交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，个别主流供应商有出货，11月在01贴水60~70附近商谈成交，个别略高，价格商谈区间在4565~4660附近。12 月中上在01-55有成交，12月底在01-43有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-63。中性 2、基差：现货4575，01合约基差-63，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.81天，环比减少0.16天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：随着PTA供应减量较预期增加、聚酯负荷坚挺且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求， PTA累库预期扭转，不排除阶段性去 库，PTA现货基差或得到支撑。不过绝对价格仍跟随成本端运行，关注装置变 ...

Report Overview - The report provides insights into the PX, PTA, and MEG markets, including price movements, market dynamics, and future trends [1][2][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Supply is tight due to increased overseas aromatics blending demand and planned production cuts at the South Korean GS disproportionation unit, leading to rising prices. It's recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA/PF/PR, and conduct a long PX and short pure benzene hedging operation. The price will be in a high - level oscillating market [7] - PTA: The upside space may be limited, and it's advised not to chase high prices. With cost support, the monthly spread view is revised to mainly positive arbitrage. The pressure of inventory accumulation has eased [7] - MEG: The medium - term trend is weak. It's advisable to short at high prices, and maintain reverse arbitrage for monthly spreads. There is an oversupply situation, and the unilateral upward driving force is insufficient [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: Naphtha prices were stagnant at the end of the session. PX prices rose, with two January Asian spot transactions at $832 and $831. The 1 - 2 month spread shifted from flat to continuous. Asian PX prices rebounded on November 19, mainly affected by the strong energy complex [3][4] - PTA: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started maintenance this week, expected to last 5 weeks [6] - Polyester: A new 100 - ton/day cationic staple fiber production line in a direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in northern Jiangsu was newly put into operation. A 300,000 - ton new polyester plant in Anhui and a 300,000 - ton new polyester filament plant in Xinjiang have started operation [6] Price and Spread Data - **Futures**: PX, PTA, PF, and SC futures prices rose, while MEG futures price fell. The monthly spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC all decreased [2] - **Spot**: PX, PTA, and naphtha prices rose, while MEG and Dated Brent prices fell. PX - naphtha spread decreased, PTA processing fee increased, and short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees decreased [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend; PTA and MEG trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral trend [7] Fundamentals - **PX**: Overseas refinery maintenance may lead to a continuous decline in gasoline and diesel inventories and strong cracking spreads until December. Domestic PX plants maintain high - level operation, but US and South Korean disproportionation units may cut production. The US - Asia window has opened, and domestic PTA plants face raw material supply shortages [7] - **PTA**: The extension of the maintenance time at Yisheng Ningbo and the commissioning of multiple new polyester plants have relieved the pressure of PTA inventory accumulation [7] - **MEG**: Although some devices have reduced production, new devices are being commissioned, and imports are expected to exceed 600,000 tons this month. Inventory continued to increase by 70,000 tons this Monday, and the polyester load will decline in December, resulting in an oversupply situation [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures oscillated and declined yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. The processing margin remains at a low level. It is expected that the PTA spot price will mainly oscillate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the changes in the equipment [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated and declined, and the spot basis continued to decline. In the long - term, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol. In the near - term, it has improved due to a reduction in some supplies. The short - term price center of ethylene glycol is expected to operate weakly, and there is continuous upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the outflow speed of warehouse receipts in northern Jiangsu [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review No content provided in the given text. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Futures oscillated down, spot negotiation general, basis slightly stronger, some polyester factories made bids, and a major supplier sold goods. Transaction prices and basis for different months were given [5]. - Basis: Spot price was 4605, 01 - contract basis was - 65, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 3.97 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net short position, changing from long to short [5]. - Expectation: Short - term price to follow cost side, basis to fluctuate, focus on equipment changes [5]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: Price center oscillated down, basis declined, night - session opened slightly higher and then weakened, and some traders actively bought far - month futures [7]. - Basis: Spot price was 3955, 01 - contract basis was 48, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in East China was 62.2 tons, an increase of 5.7 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions decreasing [7]. - Expectation: Long - term inventory pressure exists, short - term price to operate weakly, focus on supply changes and warehouse receipt outflow [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No content provided in the given text. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from January 2024 to December 2025 were presented, including PTA capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory. For example, in November 2025, PTA capacity was 9472, production was 638, and the ending inventory was 296 [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from January 2024 to December 2025 were provided, covering EG production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and port inventory. For instance, in November 2025, EG production was 58, total supply was 244, and port inventory change was 12 [12]. - **Price and Margin Data**: On November 18, 2025, compared with November 17, the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, and MEG changed, and the margins of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester products also changed. For example, the PTA processing fee decreased from 439.48 yuan/ton to 31.70 yuan/ton [13].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 11 月 19 日 对二甲苯：单边震荡市，不追高 PTA：单边震荡市，不追高 MEG：供应压力仍存，趋势偏弱 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6768 | 4670 | 3907 | 6188 | 458.8 | | 涨跌 | -28 | -22 | -31 | -42 | -0.4 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.41% | -0.47% | -0.79% | -0.67% | -0.09% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -8 | -56 | -90 | -42 | 1.4 | | 前日收盘价 | -24 | -64 | -85 | -46 | 0.7 | | 涨跌 | 16 | 8 | -5 | 4 | 0.7 | | 现货 | PX CFR ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is in a unilateral volatile market, and it's not advisable to chase high prices. Overseas gasoline is in short supply with low inventory, and the strong cracking spread may last until the end of November, which drives PX valuation. However, downstream marginal demand is weakening, and supply is at a high level, so the upside space may be limited. Maintain reverse spread operation for the monthly spread [1][6]. - PTA is also in a unilateral volatile market, not recommended to chase high. It has cost support, but the upside space may be limited. Weaving domestic demand and new orders are weakening, and the polyester load is temporarily reduced. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial for filament exports. After load adjustment, the subsequent load will remain low, and the inventory accumulation pressure may be alleviated, but it will enter the inventory accumulation pattern again in December. Maintain 1 - 5 reverse spread operation [1][7][8]. - For MEG, new plants are put into operation, and inventory continues to accumulate, with supply pressure remaining. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol will further increase, and the inventory has continued to accumulate by 70,000 tons this week, and the unilateral basis trend remains weak [1][5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, PF, and SC decreased yesterday, with declines of -0.15%, -0.17%, -0.13%, and -0.07% respectively, while MEG increased by 0.41%. In terms of monthly spreads, PX1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 increased, and PTA1 - 5 decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent all decreased yesterday. In terms of spot processing fees, PX - naphtha spread, short - fiber processing fee, and bottle - chip processing fee decreased, while PTA processing fee increased, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread remained unchanged [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session. Today's PX price was weakly maintained, with a January Asian spot transaction at 830. The market is waiting for a clearer answer regarding the 2026 term negotiation. The buying interest for January and February arrival goods increased on November 17 [3][4]. - **PTA**: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started scheduled maintenance today, expected to last about a week. The cancellation of India's quality control order on PTA boosted market sentiment, but actual demand growth has not yet emerged [4]. - **MEG**: The inventory in East China's main ports increased by 71,000 tons compared to the previous period. A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Inner Mongolia restarted, and a 200,000 - ton/year new plant in Ningxia is in the front - end feeding and startup stage [5]. - **Polyester**: A 200,000 - ton polyester plant in Jiangyin restarted last Saturday. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were light today, with an average production - sales ratio of 35%. The production - sales ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was generally weak, with an average of 40% - 50% [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Fundamental Analysis - **PX**: Overseas gasoline is in short supply, and the strong cracking spread may last until the end of November, driving PX valuation. However, downstream marginal demand is weakening, and supply is at a high level, so the upside space is limited [6]. - **PTA**: It has cost support, but the upside space is limited. Weaving domestic demand and new orders are weakening, and the polyester load is temporarily reduced. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial for filament exports. After load adjustment, the subsequent load will remain low, and the inventory accumulation pressure may be alleviated, but it will enter the inventory accumulation pattern again in December [7][8]. - **MEG**: The domestic supply of ethylene glycol will further increase, and the inventory has continued to accumulate by 70,000 tons this week, and the unilateral basis trend remains weak [8].

2025 年 11 月 17 日 对二甲苯：中期偏强，正套 PTA：成本支撑偏强 MEG：供应压力边际缓解，但反弹高度或有限 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | | --- | | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6806 | 4700 | 3922 | 6238 | 459.5 | | 涨跌 | -30 | 0 | 30 | 14 | 6.6 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.44% | 0.00% | 0.77% | 0.22% | 1.46% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -26 | -62 | -91 | -48 | -0.9 | | 前日收盘价 | -8 | -54 | -86 | -46 | 2.6 | | 涨跌 | -18 | -8 | -5 | -2 | -3. ...

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 17 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The upstream fluctuations of short - fiber and bottle - chip have amplified, and both are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber 2512 decreased from 6192 to 6176, a change of - 16; short - fiber 2601 decreased from 6236 to 6222, a change of - 14; short - fiber 2602 remained unchanged at 6224. The PF12 - 01 spread changed from - 44 to - 46, a change of - 2; the PF01 - 02 spread changed from 12 to - 2, a change of - 14. The short - fiber主力基差 decreased from 123 to 119, a change of - 4. The short - fiber主力持仓量 decreased from 123296 to 110425, a change of - 12871; the short - fiber主力成交量 decreased from 64616 to 47495, a change of - 17121. The short - fiber华东现货 price decreased from 6.315 to 6.295, a change of - 20. The short - fiber产销率 increased from 38% to 56%, a change of 18% [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: The price of bottle - chip 2512 increased from 5736 to 5750, a change of 14; bottle - chip 2601 increased from 5718 to 5724, a change of 6; bottle - chip 2602 increased from 5756 to 5776, a change of 20. The PR12 - 01 spread increased from 18 to 26, a change of 8; the PR01 - 02 spread changed from - 38 to - 52, a change of - 14. The bottle - chip主力基差 decreased from 27 to - 4, a change of - 31. The bottle - chip主力持仓量 decreased from 40157 to 39714, a change of - 443. The bottle - chip主力成交量 increased from 39984 to 111874, a change of 71890. The bottle - chip华东现货 price decreased from 5745 to 5720, a change of - 25; the bottle - chip华南现货 price decreased from 5770 to 5750, a change of - 20 [1]. Spot News - **Short - fiber**: The decline of short - fiber futures narrowed. Zhejiang and Jiangsu factories' spot quotes remained stable, while those in Fujian dropped by 50. The mainstream quotation of semi - dull 1.4D was 6450 - 6500 for ex - factory or short - distance delivery, with discounts available for negotiation. Affected by the decline in oil prices, low - point price transactions of short - fiber increased in the morning. The mainstream negotiation price of semi - dull 1.4D was in the range of 6150 - 6400. Affected by the cancellation of India's BIS certification, the sales of factories showed high - low differentiation, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 56% by 3:00 pm [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: In the morning, the upstream raw material futures fell weakly, and polyester bottle - chip factories mostly lowered their quotes by 20 - 50 yuan. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market rebounded during the day, but most transactions were concentrated in the previous range. After the futures rose in the afternoon, the market follow - up was limited, and the price gap between different brands was large. Orders from November to January were mostly traded at 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton ex - factory, slightly lower at 5610 - 5640 yuan/ton ex - factory, and slightly higher at 5780 - 5810 yuan/ton ex - factory [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of short - fiber is 0, and the trend intensity of bottle - chip is 0, referring only to the daily - session price fluctuations of the main contracts on the report day [2][3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Medium-term trend is bullish, and positive spread arbitrage is recommended [1][4] - PTA: Sideways trading at high levels, and short the processing margin on rallies [1][4] - MEG: Medium-term trend remains bearish [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The market focused on India's cancellation of BIS certification requirements for PX, PTA, MEG and downstream polyester products, and the impact of a CDU device fire on downstream chemical plant operations. PX prices rose significantly, and MEG rebounded from the bottom [4][5] - Overseas gasoline blending demand is good, the arbitrage window for exporting Korean aromatic products such as MX and PX to the US is open, and some units have cut operating rates due to heavy losses in the disproportionation unit, resulting in tight PX supply. There will be no new domestic PX capacity in the first half of 2026, and there is a supply shortage in Southeast Asia. Based on the current high operating rate of polyester, there will still be a supply-demand gap for PX in the future [4] - Polyester load has rebounded more than expected, and PTA demand is fair. PTA operating rate has declined, and the inventory build-up pressure in the first half of November has eased. However, the future inventory build-up pattern is clear, and there is limited space for further positive spread arbitrage [4] - The future supply-demand situation of MEG remains oversupplied, and the medium-term trend remains bearish [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On November 13, the PX price remained firm. One December Asian spot was traded at $823, and the 12 - month MOPJ was estimated at $557/ton CFR [2] - PTA: The Nengtou 1 million - ton unit was shut down as planned, and the Zhongtai 1.2 million - ton unit increased its load to 90%. As of Thursday, the PTA load was adjusted to 75.7%, and the operating rate was around 81.2% [2] - MEG: As of November 13, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 72.59% (up 0.15% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 69.34% (down 2.6% from the previous period). Since October 1, 2025, the ethylene glycol production capacity base in mainland China has been adjusted to 30.075 million tons, and the total production capacity of syngas - based ethylene glycol is 10.96 million tons [2] - Polyester: On November 13, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were polarized, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 56%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was weak, with an average of about 40% [3] - On November 12, 2025, India revoked the BIS certification requirements for PX, PTA, MEG and downstream polyester products [3] Futures and Spot Data - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF and SC futures were 6836, 4700, 3892, 6224 and 452.9 respectively, with daily changes of 62, 30, 1, - 18 and - 16.2, and daily change rates of 0.92%, 0.64%, 0.03%, - 0.29% and - 3.45% [1] - Spot: The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ and Dated Brent were $825.67/ton, 4565 yuan/ton, 3943 yuan/ton, $569.12/ton and $62.2/barrel respectively [1] - Spot Processing Margin: The PX - naphtha price difference, PTA processing margin, short - fiber processing margin, bottle - chip processing margin and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil price difference were $241.58/ton, 168.73 yuan/ton, 259.02 yuan/ton, 54.06 yuan/ton and - $4.34/ton respectively [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA and MEG are all neutral [3] Views and Suggestions - PX: The medium - term trend is bullish, and positive spread arbitrage is recommended. Do not chase the price in the short term [4] - PTA: Sideways trading at high levels. Short the processing margin on rallies when it is above 250 - 300 [4] - MEG: The medium - term trend remains bearish [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: MEG Daily Report - Date: November 13, 2025 - Industry: Energy and Chemicals [1][2] Core View - Due to insufficient bullish support at the fundamental and macro levels of ethylene glycol, market participants are mostly cautious and waiting. It is expected that ethylene glycol may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The closing price of EG2601 was 3891 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the closing price of EG2605 was 3979 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. The trading volume of the main ethylene glycol futures contract on the 12th was 192,653 lots, and the open interest was 366,485 lots [7] 2. Industry News - Oil Price: International oil prices rose for the third consecutive day, but the increase was limited due to concerns about oversupply. On November 11th, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 was $61.04 per barrel, up $0.91 or 1.51%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 was $65.16 per barrel, up $1.10 or 1.72% [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: The spot negotiation price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang this week was 3956 - 3958 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The basis of this week's spot, next week's spot, and November's spot were all at a premium of 65 - 67 yuan/ton compared to EG2601 [8] - Polyester Market: The sales of polyester filament were sluggish, the raw material market weakened, the polyester appropriately gave back the price difference, and downstream purchases were few [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG futures price, futures - spot price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory [10][15][16]