贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 期 货 研 究 2026 年 03 月 03 日 对二甲苯：地缘影响下，成本推涨 PTA：成本支撑偏强 MEG：单边趋势偏强 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7836 | 5552 | 3925 | 7002 | 527.8 | | 涨跌 | 442 | 302 | 222 | 350 | 39.4 | | 涨跌幅 | 5.98% | 5.75% | 6.00% | 5.26% | 8.07% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | 昨日收盘价 | 30 | 14 | -107 | -254 | 4.5 | | 前日收盘价 | -26 | -26 | -132 | -62 | 4.4 | | 涨跌 | 56 | 40 | 25 | -192 | 0.1 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PT ...

期 货 研 究 PX：尾盘石脑油价格上涨，3 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 620 美元/吨 CFR。2 月 26 日 PX 价格小幅反弹，两 单 4 月亚洲现货均在 929 成交。尾盘实货 4 月在 929/931 商谈，5 月在 928/937 商谈。2 月 26 日 PX 估价在 931 美元/吨，较 2 月 25 日上涨 2 美金。 2026 年 02 月 27 日 对二甲苯：跟随成本波动，区间震荡市 PTA：跟随成本波动，区间震荡市 MEG：区间震荡市，多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7382 | 5260 | 3700 | 6658 | 483.6 | | 涨跌 | -50 | -52 | -47 | -64 | -4.7 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.67% | -0.98% | -1.25% | -0.95% | -0.96% | | ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 02 月 26 日 对二甲苯：成本支撑偏强 PTA：成本支撑偏强 MEG：区间震荡市，多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 所 | PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 7432 | 5312 | 3747 | 6722 | 488.3 | | | 涨跌 | -46 | -40 | 10 | -68 | -5 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.62% | -0.75% | 0.27% | -1.00% | -1.01% | | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 20 | 14 | -118 | -98 | 5 | | | 前日收盘价 | 26 | 32 | -112 | -66 | -0.6 | ...

Summary of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The petrochemical and chemical industry has shown strong performance since January, with many stocks experiencing significant gains, confirming previous expectations of industry recovery in 2023 [2] - The outlook for February remains positive, with expectations of continued upward momentum in the industry [2] Key Points by Sector Oil and Gas Sector - International oil prices have risen over 10% since January, driven by factors such as extreme cold weather in the U.S., production halts in Kazakhstan, and tensions in the Middle East [2] - February is expected to see strong oil prices, with a reduction in the degree of supply surplus providing bottom support [2] Refining and Chemical Sector - The refining and chemical sector is projected to perform well in the long term, with domestic refining capacity nearing its ceiling due to government restrictions on new capacity [3][11] - The exit of some ethylene refining capacity in Japan, South Korea, and Europe has enhanced China's global competitiveness [3] - The aromatics industry has shown significant recovery, and the ethylene chain is expected to rebound [3] Potash Fertilizer Market - The potash fertilizer market is viewed positively, with prices stable at approximately 3,300 RMB/ton, reflecting a 50 RMB increase since the beginning of the year [4] - Spring farming demand is expected to drive both demand and prices upward, with a potential supply gap anticipated [5] - Recommended investment in Yara International, which is expected to benefit from rising potash prices in 2026 and 2027 [5] Phosphate Chemical Sector - The phosphate chemical sector is driven by increasing demand for new energy materials, with a re-evaluation of the energy value of phosphate rock [6] - Supply constraints and the scarcity of resources are expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand over the next two years [6] Polyester Sector - The polyester supply-demand situation is optimistic, with moderate domestic consumption growth and increased exports [7] - As of February 5, the weekly operating rate for polyester filament was 74.6%, indicating strong demand potential [7] Dye Industry - Dye prices have been rising, particularly due to increases in intermediate prices, with disperse dyes seeing significant price hikes [8][9] - Companies like Longsheng and Runtu, which have production advantages, are expected to benefit from these trends [9] Sulfur Market - Sulfur prices have increased by 60% since October, currently around 4,000 RMB, benefiting large refineries due to fixed costs and tight supply [14] Fluorochemical Sector - The fluorochemical sector is recommended for refrigerants and fluorinated polymers, with strong demand from the global air conditioning and automotive markets [15] - Companies like Juhua, Sanmei, and Dongyue Group are highlighted as key players in the refrigerant market [15] Additional Insights - The refining sector is facing structural changes in product demand, with a shift towards chemical products due to the gradual decrease in fuel demand [12] - The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is identified as a new growth point in emerging markets [12] - The aromatics sector, particularly paraxylene (PX), is experiencing a price increase due to tight supply and steady demand growth of 4%-5% annually [13] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the petrochemical and chemical industry.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral oscillating market, weakening monthly spread [2] - PTA: Range - bound oscillating market [2] - MEG: Range - bound operation [2] 2. Core Views - PX: Before the festival, it's a range - bound oscillating market with support below, conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage. In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain gradually weakens. PX operating rate rises, PXN processing fee is continuously compressed, and try shorting PTA processing fee when it is above 450 [11] - PTA: The downward space may be limited, monthly spread is bearish. Try shorting PTA processing fee when it is above 450. Pay attention to the 5100 yuan/ton support for the unilateral position [11] - MEG: Inventory continues to rise, supply pressure is still high. Conduct basis and monthly spread reverse arbitrage operations. The monthly spread and basis trends remain weak [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Yesterday's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF and SC were 7308, 5230, 3733, 6626 and 476.1 respectively. Their price changes were 18, 38, - 6, 20 and 11.9, and the price change rates were 0.25%, 0.73%, - 0.16%, 0.30% and 2.56% respectively [4] - For the monthly spreads, the closing prices of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4 and SC2 - 3 yesterday were 8, 28, - 108, - 74 and - 2.7, with price changes of - 8, 20, 2, 6 and - 2.8 respectively [4] 3.2 Spot Market - Yesterday's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ and Dated Brent were 909 dollars/ton, 5145 yuan/ton, 3625 yuan/ton, 612.38 dollars/ton and 72.04 dollars/barrel respectively. Their price changes were 8.67 dollars/ton, 37 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, 14.5 dollars/ton and - 0.07 dollars/barrel respectively [4] - Yesterday's spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, staple fiber processing fee, bottle chip processing fee and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 294.05 dollars/ton, 378.86 yuan/ton, 71.28 yuan/ton, 294.17 yuan/ton and - 4.34 dollars/ton respectively. Their price changes were 5.96 dollars/ton, - 49.15 yuan/ton, 29.19 yuan/ton, 70.13 yuan/ton and 0 dollars/ton respectively [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - PX: Asian xylene prices were evaluated as rising in the upstream market. The CFR Unv1/China and FOB South Korea quotes of Asian paraxylene on February 10 were 909 dollars/ton and 888 dollars/ton respectively, with a single - day increase of 8.67 dollars/ton. The PX - naphtha physical spread shrank to 296.625 dollars/ton on that day, with an intraday decrease of 5.83 dollars/ton [5][7] - PTA: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China was expected to stop on the evening of February 10, and the specific restart time was undetermined [8] - MEG: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the statistical period was extended to February 23. From February 9 to February 23, the expected arrival quantities in Zhangjiagang, Taicang, Ningbo and Shanghai were about 97,000 tons, 63,000 tons, 21,000 tons and 0 tons respectively, and the total planned arrival quantity at the main ports was about 181,000 tons [8] - Polyester: A 460,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Jiangyin gradually reduced production to 350 tons per day from February 10 for half a month. A 200,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Fujian stopped for maintenance from February 10, and another 250,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory reduced production by 30% from February 10 [8] 3.4 Market Sales - On February 10, most direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories had no sales. As of around 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 31% [9] - On February 10, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to be weak. As of around 4:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was estimated to be around 20% [9] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [10] 3.6 Supply and Demand Analysis - PX: In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain gradually weakens. PX operating rate rises to 89.5% (+0.3%), and the Asian device operating rate is 82.4% (+0.8%). The PTA demand side has no obvious change and remains at 77.6% (+1%) [11] - PTA: The terminal demand is that domestic textile sales ended in January, foreign trade has orders, and the polyester operating rate is expected to be 80.5% in February and recover to 91% in March. The current polyester inventory is moderately low, and the pressure after the festival is less than in previous years [11] - MEG: The supply side has an increasing operating rate this week, reaching 76.22% (+1.85%). Overseas device supply will decrease significantly in March. However, due to the large - scale shutdown of polyester on the demand side, the inventory accumulation pressure in February is large, and it is difficult to digest the inventory after the festival [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom, and a backwardation spread strategy is recommended. PTA's downside space may be limited, and a short position is recommended when the processing fee is above 450. MEG has increasing inventory and large supply pressure, and a reverse basis and spread strategy is recommended [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 7290, 5192, 3739, 6606, and 464.2 respectively. Their price changes were 28, 26, - 4, 28, and - 5.6, with percentage changes of 0.39%, 0.50%, - 0.11%, 0.43%, and - 1.19% respectively. The month - spreads of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 were 16, 8, - 110, - 80, and 0.1 respectively [4] - Yesterday's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 900.33 dollars/ton, 5108 yuan/ton, 3635 yuan/ton, 597.88 dollars/ton, and 72.11 dollars/barrel respectively. The price changes were 2.33, 18, 5, - 4.75, and 0.7 respectively [4] - Yesterday's spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 294.05, 378.86, 71.28, 294.17, and - 4.34 respectively. The changes were 5.96, - 49.15, 29.19, 70.13, and 0 respectively [4] Fundamental Data - MEG: The inventory in some major ports in East China is about 93.5 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons from the previous period. From February 2nd to February 8th, the average daily shipment of a mainstream warehouse in Zhangjiagang was about 5400 tons, and that of two mainstream warehouses in Taicang was about 5500 - 6000 tons [5] - PX: The naphtha price was stalemate at the end of the session. A 4 - month Asian spot was traded at 902 dollars/ton, and PX closed at 900 dollars/ton CFR, a 2 - dollar increase from last Friday [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [6] PX Analysis - PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom. The month - spread is in backwardation. In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain is weakening. This week, the PX operating rate rose to 89.5% (+0.3%), and the Asian operating rate is 82.4% (+0.8%). The PTA operating rate remained at 77.6% (+1%). The PXN processing fee was compressed to 288 dollars/ton, and short PTA processing fees above 450 [6] PTA Analysis - PTA's downside space may be limited, and the month - spread is bearish. Short PTA processing fees above 450. In January, textile domestic sales ended, and foreign trade had orders. The polyester operating rate is expected to be 80.5% in February and 91% in March. The PTA operating rate remained at 77.6%. A 250 - ton device of Xin Fengming will be overhauled in February, and pay attention to the 5100 - yuan/ton support [7] MEG Analysis - MEG inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is large. Use a reverse basis and spread strategy. This week, the device operating rate rose to 76.22% (+1.85%). Many overseas devices will be overhauled in March, and the import volume is decreasing. However, due to the large - scale shutdown of polyester on the demand side, the inventory accumulation pressure in February is large, and the post - holiday inventory digestion is difficult [8]

Industry Overview - The China Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) is reported at 4120 points this week, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 1.1% [1] - The CCPI for the previous week was 4066 points, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% [1] - The domestic maritime shipping price for liquid chemicals was 168 RMB/ton, down 8.51% year-on-year and 0.62% month-on-month [1] Express Delivery - In December, the express delivery business volume increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with some companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition [2] - The total collection volume for postal express from January 26 to February 1 was approximately 4.541 billion pieces, up 60.8% year-on-year and 5.5% month-on-month [2] - The total delivery volume during the same period was about 4.477 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.7% and a month-on-month increase of 5.8% [2] - The State Post Bureau forecasts that by 2025, express delivery revenue will reach 1.5 trillion RMB, growing by 6.5% year-on-year [2] Logistics - DSV's integration of DB Schenker is progressing ahead of expectations, with completion anticipated by the end of 2026 [3] - The company is focusing on smart logistics, benefiting from improved demand [3] Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights nationwide decreased by 1.08% year-on-year, with domestic flights down 1.28% [4] - Brent crude oil futures settled at 67.55 USD/barrel, down 4.47% month-on-month and 11.07% year-on-year [4] - The domestic aviation kerosene ex-factory price (including tax) is 5334 RMB/ton, down 4.3% month-on-month and 12.7% year-on-year [4] - The airline sector is expected to see profit elasticity due to supply constraints from aircraft manufacturers and upstream component suppliers [4] Shipping - The container shipping price index (CCFI) is at 1122.15 points, down 4.5% month-on-month and 20.7% year-on-year [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1266.56 points, down 3.8% month-on-month and 33.2% year-on-year [5] - The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) increased by 2.1% month-on-month and 88.5% year-on-year, indicating a growing demand for oil transportation [5] - A recent agreement between the U.S. and India to halt Russian oil purchases is expected to boost oil transportation demand [5] Road and Rail Ports - Anhui Expressway completed the acquisition of Shandong Expressway, acquiring 7% of its total share capital at a price of 8.92 RMB/share, totaling 3.019 billion RMB [5] - The total number of freight vehicles on national highways reached 56.83 million, up 4.75% month-on-month and 506.12% year-on-year [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level shock market before the holiday, with a bearish view on the monthly spread [7] - PTA: Range-bound shock market, with a bearish view on the monthly spread [8] - MEG: Range-bound shock market, operate within the range of 3700 - 4000 [9] 2. Core Views - The overall market of PX, PTA, and MEG is in a state of high-level or range-bound shock, with varying degrees of bearishness on spreads and a general trend of inventory accumulation [7][8][9] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs PX - **Price and Market Conditions**: On February 3, the PX price rebounded, with multiple spot transactions. The PX valuation was 897 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars from the previous day. The PX-石脑油 spread in January averaged 342.17 dollars/ton, higher than that in December. The PX futures closed higher, and the buying interest in CFR Unv1/China goods in March and April was strong [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The upstream performance was mixed. The domestic PX device restarted, and the domestic device operating rate rose to 89.2%. The Asian device operating rate was 81.6% (+1%). The PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 76.6%. The PX entered the inventory accumulation pattern, and the monthly import volume in the first quarter increased to about 900,000 tons [7] - **Trading Suggestions**: High-level shock market before the holiday, monthly spread anti-arbitrage. Try shorting PTA processing fees when they are above 450 [7] PTA - **Price and Market Conditions**: The PTA spot price fell to 5080 yuan/ton, with a weak basis and light trading volume after the price increase [5][8] - **Fundamentals**: The polyester operating rate was expected to be 88% in January, 80.5% in February, and 91% in March. The current polyester inventory was neutral, and the rigid demand for PTA was expected to decline marginally. The PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 76.6%, and the new Fengming 2.5 million tons was planned to be overhauled in February, which could not change the inventory accumulation pattern from January to February [8] - **Trading Suggestions**: Range-bound shock market, monthly spread bearish. Try shorting PTA processing fees when they are above 450. Pay attention to the support at 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [8] MEG - **Price and Market Conditions**: A 500,000 tons/year MEG device in South China restarted, with a load of over 80%. The arrival volume at major ports from February 2 to 8 was about 123,000 tons [5] - **Fundamentals**: The device operating rate rose to 74.4% (+1.3%). The import volume of ethylene glycol from January to February remained high, with an average monthly volume of over 700,000 tons. The weekly arrival volume decreased to 120,000 tons. The downstream polyester operating rate was expected to decline marginally in the short term, and the rigid demand for MEG weakened, making it difficult to change the inventory accumulation pattern [9] - **Trading Suggestions**: Range-bound shock market, operate within the range of 3700 - 4000 [9] Polyester - The sales volume of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on February 3 was generally light, with an average sales volume estimated at 10 - 20% by 3:45 pm. The sales volume of direct-spun polyester staple fiber factories was highly differentiated, with an average sales volume of 57% by 3:00 pm [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Followed the sharp decline in oil prices, with an interval shock market [1] - PTA: Interval shock market [1] - MEG: Interval operation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a pre - holiday unilateral shock market, with fundamentals gradually weakening and entering a inventory accumulation pattern. Consider the long PX and short EB hedge [8] - PTA is in an interval shock market with a bearish monthly spread. Short when the processing fee is above 450. Pay attention to the support in the 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton interval [9] - MEG is in a unilateral interval shock market. The supply pressure is still high, but the downside space below 3600 yuan/ton is limited, and the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [10] 3. Key Points by Related Content Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the main contract was 7150, down 250 or 3.38% from the previous day. The PX5 - 9 spread closed at 20, up 4 from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The closing price of the main contract was 5092, down 178 or 3.38% from the previous day. The PTA5 - 9 spread closed at - 8, up 4 from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The closing price of the main contract was 3767, down 146 or 3.73% from the previous day. The MEG5 - 9 spread closed at - 104, up 1 from the previous day [2] - **PF**: The closing price of the main contract was 6484, down 172 or 2.58% from the previous day. The PF3 - 4 spread closed at - 48, up 8 from the previous day [2] - **SC**: The closing price of the main contract was 449, down 21.8 or 4.63% from the previous day. The SC2 - 3 spread closed at - 7.2, down 2 from the previous day [2] Spot Market - **PX**: The CFR China price was 891.67 dollars/ton, down 22.66 dollars from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 316.83 dollars/ton, down 8.17 dollars from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The East China price was 5125 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan from the previous day. The processing fee was 485.25 yuan/ton, up 86.82 yuan from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The spot price was 3712 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan from the previous day [2] - **Naphtha MOPJ**: The price was 581.38 dollars/ton, down 15.12 dollars from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - **Dated Brent**: The price was 68.77 dollars/barrel, down 3.94 dollars from the previous day [2] Fundamental Data - **PX**: On February 2, the PX price fell. The 3 - month MOPJ was estimated at 571 dollars/ton CFR. The PX was estimated at 891 dollars/ton, down 22 dollars from last Friday. The domestic device start - up rate rose to 89.2%, and the Asian device start - up rate was 81.6% (+1%) [3][8] - **PTA**: A 100 - million - ton PTA device in the southwest is preparing to restart. The PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 76.6%. The polyester start - up rate is expected to be 88% in January, 80.5% in February, and 91% in March [3][9] - **MEG**: On February 2, the port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 89.7 million tons, an increase of 3.9 million tons from the previous period. The device start - up rate rose to 74.4% (+1.3%). The import volume from January to February will remain high, with a monthly average of over 70 million tons [3][10] Polyester Market - Two polyester devices in Shaoxing with a total of 40 million tons and two with a total of 55 million tons are planned to be shut down for maintenance starting from the 5th. A 20 - million - ton polyester device in Huzhou has been shut down for maintenance since the weekend [5] - In January, the average sales volume of domestic mainstream direct - spinning filament factories was estimated to be around 94%. On February 2, the sales volume of Jiangsu and Zhejiang filament was light, with an average sales volume estimated to be 2 - 30% by 3:30 pm. The average sales volume of direct - spinning staple fiber factories was 44% by 3:00 pm [5][6] Trend Strength - The trend strength of p - xylene is 0 - The trend strength of PTA is 0 - The trend strength of MEG is 0 [7]

Group 1 - The chemical industry is experiencing a strong rebound in prices, with the basic chemical index rising by 12.72% year-to-date as of January 30, driven by supply-side maintenance, recovering export demand, and policy-driven structural tightness [1] - Aromatic products have shown significant price increases, with pure benzene prices in East China rising by 18.3% and styrene by 15.5% in January [1] - The price surge is attributed to multiple factors, including rising international oil prices, unexpected maintenance of chemical facilities, and a favorable market outlook for low-valuation chemical products [1] Group 2 - PX social inventory is expected to decrease rapidly starting in the second half of 2025, with a projected drop to 1.67 million tons by the end of 2025, supporting PX spot price increases [2] - The price of caprolactam has also rebounded, with prices rising from 9,325 yuan/ton to 9,600 yuan/ton in January, driven by reduced industry operating rates [2] - The pesticide industry is benefiting from rising core raw material prices and new export tax regulations, leading to price increases for products like glyphosate [2] Group 3 - The pesticide industry is undergoing supply-side structural reforms driven by policy changes, including the implementation of a new registration policy and the cancellation of export tax rebates for certain products [3] - The chemical industry is approaching a cyclical turning point, with stricter standards for energy consumption, carbon emissions, and safety processes expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity [3]