所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 期货 PX 主力 PTA 主力 MEG 主力 PF 主力 SC 主力 昨日收盘价 6562 4584 4158 6292 471 涨跌 -8 -10 -49 16 -8.7 涨跌幅 -0.12% -0.22% -1.16% 0.25% -1.81% 月差 PX1-5 PTA1-5 MEG1-5 PF12-1 SC11-12 昨日收盘价 -24 -48 -77 -42 -2 前日收盘价 -40 -40 -75 -48 -1.7 涨跌 16 -8 -2 6 -0.3 现货 PX CFR 中国（美 金/吨） PTA 华东（元/吨） MEG 现货 石脑油 MOPJ Dated 布伦特 (美 金/桶) 昨日价格 808.83 4500 4214 584.25 67.66 前日价格 806.33 4545 4275 583.75 68.33 涨跌 2.5 -45 -61 0.5 -0.68 现货加工费 PX-石脑油价差 PTA 加工费 短纤加工费 瓶片加工费 MOPJ 石脑油-迪 拜原油价差 昨日价格 222.58 205.91 255.45 115.28 -4.34 前日价格 21 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 09 日 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 PTA：中期仍偏弱 MEG：1-5 月差反套 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6570 | 4594 | 4207 | 6276 | 479.7 | | 涨跌 | -100 | -58 | -17 | -60 | -12.9 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.50% | -1.25% | -0.40% | -0.95% | -2.62% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -40 | -40 | -75 | -48 | -1.7 | | 前日收盘价 | -32 | -46 | -63 | -46 | -1.6 | | 涨跌 | -8 | 6 | -12 | -2 | -0.1 ...

来源：CCF，同花顺 iFinD，S&P Global，国泰君安期货研究 【市场动态】 所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6570 | 4594 | 4207 | 6276 | 479.7 | | 涨跌 | -100 | -58 | -17 | -60 | -12.9 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.50% | -1.25% | -0.40% | -0.95% | -2.62% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -40 | -40 | -75 | -48 | -1.7 | | 前日收盘价 | -32 | -46 | -63 | -46 | -1.6 | | 涨跌 | -8 | 6 | -12 | -2 | -0.1 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The proposition of demand overdraft due to pre - export has gradually materialized, and the off - peak season for polyester in the peak season is basically a foregone conclusion. The polyester segment currently faces little short - term pressure, with a marginal improvement in terminal demand. There is an expected seasonal uptick in October, but the sustainability and height of the demand are pessimistic. Starting from November, the production is expected to decline seasonally. With weak demand, polyester raw materials are entering an inventory accumulation phase, lacking upward drivers in the supply - demand balance [1]. - For MEG, the main theme in the fourth quarter is the contradiction between strong current reality and weak future expectations. Near - term supply - demand shows marginal improvement, with port inventories at historical lows and a short - term tight liquidity situation. However, the actual tightness is less severe than indicated by low visible inventories, and the impact on absolute prices is limited. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation has a greater impact on valuation. With the new device coming into operation, the supply load pressure increases, leading to inventory accumulation starting from November. Excess supply is difficult to digest, and MEG will remain in a short - position until its valuation is further compressed [1][17]. - For PX - PTA, prices have rebounded recently due to the resurgence of the "chemical anti - involution" sentiment and marginal improvement in demand. However, the peak season for polyester is not expected to be strong, mainly showing seasonal and phased strength. The polyester load's peak depends on the performance of bottle - chip production. In the fourth quarter, many PTA maintenance plans have been announced. If they are implemented, the structural contradiction of PX - TA will be alleviated before December, and PTA processing fees may be repaired. But the overall excess situation of PTA restricts the repair of processing fees [2][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 MEG Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, MEG prices dropped significantly due to cost collapse and a weakening supply - demand pattern. In January, prices fluctuated at a high level due to low inventories. In February, prices rebounded slightly and then fell. In March, prices were in a low - level consolidation [3]. - In the second quarter, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. In early April, prices plummeted due to trade disputes, then rebounded and fluctuated. In May, prices rose due to the expectation of pre - export, then weakened. In June, prices rose due to the Israel - Palestine conflict and then fell after the cease - fire [4]. - In the third quarter, the "anti - involution" sentiment influenced prices. In July, prices reached a high and then fell. In August, prices rose and then fell again. In September, prices were under pressure due to the expectation of inventory accumulation [5]. 3.1.2 PTA Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, PTA prices mainly followed the cost trend, fluctuating in the range of 4700 - 5350. In January, prices reached a high and then fell. In February, prices fluctuated downward. In March, prices were in a low - level consolidation [9]. - In the second quarter, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. In early April, prices dropped to a low due to trade disputes, then rebounded. In May, prices rose due to the expectation of pre - export, then weakened. In June, prices rose due to the Israel - Palestine conflict and then fell after the cease - fire [10]. - In the third quarter, PTA prices fluctuated widely in the range of 4500 - 5000. In July, prices were affected by cost and macro factors. In August, prices first fell and then rose. In September, prices were under pressure and then recovered slightly [10][11]. 3.2 Core Focus Points 3.2.1 MEG - The significance of MEG's historical low visible inventories is diminishing. Port inventories are expected to remain below 600,000 tons before the end of October, with tight short - term liquidity. Domestic production has reached a high level, and supply elasticity is limited. With the resurgence of the "anti - involution" sentiment and coal production inspections, there is limited downward momentum [18]. - The expectation of inventory accumulation continues to suppress MEG's valuation. The early commissioning of Yulong and the planned commissioning of Ningxia Changyi will lead to inventory accumulation, with an expected monthly inventory increase of over 150,000 tons starting from November. If the inventory accumulation expectation is realized, the current production profit may not be maintained, and the EG01 contract may end below 4100 [19]. 3.2.2 PTA - The near - term trading logic of PTA is that the peak season for polyester is not strong. The start - up of filament and staple fiber has reached a high level, and the polyester load depends on bottle - chip production. With the improvement of weaving orders and the reduction of polyester yarn inventory, demand will remain high in October and weaken seasonally in November. The "anti - involution" sentiment has stabilized the commodity mood, and there is limited downward momentum [29]. - The long - term trading expectation of PTA is that PX is in excess relative to polyester in the fourth quarter, and its valuation is expected to fluctuate with cost and macro sentiment. Many PTA maintenance plans have been announced. If implemented, the structural contradiction of PX - TA can be alleviated, and PTA processing fees may be repaired, but the long - term excess situation restricts the repair height. The 01 contract's processing fees are expected to fluctuate between 250 - 400 in the fourth quarter. The "anti - involution" sentiment will repeatedly affect the market, and attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee and the 15th Five - Year Plan [31]. 3.3 MEG Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.3.1 MEG Industry Pattern Analysis - MEG's domestic production capacity has grown rapidly in recent years, changing from supply shortage to over - capacity. Since 2024, the large - scale commissioning period has ended, and the industry is gradually moving towards valuation repair. Currently, ethylene - based production accounts for 62% of the total capacity, and coal - based production accounts for 38%. In 2025, the supply logic has changed, with increased production and reduced supply elasticity [37][38]. 3.3.2 MEG Supply Analysis - Domestic supply: From January to August 2025, the actual domestic production of MEG was 13.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. The average load from January to August was 69.2%, an increase of 4.8% compared to the same period in 2024. Coal - based production has achieved profitability, but with the expectation of inventory accumulation, the valuation is under pressure, and there is still room for price compression [41]. - Import supply: In 2025, the monthly import volume of MEG has increased significantly year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 5.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%. The import source is becoming more concentrated, mainly from the Middle East and North America. If India's anti - dumping tax policy is implemented, it may change the global logistics pattern [51][53]. 3.3.3 MEG Balance Sheet Analysis - In the fourth quarter, MEG is entering an inventory accumulation phase. Production is expected to remain high, while demand is not expected to be strong. There will be a small inventory accumulation in October and a significant surplus starting from November, which will suppress the valuation. The 01 contract may end below 4100 [60]. 3.4 PTA Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 PX - PTA Industry Pattern Analysis - Domestic PX production capacity has expanded rapidly in recent years, and the commissioning has paused since 2024. PTA production capacity has continued to grow at a high speed. In 2025, new PTA capacity is expected to be put into operation, but there is a possibility of delay. The industrial pattern has changed, with PX supply being relatively tight and PTA supply being in excess [64][68]. 3.4.2 PTA Supply Analysis and Valuation Feedback - In 2025, PTA processing fees have been under pressure. In the first quarter, the average processing fee was 218 yuan/ton, lower than the same period in 2024. In the second quarter, processing fees were repaired due to maintenance and increased demand. In the third quarter, processing fees were under pressure again due to increased supply. In the fourth quarter, if maintenance plans are implemented, the structural contradiction can be alleviated, but the repair of processing fees is limited [70][71]. 3.4.3 PTA Export Demand Analysis - From January to August 2025, PTA exports totaled 2.53 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The decline is mainly due to the new overseas PTA plant in Turkey. The export volume to Turkey has decreased significantly, and part of the export volume has shifted to other countries [74]. 3.4.4 PTA Balance Sheet Analysis - The peak season for polyester is not expected to be strong. In October, there may be a small supply - demand gap if maintenance plans are implemented. Starting from November, demand is expected to decline seasonally, and PTA prices are expected to be weak. Processing fees are expected to remain under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - policies [84]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Start - up Performance - The peak season for polyester is not strong. Although there is a marginal improvement in downstream demand, high坯布 inventories suppress terminal purchasing. Filament and staple fiber start - up rates are already high, with limited room for further increase. Bottle - chip production load has been low, and attention should be paid to potential load - increasing plans. In the fourth quarter, demand is expected to improve in October but weaken seasonally starting from November, with average loads of 91.5%, 90%, and 89% from October to December [87]. 3.5.2 Macro - demand - In terms of domestic consumption, from January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.6%. Textile and clothing consumption grew at a low speed, with clothing retail sales increasing by 2.2% and textile and clothing products increasing by 2.9% year - on - year [103]. - In terms of exports, in the first three quarters of 2025, textile and clothing exports showed low - speed growth. Affected by trade disputes and macro - policies, export growth has been under pressure. In the first quarter, exports increased significantly, but after April, exports weakened due to the uncertainty of macro - expectations [106].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The mid - term trends of p - xylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), and monoethylene glycol (MEG) are still weak. Before the holiday, attention should be paid to position management. For MEG, a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [1]. - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all neutral (0) [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Data**: The previous day's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6656, 4646, 4213, 6326, and 491.3 respectively, with changes of - 18, - 32, - 33, - 46, and 0.7, and percentage changes of - 0.27%, - 0.68%, - 0.78%, - 0.72%, and 0.14% [2]. - **Month - spread Data**: The previous day's closing prices of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 month - spreads were - 32, - 46, - 63, - 44, and - 0.8 respectively, with changes of 10, - 6, 1, 0, and 0.3 [2]. - **Spot Data**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 814 dollars/ton, 4590 yuan/ton, 4300 yuan/ton, 608 dollars/ton, and 71.92 dollars/barrel respectively, with changes of - 3, 0, 10, - 0.5, and 1.39 [2]. - **Spot Processing Fee Data**: The previous day's spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 206 dollars/ton, 217.21 yuan/ton, 222.06 yuan/ton, 59.94 yuan/ton, and - 6.01 respectively, with changes of - 2.5, 19.02, - 12.24, - 29.3, and 0 [2]. Market Dynamics In 2025, on September 5, the US White House issued a presidential order, canceling the exemption from reciprocal tariffs for the tariff codes 3907.61.00 and 3907.69.00 related to polyester bottle chips, and including polyester bottle chips in the scope of reciprocal tariff collection. Recycled PET now has the same tariff system as virgin PET [2]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. The PXN position for compression should be closed with a profit. The domestic PX operating rate is 86.7% (+0.4%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 78% (-0.2%). The PTA load is 76.8% (-). The PTA processing fee has recovered to 217 yuan/ton, and PXN has dropped to 206 dollars/ton. Overseas reforming profits are low, and South Korean plants may reduce their loads in the future. Attention should be paid to the support of overseas MX blending demand for PX valuation [4]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. Short the PTA processing fee of 01/05 contracts on rebounds. The PTA load is 76.8% (-). The polyester operating rate this week is 90.3% (-1.3%). Although there are unplanned production cuts, the supply surplus in East China is still difficult to change, and the basis is difficult to strengthen significantly. In the medium - to - long term, the inventory pressure of polyester factories is expected to rise again after the holiday [5]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland is 73.08% (down 1.85% from the previous period). Factories have announced maintenance plans for October - November. The polyester operating rate this week is 90.3% (-1.3%). The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet is still strong in the near - term, and the basis is expected to be strong [6].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 26 日 对二甲苯：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 PTA：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 MEG：1-5 月差反套 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6674 | 4678 | 4246 | 6372 | 490.6 | | 涨跌 | 72 | 52 | 12 | 76 | 8.3 | | 涨跌幅 | 1.09% | 1.12% | 0.28% | 1.21% | 1.72% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -42 | -40 | -64 | -44 | -1.1 | | 前日收盘价 | -22 | -36 | -64 | -50 | -0.5 | | 涨跌 | -20 | -4 | 0 | 6 | -0.6 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner. There are concerns about supply - demand imbalances in the market, with factors like OPEC+增产, device maintenance, and changes in production and sales affecting the prices and market trends of these products [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Crude Oil and Naphtha**: On September 23, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.41 per barrel, up 1.81%; Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.63 per barrel, up 1.59%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $597.50 per ton, up 0.31% [1] - **PX Prices**: The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $803 per ton, down 0.66%. CZCE PX contracts also showed a decline, with the main - contract closing price at 6530 yuan/ton, down 0.94% [1] - **PTA Prices**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4556 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4470 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [1] - **PR Prices**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5718 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5710 yuan/ton, down 0.35% [1] Operating Conditions - For the PX industry, the operating rate on September 23, 2025, was 85.57%, unchanged from the previous value. The PTA factory load rate was 79.38%, up 2.56 percentage points [1] - The load rates of polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 89.00%, 74.19%, and 67.55% respectively. The production - sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips all decreased [1] Device Information - A 700,000 - ton PX device in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] Market Analysis - **PX**: OPEC+ is continuing to increase production, and Iraq and the Kurdish region have reached a preliminary agreement to restart the oil pipeline. The expected increase in crude oil supply of 230,000 barrels per day has intensified concerns about supply over - capacity. The global supply - surplus expectation for PX is strengthening, and its cost support is insufficient. There is an obvious increase in PX supply due to short - process capacity expansion and postponed device maintenance, while demand has decreased due to delayed new PTA device production and multiple PTA device maintenance [2] - **PTA**: With insufficient cost support, the TA2601 contract closed at 4556 yuan/ton. The global supply - surplus expectation is strengthening, and PTA operating conditions are a mix of start - up and load reduction. The market's bearish sentiment dominates, and the production and sales of polyester products are mediocre [2] - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is trading at 5700 - 5820 yuan/ton. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures are weakly volatile. The supply side has sufficient market supply, and downstream terminals are replenishing stocks at low prices, with a fair trading atmosphere [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report MEG - The short - term downward space of ethylene glycol (MEG) is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4200 - 4400. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options with an exercise price of 4150 [1][3][5]. PX - TA - In the short term, the absolute price of the PX - TA industry chain is under pressure, but the compression space is limited. It is advisable to consider cautious long positions or expand the TA - SC spread. For the processing fee, it is recommended to expand the TA01 contract processing fee below 270 [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs MEG Fundamental Situation - Supply side: The total load remains stable at 74.93% (+0.02%), with coal - based load rising to 79.38% (+2.69%). The port inventory is expected to increase by about 10,000 tons. The coal - based marginal profit is under significant pressure [2]. - Demand side: The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%). The terminal demand is lackluster, and the speculative sentiment is weak. The bottle - chip processing fee has improved [2]. Key Data - Price: Brent crude oil dropped from 66.45 to 66.05 dollars/barrel, and MEG in East China decreased from 4378 to 4352 yuan/ton [8]. - Spread and profit: The PX - N spread decreased from 232.8 to 227.3 dollars/ton, and the MEG coal - based profit dropped from 39 to - 64 yuan/ton [8][10]. - Inventory: The MEG port inventory increased from 45.9 to 46.5 tons [9]. Supply and Demand Balance - From 2024 to 2026, the supply and demand of MEG show certain fluctuations, with production, import, and demand changing over time [12]. Maintenance Situation - Many domestic and foreign MEG devices are in maintenance, such as Xinjiang Tianye Phase III, which was restarted and then shut down again, and two sets of Shell's devices in the United States are under maintenance [1][15]. PX - TA Fundamental Situation - Supply side: The PX load is adjusted down to 86.3% (-1.5%), and the PTA load remains stable at 76.8%. The PX is expected to accumulate inventory by about 100,000 tons in September [6]. - Demand side: The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%), and the terminal demand is weak [7]. Key Data - Price: Brent crude oil dropped from 66.45 to 66.05 dollars/barrel, and PTA in East China decreased from 4565 to 4555 yuan/ton [10]. - Spread and profit: The PX - N spread decreased from 232.8 to 227.3 dollars/ton, and the PTA domestic processing fee increased from 115 to 151 yuan/ton [10]. - Inventory: The PTA social inventory increased from 208 to 210 tons [10]. Supply and Demand Balance - From 2024 to 2026, the supply and demand of PX - TA change over time, with production, import, and demand showing different trends [13]. Maintenance Situation - Many PX and PTA devices are under maintenance, such as Fuhai Dahua's 700,000 - ton PX line and Zhongtai Petrochemical's PTA device [6][17][18]. Polyester Fundamental Situation - The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%), and the terminal demand is weak. The inventory of filament and staple fiber has slightly increased [2][7]. Key Data - Price: POY decreased from 6650 to 6625 yuan/ton, and FDY dropped from 7025 to 6875 yuan/ton [11]. - Spread and profit: The POY processing fee increased from 185 to 207 yuan/ton, and the FDY processing fee decreased from 110 to 7 yuan/ton [11]. - Inventory: The POY inventory days increased from 19.3 to 21.7 days, and the FDY inventory days increased from 21.4 to 22.7 days [11]. Production and Sales - The production - sales ratio of polyester fiber filament and staple fiber shows certain fluctuations [112]. Export and Import - The export and import volumes of polyester products show different trends over time [116][119]. Profit - The processing profit of polyester products such as filament and staple fiber shows certain seasonal changes [121]. Downstream of Polyester Weaving - The weaving start - up rate remains stable, and the inventory of grey cloth is high. The order volume is insufficient [2][7]. Spinning Mill - The start - up rate of the spinning mill shows certain fluctuations, and the inventory of yarn is at a certain level [137][139]. Terminal Macro - The production and sales data of downstream products such as cloth, yarn, and soft drinks show certain seasonal changes [149][150][151]. Spinning and Clothing Export - The export volume and value index of textile and clothing show certain fluctuations [153][155][157]. Global Spinning and Clothing - The import, inventory, and export data of textile and clothing in countries such as the United States, Vietnam, and India show different trends [162][163][165].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - PX is expected to remain weak in the medium term due to low profits and increased maintenance in downstream PTA, leading to a marginal easing of PX supply [1][11] - PTA's short - term processing fee for 01/05 contracts may rebound, but the unilateral trend remains weak. With limited room for polyester load increase and expected weakening demand in Q4, the medium - term trend may be weak after the end - September restocking [1][11] - MEG's valuation has recovered in the short term, but the medium - term unilateral trend may still be weak. A 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage is recommended. Supply pressure will gradually emerge, and demand is expected to weaken in Q4 [1][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Yesterday's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6684, 4666, 4268, 6344, and 491.8 respectively, with fluctuations of - 1.30%, - 0.98%, - 0.67%, - 0.91%, and - 1.50% [2] - The price differences between different contract months of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC all showed declines compared to the previous day [2] Spot Market - Yesterday's PX CFR China price was 826.67 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars from the previous day; PTA's East China price was 4626 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; MEG's spot price was 4362 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2] - PX - naphtha spread was 232.83 dollars/ton, down 1.5 dollars; PTA processing fee was 107.46 yuan/ton, down 16.52 yuan; short - fiber processing fee was 239.06 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan; bottle - chip processing fee was 82.22 yuan/ton, up 27.77 yuan; MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread remained unchanged at - 6.01 dollars [2] Fundamental Data PX - Today's PX price dropped to 827 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars from yesterday. A 70 - ton PX unit in the Northeast is under maintenance for about 45 days, and two 70 - ton PX units in the East are expected to postpone maintenance to next year [4] PTA - As of Thursday, PTA load was 76.8%, and the operating rate was around 82.7%. Today's PTA spot price rose to 4630 yuan/ton [4] MEG - Today's MEG spot average price was 4362 yuan/ton. A 30 - ton/year synthetic - gas - based MEG unit in Inner Mongolia plans to shut down for 20 - 30 days starting October 10. A 60 - ton/year synthetic - gas - based MEG unit in Xinjiang is restarting. As of September 18, the overall operating load of MEG in the Chinese mainland was 74.93% (up 0.02% from the previous period), and the operating load of synthetic - gas - based MEG was 79.38% (up 2.69% from the previous period) [5] Polyester - The operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn plants remained stable at around 75%. As of Thursday, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland was around 91.4%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales rate of 60% [6] Terminal Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang - The comprehensive operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained at 78%, 66%, and 72% respectively [7] - Downstream raw material inventory decreased. Some factories made rigid - demand purchases, some stocked up until late September or early October, and a few until late October [8] - New orders and shipments in the weaving sector were weak, and high inventory pressured fabric prices. Conventional fabric varieties still had nominal cash - flow losses [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX, PTA, and MEG are expected to have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium term. For MEG, a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [2][11][12]. - Policy support for consumption is emphasized, and the implementation needs to be monitored. Terminal will have a final round of restocking at the end of September, after which the medium - term unilateral trend may remain weak [11][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: Due to stronger upstream prices, Asian paraxylene increased by $1.50/ton to $835.67/ton CFR Unv1/China and $814.67/ton FOB Korea, while downstream fundamentals are still weak. PX - naphtha spread closed at $226.80/ton on September 17, lower than the previous day. Some refineries in Northeast Asia may reduce aromatic hydrocarbon production. New Fengming Group will postpone the commissioning of its 3 million - ton/year No. 4 PTA production line until PTA margins improve [6][7]. - **PTA**: The current domestic PTA profit margin in China is negative, hovering around 120 - 130 yuan/ton, far below the break - even level. Hengli Petrochemical plans to shut down a 2.2 million - ton/year PTA unit in Dalian on October 11. Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton PTA unit plans to be overhauled in November, and the start - up plan of a new 3 million - ton PTA unit in East China is temporarily cancelled [6][7][8]. - **MEG**: On September 17, the daily average price of MEG spot was 4373 yuan/ton, and the daily average price of futures for late October was 4365 yuan/ton. The average price of spot in Ningbo market was 4398 yuan/ton, and the average price of non - coal - based spot in South China market was 4410 yuan/ton [9]. - **Polyester**: On September 17, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of about 4 - 5%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 54% [9][10]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [11]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In the short term, it will rebound following oil prices. Hold the 11 - 01 long - short spread and the 1 - 5 reverse spread. Take profit on PXN compression positions below $220. Track the impact of Zhejiang Petrochemical's device maintenance and Sheng Hong's reformer shutdown on the PX segment. Pay attention to the possible restart of the 4.5 million - ton PTA device of Fuhai Chuang, the October maintenance of Hengli Dalian, and the November maintenance of New Fengming [11]. - **PTA**: In the short term, it will rebound following oil prices. Hold the 11 - 01 long - short spread and the 1 - 5 reverse spread. Short the 01/05 contract PTA processing fee on rallies. Future attention should be paid to the possible restart of the 4.5 million - ton PTA device of Fuhai Chuang, the October maintenance of Hengli Dalian, and the November maintenance of New Fengming. The polyester load peak has passed, and demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [11][12]. - **MEG**: The market is concerned about the impact of anti - involution policies, and coal prices have rebounded, leading to a short - term recovery in ethylene glycol valuation. Implement a 1 - 5 reverse spread. The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and the 01 contract will face a loose supply situation. The polyester start - up rate reached 91.6% (+0.3%), but the start - up peak has passed, and demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [12].