1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The historic rise in the gold market in January 2026 was not a sudden shift in the driving logic but a concentrated confirmation and accelerated pricing of the core forces established over the past few years, namely the restructuring of the geopolitical order and concerns about the global credit system. Geopolitical conflicts, great - power games, and concerns about the US fiscal path and policy independence have made the "ultimate credit hedge" attribute of gold override the traditional "interest - rate sensitive" attribute, becoming the decisive factor in price determination [5][44]. - Market performance in various dimensions in January confirmed the dominance of this long - term logic. The simultaneous weakening of the US dollar and US Treasuries, in contrast to the strength of gold, shows that funds are systematically questioning traditional safe - haven assets and seeking alternatives. The inflow of funds into global gold ETFs, the surge in speculative net long positions in the futures market, and the high domestic spot premium indicate consistent allocation behavior by investors across different time horizons [5][44]. - In the future, the gold price will be a real - time measure of the depth of global political and economic uncertainty and credit risk premiums. Short - term trends will follow geopolitical events, mid - term fluctuations will be related to the coordination and contradictions of the US "fiscal - monetary" policy, and long - term value will depend on the evolution of the US dollar credit system and the actual process of global reserve asset diversification [5][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In January 2026, the global gold market was strong. International gold prices, represented by London spot gold, broke through the $5,000 and $5,100 per - ounce marks and rose above $5,200 per ounce by the end of the month. Domestic gold prices, represented by the Shanghai Gold futures main contract, rose from around 1,000 yuan per gram at the beginning of the month to over 1,200 yuan per gram [8]. - The gold price trend was driven by both short - term risk events and long - term structural factors, showing a step - up pattern influenced by geopolitical situations [8]. 3.2 Geopolitics - **US - Venezuela Conflict**: At the beginning of the month, the US military intervention in Venezuela pushed the conflict to a critical point. In the second half of the month, the situation entered a stage of "action pressure" and "diplomatic negotiation," with high uncertainty [12]. - **Greenland Dispute**: The US claim on Greenland led to a diplomatic rift with European allies, causing the suspension of an important EU - US trade agreement. Although tensions eased slightly after high - level talks, European vigilance remained [13]. - **US - Iran Issue**: The US - Iran relationship escalated in a cycle of "sanctions," "threats," and "negotiation signals." The mixed signals from both sides increased the unpredictability of the situation [14]. - These geopolitical events eroded market stability expectations, forcing global capital to re - evaluate political risk premiums and increasing the demand for gold as a "safe - haven" asset [15]. 3.3 US Economic Situation - **Inflation**: US inflation remained sticky, with core inflation above the Fed's long - term target. Strong consumer spending supported economic growth but also made it difficult for inflation to decline, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed maintaining high interest rates [16]. - **Employment**: The US job market was in a tight - balance state. Although some leading indicators showed signs of a slight easing, the labor market remained strong overall [17]. - **Fed Rate - cut Expectations**: Market expectations for a Fed rate cut were adjusted. After the release of strong economic data, the market postponed the expected timing of the first rate cut. The Fed's decision to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% - 3.75% in January was in line with market expectations, but there were internal policy differences. The future policy path depends on inflation, employment data, and leadership changes [24][26][27]. 3.4 Synchronous Indicator Tracking - **US Dollar and US Treasuries**: The US dollar index fell below the key support level in the second half of 2025. The US Treasury market was in a multi - force tug - of - war. Concerns about the US fiscal deficit, geopolitical events, and the weakening of the dollar's interest - rate advantage put pressure on the US dollar and US Treasuries [28][29][30]. - **Fund Flow**: In the futures market, the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX gold futures increased significantly. Global gold ETFs saw continuous fund inflows. The high gold premium in the Chinese market reflected strong domestic demand [34][36]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The gold - silver ratio continued to decline to a low since 2011. This was due to increased market risk appetite, expectations of industrial demand for silver, and a possible "short - squeeze" structure in the silver futures market [38]. 3.5 Conclusion - The factors driving the rise of the gold market in January 2026 were a concentrated manifestation of long - term forces. The "ultimate credit hedge" attribute of gold became dominant [44]. - The future trend of the gold price will be affected by geopolitical events, US fiscal - monetary policies, and the evolution of the US dollar credit system. Although there are risks of technical corrections and liquidity fluctuations, the structural forces driving the gold price remain strong [45].