摘要今日周二（11月25日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4140美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 4135.29美元/盎司，涨幅0.01%，最高上探至4134.63美元/盎司，最低触及4122.12美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 此外，通胀与假日消费数据也备受关注。知名人士指出，粘性通胀可能出人意料，若数据强劲，将强化 美国经济稳健的预期，削弱黄金吸引力。不过，她也提醒，许多投资者尚未经历黄金熊市，一旦调整来 临，平仓行为或引发剧烈波动。 今日周二（11月25日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4140美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 4135.29美元/盎司，涨幅0.01%，最高上探至4134.63美元/盎司，最低触及4122.12美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 一位资深市场策略师指出，尽管当前金价稳定在每盎司4100美元附近，但本周或为黄金投资者提供一次 战略性买入的良机。 知名人士表示，近期黄金在4000美元/盎司关口展现出较强韧性，但其上行动力已明显减弱，且价格对 优于预期的经济数据可能格外敏感。他进一步预测，未来三个月内，金价或将回落，并测试35 ...

Group 1 - Recent short-term setbacks in the gold market were observed, with spot gold prices dropping from approximately $4342 to a low of $4086, marking a daily decline of over 6%, before closing at $4128.27 per ounce [1] - Despite the recent drop, market buying remains strong, indicating that the decline was likely a result of profit-taking rather than a shift in the overall upward trend of gold [1] Group 2 - Global gold demand saw a year-on-year increase of 3% in Q2 2025, reaching 1249 tons, with a significant value increase of 45%, amounting to approximately $132 billion [3] - The popularity of gold ETFs is rising, with a record net inflow of funds in September, totaling $26 billion for the third quarter, bringing total assets under management to $472 billion by the end of September [3] - The total market capitalization of gold has surpassed $30 trillion, leading the global asset market [4] Group 3 - The current gold bull market is driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and rising risk aversion, with a fundamental shift towards diversification of global reserve assets away from the dollar [5] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may implement at least one significant rate cut by the end of the year, with some anticipating a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [5] - Since April, a series of tariff policies have challenged the dollar's dominance, leading to a global trend of "de-dollarization" and diversification of settlement currencies [5] Group 4 - Recent data shows that the proportion of gold reserves in global central bank foreign exchange and gold reserves has increased from 24% at the end of June to 30%, while the dollar's share has decreased from 43% to 40%, providing long-term support for gold prices [6] Group 5 - Technically, gold's daily moving averages remain in a bullish divergence, with previous large declines not breaking short-term support levels, suggesting potential upward movement if prices surpass $4200, aiming for a breakout above $4380 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold is rapidly changing the global reserve asset landscape, with its proportion in central bank reserves increasing significantly while the dollar's share is declining, indicating a trend towards diversification of global reserve assets [2][4]. Summary by Sections Gold as a New "Risk-Free Asset" - Deutsche Bank reports that the proportion of gold in global central bank reserves has risen from 24% at the end of June to 30% currently, while the dollar's share has decreased from 43% to 40% [2]. - If gold prices reach $5,790 per ounce, its share would equal that of the dollar, highlighting gold's increasing attractiveness as a reserve asset [2]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that the percentage of central banks planning to increase gold reserves has risen from 29% to 43% [2][3]. Global Central Banks Turning to Gold - The shift towards gold is a key driver of the current gold bull market, with central banks showing increased willingness to add gold to their reserves [2]. - Concerns over the sustainability of the dollar as a store of wealth and the need for a diversified reserve asset mix are driving this trend [4][5]. Diversification of Global Reserve Assets - The dual drivers of risk aversion and "de-dollarization" are pushing central banks to seek a diversified reserve asset portfolio [4]. - The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 57.79% to 56.32%, marking a 30-year low [5]. Long-term Outlook for the Dollar - The dollar index has fallen over 10% in the first half of the year, the largest drop since 1973, raising concerns about its long-term prospects [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing decline in dollar credibility and the rise of alternative currencies may lead to a decrease in dollar reserves held by non-U.S. economies [7]. Implications of De-dollarization - The trend of "de-dollarization" is linked to a reduction in the use of the dollar in international trade and finance, with a growing number of contracts being settled in local currencies [6][7]. - Despite these changes, some experts caution against overestimating the impact on the dollar's status as a reserve currency, as it still holds unique advantages in global trade and finance [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in international gold prices, including a sharp drop after reaching a historical peak, reflect a disconnect between market expectations and reality, particularly following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut announcement [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices surged to a record high of $3700 per ounce before plummeting to around $3650, illustrating the volatility in investor sentiment [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% was initially expected to support gold prices, yet the opposite occurred, leading to a 0.12% decline in spot gold prices [3]. - Historical data shows that after 32 rate cuts since 2000, gold prices increased on the first trading day post-cut 20 times, indicating that the recent decline is not unprecedented [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Central banks globally are playing an increasingly significant role in the gold market, with total gold purchases reaching 1045 tons in 2024, marking the third consecutive year above 1000 tons [4]. - China's central bank has also been increasing its gold reserves, reaching 72.96 million ounces by the end of November 2024, reflecting a trend towards diversifying reserve assets [4]. - The ongoing accumulation of gold by central banks is seen as a response to the need for diversification away from sovereign credit risks, reinforcing gold's status as a "hard currency" [4]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - Experts highlight that gold's role as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation has been reinforced by current economic and geopolitical uncertainties [6]. - Geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Russia are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, providing support for prices [6]. - The tightening liquidity in the market has led some institutional investors to reduce their gold holdings, contributing to short-term price volatility [6]. Group 4: Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in consumer behavior regarding gold, with demand for gold jewelry declining while investment in gold bars and coins has increased significantly [7]. - In the first half of 2024, gold consumption totaled 523.753 tons, with gold jewelry demand dropping by 26.68% while gold bars and coins saw a 46.02% increase [7]. - The divergence in demand between high-premium gold jewelry and lower-premium investment gold indicates changing consumer preferences in the market [7]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Optimists argue that the ongoing central bank gold purchasing trend, persistent doubts about the dollar's credibility, and geopolitical risks provide a solid foundation for long-term gold price increases [9]. - Conversely, pessimists caution that gold prices are at historical highs, showing signs of being overbought, and that the risks of a short-term correction should not be overlooked [9]. - The underlying drivers of gold prices are shifting from simple interest rate changes to deeper questions about the macro credit system, suggesting that gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation properties may be further emphasized in the current global landscape [10].