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社科院倪鹏飞:警惕城市规模“越大越好”
21世纪经济报道· 2025-10-03 05:07
今年7月,中央城市工作会议召开,其后《中共中央 国务院关于推动城市高质量发展的意见》 (以下简称《意见》)出台,为新阶段的城市工作划定重点。其中,推动城市群一体化和都市 圈同城化发展,增强超大特大城市综合竞争力,激活城市存量资源潜力,系统推进"好房子"和 完整社区建设,加快构建房地产发展新模式等被摆在更加重要的位置。 从实践来看, 尽管"一城独大"时代已经过去,但部分城市在发展过程中仍存在集聚压力, 面 临协同难题,大中小城市协调发展还有很长的路要走。 "事实上,在一定技术等条件下,任何城市规模都有合理区间,超过区间必然导致规模不经 济。"近日,中国社会科学院城市与竞争力研究中心主任倪鹏飞在接受21世纪经济报道记者专 访时表示。 记者丨李莎 编辑丨李博 当前我国城镇化率已突破67%,城镇开发边界内70%以上是存量空间。城镇化从快速增长转向 稳定发展,城市发展从大规模增量扩张转向存量提质增效,城市以及与之息息相关的房地产, 下一步应该走向哪里? 倪鹏飞兼任多个城市的政府顾问及智库专家,同时是国务院特殊津贴专家,长期深耕城市与房 地产发展经济学,统一发展经济学、竞争力经济学等领域,在相关学科研究及政策实践层面积 ...
三大世界级城市群要来了!城市投资逻辑迎来重大转变
21世纪经济报道· 2025-09-03 04:56
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the recently issued "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Urban Development" as a roadmap for urban development and investment opportunities in China over the next decade, shifting focus from quantity to quality in urbanization [1] Investment Directions - The primary investment focus should be on three world-class city clusters: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, which together account for over 40% of the national economic output, with opportunities in cross-border financial infrastructure and industrial chain collaboration [2] - The development logic of mega cities is shifting from "expansion" to "strengthening," with cities like Beijing focusing on technological innovation and Shanghai on financial openness, creating investment hotspots in related national laboratories and high-end research platforms [2] - Emerging growth areas like Chengdu and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River will focus on urban integration, enhancing efficiency through cross-city commuting networks and industrial cooperation parks [2] Potential in Smaller Cities - Smaller cities and counties are also seen as significant investment opportunities, with some experiencing rapid population inflow, leading to high demand for schools, hospitals, and public services, ensuring high investment certainty [3] - Towns near urban clusters, such as Huqiao in Kunshan, are benefiting from industrial spillover from larger cities, presenting opportunities in supporting facilities like factories and talent housing [3] - Even shrinking cities, like Fuxin in Liaoning and Yichun in Heilongjiang, are exploring green transformation projects, such as wind power and eco-tourism, which, while slow in short-term returns, hold long-term value [3] Investment Logic Reconstruction - Future urban investments will not rely on land finance and scale dividends but will focus on "functional adaptation + efficiency enhancement," assessing projects based on their ability to improve urban capabilities [3] - Each investment must align with the "high-quality development" theme to find its place in the trillion-level urban investment market, whether through urban integration projects or public service enhancements in counties [3]
两座沿海城市“组队”,打造“北方样板”
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-01 23:59
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of deepening cooperation between Qingdao and Weifang to accelerate the development of the Qingdao metropolitan area and strengthen the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration [1][2] - Qingdao and Weifang have been enhancing their collaboration since 2007, with significant milestones including the approval of the Qingdao metropolitan area development plan in October 2023, marking it as the first non-provincial capital national-level metropolitan area in China [2][3] - The two cities account for over 25% of Shandong's GDP, retail sales, and fiscal budget revenue, and over 33% of the province's total imports and exports, despite representing less than one-sixth of the province's land area and one-fifth of its population [3] Group 2 - The strategic cooperation agreement signed in February 2024 focuses on six areas, including technological innovation, industrial collaboration, transportation connectivity, and market circulation [2][3] - Weifang is positioned as a key hub connecting the Jinan-Qingdao metropolitan area, with expectations to become the next city in Shandong to surpass a GDP of 1 trillion yuan, following Qingdao, Jinan, and Yantai [5] - As of mid-2023, Weifang's GDP reached 4,065.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, with projections for 2024 indicating a breakthrough of 800 billion yuan [5]
城市24小时 | 两座沿海城市“组队”,打造“北方样板”
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-01 16:01
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the emphasis on accelerating the integration and cooperation between Qingdao and Weifang to enhance the development of the Qingdao metropolitan area and strengthen the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration [1][2][3] - Qingdao and Weifang have been increasingly collaborating, achieving practical results, and are now focusing on deepening cooperation in key areas such as smart manufacturing, emerging industries, and modern agriculture [1][2] - The Qingdao metropolitan area development plan, approved in October 2023, positions "integration" as a clear direction, aiming to create a model for urban integration development in northern China [2][3] Group 2 - Qingdao and Weifang together account for over 25% of Shandong's GDP, retail sales, and fiscal revenue, and over 33% of the province's total imports and exports, despite representing less than 1/6 of the province's land area and 1/5 of its population [3] - Weifang is identified as a key hub connecting the Jinan-Qingdao metropolitan area, with expectations for its GDP to exceed 800 billion yuan in 2024, following a 5.3% year-on-year growth to 406.53 billion yuan in the first half of the year [5]
详解城市高质量发展“路线图”
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Urban Development," which outlines a roadmap for urban development in China, emphasizing the transformation of urban development methods and the enhancement of urban quality by 2030 and 2035 [1][2] - The document sets specific goals for urban development, including improving living quality, advancing green transformation, and enhancing governance levels, with a total of 23 specific tasks outlined [1][3] Group 2 - The optimization of the modern urban system is prioritized, focusing on promoting urban agglomeration integration and enhancing the competitiveness of mega cities [3][5] - The document emphasizes the need for mega cities to strengthen their core functions while controlling their scale and rationally relieving non-core functions [5][6] Group 3 - The "Opinions" highlight the importance of activating urban stock resource potential and establishing a sustainable urban construction and operation financing system [7][9] - It stresses the need for cities to adopt tailored strategies to enhance development dynamics based on local resource endowments and conditions, avoiding homogenization in urban development [7][8] Group 4 - The document calls for the activation of existing urban resources, including old factories and underutilized commercial facilities, to improve efficiency and effectiveness in urban development [8][9] - It proposes innovative financial policies to attract social capital for urban construction and operation, emphasizing the role of government in facilitating this process [9][10]
重磅文件定调!增强超大特大城市综合竞争力
第一财经· 2025-08-29 15:02
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent release of the "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Urban Development" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, highlighting the transition of urbanization in China from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on improving existing urban areas rather than expanding them [3]. Group 1: Urban Development Strategy - The "Opinions" emphasize the need to promote the integration of urban clusters and the coordinated development of metropolitan areas, aiming to create a modern urban system with a reasonable layout [5][6]. - Support is given to major urban clusters like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area to become world-class urban clusters, enhancing regional coordination and industrial collaboration [5][6]. - The article outlines the importance of metropolitan areas, which are led by a central city, in driving high-quality industrial development through innovation and labor force integration [6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The article identifies urban clusters and metropolitan areas as key spaces for increasing investment, particularly in rail transit projects, with significant growth potential in high-speed rail and intercity rail construction [7]. - Recent approvals for new high-speed rail projects, such as the Shanghai-Hangzhou line with an investment of approximately 67.1 billion yuan, indicate ongoing infrastructure development [7]. - The article highlights the role of super-large cities in enhancing comprehensive competitiveness and the need for these cities to innovate and optimize their core functions while controlling their scale [7]. Group 3: Small and Medium Cities - The "Opinions" call for improving the capacity of small and medium-sized cities and county towns, focusing on optimizing infrastructure and public services based on population trends [11]. - The article notes that some small cities and counties have attracted significant populations due to their strong economic performance, with examples of counties achieving GDPs exceeding 1 billion yuan [11][12]. - The development of "super towns" and "super counties" is highlighted, with several towns in Guangdong and Jiangsu having populations exceeding 300,000, showcasing the potential for economic growth in these areas [12].
新一轮城市竞争,开始了
虎嗅APP· 2025-08-29 10:10
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new direction of urban development in China, emphasizing a shift from rapid urbanization to stable development and from expansion to quality improvement in existing urban areas. This marks the beginning of a new era of urban competition, characterized by collaboration among cities rather than individual competition [4][5][6]. Group 1: Urban Development Strategy - The Central Government has issued guidelines to promote high-quality urban development, focusing on the integration of urban clusters and metropolitan areas, enhancing the competitiveness of mega cities, and improving the capacity of small and medium-sized cities and towns [5][6][7]. - The previous model of urban competition, which relied on individual cities, is being replaced by a collaborative approach where urban clusters and metropolitan areas are prioritized [9][10]. Group 2: Key Urban Clusters and Metropolitan Areas - China has identified five major urban clusters: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, Chengdu-Chongqing, and the Central Yangtze River region, which are expected to drive high-quality development [12][14]. - There are 19 national-level urban clusters planned, with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area designated as world-class urban clusters [13][14]. Group 3: Metropolitan Area Development - The strong provincial capital strategy is being questioned, with a shift towards a "strong metropolitan area" model that redefines the influence of major cities [15][16]. - Currently, there are over 30 large metropolitan areas in China, with 17 approved as national-level metropolitan areas, including key cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu [15][16]. Group 4: Urban Expansion and Management - The article highlights a halt in the expansion of mega cities, with a focus on rationally managing urban functions and optimizing administrative divisions in small cities [34][35]. - The government is promoting urban renewal rather than large-scale construction, emphasizing the transformation of old neighborhoods and housing [41][44]. Group 5: Real Estate Market Implications - The transition from rapid urbanization to stable development will impact the real estate market, shifting the focus from new construction to the renovation and improvement of existing properties [44][45]. - The article suggests that the future of real estate will involve more self-managed renovations by communities rather than government-led large-scale redevelopment [46][47].
新一轮城市竞争,开始了
Hu Xiu· 2025-08-29 06:24
Core Viewpoint - The document outlines a strategic shift in urban development in China, moving from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing quality over quantity in urbanization and promoting collaborative competition among cities [2][4][5]. Group 1: Urban Development Strategy - The Central Committee and State Council have issued guidelines to promote high-quality urban development, establishing a roadmap for future urban growth [2]. - The focus is on enhancing the competitiveness of mega cities and improving the capacity of small and medium-sized cities and towns [3][12]. - The shift in urbanization strategy includes a transition from "rapid growth" to "stable development" and from "incremental expansion" to "quality improvement" [4][63]. Group 2: City Group and Urban Circle Development - The document emphasizes the importance of city clusters and urban circles, advocating for integrated and coordinated development [7][9]. - The new model encourages "collaborative competition," moving away from the previous focus on individual city competition [6][24]. - Key city clusters identified include Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, which are expected to become world-class urban clusters [12][14]. Group 3: Urban Circle Characteristics - Urban circles are defined as having a core city with a surrounding area that includes multiple smaller cities, typically within a one-hour commuting radius [10][11]. - The document lists 30 large urban circles, with 17 approved as national-level urban circles, including major cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu [18][22]. - The development of urban circles is still in its early stages, with many in the cultivation phase [20]. Group 4: Urban Competitiveness - The document calls for enhancing the comprehensive competitiveness of mega cities, focusing on their core functions and global resource allocation capabilities [24][25]. - It highlights the importance of technology innovation platforms in mega cities to drive high-quality development [24][26]. Group 5: Urban Expansion and Management - The guidelines indicate a halt to the previous trend of rapid urban expansion, emphasizing the need for controlled growth and the optimization of administrative divisions in smaller cities [45][51]. - The focus will shift towards improving existing urban areas rather than expanding their boundaries, with an emphasis on urban renewal and community development [58][65]. Group 6: Real Estate Sector Impact - The transition to stable urban development is expected to significantly impact the real estate sector, shifting the focus from new construction to the renovation and improvement of existing properties [61][63]. - The document supports self-renovation initiatives for old housing, indicating a move away from large-scale government-led redevelopment projects [66][68].
2025中国最具投资价值城市50强指数发布!北上广深包揽前四,杭州位居第五
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 11:33
Core Insights - The article highlights the acceleration of global changes and the importance of high-level openness and technological innovation in driving China's economic growth, particularly in urban investment value and potential [2][10]. Investment Value Rankings - GYBrand's 2025 "Top 50 Most Investable Cities in China" index ranks Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou as the top four cities, with Hangzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, Suzhou, Nanjing, and Chongqing following in the top ten [2][4][6]. City Characteristics - Shenzhen leads with a comprehensive index of 95.07, excelling in talent attraction, sustainable development, and future industries, supported by policies like housing subsidies [6][7]. - Shanghai ranks second with a score of 94.34, benefiting from a robust economic foundation and a favorable business environment, particularly in its free trade zone [6][7]. - Beijing, in third place with 93.70, leverages its educational resources and strong policy support to foster emerging industries like AI and biomedicine [6][7]. - Guangzhou, ranked fourth with 92.16, is noted for its quality of life and balanced economic and cultural offerings [7]. Regional Distribution - The cities exhibit a diverse distribution pattern, with strong representation from the eastern coastal cities, which dominate the top rankings due to their economic strength and infrastructure [3][10]. - Central cities like Wuhan and Changsha are emerging as investment hotspots due to their transportation and educational resources [11]. - Western cities such as Chengdu and Chongqing are gaining traction through policy support and complementary industries [11]. Trends in Urban Development - Cities are diversifying their industrial bases, focusing on strategic emerging industries and future-oriented sectors, with Shenzhen and Hangzhou leading in digital economy and AI [15]. - Regional collaboration is strengthening among city clusters like the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, enhancing overall investment value [15][16]. - There is a growing emphasis on talent attraction and innovation, with cities implementing policies to draw skilled professionals and increase investment in technology [15]. Future Outlook - The acceleration of digital transformation and green transition is expected to create new investment hotspots, with cities investing in new infrastructure like 5G and big data [15]. - The integration of city clusters is deepening, leading to more refined industrial divisions and enhanced resource sharing, which will further elevate investment value [16].