城市发展两极化
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专访社科院魏后凯:详解2.5亿农业转移人口如何真正融入城市
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-11-21 13:20
Core Insights - China's urbanization process is entering a phase of speed adjustment and quality improvement, with a current urbanization rate of 67% for the resident population, indicating a gap of nearly 18 percentage points between the resident and registered population urbanization rates [1][2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a people-centered new urbanization approach, promoting livable and workable rural areas, and addressing the challenges of urbanization [1][2] Urbanization Rate and Trends - The urbanization rate is expected to grow at an average of 0.7 percentage points annually during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, reaching 71.5% by 2030, 74.6% by 2035, and nearly 80% by 2050 [2][20] - The gap between the registered and resident population urbanization rates has fluctuated, with a decrease from 18.5 percentage points in 2020 to 17.86 percentage points in 2023 [5][6] Agricultural Population Urbanization - The essence of urbanizing the agricultural population is about co-construction and sharing, with a focus on equalizing basic public services [2][7] - Key strategies include deepening the household registration system reform and decoupling urban welfare from the household registration system to ensure equal access to public services for the agricultural population [2][8] Urban Development Polarization - The current urban structure shows a polarization trend, with super-large and large cities expanding excessively while small cities and towns face slow growth or decline [11][12] - From 2010 to 2023, the number of super-large and large cities increased from 8 to 23, while the number of small cities decreased from 489 to 469 [12] County-Level Development - The development of counties is crucial for attracting and accommodating the agricultural population, with a focus on enhancing industrial support and improving infrastructure and public services [17][18] - The trend of labor migration is shifting towards local and nearby areas, with counties becoming important hubs for absorbing rural labor [17][18] Resource Allocation and Functionality - There is a need to optimize resource allocation and clarify functional positioning for different counties to avoid homogenized competition and enhance overall development efficiency [18][19] - The "one county, one industry" model aims to define clear industrial directions for each county, promoting differentiated development [18][19]