2025 年 08 月 26 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，趋势偏强，正套 PTA：三房巷新装置投产，正套 MEG：趋势偏强 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 一位经纪人表示："过去一周 PX 价格一直波动，因此 25 日的走势相对稳定。 与此同时，PX 的涨幅受到中国 PX 和 PTA 期货疲软的限制，市场参与者称三房巷最近启动了新的 PTA 产能。8 月 25 日，中国三房巷公司消息人士证实，该公司于 8 月 23 日至 24 日将其新的 150 万吨/年 PTA 线 2 号线上线。消息人士补充说，由于两条生产线现已投入运营，生产商的运行量约为总产能的 95%。该位于 江苏的工厂由两条 PTA 生产线组成，每条生产线的铭牌产能为 150 万吨/年。 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6970 | 4862 | 4509 | 6596 | 492.9 | | 涨跌 | ...

2025年08月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：三房巷新装置投产，正套 | 2 | | MEG：趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期偏强，中期仍在区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青：裂解续弱 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 11 | | PP：短线反弹，中期震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期回调，关注近月仓单压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡有支撑 | 18 | | 尿素：弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期偏强，中期偏空 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：进口成本存支撑，但供需缺乏明显改善 | 24 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，价格偏强整理 | 24 | | PVC：趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：夜盘高位震荡，短期强势延续 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：近月合约持续上涨，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 28 | | 集运指数 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Trend is strong, recommend long on dips and focus on the 11-1 calendar spread [6] - PTA: Unilateral trend is strong, focus on the 9-1/10-1 calendar spread [7] - MEG: Trend is strong, exit the 9-1 reverse calendar spread [7] 2) Core Views - PX follows the rise of PTA due to unexpected PTA plant shutdowns and the recovery of polyester demand in the peak season, forming a positive feedback loop and showing a short - term strong trend [6] - PTA's 8 - 9 month balance sheet shows significant inventory drawdown due to an unexpected plant shutdown, and with the increase in polyester plant operation rate, it will enter a tight - balance pattern, so 9-1/10-1 calendar spreads are favorable [7] - MEG has a tight spot supply with high basis, and low recent arrivals benefit the near - month contracts, but there are clear upside pressures from future new capacity, so no short - term chasing of long positions [7] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On the 21st, the price of PX increased significantly, with two 10 - month Asian spot transactions at 854 and 855, and two 11 - month Asian spot transactions at 849 and 851. The estimated price of PX on the 21st was 854 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars from the 20th [3] - **PTA**: A 250 - million - ton PTA plant in South China shut down for maintenance on the 21st, and another 250 - million - ton plant is expected to shut down around August 23rd for over a month. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 71.6%, and the operating rate was around 77.4% [3] - **MEG**: As of August 21st, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.16% (up 6.77% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 81.25% (up 0.78% from the previous period) [5] - **Polyester**: There were no changes in the whole polyester plants this week, but the local plant loads increased, and the overall polyester load in mainland China was around 90% as of Thursday. The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable, and the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn recovered to around 71% [5] Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6958 | 4860 | 4473 | 6614 | 490.9 | | Change | 6844 | 82 | - 4 | 110 | 8.1 | | Change Rate | 1.67% | 1.72% | - 0.09% | 1.69% | 1.68% | | Month Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | 162 | - 14 | - 54 | - 42 | - 6.2 | | Month Spread (Change) | 74 | 42 | - 4 | 20 | 0.7 | | Spot Price (Yesterday) | 852.33 dollars/ton | 4830 yuan/ton | 4518 yuan/ton | 584.5 dollars/ton | 68.12 dollars/barrel | | Spot Price (Change) | 14.33 | 144 | 16 | 9 | 0.57 | | Spot Processing Fee (Yesterday) | 255.5 | 197.31 | 175.93 | 27.32 | - 6.01 | | Spot Processing Fee (Change) | 2.5 | - 10.67 | 43.46 | 4.44 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - PTA trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - MEG trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] Sales Data - On the 21st, the overall sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were fair, with an average sales rate of around 70% by 3:30 pm [5] - On the 21st, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber improved, with an average sales rate of 89% by 3:00 pm [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of p-xylene, PTA, and MEG is rated as "1", indicating a "slightly strong" outlook [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: With a significant reduction in overnight crude oil inventories and a strong rebound in oil prices, the short - term downside space for PX's unilateral price may be limited. Supported by cost and with improved demand expectations, and a tight supply - demand pattern, the unilateral price of PX is expected to rebound. For the spread, focus on the 11 - 01 positive spread. The PX - naphtha valuation is at a moderately high level, with a tight supply - demand pattern in September and downward pressure on PXN after the 01 contract [6]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, and the 9 - 1 reverse spread should be held. With an improvement in terminal textile and clothing demand and a bottom - up rebound in polyester operating rates, the unilateral price of PTA is strong. The price and basis strengthened yesterday, and the downstream's willingness to hold goods increased [7]. - MEG: With a decrease in imports and arrivals and marginal destocking, the unilateral price of MEG is strong. The reduction of naphtha cracking capacity by the South Korean petrochemical group has disrupted the market sentiment of olefin - related products. Domestically, plants are operating at full capacity, imports are low, inventories are decreasing, and polyester operating rates are rising. In the short - term, a bullish view is maintained. In the long - term, the supply pressure of new plants in the 01 contract will limit the upside [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: The naphtha price rose at the end of the session. On the 20th, PX prices increased, with two October Asian spot transactions at $839 and $838, and one November Asian spot at $836. The PX valuation on the 20th was $837/ton, up $2 from the 19th. There were concerns about weak PX spot prices due to over - capacity in China, but hopes are placed on winter demand for polyester clothing [2][3]. - PTA: On the 20th, the PTA spot price remained at 4,690 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 09 - 2 [5]. - MEG: South Korean petrochemical companies will cut capacity and restructure. A 750,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Malaysia has restarted, and there were tender transactions on the 20th [5]. - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 20th declined overall, with individual differences. The average sales volume was estimated to be slightly below 70%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were generally average, with an average sales volume of 57% as of 3:00 pm [5][6]. Futures and Spot Data | Product | Futures Yesterday's Closing Price | Futures Change | Futures Change Rate | Spot Yesterday's Price | Spot Change | Spot Processing Fee Yesterday | Spot Processing Fee Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX | 6,844 | 6774 | 1.03% | $838/ton | $2.83 | 255.5 | 2.5 | | PTA | 4,778 | 44 | 0.93% | 4,686 yuan/ton | - 4 | 197.31 | - 10.67 | | MEG | 4,477 | 53 | 1.20% | 4,502 yuan/ton | 47 | - | - | | PF | 6,504 | 72 | 1.12% | - | - | - | - | | SC | 482.8 | - 1.4 | - 0.29% | - | - | - | - |

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX cost support is weak, but terminal demand improves, and the month - spread remains strong. PX is expected to be stronger than oil prices, but the overall upside space may be limited, and the 9 - 1 month - spread will continue to strengthen [1][7]. - PTA is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with a 9 - 1 month - spread reverse arbitrage. The unilateral price is in a volatile market with limited downside space for now [1][8]. - MEG has a low arrival volume this week, and the basis strengthens. The unilateral price is mainly in a volatile market, and the 9 - 1 month - spread should be operated in the range of - 50 to 0, with a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [1][8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: The price of naphtha at the end of the session remained strong, and the PX price increased. However, the low start - up of downstream PTA and the weak crude oil market restricted the rise of the PX market. Some October cargoes were traded at 836.5 - 837 dollars/ton [4]. - PTA: The spot price rose to 4,690 yuan/ton. The sentiment in the Asian PTA market remained sluggish due to concerns about over - capacity. A 760,000 - ton/year PTA plant in Taichung was shut down for planned maintenance [5]. - MEG: From August 18th to August 24th, the total planned arrival volume at major ports was about 54,000 tons [6]. - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were still weak, with an average sales rate of slightly less than 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales rate of 57% by 3:00 pm [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [7]. Views and Suggestions - PX: Cost support is weak, but the PX fundamentals are tight. The 8 - month polyester start - up reached the bottom, and the 9 - month supply - demand is still tight. Pay attention to the restart progress of Fuhua Group [7]. - PTA: The unilateral price is in a volatile market. The supply is marginally tightened, and the demand improves month - on - month. The 9 - 1 month - spread reverse arbitrage should be maintained. Pay attention to the impact of the peak season on the industrial chain [8]. - MEG: The import arrival volume decreases, and the supply and demand both increase. The 9 - 1 month - spread should be operated in the range of - 50 to 0, with a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to the position reduction speed of the 09 contract [8].

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral trend is weakly bearish [7] - PTA: Unilateral trend is weakly bearish [7] - MEG: Unilateral trend is weakly bearish and in a weak oscillation [7] Core Views - PX: From late August, pay attention to the recovery of terminal orders, and PXN has short - term support [7] - PTA: Hold the mid - term strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA. With low processing fees, focus on unplanned production cuts and the positive spread of September - January contracts. Supply decreases while demand increases as polyester operating rate rises to 89.4% [7] - MEG: Hold the mid - term strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA. Keep the September - January spread in the range of - 50 to 0; pay attention to the reverse spread of January - May contracts. The sharp decline in coal prices yesterday had a negative impact on the chemical sector [7] Market Dynamics - **PX**: On August 14, the price of PX decreased. One October Asian spot was traded at $824. The end - of - session physical goods had no negotiation for September, and October was negotiated at $820/825, with an asking price of $825 for November. The PX price was affected by the weak sentiment in the broader commodity market despite the rise of crude oil and naphtha [3] - **PTA**: Some PTA producers are turning from loss to profit, and the tight supply of PX has slightly eased. This week, the 1.5 - million - ton Taihua and 2.25 - million - ton Yisheng plants stopped, while the 2.5 - million - ton Weilian Chemical and 2.2 - million - ton Jiaxing Petrochemical plants restarted. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 76.4%, and the operating rate was around 82.3% [4] - **MEG**: Two MEG plants in East China with a total annual capacity of 1.9 million tons stopped for 1 - 2 days due to an accident. As of August 14, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 66.39% (down 2.01% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 80.47% (up 5.34% from the previous period) [4][5] - **Polyester**: A 300,000 - ton polyester plant in Huzhou has restarted, mainly producing polyester filament. As of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn has recovered to about 71%. The overall polyester load has increased, and as of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 89.4%. The sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 14th were weak overall, with an average sales rate of 30% - 40%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber on the 14th were average, with an average sales rate of 49% [5][6] Price and Spread Data | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Month Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6614 | - 26 | - 2.51% | PX9 - 1 | 72 | 80 | - 8 | | PTA Main | 4666 | - 39 | - 0.55% | PTA9 - 1 | - 26 | - 34 | 8 | | MEG Main | 4367 | - 76 | - 0.89% | MEG9 - 1 | - 47 | - 50 | 3 | | PF Main | 6338 | - 4 | - 1.18% | PF9 - 1 | - 74 | - 82 | 8 | | SC Main | 485.5 | - 4 | - 0.82% | SC9 - 10 | - 3.6 | - 1.1 | - 2.5 | | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 824 | 831 | - 7 | | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | 4646 | 4692 | - 46 | | MEG Spot | 4465 | 4488 | - 23 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 571 | 563.5 | 7.5 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 68.28 | 66.91 | 1.38 | | Spot Processing Fee | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 261.17 | 268.67 | - 7.5 | | PTA Processing Fee | 187.85 | 162.08 | 25.77 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 161.38 | 137.24 | 24.14 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | 42.77 | 19.7 | 23.07 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 6.01 | - 6.01 | 0 | [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX has a weak unilateral trend, with the main contract shifting positions and a reverse spread in the monthly spread. The short - term PXN has support, and it is necessary to pay attention to the repair of terminal orders starting from late August [8]. - PTA has a weak unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA. Under low processing fees, pay attention to unplanned production cuts and conduct a positive spread in the 9 - 1 monthly spread. PTA has reduced supply and increased demand, but the high inventory of grey fabrics makes it difficult to form an effective positive feedback [8]. - MEG has a weakly oscillating unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA. Maintain the 9 - 1 positive spread operation in the range of - 50 to 0 and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On the 13th, the PX price fell. An Asian spot in September was traded at $831. The PX price lost support due to the decline in crude oil futures. The supply recovery and weak downstream demand depressed the market sentiment, but some participants thought the market was relatively tight [5]. - **PTA**: The spot price dropped to 4,695 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 09 - 13 [6]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - based ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi reduced its load to replace the catalyst, and a 800,000 - ton/year plant in Zhejiang restarted [6]. - **Polyester**: On the 13th, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 48%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of just over 40% [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a weak trend [8]. Viewpoints and Suggestions - **PX**: Weak unilateral trend, main contract position shift, monthly spread reverse spread. PXN has short - term support, and pay attention to terminal orders from late August [8]. - **PTA**: Weak unilateral trend, hold the mid - term strategy of long MEG and short PTA. Pay attention to unplanned production cuts and 9 - 1 monthly spread positive spread. PTA has reduced supply and increased demand, but the high grey fabric inventory affects the positive feedback [8]. - **MEG**: Weakly oscillating unilateral trend, hold the mid - term strategy of long MEG and short PTA. Maintain the 9 - 1 positive spread operation in the - 50 to 0 range and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread. This week, the supply and demand of ethylene glycol both increased, but the terminal demand is weak [9].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - PX has a weak unilateral trend, with the main contract shifting positions. The 1 - 5 month - spread is in a reverse arbitrage. Although weekend sales volume boosts the overall price of the industrial chain, it doesn't change the medium - term weak trend. PXN has short - term support starting from late August [7]. - PTA has a weak unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. Under low processing fees, pay attention to the support of unplanned production cuts on PTA processing fees, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. PTA supply decreases while demand increases, but high坯布 inventory and weak crude oil prices affect its performance [8]. - MEG has a weak and oscillating unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. Keep the 9 - 1 spread in the range of - 50 to 0 and pay attention to 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. This week, both supply and demand of ethylene glycol increase, but the near - end driving force for the industrial chain is weak [9]. Market Dynamics PX - On the 12th, the price of PX decreased, with an Asian spot for October trading at 834. There was no negotiation for September at the end of the session, and the negotiation ranges for October and November were 833/840 and 821/837 respectively. The 9/10 swap changed from +5 to -1 on the 12th. The news of a 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce buffered the loss in the PX market, and crude oil futures rose during the session. The PX - naphtha price spread narrowed to 263.67 dollars/ton [5]. PTA - A 700,000 - ton PTA plant in Taiwan, China, stopped on the weekend, and the restart time is to be tracked. A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently restarting after a maintenance starting around August 1st [6]. MEG - From August 11th to 17th, the expected arrival quantities at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, Ningbo, and Shanghai ports are 46,000 tons, 95,000 tons, 0 tons, and 0 tons respectively, with a total expected arrival at major ports of about 141,000 tons [6]. Polyester - On the 12th, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 52%. The sales of polyester yarns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an estimated average sales - to - production ratio of 30% - 40% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak trend [7]. - PTA trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak trend [7]. - MEG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [7]. Futures and Spot Data Futures - PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had price increases of 0.80%, 0.42%, 0.41%, 0.37%, and 1.19% respectively. The 9 - 1 month - spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC changed by 18, -8, -3, -14, and -1.3 respectively [4]. Spot - The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent changed by -1, 10, 18, 2, and -0.49 respectively. The PX - naphtha price spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread changed by -7.5, 25.77, 24.14, 23.07, and 0 respectively [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Oil prices are fluctuating around the US - Russia meeting, with a slight rebound due to oversold recovery, but pressured by high South American oil production. PX supply has recovered with new plant launches and restarts, and it has strong bottom support due to low inventory. Its future profitability depends on unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industry chain, and social inventory is decreasing due to PTA demand, but PTA downstream开工 has a strong downward expectation [2]. - PTA supply has a mix of restarts and maintenance. Spot prices rose slightly with the market, but with low processing fees, new plant launch expectations on the supply - side and weak demand in the off - season, it's hard to have a trend - upward market. It will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - Polyester bottle - chip prices are stable. Supply - side starts are at a low level, with local shortages of spot goods. Downstream procurement is cautious [2]. - Without unexpected positive news, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 11, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.96/barrel (up 0.13%), Brent at $66.63/barrel (up 0.06%), naphtha at $568/ton (down 0.44%), isomeric xylene at $690.5/ton (up 0.15%), and PX CFR China Main Port at $833.67/ton (up 0.24%) [1]. - **PTA**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE TA main contract closed at 4,726 yuan/ton (up 0.42%), settled at 4,718 yuan/ton (up 0.21%); spot PTA in China was 4,698 yuan/ton (up 0.58%); CCFEI PTA domestic index was 4,705 yuan/ton (up 0.21%), and the foreign index was $625/ton (up 0.48%) on August 11 [1]. - **PX**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE PX main contract closed at 6,832 yuan/ton (up 0.80%), settled at 6,808 yuan/ton (up 0.56%); domestic PX spot was 6,708 yuan/ton (up 0.04%) on August 11 [1]. - **PR**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE PR main contract closed at 5,964 yuan/ton (up 0.51%), settled at 5,954 yuan/ton (up 0.27%); polyester bottle - chip in East China and South China markets remained stable at 5,910 yuan/ton and 5,950 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream**: On August 12, 2025, CCFEI polyester fiber DTY index was 8,625 yuan/ton (up 0.29%), POY remained stable at 7,125 yuan/ton, FDY68D was 7,100 yuan/ton (up 0.71%), FDY150D was 7,100 yuan/ton (up 0.71%), short - fiber was 6,495 yuan/ton (up 0.23%), polyester chip was 5,880 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), and bottle - grade chip remained stable at 5,910 yuan/ton [2]. Spread Information - On August 11, 2025, PXN spread was $265.67/ton (up 1.72%), PX - MX spread was $143.17/ton (up 0.70%) [1]. - On August 12, 2025, PTA near - far month spread remained at - 18 yuan/ton, PTA basis was - 21 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), PX basis was - 124 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan), PR basis in East China was - 54 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and in South China was - 14 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) [1] Operation Rate and Sales Rate - On August 12, 2025, PX operation rate was 78.11%, PTA factory load rate was 76.56%, polyester factory load rate was 86.88% (down 0.21%), bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms load rate was 57.83% [1]. - On August 12, 2025, polyester filament sales rate was 42% (down 1%), polyester short - fiber sales rate was 58% (up 7%), and polyester chip sales rate was 115% (up 18%) [1] Device Information - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was under maintenance from June 28 and restarted on August 10 [2]. Trading Strategy - After price corrections, the TA2509 contract closed at 4,726 yuan/ton (up 0.38%) with a trading volume of 367,400 lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 6,832 yuan/ton (up 0.92%) with a trading volume of 68,800 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 5,964 yuan/ton (up 0.44%) with a trading volume of 17,000 lots. Without unexpected positive news, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX supply has recovered, with its inventory at a historical low and strong bottom support. Whether its profitability can continue to improve depends on unexpected factors. Currently, it is in an advantageous position in the industry chain, and social inventory is decreasing. However, due to the off - season of polyester consumption and a significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. Although there are device maintenance expectations, new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand during the off - season limit price increases. The market had a short - term upward trend but has since fallen back, and supply remains sufficient [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a weak trading atmosphere. Supply - side quotes vary, and downstream buying enthusiasm has declined. The supply - side operating rate remains low, some specifications are in short supply, and downstream terminals are mainly consuming previous inventories [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner. Without more unexpected positive news, the TA2509, PX2509, and PR2509 contracts closed at 4706 yuan/ton (0.38%), 6778 yuan/ton (0.44%), and 5934 yuan/ton (0.41%) respectively, with trading volumes of 44.47 million hands, 7.41 million hands, and 1.97 million hands [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Crude Oil**: On August 11, 2025, the futures settlement prices (continuous) of WTI and Brent crude oil were $63.96/barrel and $66.63/barrel respectively, up 0.13% and 0.06% from the previous values [1]. - **Upstream Products**: The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $568/ton, down 0.44%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $690/ton, up 0.07%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $835/ton, up 0.40% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE TA main contract were 4706 yuan/ton and 4708 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.47% and 0.43%; the closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were 4706 yuan/ton and 4690 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.38% and 0.30%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4671 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The CCFEI price index of domestic and foreign PTA was 4695 yuan/ton (up 0.54%) and $622/ton (down 0.96%) respectively [1]. - **PX**: The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PX main contract were 6778 yuan/ton and 6770 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.77% and 0.33%; the closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were 6770 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 6705 yuan/ton [1]. - **PR**: The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PR main contract were 5934 yuan/ton and 5938 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.61% and 0.47%; the closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were 5922 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The mainstream market prices of polyester bottle - chips in East China and South China were 5910 yuan/ton (unchanged) and 5950 yuan/ton (up 0.17%) respectively [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price indices of polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and bottle - grade chips remained unchanged at 6480 yuan/ton, 5870 yuan/ton, and 5910 yuan/ton respectively. The CCFEI price indices of polyester DTY, POY, FDY68D, and FDY150D were 8600 yuan/ton (up 0.58%), 7125 yuan/ton (up 0.35%), 7050 yuan/ton (up 1.44%), and 7050 yuan/ton (up 1.44%) respectively [2]. 2. Spread Changes - **PXN Spread**: On August 11, 2025, it was $267/ton, up 2.23% [1]. - **PX - MX Spread**: It was $145/ton, up 1.99% [1]. - **Near - far Month Spread of PTA**: It was - 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis of PTA**: It was - 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis of PX**: It was - 73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis of Polyester Bottle - chips in East and South China**: They were - 24 yuan/ton and 16 yuan/ton respectively, decreasing by 36 yuan/ton and 26 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: It remained unchanged at 78.11% [1]. - **PTA Factory Load Rate**: It increased by 2.06 percentage points to 76.56% [1]. - **Polyester Factory Load Rate**: It remained unchanged at 87.09% [1]. - **Bottle - chip Factory Load Rate**: It remained unchanged at 71.93% [1]. - **Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Load Rate**: It remained unchanged at 57.83% [1]. 4. Production and Sales Rates - **Polyester Filament Production and Sales Rate**: It increased by 2 percentage points to 43% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Production and Sales Rate**: It decreased by 6 percentage points to 51% [1]. - **Polyester Chip Production and Sales Rate**: It increased by 8 percentage points to 97% [1]. 5. Device Information - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was shut down for maintenance on June 28 and restarted on August 10 [2]. 6. Important News - The supply - demand situation of international crude oil is weak, with high crude oil production in Brazil and Iran. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 will affect oil prices. With the expected progress, geopolitical risks have declined, putting pressure on oil prices. Multiple reforming devices have been put into operation recently, and some PX devices have restarted one after another, leading to a recovery in PX supply [2].