期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 09 日 对二甲苯：单边高位震荡市，关注月差正套 PTA：高位震荡市 MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7168 | 5086 | 3846 | 6490 | 416.2 | | 涨跌 | -118 | -64 | -33 | -54 | -0.1 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.62% | -1.24% | -0.85% | -0.83% | -0.02% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | 88 | 60 | -91 | -54 | -1.1 | | 前日收盘价 | 114 | 76 | -91 | -70 | -3 | | 涨跌 | -26 | -16 | 0 | 16 | 1.9 | | 现货 | PX ...

加入交易理想国知识星球获取完整版PDF报告及精简版EXCEL 整理 | 对冲研投编辑组 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 新年伊始，我们搜集整理了31家机构对于大宗商品市场2026 年的策略展望，从机构一致看多，一致看空，分期显著以及其他中性四个角度，覆盖了有色、 黑色、能源、化工、农产品、软商品等多个商品板块47个交易品种，就2026年大宗商品机会与风险进行分析，希望对大家新一年的交易有所帮助。 本系列分为：一、基本金属篇；二、黑色金属篇；三、能源化工品种篇；四、农产品软商品篇。 本篇为系列第三篇，覆盖能源化工品种。 开年必读 | 31家投研团队、47个期货品种的观点、共性逻辑、分歧点都在这了（一） 开年必读 | 31家投研团队、47个期货品种的观点、共性逻辑、分歧点都在这了（二） | | 一致看多品种 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 机构观点高度统一看涨，核心逻辑共振。 | | | 品种 | 代表性机构观点 | 核心逻辑 | | 货(偏多)、中信建投期货(强势偏多)、融达期货(相对乐观)。 PX(对二甲苯) | 明确偏多/强势:紫金天风期货(偏强)、五矿期货(明确偏多)、一德 ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 对二甲苯：短期高位震荡市 PTA：高位震荡市 MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7336 | 5150 | 3838 | 6532 | 428.2 | | 涨跌 | 126 | 104 | 106 | 70 | 6.5 | | 涨跌幅 | 1.75% | 2.06% | 2.84% | 1.08% | 1.54% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | 112 | 90 | -86 | -54 | -0.7 | | 前日收盘价 | 122 | 90 | -90 | -70 | 1.5 | | 涨跌 | -12 | 0 | 4 | 16 | -2.2 | | 现货 ...

（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 【20260106】聚酯周报：估值有修复，预期尚可 PTA观点小结 核心观点：中性 假期PTA变化不大，聚酯略降负，近端平衡偏紧，1-2月季节性累库压力不大，现货加 工费走扩较明显，估值修复后驱动一般，短期关注成本和资金影响。 现货：中性 PTA现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差偏强，1月在05-40~45附近商谈。 成本：中性 PX供应有提负计划，PXN高位持稳，估值有修复。 装置变动：中性 PTA装置检修中，关注加工费修复后检修是否存在变数，YS3套检修中，中泰重启，独 山1重启，独山3检修，威联提负至9成，1月新材料、英力士有检修计划。 下游需求：中性 需求织造季节性略走淡，聚酯大厂有减仓，节后负荷90.8%不低，聚酯12-1月开工评估 91%、88%。加弹、织机、印染有降负至74%、59%、69%。 供需平衡：谨慎偏强 PTA国内检修高位，聚酯负荷持稳，12月平衡偏紧去库，1-2月累库压力季节性同 比不高。 加工利润：谨慎偏空 PTA-布油价差修复较多，PXN至350+美元偏高，PTA加工费修复至300+元。 PX观点小结 核心观点：中性 PX供需尚 ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 05 日 对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市 PTA：成本支撑，高位震荡市 MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7260 | 5110 | 3803 | 6514 | 432.2 | | 涨跌 | -56 | -34 | -44 | -50 | -3.9 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.77% | -0.66% | -1.14% | -0.76% | -0.89% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -36 | -44 | -194 | -54 | -1.7 | | 前日收盘价 | -28 | -36 | -187 | -70 | -0.6 | | 涨跌 | -8 | -8 | ...

PX和PTA强预期修复利润， 乙二醇弱基本面下震荡筑底 聚酯月报 2026/01/04 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 从业资格号：F03136381 徐绍祖（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 PTA基本面 02 期现市场 05 MEG基本面 ◆ 行情回顾：上月价格大幅上涨，截至12月30日，05合约收盘价5152元，月同比上涨400元；华东现货价格5100元，同比上涨380元。基差和价 差方面，截至12月30日，基差-50元，月同比下跌12元；5-9价差94元，同比上涨34元。 ◆ 供应端：月底PTA负荷72.5%，月环比下降1.2%。十二月检修装置有所增加，整体负荷低于十一月。一月检修量预期仍然较多，平均负荷持稳。 ◆ 需求端：月底聚酯负荷90.4%，同比下降1.1%，其中长丝负荷89.2%，下降5.2%；短纤负荷96.2%，同比下降1.3%；甁片负荷73.4%，上升1.2%。 涤纶方面，库存压力较低，利润较差，利润压力叠加淡季来临，预期负荷将持续下降；甁片库存及利润偏稳定 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：成本驱动偏强 供应 国产供应端福佳大化100万吨装置重启，印度GAIL采购中东PX货源，为3-4月开车做准备。国内PX开工在88%。 需求 PTA国产装置方面，盘面05合约加工费上涨至300+元/吨，略显偏高，新凤鸣1期250万吨、中泰化学120万吨装置重启，开工率预计回升，未 来关注逸盛新材料360万吨检修计划，总体开工率维持在71%左右。 观点 成本支撑偏强，正套持有。1月3日，美国对委内瑞拉展开空袭并成功抓获总统马杜拉，市场预计该地原油出口短期或下滑30-60万桶/日，油价 在此背景下短线预计冲高，对PX形成估值上的支撑。 估值 PXN357美元/吨，石脑油负反馈，PXN持续扩大。PX-MX韩国FOB价差149美金/吨（-8），美国PX-MX价147美金/吨（+14），山东PX- MX价1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level volatile market [1][6] - PTA: High-level volatile market [1][7] - MEG: Limited upside space, medium-term pressure, price range volatile market [1][8] Core Views - PX is expected to maintain a high-level volatile market due to increased supply and decreased demand, but the tight balance pattern cannot be falsified for now [6] - PTA is in a high-level volatile market with supply reduction and demand increase, leading to continuous inventory depletion and positive impacts on monthly spreads and basis [7] - MEG is in a price range volatile market. Although the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change, the supply is expected to shrink, and the inventory accumulation expectation has marginally improved [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - An 700,000-ton PX unit in the Northeast is currently restarting, and its capacity will expand to 1 million tons/year after restart [2] - A 3.6-million-ton PTA unit in East China is currently increasing its load [2] - A 550,000-ton/year MEG unit in Saudi Arabia has returned to normal operation, and another 450,000-ton/year MEG unit will undergo planned maintenance in Q1. Two 700,000-ton/year MEG units are in different states of parking and restart [2][3] - A 200,000-ton polyester unit in Wujiang and a 300,000-ton polyester bottle chip unit in South China have restarted, while a 200,000-ton direct-spun polyester staple fiber factory in Anhui plans to stop for maintenance on January 28 and restart in early March, and a 1.2-million-ton polyester bottle chip factory in Jiangyin plans to stop for maintenance in mid-January and restart in March [5] Price Quotes - **Futures**: PX, PTA, PF prices rose, SC price fell, and MEG price slightly increased. Some of their monthly spreads also changed [2] - **Spot**: PX, PTA, MEG, and Dated Brent prices increased, and the prices of other spots also changed to varying degrees [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX-naphtha price spread, PTA processing fee, and short fiber processing fee increased, while bottle chip processing fee decreased, and MOPJ naphtha-Dubai crude oil price spread slightly increased [2] Trend Strength - The trend strength of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: High-level volatile market, pay attention to position management before the holiday. Supply is marginally loosening, and demand is decreasing, but the tight balance pattern persists [6] - **PTA**: High-level volatile market, pay attention to position management before the holiday. Supply is decreasing, demand is increasing, and inventory is continuously depleted [7] - **MEG**: Supply is expected to shrink, price range volatile market. Although the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change, the situation has marginally improved [8]

PTA&MEG 聚聚聚聚聚 聚聚聚聚 2025/12/23 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 作者：刘思琪 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 从业资格证号：F3083559 交易咨询证号：Z0016260 邮箱：liusiqi@zjtfqh.com 观点小结 | PTA | 聚聚聚聚聚 | 聚聚 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | PTA近端偏紧，1-2月季节性累库量低于往年同期，预期格局不差，近期反弹偏多，需求边际反馈有出现， 关注回调低买。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 近端一般远月预期好，关注远月月差逢低正套机会。 | | 现货 | 中性 | PTA现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走弱，贸易商商谈为主，少量聚酯工厂递盘。12月货在主流在01贴 水17成交。 | | 成本 | 中性 | PX供需变化不大，歧化有重启传闻，PXN估值走扩偏高，反映了远月预期。 | | 装置变动 | 中性 | PTA装置检修量不低，变化不大。YS宁波220万吨重启、大化、海南、独山1#检修中，英力士110重启125 降负，能投延后到1月上重启。 | | 下游需求 | 中性 | 需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Trend is strongly positive [1] - PTA: Cost support is strongly positive [1] - MEG: Valuation rebounds from the bottom, but there is still pressure in the medium term [1] Core Viewpoints - PX: The unilateral price trend is strongly positive and squeezes downstream profits. Pay attention to the long PX and short PF/PR/BZ/EB positions, and the 5 - 9 calendar spread positive arbitrage. Despite polyester factory production cuts, the tight PX supply expectation cannot be falsified in the short - term [9]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, the unilateral trend is upward, with positive arbitrage. Go long PTA and short PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB. Tight PX supply supports the cost and continues to squeeze downstream profits [9]. - MEG: Affected by the news of a 720,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan planning to shut down next month, the ethylene glycol market rose, with short - covering accelerating the increase. The shutdown is expected to reduce mainland imports by 40,000 - 50,000 tons per month. Current MEG valuation is low, causing domestic plants to enter the loss zone and some to consider reducing production. However, high port inventories and polyester production cut expectations limit the upside [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures**: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had closing prices of 7,294, 5,094, 3,818, 6,484, and 444.7 respectively yesterday. The price changes were - 8, 12, 195, 32, and 3.8, with percentage changes of - 0.11%, 0.24%, 5.38%, 0.50%, and 0.86% respectively [2]. - **Calendar Spreads**: PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 had closing prices of - 82, - 66, - 152, - 54, and - 0.3 respectively yesterday. The price changes were - 16, 2, - 33, 16, and - 1.2 respectively [2]. - **Spot**: PX CFR China was 901 dollars/ton, PTA in East China was 5,018 yuan/ton, MEG spot was 3,598 yuan/ton, naphtha MOPJ was 540.25 dollars/ton, and Dated Brent was 63.52 dollars/barrel yesterday. The price changes were 5, 63, 76, - 2, and 0.45 respectively [2]. - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing margin, short - fiber processing margin, bottle - chip processing margin, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread were 335.45, 150.47, 221.69, 40.59, and - 4.23 respectively yesterday. The price changes were 30.34, - 28.15, - 24.11, - 61.21, and 0.11 respectively [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: A 200,000 - ton PX plant in Japan is currently restarting after a shutdown in mid - September. A 700,000 - ton PX plant in the Northeast plans to restart this weekend, with capacity expected to expand to 1 million tons after restart. A 390,000 - ton PX plant in North China is shut down, and the restart time is undetermined [2]. - **PTA**: In November, China's PTA exports increased by about 61% compared to October, with a significant increase in Indian buyers' interest. India bought 69,802 tons of PTA in November, more than five times the amount in October. Vietnam's imports increased slightly to 34,120 tons in November. Egypt's imports also increased by about 53% to 92,052 tons [5]. - **MEG**: From December 22 to December 28, the expected arrivals at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, and Ningbo are about 15,000 tons, 89,000 tons, and 14,000 tons respectively. Two MEG plants in Taiwan with a total capacity of 720,000 tons/year plan to shut down next month, and the restart time is undetermined. An Iranian 500,000 - ton/year MEG plant has restarted recently [6]. - **Polyester**: The total planned production cuts of three major polyester filament manufacturers are about 2.494 million tons, including 1.61 million tons of POY and 883,000 tons of FDY. A 200,000 - ton polyester plant in Tongxiang has shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. On December 24, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 80%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on December 24 was generally weak, with an average of about 40% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [8]