Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX is in a short - term pressure with sufficient spot supply and will experience a high - level sideways market [1] - PTA will be in a high - level sideways market [1] - MEG has limited upside space and still faces pressure in the medium term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Futures**: PX主力昨日收盘价7286，跌50，跌幅 - 0.68%；PTA主力昨日收盘价5150，涨跌0，涨跌幅0.00%；MEG主力昨日收盘价3879，涨41，涨幅1.07%；PF主力昨日收盘价6544，涨12，涨幅0.18%；SC主力昨日收盘价416.3，跌11.9，跌幅 - 2.78% [2] - **Spot**: PX CFR中国昨日价格899.67美元/吨，跌3；PTA华东昨日价格5095元/吨，涨15；MEG现货昨日价格3713元/吨，涨33；石脑油MOPJ昨日价格532.75美元/吨，跌1.5；Dated布伦特昨日价格61.89美元/桶，跌1.02 [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格363.88，涨7.92；PTA加工费昨日价格361.63，涨6.66；短纤加工费昨日价格120.64，跌21.37；瓶片加工费昨日价格43.68，跌25.41；MOPJ石脑油 - 迪拜原油价差昨日价格 - 4.34，涨跌0 [2] Market Dynamics - **Crude Oil**: The situation between the US and Venezuela has not intensified, and the market expects Venezuela's production to increase in the long - term, leading to a decline in international oil prices. On January 7, during the Asian trading session, oil prices fell after Trump said Venezuela would supply 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US [3] - **PX**: In the physical market of PX, especially for February arrivals, there has been little improvement in the past few days. The floating price is weak, mainly due to the expected lack of buying interest during the Chinese Lunar New Year. The floating price for February arrivals is at a discount of about $3 per ton, and the discount for March is shallower [5] - **Polyester**: The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers are highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 74% as of 3:00 pm. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 50% as of 3:30 pm [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [6] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: The future supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil is sufficient, which discounts the aromatics blending oil expectation for the 05 contract. The increase in near - end PX warehouse receipts restricts the performance of near - month contracts. The PXN spread has reached $366 per ton, and enterprises' hedging willingness has increased significantly. The PX industry has weakened, while the capital market has a strong overall expectation for the commodity market [7] - **PTA**: The cost is slightly weak, with a short - term correction and a high - level sideways market. The processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk has risen to over 300 yuan/ton, which is slightly high. The restart of some devices will increase the operating rate, and the overall operating rate will be maintained at about 78%. Although polyester production has decreased slightly, PTA is still in the process of destocking [7] - **MEG**: The medium - term trend is still weak, and a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread is recommended. Although the coal - chemical products were strong due to the coal sector's movement, the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is still high, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand from polyester is weakening, and the situation of oversupply cannot be changed in the medium term [8]

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 对二甲苯：短期高位震荡市 PTA：高位震荡市 MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7336 | 5150 | 3838 | 6532 | 428.2 | | 涨跌 | 126 | 104 | 106 | 70 | 6.5 | | 涨跌幅 | 1.75% | 2.06% | 2.84% | 1.08% | 1.54% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | 112 | 90 | -86 | -54 | -0.7 | | 前日收盘价 | 122 | 90 | -90 | -70 | 1.5 | | 涨跌 | -12 | 0 | 4 | 16 | -2.2 | | 现货 ...

化工板块今日（1月6日）持续猛攻！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘拉升后持续高位震荡，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到3.83%，截至发 稿，涨3.15%。 如何把握化工板块反弹机遇？借道化工ETF（516020）布局效率或更高。公开资料显示，化工ETF（516020）跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，全面覆盖化 工各个细分领域。其中近5成仓位集中于大市值龙头股，包括万华化学、盐湖股份等，分享强者恒强投资机遇；其余5成仓位兼顾布局磷肥及磷化工、氟化 工、氮肥等细分领域龙头股，全面把握化工板块投资机会。场外投资者亦可通过化工ETF联接基金（A类012537/C类012538）布局化工板块。 来源：沪深交易所等，截至2026.1.6。 风险提示：化工ETF被动跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，该指数基日为2004.12.31，发布于2012.4.11。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其 回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。文中提及个股仅为指数成份股客观展示列举，不作为任何个股推荐，不代表基金管理人和基金投资方向。任何在本文出 现的信息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均 ...

化工板块今日（1月6日）持续猛攻！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘拉升后持续高位 震荡，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到3.83%，截至发稿，涨3.15%。 成份股方面，石化、磷化工、氯碱等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，恒力石化飙涨超8%，兴发集 团、凯赛生物、君正集团涨超7%，桐昆股份、鲁西化工、万华化学等多股涨超6%。 | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 · | F9 盘前盘后 露加 九转 面线 工具 份 (2) > | 4. TETF O | 516020 | 516020(化工ETF) 13:38 价 0.916 激表 0.028(3.15%) 均价 0.906 威交盘 9149 IOPV 0.9151 2-1.83% | D | 0.976 | +0.028 +3.15% | 0.922 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 05 日 对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市 PTA：成本支撑，高位震荡市 MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7260 | 5110 | 3803 | 6514 | 432.2 | | 涨跌 | -56 | -34 | -44 | -50 | -3.9 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.77% | -0.66% | -1.14% | -0.76% | -0.89% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -36 | -44 | -194 | -54 | -1.7 | | 前日收盘价 | -28 | -36 | -187 | -70 | -0.6 | | 涨跌 | -8 | -8 | ...

PX和PTA强预期修复利润， 乙二醇弱基本面下震荡筑底 聚酯月报 2026/01/04 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 从业资格号：F03136381 徐绍祖（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 PTA基本面 02 期现市场 05 MEG基本面 ◆ 行情回顾：上月价格大幅上涨，截至12月30日，05合约收盘价5152元，月同比上涨400元；华东现货价格5100元，同比上涨380元。基差和价 差方面，截至12月30日，基差-50元，月同比下跌12元；5-9价差94元，同比上涨34元。 ◆ 供应端：月底PTA负荷72.5%，月环比下降1.2%。十二月检修装置有所增加，整体负荷低于十一月。一月检修量预期仍然较多，平均负荷持稳。 ◆ 需求端：月底聚酯负荷90.4%，同比下降1.1%，其中长丝负荷89.2%，下降5.2%；短纤负荷96.2%，同比下降1.3%；甁片负荷73.4%，上升1.2%。 涤纶方面，库存压力较低，利润较差，利润压力叠加淡季来临，预期负荷将持续下降；甁片库存及利润偏稳定 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：成本驱动偏强 供应 国产供应端福佳大化100万吨装置重启，印度GAIL采购中东PX货源，为3-4月开车做准备。国内PX开工在88%。 需求 PTA国产装置方面，盘面05合约加工费上涨至300+元/吨，略显偏高，新凤鸣1期250万吨、中泰化学120万吨装置重启，开工率预计回升，未 来关注逸盛新材料360万吨检修计划，总体开工率维持在71%左右。 观点 成本支撑偏强，正套持有。1月3日，美国对委内瑞拉展开空袭并成功抓获总统马杜拉，市场预计该地原油出口短期或下滑30-60万桶/日，油价 在此背景下短线预计冲高，对PX形成估值上的支撑。 估值 PXN357美元/吨，石脑油负反馈，PXN持续扩大。PX-MX韩国FOB价差149美金/吨（-8），美国PX-MX价147美金/吨（+14），山东PX- MX价1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level volatile market [1][5] - PTA: High-level volatile market [1][6] - MEG: Limited upside space and medium-term pressure [1][7] 2. Core Views - PX is expected to maintain a high-level volatile market with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and attention should be paid to position management before the holiday [5] - PTA will also stay in a high-level volatile market. Supply is rising while demand decline is limited. It maintains inventory reduction, which is beneficial for the performance of monthly spreads and basis [6] - MEG's port inventory is accumulating again and the trend remains weak. Although the inventory accumulation expectation has marginally improved, it is mainly for range trading [7] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Data**: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures had different closing prices, price changes, and price change rates on the previous day. For example, PX futures closed at 7316 with a price increase of 46 and a rate of 0.63% [2] - **Monthly Spread Data**: The monthly spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC also had price changes compared to the previous day. For instance, the PX1 - 5 monthly spread closed at -28, up 38 from the previous day [2] - **Spot Data**: PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, etc. had price changes. PX CFR China rose from 892.33 to 894.33 dollars/ton [2] - **Spot Processing Fee Data**: The processing fees of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, etc. also changed. The PX - naphtha spread increased by 16 dollars/ton [2] Market Dynamics - PX: Naphtha prices rose at the end of the session. PX prices increased, with three March Asian spot transactions at 895, 895, and 894 dollars/ton. The PX valuation was 894 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars from the previous day [3] - MEG: A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi restarted recently but has not produced yet. The planned arrival quantity at major ports from December 29 to January 4 is about 107,000 tons [3] - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an estimated average sales rate of 30 - 40% by 4 pm. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 55% by 3 pm [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral view [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: It is in a high - level volatile market. Supply is marginally looser with some domestic and overseas device changes. Demand is decreasing as PTA device operating rate drops. Future 1 - 2 months' maintenance plans may expand, and attention should be paid to position management before the holiday [5] - **PTA**: It is in a high - level volatile market. Supply is increasing with some device restarts. Demand decline is limited, and it maintains inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to subsequent production reduction plans and position management before the holiday [6] - **MEG**: The port inventory is accumulating, and the trend is weak. Supply reduction is only in the expected stage, and demand is decreasing. Although the inventory accumulation expectation has marginally improved, it is mainly for range trading [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The refining profit is expected to recover, with sulfur providing incremental performance [1] - The supply-demand relationship for PX continues to improve, and profitability in the polyester segment is likely to recover [2] - The company benefits from the increase in gasoline and diesel crack spreads due to overseas refinery disruptions [3] - Significant increases in sulfur prices provide profit elasticity for the company [4] - The company is positioned for substantial profit recovery from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 1.38 billion, 2.27 billion, and 2.57 billion yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading private refining and chemical enterprise in China, with a processing capacity of 40 million tons of crude oil and significant production capabilities in PX and PTA [1][18] - The company has a diversified product range, including high-end materials and new energy products, with ongoing projects expected to launch between 2026 and 2027 [1][18] Market Dynamics - The domestic PX capacity is expected to see minimal expansion from 2024 to 2025, while downstream PTA and polyester capacities are projected to grow, enhancing PX pricing power [2] - Global gasoline and diesel crack spreads have surged due to disruptions in overseas refineries, benefiting the company's refined oil exports [3] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 227.81 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a slight year-on-year decline of 7.09%, but a net profit increase of 1.34% [39] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 indicate a significant recovery trajectory, with a 90.9% increase expected in 2025 [4][11] Future Outlook - The company is focusing on high-quality development, with strategic investments in new materials and partnerships with major players like Saudi Aramco [28][34] - The ongoing projects in high-end materials and new energy are expected to enhance the company's product chain and profitability in the coming years [28][29]

Market Overview - The futures market for paraxylene (PX) is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 7330.0 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 2.14% [1] - As of December 24, Asian isomer MX increased by $5 to $723/ton FOB Korea, while Asian PX also rose by $5 to $880/ton FOB Korea and $901/ton CFR China [1] Production and Capacity - As of December 26, China's PX operating rate was at 88.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [1] - The operating rate for Asian PX was reported at 79.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [1] - In terms of imports, South Korea exported 283,000 tons of PX to China in mid-December, an increase of 8,000 tons year-on-year [1] Institutional Insights - Newhu Futures indicates that the PX fundamentals are relatively stable in the short term, with a tight supply-demand balance expected to persist until new capacity comes online before Q3 next year, leading to an optimistic market outlook for PX [3] - Guotai Junan Futures notes a marginal easing on the supply side, with several PX facilities undergoing maintenance or restarting, while domestic PX operating rates remain high at 88.2% [3] - The demand side shows a decrease in PTA operating rates to 70.9%, with several facilities either restarting or reducing output, indicating a potential shift in PX supply and demand dynamics [3]