美方内部显然也意识到了问题的严重性，美国财长贝森特在巴西投资者会议上主动缓和气氛，明确表示："我们不希望与中国脱钩，但需要降低风险。"这一 表态，恰恰说明美国也清楚看到了自身金融政策的短板，以及中方金融布局的合理性。 需要强调的是，中方有序减持美债、稳步增持黄金，并非针对美国的"对抗性操作"。这是基于客观风险作出的理性再平衡。这一策略，既保障了中国外汇储 备的安全，也顺应了全球储备资产多元化的大趋势。 网上有人猜测，中方囤黄金是不是在为打仗做准备。说实话，这种理解有点跑偏。真要打仗，囤的是石油、导弹和坦克这些实实在在能用于战争的物资。黄 金既不能当炮弹，也不能当粮草。中方增持黄金，真正的作用是给国家金融安全加一层"硬壳"。黄金是唯一不依赖任何国家政府承诺的资产，不管美元是强 是弱，它的价值始终存在。 面对持续攀升的债务压力和美债市场的波动，特朗普最近在一次专访中承认，自己当年提名鲍威尔担任美联储主席是"重大错误"。他还忍不住吐槽，是前财 长姆努钦力推鲍威尔，自己"听了别人的意见才出了错"。 表面上看，特朗普这是在反思人事任命。但实际上，他是借机宣泄对当前经济困局的不满。当初提名鲍威尔，特朗普本是希望他维持低利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market, with prices reaching a high of $5598.75 per ounce and a low of $4402.06 per ounce, is attributed to a combination of factors rather than a fundamental trend reversal. This fluctuation is seen as a phase of adjustment following a rapid price increase, influenced by market dynamics, policy expectations, and trading behaviors [1][6][11]. Group 1: Short-term Volatility - The short-term fluctuations in gold prices are primarily due to a rapid price increase followed by a necessary re-evaluation, rather than a fundamental change in market conditions [6]. - Key factors contributing to this volatility include a shift in policy expectations, particularly regarding the new Federal Reserve chair's nomination, which has led to a reassessment of future monetary policy and an increase in real interest rate expectations, thereby strengthening the dollar [6][7]. - Market trading behaviors have exacerbated the volatility, with high levels of leveraged positions and algorithmic trading leading to significant sell-offs and technical sell-offs, further amplifying price declines [7][11]. Group 2: Long-term Support - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term structural value of gold remains intact, supported by a shift in pricing logic that now reflects a combination of dollar credit and global risk premiums [8]. - Central banks worldwide continue to increase their gold reserves, driven by the need to diversify their reserve assets and reduce reliance on a single fiat currency, which provides a solid foundation for gold prices [8][9]. - The ongoing global economic uncertainty enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with increasing recognition among individual and institutional investors of its role in hedging against macroeconomic risks [9][10]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to differentiate between short-term price movements and long-term investment logic, avoiding impulsive reactions to market volatility [11]. - For those not yet invested in gold, a cautious approach is recommended, waiting for price stabilization before gradually incorporating gold into their asset portfolios [11]. - Existing gold investors should focus on the asset's long-term structural value and its risk-hedging capabilities, rather than being overly concerned with short-term price fluctuations [11].

今年以来，地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场对美联储独立性的担忧以及政府预算赤字膨胀，共同推动金价 大幅走高。这延续了自2023年以来的惊人涨势，而那轮涨势主要受到央行购金、美联储宽松货币政策以 及亚洲投资者买入的驱动。 1月30日，黄金价格延续走低，COMEX黄金期货价格盘中一度跌至5145美元，随后止跌回升，目前交 投于5264美元附近，黄金有色等资源股重挫，晓程科技、四川黄金、中金黄金、铜陵有色、白银有色等 批量跌停，截至11:05，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌6.39%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）跌8.62%，黄金股 ETF（159562）跌9.82%。 宝城期货分析指出，展望后市，黄金价格将成为衡量全球政治经济不确定性深度与信用风险溢价的实时 标尺。短期走势将紧密跟随地缘政治事件的演变，而中期波动则与美国"财政-货币"政策的协同与矛盾 直接相关。长期价值则根本上取决于美元信用体系的演变与全球储备资产多元化的实质进程。尽管需警 惕极高价位下的技术性回调与流动性波动风险，但推动金价的结构性力量并未减弱。黄金的角色已深刻 变化，它不仅是传统意义上的避险资产，更是市场对全球化进程深刻调整和主权信用进行重 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 贵金属 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 黄金 | 月报 2026 年 1 月 黄金 专业研究·创造价值 避险需求推升金价 摘 要 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 15 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 ◼ 2026 年 1 月黄金市场的历史性上涨，并非驱动逻辑的突然转换，而 是市场对过去几年已逐步确立的核心力量——地缘政治秩序重构与 全球信用体系担忧——的一次集中确认和加速定价。本月频发的地 缘冲突与大国博弈，以及市场对美国财政路径与政策独立性的深度 焦虑。 ...

摘要今日周二（11月25日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4140美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 4135.29美元/盎司，涨幅0.01%，最高上探至4134.63美元/盎司，最低触及4122.12美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 此外，通胀与假日消费数据也备受关注。知名人士指出，粘性通胀可能出人意料，若数据强劲，将强化 美国经济稳健的预期，削弱黄金吸引力。不过，她也提醒，许多投资者尚未经历黄金熊市，一旦调整来 临，平仓行为或引发剧烈波动。 今日周二（11月25日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4140美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 4135.29美元/盎司，涨幅0.01%，最高上探至4134.63美元/盎司，最低触及4122.12美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 一位资深市场策略师指出，尽管当前金价稳定在每盎司4100美元附近，但本周或为黄金投资者提供一次 战略性买入的良机。 知名人士表示，近期黄金在4000美元/盎司关口展现出较强韧性，但其上行动力已明显减弱，且价格对 优于预期的经济数据可能格外敏感。他进一步预测，未来三个月内，金价或将回落，并测试35 ...

Group 1 - Recent short-term setbacks in the gold market were observed, with spot gold prices dropping from approximately $4342 to a low of $4086, marking a daily decline of over 6%, before closing at $4128.27 per ounce [1] - Despite the recent drop, market buying remains strong, indicating that the decline was likely a result of profit-taking rather than a shift in the overall upward trend of gold [1] Group 2 - Global gold demand saw a year-on-year increase of 3% in Q2 2025, reaching 1249 tons, with a significant value increase of 45%, amounting to approximately $132 billion [3] - The popularity of gold ETFs is rising, with a record net inflow of funds in September, totaling $26 billion for the third quarter, bringing total assets under management to $472 billion by the end of September [3] - The total market capitalization of gold has surpassed $30 trillion, leading the global asset market [4] Group 3 - The current gold bull market is driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and rising risk aversion, with a fundamental shift towards diversification of global reserve assets away from the dollar [5] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may implement at least one significant rate cut by the end of the year, with some anticipating a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [5] - Since April, a series of tariff policies have challenged the dollar's dominance, leading to a global trend of "de-dollarization" and diversification of settlement currencies [5] Group 4 - Recent data shows that the proportion of gold reserves in global central bank foreign exchange and gold reserves has increased from 24% at the end of June to 30%, while the dollar's share has decreased from 43% to 40%, providing long-term support for gold prices [6] Group 5 - Technically, gold's daily moving averages remain in a bullish divergence, with previous large declines not breaking short-term support levels, suggesting potential upward movement if prices surpass $4200, aiming for a breakout above $4380 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold is rapidly changing the global reserve asset landscape, with its proportion in central bank reserves increasing significantly while the dollar's share is declining, indicating a trend towards diversification of global reserve assets [2][4]. Summary by Sections Gold as a New "Risk-Free Asset" - Deutsche Bank reports that the proportion of gold in global central bank reserves has risen from 24% at the end of June to 30% currently, while the dollar's share has decreased from 43% to 40% [2]. - If gold prices reach $5,790 per ounce, its share would equal that of the dollar, highlighting gold's increasing attractiveness as a reserve asset [2]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that the percentage of central banks planning to increase gold reserves has risen from 29% to 43% [2][3]. Global Central Banks Turning to Gold - The shift towards gold is a key driver of the current gold bull market, with central banks showing increased willingness to add gold to their reserves [2]. - Concerns over the sustainability of the dollar as a store of wealth and the need for a diversified reserve asset mix are driving this trend [4][5]. Diversification of Global Reserve Assets - The dual drivers of risk aversion and "de-dollarization" are pushing central banks to seek a diversified reserve asset portfolio [4]. - The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 57.79% to 56.32%, marking a 30-year low [5]. Long-term Outlook for the Dollar - The dollar index has fallen over 10% in the first half of the year, the largest drop since 1973, raising concerns about its long-term prospects [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing decline in dollar credibility and the rise of alternative currencies may lead to a decrease in dollar reserves held by non-U.S. economies [7]. Implications of De-dollarization - The trend of "de-dollarization" is linked to a reduction in the use of the dollar in international trade and finance, with a growing number of contracts being settled in local currencies [6][7]. - Despite these changes, some experts caution against overestimating the impact on the dollar's status as a reserve currency, as it still holds unique advantages in global trade and finance [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in international gold prices, including a sharp drop after reaching a historical peak, reflect a disconnect between market expectations and reality, particularly following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut announcement [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices surged to a record high of $3700 per ounce before plummeting to around $3650, illustrating the volatility in investor sentiment [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% was initially expected to support gold prices, yet the opposite occurred, leading to a 0.12% decline in spot gold prices [3]. - Historical data shows that after 32 rate cuts since 2000, gold prices increased on the first trading day post-cut 20 times, indicating that the recent decline is not unprecedented [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Central banks globally are playing an increasingly significant role in the gold market, with total gold purchases reaching 1045 tons in 2024, marking the third consecutive year above 1000 tons [4]. - China's central bank has also been increasing its gold reserves, reaching 72.96 million ounces by the end of November 2024, reflecting a trend towards diversifying reserve assets [4]. - The ongoing accumulation of gold by central banks is seen as a response to the need for diversification away from sovereign credit risks, reinforcing gold's status as a "hard currency" [4]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - Experts highlight that gold's role as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation has been reinforced by current economic and geopolitical uncertainties [6]. - Geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Russia are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, providing support for prices [6]. - The tightening liquidity in the market has led some institutional investors to reduce their gold holdings, contributing to short-term price volatility [6]. Group 4: Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in consumer behavior regarding gold, with demand for gold jewelry declining while investment in gold bars and coins has increased significantly [7]. - In the first half of 2024, gold consumption totaled 523.753 tons, with gold jewelry demand dropping by 26.68% while gold bars and coins saw a 46.02% increase [7]. - The divergence in demand between high-premium gold jewelry and lower-premium investment gold indicates changing consumer preferences in the market [7]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Optimists argue that the ongoing central bank gold purchasing trend, persistent doubts about the dollar's credibility, and geopolitical risks provide a solid foundation for long-term gold price increases [9]. - Conversely, pessimists caution that gold prices are at historical highs, showing signs of being overbought, and that the risks of a short-term correction should not be overlooked [9]. - The underlying drivers of gold prices are shifting from simple interest rate changes to deeper questions about the macro credit system, suggesting that gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation properties may be further emphasized in the current global landscape [10].