Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term volatile market rating for p - xylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), and monoethylene glycol (MEG) [1] Core Viewpoints - PX is in a short - term volatile market due to the conflict between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to go long on SC and short on PX, and go long on BZ and short on PX. Consider buying on dips [8] - PTA is in a cost - demand game. Don't chase the high, buy on dips, and maintain positive spreads when the 5 - 9 month spread is below 50 yuan/ton. It is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and pay attention to the long EB and short PTA hedge [8][9] - MEG is in a short - term high - level volatile market. Supply is decreasing, imports will shrink in April, and port inventory is expected to be depleted faster. The unilateral price is still strong, and maintain positive spreads for the 5 - 9 month spread [9] Summary by Related Contents Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 9700, 6684, 5218, 8246, and 740.6 respectively, with changes of - 140, - 84, - 141, - 96, and - 22.9, and percentage changes of - 1.42%, - 1.24%, - 2.63%, - 1.15%, and - 3.00% [1] - Spot: The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, MOPJ naphtha, and Dated Brent on the previous day were 1251.67 dollars/ton, 6660 yuan/ton, 5275 yuan/ton, 1207.5 dollars/ton, and 123.48 dollars/barrel respectively, with changes of - 24 dollars/ton, - 170 yuan/ton, - 154 yuan/ton, 1 dollar/ton, and 2.98 dollars/barrel [1] - Spot processing fees: The PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread on the previous day were 120.67 dollars/ton, 133.46 yuan/ton, - 133.31 yuan/ton, 570.09 yuan/ton, and - 4.34 dollars/ton respectively, with changes of - 14.5 dollars/ton, 11.12 yuan/ton, - 192 yuan/ton, - 75.54 yuan/ton, and 0 dollars/ton [1] Market Conditions - PX: On March 31, the PX price dropped. The PX - naphtha spread narrowed. The naphtha market was relatively strong in the short - term [1][4] - PTA: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in South China reduced its load to 60 - 70% [4] - MEG: Affected by the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the statistical period was extended to April 6. A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Henan was restarting [5] - Polyester: A 100,000 - ton polyester plant in Xiaoshan shut down for maintenance. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on March 31 were weak, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were also light [5] - Textile and clothing: From January to February 2026, online retail sales of goods and services were 3,254.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. Online retail sales of wearing goods increased by 18% [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX, PTA, and MEG are in a short - term volatile market, and their medium - term trends are still strong. The supply of MEG is tight, and its medium - term trend is also strong [2] - For PX, due to the contradiction between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand, the unilateral price is volatile and strong. It is recommended to go long on SC and short on PX, and go long on BZ and short on PX. When the 5 - 9 spread is below 100 yuan/ton, consider positive arbitrage [8] - For PTA, with the game between cost and demand, it is not advisable to chase high prices. Instead, buy on dips. The unilateral price is volatile and strong. When the 5 - 9 spread is below 50 yuan/ton, maintain positive arbitrage. It is recommended to go long on EB and short on PTA [9] - For MEG, due to the direct lack of supply, the trend is relatively strong. The unilateral price is still strong, and the 5 - 9 spread maintains positive arbitrage [9] Summary by Related Catalogs PX - **Price Information**: The PX futures' yesterday's closing price was 9840, with a decline of 76 and a drop - rate of 0.77%. The 5 - 9 spread's yesterday's closing price was 242, up 32 from the previous day. The PX CFR China's yesterday's price was 1275.67 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread's yesterday's price was 120.67, down 14.5 from the previous day [4] - **Device Conditions**: A 100 - million - ton PX device in East China is expected to stop for maintenance tomorrow as planned and restart in early May. Another 70 - million - ton PX device's maintenance plan has been postponed, and the specific time is to be followed up [5] - **Market Situation**: The naphtha price rose at the end of the session. On March 30, the PX price increased, with three May Asian spot orders成交 at 1281, 1282, and 1282 respectively. The PX valuation on March 30 was 1276 dollars/ton, up 13 dollars from last Friday [4] PTA - **Price Information**: The PTA futures' yesterday's closing price was 6768, with a decline of 108 and a drop - rate of 1.57%. The 5 - 9 spread's yesterday's closing price was 88, down 32 from the previous day. The PTA's East China spot price was 6830 yuan/ton yesterday, up 100 yuan from the previous day. The PTA processing fee's yesterday's price was 133.46, up 11.12 from the previous day [4] - **Device Conditions**: A 70 - million - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China restarted last weekend [5] - **Market Situation**: The PTA supply is sufficient, with the operating rate rising to around 82%. The downstream polyester operating rate has dropped to 86.9%. In the short term, the oversupply will affect the April contract and the early - April trend. However, in April, the PTA inventory will decline rapidly due to the reduction of PX supply [9] MEG - **Price Information**: The MEG futures' yesterday's closing price was 5359, with an increase of 80 and a rise - rate of 1.52%. The 5 - 9 spread's yesterday's closing price was 125, down 21 from the previous day. The MEG spot price was 5429 yesterday, up 259 from the previous day [4] - **Device Conditions**: On March 30, the MEG port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 1.075 billion tons, up 360,000 tons from the previous period. A 60 - million - ton unit of a 1.8 - billion - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene - glycol device in Shaanxi restarted and produced normally recently, and the second 60 - million - ton unit is planned to stop for maintenance on April 15 for about 20 days [5][6] - **Market Situation**: The ethylene - glycol supply will decrease significantly in April. The import volume will shrink, and the export from China will increase. The domestic ethylene - glycol device operating rate has dropped from 80% before the holiday to around 66%, and the coal - based devices are in the spring - maintenance stage, so the port inventory is expected to be depleted faster [9] Polyester - **Device Conditions**: The maintenance plan of a 30 - million - ton polyester device in a factory in Fujian was cancelled [6] - **Market Situation**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on March 30 were generally weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 20% by 4 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories were also weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 43% by 3 pm. However, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were strong over the weekend, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 200% [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term market for p - xylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), and monoethylene glycol (MEG) is a volatile market, and the medium - term is still bullish [1][9][10] Core Viewpoints - For PX, with the intraday correction of crude oil, PX follows suit. In the short - term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium - term, it is still bullish. One should not chase high prices but buy on dips. The supply is affected by the unplanned maintenance of a 100 - million - ton PX device in South Korea, and the demand side shows that some PTA plants reduce their loads while polyester profits expand smoothly. The aromatics blending oil economy recovers. The strategy suggests focusing on the 9000 - 12000 range and going long on PX and short on PTA [9] - For PTA, with the intraday correction of crude oil and PX, it is a short - term volatile market and medium - term bullish. One should not chase high prices but buy on dips. The supply side sees some PTA plants reducing their loads, and on the demand side, the坯布 inventory is continuously decreasing, but downstream orders are cautious. The polyester load has recovered to 87.2%, and the load estimates for March and April are both reduced by 2.5%. The profit transmission is smooth. The 05 - contract processing fee on the futures market has dropped to 350 yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee fluctuates greatly [9] - For MEG, it is a short - term volatile market and medium - term bullish. One should not chase high prices. The supply side has a significant reduction in the load of many naphtha cracking units, and the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has dropped from 80% to 66%. The overall supply has decreased by more than 20%. On the demand side, the坯布 inventory is continuously decreasing, but downstream orders are cautious due to high - level fluctuations and chaotic quotes of raw materials. The polyester load has recovered to 87.2%, and the average monthly load estimates for March and April are both reduced by 2.5%, and the polyester load will stabilize later. The profits of multiple processes such as coal - based and oil - based are differentiated, and the spot and futures prices of ethylene glycol strengthen with the cost [10][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures contracts yesterday were 10180, 6982, 4897, 8368, and 770.5 respectively, with price increases of 162, 48, 168, 92, and 19.7, and price increase rates of 1.62%, 0.69%, 3.55%, 1.11%, and 2.62% respectively [2] - The month - spread closing prices of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 yesterday were 578, 292, 82, - 166, and - 2.5 respectively, with price increases of 42, 4, 17, 22, and - 2 respectively [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent yesterday were 1294.67 dollars/ton, 6960 yuan/ton, 4855 yuan/ton, 1052.5 dollars/ton, and 103.69 dollars/barrel respectively, with price increases of 21 dollars/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 183 yuan/ton, - 7.25 dollars/ton, and 0.23 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - The spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread yesterday were 214.58, 280.7, 5.4, 1022.41, and - 4.34 respectively, with price changes of - 113.5, 36.78, 15.57, 515.44, and 0 respectively [2] Fundamental Data - PX: The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session, and the current estimated price of April MOPJ is 949 dollars/ton CFR. On March 16, the PX price rose, and a May Asian spot was traded at 1291. The Asian xylene price rose continuously on March 16, following the rise of the Chinese futures market. A 100 - million - ton PX device in South Korea is planned to be shut down for maintenance at the end of this month, and the restart time is to be determined [3][5] - PTA: A 4.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China has recently reduced its load to 50% from the previous 80%, and a 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China has currently reduced its load to 90% [5] - MEG: A 400,000 - ton/year MEG device in Iran has been restarted, but the shipping plan is not clear; another 445,000 - ton/year MEG device in Iran is planned to resume production within this week. A 400,000 - ton/year syngas - based ethylene glycol device in Inner Mongolia is planned to restart around the second quarter of this year [6] - Polyester: A 200,000 - ton polyester device in Shaoxing started shutdown maintenance on the 15th. On March 16, the sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 47% by around 3:00 pm. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on March 16 was still light, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 20% by around 3:30 pm. The weekend sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was generally light, with an average sales - to - production ratio of just over 10% in two days [6][7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [8]

Report Overview - Report Date: March 16, 2026 [1] - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES DAILY REPORT - How Will the Chemical Market Evolve After the Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz?" [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, normal oil trade has been substantially disrupted, leading to a significant reduction in oil supply, soaring freight rates, and strong short - term oil prices. PX and PTA may have independent upward space, while MEG production has sharply decreased. In operation, it is advisable to use interval trading and avoid unilateral chasing [3][4] - For stock index futures, if there is a rally next Monday, consider reducing positions appropriately [6] - For different commodities, different technical outlooks are provided, including gold, iron ore, glass, methanol, and pulp [11][13][16] Summary by Related Catalogs Hotspot Focus - Strait of Hormuz Disruption: The normal oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz has been substantially blocked, with the oil flow dropping by about 18 million barrels per day, leaving only 10% of the normal level. There are 225 stranded oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, accounting for 9% of the global shipping capacity. The spot freight rate for VLCC from the Middle East to China has exceeded $500,000 per day, reaching a new high since 2019 [3] - Oil Production Cuts and Strategic Reserves: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait have jointly cut production by 6.7 million barrels per day, accounting for 6% of the global supply. Although the IEA and the US plan to release strategic reserves, the daily increase in supply is only about 1.4 million barrels, far from meeting the gap of over 16 million barrels per day. Short - term oil prices are expected to remain strong, with WTI possibly rebounding above $100 per barrel [3] - PX and PTA: The market focus has shifted from "cost increase" to "substantial supply disruption". Asian refineries have reduced their operations, and PX and PTA may break away from the crude oil pricing anchor and have independent upward space [4] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Middle East tensions have led to the shutdown of most ethylene glycol plants in Iran and 20% of the capacity in Saudi Arabia. In China, due to high oil prices and raw material shortages, the operating rate has dropped to 66.77%, and production has decreased by about 1.7 million tons [4] - Operation Suggestions: Avoid unilateral chasing and killing. Use interval trading, with Brent focusing on the $80 - 100 per barrel range and SC crude oil on the 600 - 800 yuan per barrel range. Set stop - losses and avoid overnight positions [4] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The market showed a trend of rising and then falling today. The Shanghai Composite Index led the decline in the afternoon. Technically, it is oversold at the 5 - minute level, with a repair expected on Monday morning. If there is a rally next Monday, consider reducing positions appropriately [6][7] - Gold: The daily - level red - green line has turned to a volatile pattern. After a small gap - up opening, the price fluctuated downwards throughout the day. It is recommended to adopt a volatile trading strategy [11] - Iron Ore: The supply from Australia and Brazil is normal, and there is an expectation of loose supply in the medium - to - long term. The demand from steel mills is expected to recover after the holiday, but it still takes time. Technically, the commodity sentiment is high, and it is advisable to maintain a bullish view [13][14] - Glass: The daily melting volume has decreased, and the inventory has slightly decreased. In the short term, it is affected by the overall commodity sentiment. Technically, if it breaks through the previous high, the upward space will be further opened [16][17] - Methanol: Iran is a major methanol producer and exporter. Affected by Middle East events, methanol supply has decreased significantly, and the port inventory has decreased by 130,700 tons this week [19] - Pulp: Most pulp and paper plants have returned to normal production, with a few under maintenance. The domestic port inventory is increasing. The downstream paper mills' operating rate is expected to continue to rise. Due to cost pressure, there is an expectation of price increases for cultural paper and white cardboard, which may support the pulp price [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The unilateral trend of p-xylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), and monoethylene glycol (MEG) remains strong. The trend intensity of PX and PTA is rated 2 (most bullish), while that of MEG is 1 (bullish) [1][6]. - PX: The supply side has seen short - stops and reduced loads at domestic plants, and there will likely be a decline in imports due to overseas force majeure. Cost support is strong as crude oil prices rise above $100 per barrel. PX is expected to accelerate destocking from April to May [6]. - PTA: The price of its raw material PX has risen strongly, increasing PTA's valuation. Supply reduction of raw materials has led to PTA plant cut - backs, and with the continuous recovery of polyester demand, PTA will enter a destocking phase from April to May [6]. - MEG: Domestic cracking units have cut production, leading to a significant drop in the ethylene glycol operating rate. The downstream polyester operating rate has continued to rise, and MEG has started to accelerate destocking this week. However, spot trading remains weak [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Data | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Month - Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | Month - Spread (Change) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 10218 | 686 | 7.20% | 736 | 174 | | PTA Main | 6998 | 338 | 5.08% | 392 | 26 | | MEG Main | 4653 | 76 | 1.66% | 117 | - 26 | | PF Main | 8322 | 332 | 4.16% | - 166 | 22 | | SC Main | 722.3 | 60.3 | 9.11% | 9.1 | 3.7 | [2] Spot Market Data | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 1305.33 | 1216.33 | 89 | | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | 7040 | 6320 | 720 | | MEG Spot | 4733 | 4475 | 258 | | Naphtha MOPJ ($/ton) | 977.25 | 875.25 | 102 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 100.66 | 91.46 | 9.2 | [2] Spot Processing Fee Data | Spot Processing Fee | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 297.3 | 280.3 | 17 | | PTA Processing Fee | 274.69 | 310.14 | - 35.45 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 30.98 | - 8.22 | 39.2 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | 207.78 | 233.18 | - 25.39 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 4.34 | - 4.34 | 0 | [2] Fundamental Data of PX, PTA, and MEG - **PX**: ICE Brent futures rose by $7.86 per barrel, and Platts - assessed naphtha C + F Japan rose by $102 per ton. Due to the Middle - East conflict and ship attacks in the Persian Gulf, crude oil futures rose. The operating rate of PX in China decreased by 5.5% week - on - week to 84.7%, and the Asian PX operating rate was 76.9% [3][4]. - **PTA**: This week, some PTA plants reduced their loads, and the domestic PTA load was adjusted to 80.1%. An East - China 360 - million - ton PTA plant started to reduce its load on March 12, and the recovery time is undetermined [4]. - **MEG**: As of March 12, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 66.77% (down 7.18% from the previous period), and a 40 - million - ton/year synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol plant in Shaanxi stopped for maintenance on March 12, expected to last about 40 days [5]. - **Polyester**: As of this Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 87.2%. The operating load of the polyester industrial yarn industry remained stable at around 74%. A 25 - million - ton polyester plant in Tongxiang plans to restart tomorrow, while a 20 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip plant in East China advanced its shutdown for maintenance by one week [5]. - **Sales of Polyester Products**: On March 12, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were still weak, with an average sales rate of 10 - 20%. The average sales rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber plants was 54% [5][6].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - The initial price increase of some chemicals was driven by the premium effect of geopolitical tensions, but as the market evolved, the strength of the fundamentals of each variety has become the decisive factor for the price increase. The market shows obvious differentiation characteristics. The price increase of the varieties with tight supply - demand patterns is relatively smooth, while the increase of those with weak supply - demand patterns is weak. At present, a defensive strategy should be adopted, and it is necessary to focus on the performance of varieties with tight and loose supply - demand patterns in the future [23][24][25] Summary by Directory 1. Changes in the Price Transmission Path of Chemical Products (1) Geopolitical Premium Driving Chemical Prices Up in the Early Stage - Last week, the market rise was mainly driven by the geopolitical event of the US - Iran conflict, which strengthened the market's expectation of a contraction in crude oil supply. This week, the price quickly corrected due to the cooling of market sentiment, profit - taking by some long - positions, and the exchange's increase in margin requirements [4] - The impact of price fluctuations shows obvious echelon differentiation. The first echelon includes crude oil, methanol, and LPG; the second echelon includes ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, and polypropylene; the third echelon includes PX, pure benzene, styrene, and ethylene glycol; the fourth echelon has relatively weak price linkage [5] (2) Later Gradually Turning to the Promotion of the Own Fundamental - The market driving logic is extending from simple cost transmission to supply - chain transmission, and the weight of fundamentals is gradually increasing. The first - echelon varieties are directly affected by supply shocks; the second - echelon ones are driven by both cost and supply; the third - echelon ones are demand - driven [11] 2. Analysis of Some Chemical Products (1) PX/PTA - The core logic of PX price increase has changed from cost increase to "real supply shock". The PX supply shock has become a reality, and the market's pricing of near - term supply tightness has been strengthened. PTA shows a game between "cost - driven" and "weak fundamentals". PX is the strongest link in the industrial chain, while PTA's rise depends more on cost promotion [14][15] (2) Pure Benzene/Styrene - Short - term geopolitical events have reconstructed the cost bottom line of the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains. Styrene performs relatively strongly due to its better inventory structure. The supply of pure benzene in the Asian market is expected to be tight, and its future trend will be mainly affected by external factors. Styrene has strong future demand expectations, but there are also risks [17][18] (3) Methanol - The driving factor of methanol comes from the Middle East geopolitical situation, which directly affects supply expectations. The inventory has decreased, but in the long - term, the supply is expected to be loose once the geopolitical risk eases [19] (4) Plastics (PP, PE, PVC) - The three plastics show a differentiated market. PP is a cost - driven increase but has a "market without transactions" risk. PE is in a dilemma between cost and supply - demand. PVC is the weakest, and its price center may move down [20] 3. Overall Strategy for the Chemical Sector - At present, a defensive strategy should be adopted, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the next observation period, focus on the follow - up performance of varieties with tight and loose supply - demand patterns [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PX is expected to experience a short - term callback and engage in reverse calendar spread trading. PTA will follow the cost - side callback in the short term and focus on reverse calendar spread trading at high levels. MEG should close long positions around 4200 - 4300, with support below 4000. The 5 - 9 calendar spread long positions should be closed. [1][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price and Fluctuation - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 8902, 6200, 4305, 7620, and 666.3 respectively, with price drops of - 126, - 116, - 292, - 160, and - 105.5 and percentage drops of - 1.40%, - 1.84%, - 6.35%, - 2.06%, and - 13.67% respectively. The month - spreads of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 also changed, with price changes of 66, 54, - 100, - 40, and - 5.2 respectively. [2] - **Spot**: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent on the previous day were 1157.33 dollars/ton, 6360 yuan/ton, 4188 yuan/ton, 841.5 dollars/ton, and 87.94 dollars/barrel respectively, with price drops of - 188.34 dollars/ton, - 425 yuan/ton, - 622 yuan/ton, - 150 dollars/ton, and - 14.9 dollars/barrel respectively. [2] - **Spot processing fees**: The spot processing fees such as PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread also changed. For example, the PX - naphtha spread increased by 17 dollars/ton, while the PTA processing fee decreased by 35.45 yuan/ton. [2] Market Conditions - On March 10, Asian xylene prices fell during the trading session. The PX market lost upstream support and partially reversed the previous day's gains. The upstream ICE Brent futures and Platts - evaluated naphtha C + F Japan index also declined. [3] - In the Asian trading session on the afternoon of March 10, crude oil futures fell as world leaders announced measures to ease supply risks. PTA and PX futures also closed lower than the previous trading day. Some market participants adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and a trader expected the reverse trading structure to continue. [4] Supply - side Changes - For PX, the supply reduction is limited. Ningbo Daxie had a short - term shutdown, and the shipping speed of Japan's ENEOS slowed down. [5] - For MEG, a 1.8 - million - ton/year synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol plant in Shaanxi started partial capacity maintenance today, expected to last about 3 weeks. A 620,000 - ton/year ethylene - glycol plant in Kuwait has recently shut down, and the restart time will be followed up. [4][5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The trends of p-xylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), and monoethylene glycol (MEG) continue to be strong due to ongoing geopolitical impacts [1]. - PX: The unilateral trend is strong, and the price center may continue to rise. Reduce the 5 - 9 month spread, hold the basis positive spread, and go long on PX and short on polyester staple fiber (PF). The cost support for PX remains strong, and both domestic supply and imports are expected to decline significantly [8]. - PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA. The unilateral trend is strong. Reduce the 5 - 9 month spread and hold the basis positive spread. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the cost - end of crude oil and PX is expected to rise. PTA is in general supply - demand balance, and inventory reduction will start from April [9]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is strong. Continue to hold the MEG5 - 9 positive spread. The domestic load of ethylene glycol has significantly declined, and the import volume is expected to decrease [9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX - **Price and Spread**: On March 6, the PX price was 1079.17 dollars/ton, up 24.5 dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 280.3 dollars/ton, up 28.3 dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX2605 futures contract closed at 8670 yuan/ton, up 326 yuan/ton from the previous closing price [2][5]. - **Market Situation**: The naphtha price rebounded at the end of the session. There was no negotiation for April physical goods on March 6, and the negotiation price for May was between 1075.5/1090 dollars/ton, with no transactions. The Asian p - xylene price continued to rise on March 6 due to the escalation of the Middle - East conflict [2][3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX operating rate in Asia has slightly declined to 83% but remains at a high level. The downstream PTA supply is generally loose. The PX operating rate in China on March 5 was 84%, lower than 89% on February 27 [5][8]. PTA - **Price and Spread**: The PTA2605 futures contract closed at 6070 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous closing price. The PTA processing fee was 310.14 yuan/ton, up 72.74 yuan/ton from the previous day [2][5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA operating rate has continued to rise to 81% (+4.4%), and the polyester operating rate has increased to 84.1% (+4.6%). PTA is in general supply - demand balance, and inventory reduction will start from April [9]. MEG - **Price and Spread**: The MEG futures contract closed at 4377 yuan/ton, up 193 yuan/ton from the previous closing price. The MEG5 - 9 spread was 60, up 36 from the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China has stopped production, and the restart time is undetermined. A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Anhui plans to conduct two - line rotational maintenance starting from April for over a month. The domestic ethylene glycol load has dropped to 74.1% (-4.8%), and the import volume is expected to decrease [6][9][10]. Polyester - **Production Adjustment**: A direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Jiangsu has reduced the production of virgin hollow staple fiber by 70 tons/day starting from March 6 for one month. A 300,000 - ton polyester new plant in Jiaxing is heating up and is equipped to produce polyester dull filament [7]. - **Sales Situation**: On March 6, the overall sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of slightly over 30% by 4 pm. The sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 70% by 3 pm [7].

1. Report's Investment Ratings for the Industry - PX: High-level volatile market, with a strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [1] - PTA: High-level volatile market [1] - MEG: High-level volatile market [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Geopolitical conflicts have raised costs. Without a significant further increase in oil prices, some long positions around 8200 - 8300 can be reduced, and the May - September spread can be reduced on rallies. In the medium term, the trend remains strong with increasing volatility, so position control is necessary. PX imports and domestic production cuts will gradually materialize in the second quarter. If the Iran issue persists for more than two weeks, the PX valuation may rise further. The strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA can be continued [7] - PTA: Some long positions around 5800 can be reduced, and the May - September positive spread can be reduced. The PTA operating rate has increased instead of decreased, and the spot basis has reacted slowly. During the current off - season of demand, the May - September positive spread can be exited. The strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA should be continued [8] - MEG: Long positions around 4200 - 4300 can be exited, and there is still support below 4000. The May - September positive spread can be exited. The navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is still poor, which will interfere with ethylene glycol imports. The overall supply of ethylene glycol has tightened, supporting its valuation [9] 3. Summary by Related Contents PX - **Price and Market Structure**: On March 5, the PX price rose, with a May Asian spot trading at 1052. The PX valuation on March 5 was 1055 dollars/ton, up 28 dollars from March 4. The market structure strengthened, with the April/May physical spread widening from 5.50 dollars/metric ton to 8 dollars/ton [3][5] - **Operating Rate**: As of Thursday this week, the domestic PX plant operating rate was 90.4%, and the Asian PX operating rate was 83.2%. This week, the domestic PX plant operating load dropped to around 90%, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. South Korean GS 550,000 - ton and Soil 770,000 - ton plants are under maintenance as planned [3][7] - **Upstream Situation**: The ICE Brent futures contract rose 35 cents/dollar to 84.25 dollars/dollar on the trading day, while the Platts - assessed naphtha C + F Japan index fell 2.125 dollars/ton to 774.375 dollars/ton [3] PTA - **Price**: The PTA2605 contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed at 5820 yuan/ton, up 126 yuan/ton from the previous day [5] - **Operating Rate**: This week, some PTA plants had changes, such as Yisheng New Materials ramping up to full capacity, some plants restarting, and some undergoing maintenance. As of Thursday, the domestic PTA load was adjusted to 81% [6] MEG - **Price**: The MEG spot price was 4170 yuan/ton, up 196 yuan from the previous day [2] - **Operating Rate**: As of March 5, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 74.14% (a 4.88% decrease from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 83.03% (a 1.00% decrease from the previous period). Two South Korean MEG plants are under planned maintenance, and another is planning to reduce its load to around 70% [6] Polyester - **Operating Rate**: This week, the operating load of the polyester filament industry has increased. As of now, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester filaments is around 74%. As of Thursday this week, the polyester load in mainland China is around 83.5%. There is still a possibility of multiple plants restarting in the future, and the polyester load will continue to increase [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific trading strategies are suggested for PX, PTA, and MEG [5][6] Core Viewpoints - The markets of PX, PTA, and MEG are in a high - level volatile state. For PX, in the short - term, with geopolitical conflicts raising costs but no significant further increase in oil prices, it is recommended to exit long positions around 8200 - 8300 and reduce positions in the 5 - 9 month spread on rallies. In the medium - term, supply reduction will gradually materialize due to multiple PX device overhauls. The strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA can be continued. For PTA, the valuation has been restored, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the market's pull - back after a rally. Long positions should be exited around 5700 - 5800, and the 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage should be exited. The strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA should be continued. For MEG, long positions should be exited around 4200 - 4300, and there is support below 4000. The 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage should be exited. The supply of MEG is tightening, which supports its valuation [5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The PX2605 contract closed at 8088 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan/ton from the previous close, with a daily increase of 1.30%. The 5 - 9 month spread was 190, up 92 from the previous day [1][3] - **PTA**: The PTA2605 contract closed at 5694 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton from the previous close, with a daily increase of 1.53%. The 5 - 9 month spread was 98, up 56 from the previous day [1][3] - **MEG**: The MEG main contract closed at 4078 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton from the previous close, with a daily increase of 1.32%. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 7, up 41 from the previous day [1] - **PF**: The PF main contract closed at 7158 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous close, with a daily increase of 1.13%. The 3 - 4 month spread was - 148, up 106 from the previous day [1] - **SC**: The SC main contract closed at 641.1 yuan/ton, up 68.8 yuan/ton from the previous close, with a daily increase of 12.02%. The 2 - 3 month spread was 5.2, up 16.9 from the previous day [1] Spot Market - **PX**: The CFR China price was 1026.83 US dollars/ton, up 7.66 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 295.04 US dollars/ton, down 2.13 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - **PTA**: The spot price in East China was 5605 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. The processing fee was 285.43 yuan/ton, down 90.45 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **MEG**: The spot price was 3974 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 2026.2.26 - 2026.3.4 MEG monthly settlement reference price was 3791 yuan/ton; the 2026.3.1 - 2026.3.4 MEG monthly average price was 3897.67 yuan/ton [1][4] - **Naphtha**: The MOPJ price was 776.5 US dollars/ton, up 39.25 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Brent**: The Dated Brent price was 81.16 US dollars/barrel, down 3.71 US dollars/barrel from the previous day [1] Device and Production - A 770,000 - ton PX device in South Korea started scheduled maintenance on March 4 and is expected to restart in late April [1] - A 260,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber device in Suzhou started heating up for restart today and is expected to produce products next week. A 250,000 - ton polyester device in Nantong has restarted and produced products this week. A 400,000 - ton polyester device in Shaoxing has delayed its start - up due to a melt valve failure and is expected to start up this weekend or early next week [4] Market Sales - On March 4, the overall sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined, with an estimated average sales rate of around 40% by 4 pm. The sales rates of several factories were 60%, 100%, 0%, 25%, 75%, 40%, 40%, 0%, 10%, 100%, 0%, 40%, 30%, 30%, 60%, 80%, 50%, 80% respectively [5] - On March 4, the sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were average, with an average sales rate of 52% by 3 pm. The sales rates of some factories were 120%, 40%, 50%, 0%, 60%, 20%, 35%, 80%, 70% respectively [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [5]