贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 期 货 研 究 2026 年 03 月 03 日 对二甲苯：地缘影响下，成本推涨 PTA：成本支撑偏强 MEG：单边趋势偏强 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7836 | 5552 | 3925 | 7002 | 527.8 | | 涨跌 | 442 | 302 | 222 | 350 | 39.4 | | 涨跌幅 | 5.98% | 5.75% | 6.00% | 5.26% | 8.07% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | 昨日收盘价 | 30 | 14 | -107 | -254 | 4.5 | | 前日收盘价 | -26 | -26 | -132 | -62 | 4.4 | | 涨跌 | 56 | 40 | 25 | -192 | 0.1 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PT ...

期 货 研 究 PX：尾盘石脑油价格上涨，3 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 620 美元/吨 CFR。2 月 26 日 PX 价格小幅反弹，两 单 4 月亚洲现货均在 929 成交。尾盘实货 4 月在 929/931 商谈，5 月在 928/937 商谈。2 月 26 日 PX 估价在 931 美元/吨，较 2 月 25 日上涨 2 美金。 2026 年 02 月 27 日 对二甲苯：跟随成本波动，区间震荡市 PTA：跟随成本波动，区间震荡市 MEG：区间震荡市，多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7382 | 5260 | 3700 | 6658 | 483.6 | | 涨跌 | -50 | -52 | -47 | -64 | -4.7 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.67% | -0.98% | -1.25% | -0.95% | -0.96% | | ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 02 月 26 日 对二甲苯：成本支撑偏强 PTA：成本支撑偏强 MEG：区间震荡市，多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 所 | PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 7432 | 5312 | 3747 | 6722 | 488.3 | | | 涨跌 | -46 | -40 | 10 | -68 | -5 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.62% | -0.75% | 0.27% | -1.00% | -1.01% | | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 20 | 14 | -118 | -98 | 5 | | | 前日收盘价 | 26 | 32 | -112 | -66 | -0.6 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral oscillating market, weakening monthly spread [2] - PTA: Range - bound oscillating market [2] - MEG: Range - bound operation [2] 2. Core Views - PX: Before the festival, it's a range - bound oscillating market with support below, conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage. In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain gradually weakens. PX operating rate rises, PXN processing fee is continuously compressed, and try shorting PTA processing fee when it is above 450 [11] - PTA: The downward space may be limited, monthly spread is bearish. Try shorting PTA processing fee when it is above 450. Pay attention to the 5100 yuan/ton support for the unilateral position [11] - MEG: Inventory continues to rise, supply pressure is still high. Conduct basis and monthly spread reverse arbitrage operations. The monthly spread and basis trends remain weak [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Yesterday's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF and SC were 7308, 5230, 3733, 6626 and 476.1 respectively. Their price changes were 18, 38, - 6, 20 and 11.9, and the price change rates were 0.25%, 0.73%, - 0.16%, 0.30% and 2.56% respectively [4] - For the monthly spreads, the closing prices of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4 and SC2 - 3 yesterday were 8, 28, - 108, - 74 and - 2.7, with price changes of - 8, 20, 2, 6 and - 2.8 respectively [4] 3.2 Spot Market - Yesterday's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ and Dated Brent were 909 dollars/ton, 5145 yuan/ton, 3625 yuan/ton, 612.38 dollars/ton and 72.04 dollars/barrel respectively. Their price changes were 8.67 dollars/ton, 37 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, 14.5 dollars/ton and - 0.07 dollars/barrel respectively [4] - Yesterday's spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, staple fiber processing fee, bottle chip processing fee and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 294.05 dollars/ton, 378.86 yuan/ton, 71.28 yuan/ton, 294.17 yuan/ton and - 4.34 dollars/ton respectively. Their price changes were 5.96 dollars/ton, - 49.15 yuan/ton, 29.19 yuan/ton, 70.13 yuan/ton and 0 dollars/ton respectively [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - PX: Asian xylene prices were evaluated as rising in the upstream market. The CFR Unv1/China and FOB South Korea quotes of Asian paraxylene on February 10 were 909 dollars/ton and 888 dollars/ton respectively, with a single - day increase of 8.67 dollars/ton. The PX - naphtha physical spread shrank to 296.625 dollars/ton on that day, with an intraday decrease of 5.83 dollars/ton [5][7] - PTA: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China was expected to stop on the evening of February 10, and the specific restart time was undetermined [8] - MEG: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the statistical period was extended to February 23. From February 9 to February 23, the expected arrival quantities in Zhangjiagang, Taicang, Ningbo and Shanghai were about 97,000 tons, 63,000 tons, 21,000 tons and 0 tons respectively, and the total planned arrival quantity at the main ports was about 181,000 tons [8] - Polyester: A 460,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Jiangyin gradually reduced production to 350 tons per day from February 10 for half a month. A 200,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Fujian stopped for maintenance from February 10, and another 250,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory reduced production by 30% from February 10 [8] 3.4 Market Sales - On February 10, most direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories had no sales. As of around 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 31% [9] - On February 10, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to be weak. As of around 4:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was estimated to be around 20% [9] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [10] 3.6 Supply and Demand Analysis - PX: In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain gradually weakens. PX operating rate rises to 89.5% (+0.3%), and the Asian device operating rate is 82.4% (+0.8%). The PTA demand side has no obvious change and remains at 77.6% (+1%) [11] - PTA: The terminal demand is that domestic textile sales ended in January, foreign trade has orders, and the polyester operating rate is expected to be 80.5% in February and recover to 91% in March. The current polyester inventory is moderately low, and the pressure after the festival is less than in previous years [11] - MEG: The supply side has an increasing operating rate this week, reaching 76.22% (+1.85%). Overseas device supply will decrease significantly in March. However, due to the large - scale shutdown of polyester on the demand side, the inventory accumulation pressure in February is large, and it is difficult to digest the inventory after the festival [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level shock market before the holiday, with a bearish view on the monthly spread [7] - PTA: Range-bound shock market, with a bearish view on the monthly spread [8] - MEG: Range-bound shock market, operate within the range of 3700 - 4000 [9] 2. Core Views - The overall market of PX, PTA, and MEG is in a state of high-level or range-bound shock, with varying degrees of bearishness on spreads and a general trend of inventory accumulation [7][8][9] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs PX - **Price and Market Conditions**: On February 3, the PX price rebounded, with multiple spot transactions. The PX valuation was 897 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars from the previous day. The PX-石脑油 spread in January averaged 342.17 dollars/ton, higher than that in December. The PX futures closed higher, and the buying interest in CFR Unv1/China goods in March and April was strong [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The upstream performance was mixed. The domestic PX device restarted, and the domestic device operating rate rose to 89.2%. The Asian device operating rate was 81.6% (+1%). The PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 76.6%. The PX entered the inventory accumulation pattern, and the monthly import volume in the first quarter increased to about 900,000 tons [7] - **Trading Suggestions**: High-level shock market before the holiday, monthly spread anti-arbitrage. Try shorting PTA processing fees when they are above 450 [7] PTA - **Price and Market Conditions**: The PTA spot price fell to 5080 yuan/ton, with a weak basis and light trading volume after the price increase [5][8] - **Fundamentals**: The polyester operating rate was expected to be 88% in January, 80.5% in February, and 91% in March. The current polyester inventory was neutral, and the rigid demand for PTA was expected to decline marginally. The PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 76.6%, and the new Fengming 2.5 million tons was planned to be overhauled in February, which could not change the inventory accumulation pattern from January to February [8] - **Trading Suggestions**: Range-bound shock market, monthly spread bearish. Try shorting PTA processing fees when they are above 450. Pay attention to the support at 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [8] MEG - **Price and Market Conditions**: A 500,000 tons/year MEG device in South China restarted, with a load of over 80%. The arrival volume at major ports from February 2 to 8 was about 123,000 tons [5] - **Fundamentals**: The device operating rate rose to 74.4% (+1.3%). The import volume of ethylene glycol from January to February remained high, with an average monthly volume of over 700,000 tons. The weekly arrival volume decreased to 120,000 tons. The downstream polyester operating rate was expected to decline marginally in the short term, and the rigid demand for MEG weakened, making it difficult to change the inventory accumulation pattern [9] - **Trading Suggestions**: Range-bound shock market, operate within the range of 3700 - 4000 [9] Polyester - The sales volume of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on February 3 was generally light, with an average sales volume estimated at 10 - 20% by 3:45 pm. The sales volume of direct-spun polyester staple fiber factories was highly differentiated, with an average sales volume of 57% by 3:00 pm [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Followed the sharp decline in oil prices, with an interval shock market [1] - PTA: Interval shock market [1] - MEG: Interval operation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a pre - holiday unilateral shock market, with fundamentals gradually weakening and entering a inventory accumulation pattern. Consider the long PX and short EB hedge [8] - PTA is in an interval shock market with a bearish monthly spread. Short when the processing fee is above 450. Pay attention to the support in the 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton interval [9] - MEG is in a unilateral interval shock market. The supply pressure is still high, but the downside space below 3600 yuan/ton is limited, and the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [10] 3. Key Points by Related Content Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the main contract was 7150, down 250 or 3.38% from the previous day. The PX5 - 9 spread closed at 20, up 4 from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The closing price of the main contract was 5092, down 178 or 3.38% from the previous day. The PTA5 - 9 spread closed at - 8, up 4 from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The closing price of the main contract was 3767, down 146 or 3.73% from the previous day. The MEG5 - 9 spread closed at - 104, up 1 from the previous day [2] - **PF**: The closing price of the main contract was 6484, down 172 or 2.58% from the previous day. The PF3 - 4 spread closed at - 48, up 8 from the previous day [2] - **SC**: The closing price of the main contract was 449, down 21.8 or 4.63% from the previous day. The SC2 - 3 spread closed at - 7.2, down 2 from the previous day [2] Spot Market - **PX**: The CFR China price was 891.67 dollars/ton, down 22.66 dollars from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 316.83 dollars/ton, down 8.17 dollars from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The East China price was 5125 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan from the previous day. The processing fee was 485.25 yuan/ton, up 86.82 yuan from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The spot price was 3712 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan from the previous day [2] - **Naphtha MOPJ**: The price was 581.38 dollars/ton, down 15.12 dollars from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - **Dated Brent**: The price was 68.77 dollars/barrel, down 3.94 dollars from the previous day [2] Fundamental Data - **PX**: On February 2, the PX price fell. The 3 - month MOPJ was estimated at 571 dollars/ton CFR. The PX was estimated at 891 dollars/ton, down 22 dollars from last Friday. The domestic device start - up rate rose to 89.2%, and the Asian device start - up rate was 81.6% (+1%) [3][8] - **PTA**: A 100 - million - ton PTA device in the southwest is preparing to restart. The PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 76.6%. The polyester start - up rate is expected to be 88% in January, 80.5% in February, and 91% in March [3][9] - **MEG**: On February 2, the port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 89.7 million tons, an increase of 3.9 million tons from the previous period. The device start - up rate rose to 74.4% (+1.3%). The import volume from January to February will remain high, with a monthly average of over 70 million tons [3][10] Polyester Market - Two polyester devices in Shaoxing with a total of 40 million tons and two with a total of 55 million tons are planned to be shut down for maintenance starting from the 5th. A 20 - million - ton polyester device in Huzhou has been shut down for maintenance since the weekend [5] - In January, the average sales volume of domestic mainstream direct - spinning filament factories was estimated to be around 94%. On February 2, the sales volume of Jiangsu and Zhejiang filament was light, with an average sales volume estimated to be 2 - 30% by 3:30 pm. The average sales volume of direct - spinning staple fiber factories was 44% by 3:00 pm [5][6] Trend Strength - The trend strength of p - xylene is 0 - The trend strength of PTA is 0 - The trend strength of MEG is 0 [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level volatile market, backwardation in calendar spreads - PTA: High-level volatile market - MEG: Range-bound trading [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Before the holiday, it will be a high-level volatile market in the single contract, with backwardation in calendar spreads. The industry and funds are in a game, and the high-level volatility increases. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, and PX has entered a pattern of inventory accumulation. PTA processing fees above 450 should be shorted on rallies [7]. - PTA: It will be a range-bound market, with a bearish outlook on calendar spreads. PTA processing fees above 450 should be shorted on rallies. The polyester demand for PTA is expected to decline marginally, and it is difficult to change the PTA inventory accumulation pattern from January to February. Pay attention to the support at 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [8]. - MEG: It will be a range-bound market in the single contract. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weakening, making it difficult to change the inventory accumulation pattern [8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - Yesterday's closing prices: PX主力 at 7400, PTA主力 at 5270, MEG主力 at 3913, PF主力 at 6656, SC主力 at 470.8. The price changes were -82, -62, -44, -64, -1.7 respectively, and the percentage changes were -1.10%, -1.16%, -1.11%, -0.95%, -0.36% respectively [2]. - Calendar spreads: PX5 - 9 at 16, PTA5 - 9 at -12, MEG5 - 9 at -105, PF3 - 4 at -56, SC2 - 3 at -5.2. The price changes were 0, 6, -8, 0, 2.6 respectively [2]. Spot Market - Yesterday's spot prices: PX CFR China at 914.33 dollars/ton, PTA East China at 5290 yuan/ton, MEG spot at 3814 yuan/ton, Naphtha MOPJ at 596.5 dollars/ton, Dated Brent at 72.7 dollars/barrel. The price changes were -7, 40, -23, 0.5, 0.35 respectively [2]. - Spot processing fees: PX - Naphtha spread at 325 dollars/ton, PTA processing fee at 398.44 yuan/ton, Short - fiber processing fee at 120.64 yuan/ton, Bottle - chip processing fee at 121.38 yuan/ton, MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai crude spread at -4.34 dollars/ton. The price changes were -13, 6.79, -21.37, -73.92, 0 respectively [2]. Fundamental News - PX: On January 30, the PX price fell. The physical spread between PX and naphtha narrowed. The domestic PX plant operating rate rose to 89.2%, and the Asian plant operating rate was 81.6% (+1%). The PTA operating rate remained at 76.6%. The PX import volume in the first quarter increased to about 900,000 tons per month [3][5][7]. - MEG: A 400,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang plans to shut down for equipment replacement this weekend, expected to last about 5 days. The plant operating rate rose to 74.4% (+1.3%), and the import volume from January to February will remain high [6][8]. - Polyester: The polyester maintenance volume from January to February was about 1.562 million tons, and a 200,000 - ton plant is scheduled for maintenance in March. A 400,000 - ton plant in Zhejiang will shut down for maintenance and plans to restart in early March. On January 30, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were polarized, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 65%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was about 30% [6].

Report Summary - **Report Date**: January 30, 2026 [1] - **Analyst**: He Xiaoqin, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0017709 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral upward trend, recommend reverse calendar spread strategy [1][5] - PTA: Supported by cost, unilateral upward trend [1][6] - MEG: Upward trend [1][6] Core Views - **PX**: With continuous rise in crude oil prices and overall valuation increase in the chemical sector, the medium - term unilateral trend is upward. Before the Spring Festival, there are more pullbacks, and a reverse calendar spread strategy is recommended. Supply is abundant after the restart of the 800,000 - ton Zhonghua Quanzhou plant. The trading logic is mainly on the capital side, and downstream pre - festival rigid procurement demand drives up prices [5]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend is upward with the continuous rise in crude oil prices. Pay attention to the 5,100 - 5,200 support range. Future supply and demand will be weak, and inventory will accumulate. Some polyester plants plan to increase production cuts in February, weakening the rigid demand for PTA. There is pressure above 5,500, but there will be support around 5,100. Short the processing margin on rallies [6]. - **MEG**: Buy on dips and trade in the 3,800 - 4,200 range. Supply pressure remains high, and port inventory has increased to 860,000 tons. However, considering basis and calendar spread can cover storage costs, the downside is limited. There will be more coal - based plant maintenance during the Spring Festival, and supply will decrease marginally. The short - term trend is upward, but the upside is limited. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse calendar spread during the rally [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Month Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 7482 | -34 | -0.45% | PX5 - 9 | 16 | 28 | -12 | | PTA Main | 5332 | -38 | -0.71% | PTA5 - 9 | -18 | 6 | -24 | | MEG Main | 3957 | -13 | -0.33% | MEG5 - 9 | -97 | -96 | -1 | | PF Main | 6720 | -28 | -0.41% | PF3 - 4 | -56 | -48 | -8 | | SC Main | 472.5 | 12.2 | 2.65% | SC2 - 3 | -7.8 | -2.1 | -5.7 | [2] Spot Market | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 921.33 | 923.5 | -2.17 | | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | 5250 | 5250 | 0 | | MEG Spot | 3837 | 3843 | -6 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 596 | 584.5 | 11.5 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 72.36 | 70 | 2.35 | [2] Spot Processing Margin | Processing Margin | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 357.42 | 339.67 | 17.75 | | PTA Processing Margin | 415.64 | 363.95 | 51.69 | | Short - Fiber Processing Margin | 120.64 | 142.01 | -21.37 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Margin | 211.39 | 199.35 | 12.03 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | -4.34 | -4.34 | 0 | [2] Fundamental Data - **PX**: Naphtha prices remained strong in the afternoon. PX prices were weak today. Two April spot deals were made at $924/ton CFR. The recent PX valuation is $921/ton CFR, down $3 from yesterday [3]. - **PTA**: There were no significant changes in PTA plants in mainland China this week. The PTA load on Thursday was 76.6%, and the operating rate was around 82.7% [3]. - **MEG**: As of January 29, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 74.38% (up 1.33% from the previous period), and the operating rate of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 81.79% (up 2.39% from the previous period). A 500,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Fujian restarted recently and is expected to produce products this weekend [3]. - **Polyester**: As the Spring Festival approaches, polyester plants have frequent changes. The overall polyester load has decreased. As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 84.7%. The operating rate of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable, at around 75% [5]. Trend Intensity - PX Trend Intensity: 1 - PTA Trend Intensity: 1 - MEG Trend Intensity: 1 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2. - 2 means most bearish, and 2 means most bullish [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for PX, PTA, and MEG are all "trending strongly" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX has a medium - term unilateral upward trend, with more pre - holiday corrections and a 3 - 5 reverse spread operation due to supply relaxation and a focus on the capital side, and the unilateral price remains strong due to downstream pre - spring demand [4] - PTA has a unilateral upward trend, with more pre - holiday corrections. Future supply and demand will be weak, leading to a stock - building situation. There is support around the 5100 - 5200 range, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [5] - MEG should be bought on dips and traded in the 3800 - 4200 range. Supply pressure is high, but the downside is limited, and the short - term trend is still strong [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the PX主力 was 7376, down 254 or 3.33%. The PX5 - 9 spread closed at 56, down 6 from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The closing price of the PTA主力 was 5258, down 180 or 3.31%. The PTA5 - 9 spread closed at 16, down 14 from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The closing price of the MEG主力 was 3938, down 56 or 1.40%. The MEG5 - 9 spread closed at - 92, up 5 from the previous day [2] - **PF**: The closing price of the PF主力 was 6662, down 164 or 2.40%. The PF3 - 4 spread closed at - 46, up 4 from the previous day [2] - **SC**: The closing price of the SC主力 was 446.7, down 10.6 or 2.32%. The SC2 - 3 spread closed at 8.3, up 12.6 from the previous day [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **PX**: The PX CFR China price was 902.67 dollars/ton, down 27 dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha price difference was 357.42 dollars/ton, up 17.75 dollars/ton from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The PTA East China price was 5220 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 415.64 yuan/ton, up 51.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The MEG spot price was 3827 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - **Naphtha**: The MOPJ naphtha price was 568.5 dollars/ton, down 4.75 dollars/ton from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil price difference was - 4.34 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day [2] - **Brent**: The Dated Brent price was 69.08 dollars/barrel, up 1.27 dollars/barrel from the previous day [2] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **PX**: An 800,000 - ton PX plant in South China is restarting and expected to produce products soon. The PX spot price dropped significantly on January 27, and the 2 - month MOPJ naphtha price was around 563 dollars/ton CFR [3] - **MEG**: From January 26 to February 1, the planned arrival quantity at the main ports was about 147,000 tons [3] - **Polyester**: On January 27, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of about 30%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 68% [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Medium - term unilateral trend is bullish, 3 - 5 reverse spread operation [9]. - PTA: Unilateral trend is bullish, 3 - 5 reverse spread operation [10]. - MEG: Buy on dips, operate within the range of 3800 - 4200 [10]. Core Views - The trading logic of PX is mainly on the capital side. Despite potential supply increase, due to low pre - holiday inventories of PX, PTA, and polyester and downstream pre - spring rigid demand, the unilateral price remains strong. The far - month price rises more during the price increase, forming a reverse spread pattern [9]. - Under the macro anti - deflation and anti - involution policies, the commodity market, especially the chemical sector with small previous gains, is over - allocated by funds. PTA is expected to have a supply - demand double - weak and inventory - accumulation situation, but its current low inventory supports the price [10]. - MEG has large supply pressure with increased port inventories. However, the basis and calendar spread can cover the storage cost, limiting the downside. Spring coal - based load maintenance increases and overseas geopolitical impacts are changeable, making the basis and calendar spread expected to be strong [10]. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market Data - PX主力昨日收盘价7630，涨跌4，涨跌幅0.05%，PX5 - 9月差昨日收盘价62，较前日涨18 [2]. - PTA主力昨日收盘价5438，涨跌 - 10，涨跌幅 - 0.18%，PTA5 - 9月差昨日收盘价30，较前日跌10 [2]. - MEG主力昨日收盘价3994，涨跌 - 3，涨跌幅 - 0.08%，MEG5 - 9月差昨日收盘价 - 97，较前日跌14 [2]. - PF主力昨日收盘价6826，涨跌44，涨跌幅0.65%，PF3 - 4月差昨日收盘价 - 50，较前日持平 [2]. - SC主力昨日收盘价457.3，涨跌15.4，涨跌幅3.48%，SC2 - 3月差昨日收盘价 - 4.3，较前日跌4.1 [2]. Spot Market Data - PX CFR中国昨日价格929.67美元/吨，较前日涨7美元 [2]. - PTA华东昨日价格5350元/吨，较前日涨63元 [2]. - MEG现货昨日价格3885元/吨，较前日涨93元 [2]. - 石脑油MOPJ昨日价格573.25美元/吨，较前日涨8美元 [2]. - Dated布伦特昨日价格68.27美元/桶，较前日涨2.48美元 [2]. Spot Processing Fee Data - PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格357.42美元/吨，较前日涨17.75美元 [2]. - PTA加工费昨日价格415.64元/吨，较前日涨51.69元 [2]. - 短纤加工费昨日价格120.64元/吨，较前日跌21.37元 [2]. - 瓶片加工费昨日价格211.39元/吨，较前日涨12.03元 [2]. - MOPJ石脑油 - 迪拜原油价差昨日价格 - 4.34美元/吨，较前日持平 [2]. PX Fundamental Information - 1月26日尾盘石脑油价格随原油回落，2月MOPJ估价约569美元/吨CFR；PX价格上涨，4月现货一单在933美元/吨成交，尾盘3月在926/929，4月在929/937商谈，3/4在 - 6/0商谈，收于930美元/吨CFR，较上周五涨7美元，为2024年8月31日以来最高 [4]. - PX生产利润率在330 - 360美元/吨之间，可能吸引地区生产商提高产量，但除中国外多数地区生产商未提高生产速度 [4][6]. - 截至1月23日当周，中国PX商品化生产率约89%，与上周变化不大，中化泉州80万吨PX生产设施1月28日重启 [6]. MEG Fundamental Information - 1月19 - 25日，张家港某主流库区MEG日均发货约7800吨，太仓两主流库区MEG日均发货约5500吨 [6]. - 1月26日华东部分主港地区MEG港口库存约85.8万吨，环比增加6.3万吨，其中张家港增加7.8万吨，太仓下降1.5万吨 [7]. - 西南一套36万吨/年、华东一套50万吨/年MEG装置重启，华南一套50万吨/年MEG装置提前停车检修 [7]. Polyester Fundamental Information - 周末江浙涤丝产销整体偏弱，两天平均产销估算在4成偏下，1月26日产销整体偏弱，至下午3点45分左右平均产销估算在5成左右 [7][8]. - 1月26日直纺涤短销售高低分化，平均产销57% [8]. - 萧山一套36万吨、福建63万吨、南通25万吨及16万吨聚酯装置停车检修 [8].