operating rate was expected to be 88% in January, 80.5% in February, and 91% in March. The current polyester inventory was neutral, and the rigid demand for PTA was expected to decline marginally. The PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 76.6%, and the new Fengming 2.5 million tons was planned to be overhauled in February, which could not change the inventory accumulation pattern from January to February [8] - **Trading Suggestions**: Range-bound shock market, monthly spread bearish. Try shorting PTA processing fees when they are above 450. Pay attention to the support at 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [8] MEG - **Price and Market Conditions**: A 500,000 tons/year MEG device in South China restarted, with a load of over 80%. The arrival volume at major ports from February 2 to 8 was about 123,000 tons [5] - **Fundamentals**: The device operating rate rose to 74.4% (+1.3%). The import volume of ethylene glycol from January to February remained high, with an average monthly volume of over 700,000 tons. The weekly arrival volume decreased to 120,000 tons. The downstream polyester operating rate was expected to decline marginally in the short term, and the rigid demand for MEG weakened, making it difficult to change the inventory accumulation pattern [9] - **Trading Suggestions**: Range-bound shock market, operate within the range of 3700 - 4000 [9] Polyester - The sales volume of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on February 3 was generally light, with an average sales volume estimated at 10 - 20% by 3:45 pm. The sales volume of direct-spun polyester staple fiber factories was highly differentiated, with an average sales volume of 57% by 3:00 pm [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Followed the sharp decline in oil prices, with an interval shock market [1] - PTA: Interval shock market [1] - MEG: Interval operation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a pre - holiday unilateral shock market, with fundamentals gradually weakening and entering a inventory accumulation pattern. Consider the long PX and short EB hedge [8] - PTA is in an interval shock market with a bearish monthly spread. Short when the processing fee is above 450. Pay attention to the support in the 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton interval [9] - MEG is in a unilateral interval shock market. The supply pressure is still high, but the downside space below 3600 yuan/ton is limited, and the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [10] 3. Key Points by Related Content Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the main contract was 7150, down 250 or 3.38% from the previous day. The PX5 - 9 spread closed at 20, up 4 from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The closing price of the main contract was 5092, down 178 or 3.38% from the previous day. The PTA5 - 9 spread closed at - 8, up 4 from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The closing price of the main contract was 3767, down 146 or 3.73% from the previous day. The MEG5 - 9 spread closed at - 104, up 1 from the previous day [2] - **PF**: The closing price of the main contract was 6484, down 172 or 2.58% from the previous day. The PF3 - 4 spread closed at - 48, up 8 from the previous day [2] - **SC**: The closing price of the main contract was 449, down 21.8 or 4.63% from the previous day. The SC2 - 3 spread closed at - 7.2, down 2 from the previous day [2] Spot Market - **PX**: The CFR China price was 891.67 dollars/ton, down 22.66 dollars from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 316.83 dollars/ton, down 8.17 dollars from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The East China price was 5125 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan from the previous day. The processing fee was 485.25 yuan/ton, up 86.82 yuan from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The spot price was 3712 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan from the previous day [2] - **Naphtha MOPJ**: The price was 581.38 dollars/ton, down 15.12 dollars from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - **Dated Brent**: The price was 68.77 dollars/barrel, down 3.94 dollars from the previous day [2] Fundamental Data - **PX**: On February 2, the PX price fell. The 3 - month MOPJ was estimated at 571 dollars/ton CFR. The PX was estimated at 891 dollars/ton, down 22 dollars from last Friday. The domestic device start - up rate rose to 89.2%, and the Asian device start - up rate was 81.6% (+1%) [3][8] - **PTA**: A 100 - million - ton PTA device in the southwest is preparing to restart. The PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 76.6%. The polyester start - up rate is expected to be 88% in January, 80.5% in February, and 91% in March [3][9] - **MEG**: On February 2, the port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 89.7 million tons, an increase of 3.9 million tons from the previous period. The device start - up rate rose to 74.4% (+1.3%). The import volume from January to February will remain high, with a monthly average of over 70 million tons [3][10] Polyester Market - Two polyester devices in Shaoxing with a total of 40 million tons and two with a total of 55 million tons are planned to be shut down for maintenance starting from the 5th. A 20 - million - ton polyester device in Huzhou has been shut down for maintenance since the weekend [5] - In January, the average sales volume of domestic mainstream direct - spinning filament factories was estimated to be around 94%. On February 2, the sales volume of Jiangsu and Zhejiang filament was light, with an average sales volume estimated to be 2 - 30% by 3:30 pm. The average sales volume of direct - spinning staple fiber factories was 44% by 3:00 pm [5][6] Trend Strength - The trend strength of p - xylene is 0 - The trend strength of PTA is 0 - The trend strength of MEG is 0 [7]

Group 1 - The chemical industry is experiencing a strong rebound in prices, with the basic chemical index rising by 12.72% year-to-date as of January 30, driven by supply-side maintenance, recovering export demand, and policy-driven structural tightness [1] - Aromatic products have shown significant price increases, with pure benzene prices in East China rising by 18.3% and styrene by 15.5% in January [1] - The price surge is attributed to multiple factors, including rising international oil prices, unexpected maintenance of chemical facilities, and a favorable market outlook for low-valuation chemical products [1] Group 2 - PX social inventory is expected to decrease rapidly starting in the second half of 2025, with a projected drop to 1.67 million tons by the end of 2025, supporting PX spot price increases [2] - The price of caprolactam has also rebounded, with prices rising from 9,325 yuan/ton to 9,600 yuan/ton in January, driven by reduced industry operating rates [2] - The pesticide industry is benefiting from rising core raw material prices and new export tax regulations, leading to price increases for products like glyphosate [2] Group 3 - The pesticide industry is undergoing supply-side structural reforms driven by policy changes, including the implementation of a new registration policy and the cancellation of export tax rebates for certain products [3] - The chemical industry is approaching a cyclical turning point, with stricter standards for energy consumption, carbon emissions, and safety processes expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity [3]