期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 19 日 对二甲苯：高位震荡市，下方空间有限 PTA：聚酯减产计划增加，关注兑现力度 MEG：估值下方空间有限 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7086 | 5018 | 3796 | 6400 | 438.8 | | 涨跌 | -44 | -30 | -21 | 6 | -7.8 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.62% | -0.59% | -0.55% | 0.09% | -1.75% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | 昨日收盘价 | 60 | 44 | -104 | -44 | -3.5 | | 前日收盘价 | 54 | 38 | -111 | -62 | -1.7 | | 涨跌 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -1.8 | | 现货 | PX CFR ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 16 日 PTA：中国大陆装置变动：独山 300 万吨重启提负中，新材料 360 万吨装置停车，目前 PTA 负荷在 76.9%。 另根据 PTA 装置日产/（国内 PTA 产能/365) 计算，目前 PTA 开工率在 82.9% 附近。 MEG：截至 1 月 15 日，中国大陆地区乙二醇整体开工负荷在 74.43%（环比上期上升 0.5%），其中草酸 催化加氢法（合成气）制乙二醇开工负荷在 80.21%（环比上期上升 1.58%）。 对二甲苯：油价持续回调，估值回落 PTA：聚酯减产计划增加，关注兑现力度 MEG：估值下方空间有限 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7130 | 5048 | 3817 | 6394 | 446.6 | | 涨跌 | -132 | -68 | -50 | -76 | -1.4 | | 涨跌幅 | ...

贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 所 | PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 7262 | 5116 | 3867 | 6470 | 448 | | | 涨跌 | -20 | -24 | 52 | -36 | 1.3 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.27% | -0.47% | 1.36% | -0.55% | 0.29% | | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 60 | 46 | -112 | -68 | -2.5 | | | 前日收盘价 | 58 | 52 | -118 | -58 | -1.1 | | | 涨跌 | 2 | -6 | 6 | -10 | -1.4 | | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨 ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 14 日 来源：CCF，同花顺 iFinD，S&P Global，国泰君安期货研究 PX：尾盘石脑油价格偏强维持，2 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 557 美元/吨 CFR。1 月 13 日 PX 价格上涨，两 单 3 月亚洲现货均在 900 成交。尾盘实货 2 月在 889/904 商谈，3 月在 895/902 商谈。1 月 13 日 PX 估价在 899 美元/吨，较 1 月 12 日上涨 2 美金。 Platts 公司于 1 月 13 日评估亚洲对二甲苯 CFR Unv1/中国和 FOB 韩国的标价分别为 898.67 美元/公吨 和 877.67 美元/吨，均上涨 50 美分/吨。 一位中国贸易商表示，中国主要聚酯生产商计划当天会面，讨论减产事宜。 对二甲苯：成本支撑偏强 PTA：聚酯计划减产，关注兑现力度 MEG：估值下方空间有限 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

PTA和PX出口商正密切关注全球市场的关税动态。2025年的政策变动曾对全球贸易流向造成显著冲 击，2026年亚洲PX出口商将继续紧盯美国关税政策变化。美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)数据显示，关税政 策已导致美国PX进口量大幅下滑，2025年1~9月进口量同比减少约37%，其中自韩国进口量跌幅近 50%。同期美国PTA进口量跌幅更为剧烈，韩国货源进口量锐减近75%。不过，2026年美韩若达成新的 关税协议，或将推动相关贸易流逐步恢复。这一情况对亚洲其他国家和地区同样适用。关税对欧洲市场 的影响同样值得关注。欧盟计划于2026年4月裁定临时反倾销税，并于10月出台最终措施。 另一个重点市场是印度。随着2026年印度本土PTA产能扩张，该国PX需求将稳步攀升。市场人士指 出，印度标准局此前针对聚酯产业链出台的质量管控令，曾导致市场分化为双轨制格局，如今该政策已 取消；加之印度GAIL公司的120万吨/年PTA装置有望3月投产，届时当地涤纶纱及聚对苯二甲酸乙二醇 酯(PET)树脂生产商将获得充足且价格实惠的原料。"有了印度GAIL公司的PTA供应，进口需求或将下 降。"一家印度PTA生产商称，进口量持续增长的趋势可能 ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 13 日 对二甲苯：单边高位震荡市 PTA：多 PX 空 PTA MEG：低位反弹，估值下方空间有限 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 所 | PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 7308 | 5142 | 3880 | 6502 | 437.5 | | | 涨跌 | 70 | 34 | 14 | -2 | 4.8 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.97% | 0.67% | 0.36% | -0.03% | 1.11% | | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 70 | 48 | -104 | -58 | -1.1 | | | 前日收盘价 | 94 | 64 | -94 | -58 | -0.8 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Unilateral bullish, focus on the positive spread between different contract months, and consider a hedging strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [5] - PTA: Unilateral bullish, go long on PX and short on PTA [6] - MEG: Unilateral short - term bullish rebound, exit short positions and consider a positive spread between May and September contracts when the price is low [7] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of PX, PTA, and MEG, considering factors such as supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment. It believes that although the fundamentals of these products may face challenges in the future, short - term price trends are still affected by various factors and show a relatively strong performance [5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures contracts increased to varying degrees yesterday, with the largest increase of 3.96% in SC. The price spreads of different contract months also changed, with PX5 - 9 and PTA5 - 9 rising, and MEG5 - 9 falling [2] - **Spot**: PX CFR China, MEG spot, and Dated Brent prices increased, while PTA East China price decreased. The spreads between PX and naphtha, and short - fiber processing fees decreased, while PTA processing fees and bottle - chip processing fees increased [2] Market Dynamics - On January 9, during the Asian trading session, crude oil prices strengthened due to concerns about potential supply disruptions in Iran. However, the increase in foreign currency prices was not as strong as that of other commodities [3] - Chinese downstream polyester production slowed down earlier than expected due to poor sales and lower profit margins. The buying interest in PX cargoes arriving in February was still weak, and demand was expected to be weak during the Chinese New Year holiday in February [3] - Outside China, the situation of cargo accumulation was not as severe, with only a small amount of unsold February PX cargoes among some South Korean manufacturers [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Although the fundamentals are expected to weaken in the future, with increasing supply and high processing fees, cost support from oil prices and positive macro - market sentiment keep the short - term trend strong. Consider a positive spread between different contract months and a hedging strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA when PTA processing fees rise above 400 yuan/ton [5] - **PTA**: Future supply and demand are expected to be weak, with PTA device operation rate stable and downstream demand decreasing. However, due to the current high polyester operation rate and low PTA inventory, the short - term price trend is still strong. Pay attention to positions for narrowing the processing fee [6] - **MEG**: The current low price is due to the reduced efficiency of the intermediate trading link, which is expected to improve. Although demand will decline, supply pressure will also be relieved, and the price has strong support at 3600 yuan/ton. Exit short positions and consider a positive spread between May and September contracts when the price is low [7]

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 09 日 对二甲苯：单边高位震荡市，关注月差正套 PTA：高位震荡市 MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7168 | 5086 | 3846 | 6490 | 416.2 | | 涨跌 | -118 | -64 | -33 | -54 | -0.1 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.62% | -1.24% | -0.85% | -0.83% | -0.02% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | 88 | 60 | -91 | -54 | -1.1 | | 前日收盘价 | 114 | 76 | -91 | -70 | -3 | | 涨跌 | -26 | -16 | 0 | 16 | 1.9 | | 现货 | PX ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX is in a short - term pressure with sufficient spot supply and will experience a high - level sideways market [1] - PTA will be in a high - level sideways market [1] - MEG has limited upside space and still faces pressure in the medium term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Futures**: PX主力昨日收盘价7286，跌50，跌幅 - 0.68%；PTA主力昨日收盘价5150，涨跌0，涨跌幅0.00%；MEG主力昨日收盘价3879，涨41，涨幅1.07%；PF主力昨日收盘价6544，涨12，涨幅0.18%；SC主力昨日收盘价416.3，跌11.9，跌幅 - 2.78% [2] - **Spot**: PX CFR中国昨日价格899.67美元/吨，跌3；PTA华东昨日价格5095元/吨，涨15；MEG现货昨日价格3713元/吨，涨33；石脑油MOPJ昨日价格532.75美元/吨，跌1.5；Dated布伦特昨日价格61.89美元/桶，跌1.02 [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格363.88，涨7.92；PTA加工费昨日价格361.63，涨6.66；短纤加工费昨日价格120.64，跌21.37；瓶片加工费昨日价格43.68，跌25.41；MOPJ石脑油 - 迪拜原油价差昨日价格 - 4.34，涨跌0 [2] Market Dynamics - **Crude Oil**: The situation between the US and Venezuela has not intensified, and the market expects Venezuela's production to increase in the long - term, leading to a decline in international oil prices. On January 7, during the Asian trading session, oil prices fell after Trump said Venezuela would supply 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US [3] - **PX**: In the physical market of PX, especially for February arrivals, there has been little improvement in the past few days. The floating price is weak, mainly due to the expected lack of buying interest during the Chinese Lunar New Year. The floating price for February arrivals is at a discount of about $3 per ton, and the discount for March is shallower [5] - **Polyester**: The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers are highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 74% as of 3:00 pm. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 50% as of 3:30 pm [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [6] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: The future supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil is sufficient, which discounts the aromatics blending oil expectation for the 05 contract. The increase in near - end PX warehouse receipts restricts the performance of near - month contracts. The PXN spread has reached $366 per ton, and enterprises' hedging willingness has increased significantly. The PX industry has weakened, while the capital market has a strong overall expectation for the commodity market [7] - **PTA**: The cost is slightly weak, with a short - term correction and a high - level sideways market. The processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk has risen to over 300 yuan/ton, which is slightly high. The restart of some devices will increase the operating rate, and the overall operating rate will be maintained at about 78%. Although polyester production has decreased slightly, PTA is still in the process of destocking [7] - **MEG**: The medium - term trend is still weak, and a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread is recommended. Although the coal - chemical products were strong due to the coal sector's movement, the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is still high, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand from polyester is weakening, and the situation of oversupply cannot be changed in the medium term [8]

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 对二甲苯：短期高位震荡市 PTA：高位震荡市 MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7336 | 5150 | 3838 | 6532 | 428.2 | | 涨跌 | 126 | 104 | 106 | 70 | 6.5 | | 涨跌幅 | 1.75% | 2.06% | 2.84% | 1.08% | 1.54% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | 112 | 90 | -86 | -54 | -0.7 | | 前日收盘价 | 122 | 90 | -90 | -70 | 1.5 | | 涨跌 | -12 | 0 | 4 | 16 | -2.2 | | 现货 ...