21世纪经济报道记者李莎 北京报道 我国城镇化进程正在进入增速换挡、质量提升的攻坚时期。 我国常住人口城镇化率已达67%，有9.4亿人生活在城市，但户籍人口城镇化率与常住人口城镇化率之间仍有近18个百分点的差 距，这意味着有约2.5亿人在城市常住和生活但仍是农村户口，无法完全享受与城镇户籍居民同等的福利待遇。另外，大中小城 市和小城镇协调发展成效显著，但发展过程中仍面临"两极化"倾向。随着城镇化推进，农村人口和村庄数量将逐步减少，村庄 空心化问题日渐凸显。 对此，"十五五"规划建议提出，深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，推进宜居宜业和美乡村建设，并展开系列部署。 日前，21世纪经济报道对中国社会科学院学部委员、农村发展研究所原所长魏后凯进行专访，深入解读"十五五"推进新型城镇 化的关键问题、针对性对策与实施建议。魏后凯长期从事区域经济和农村发展研究，同时兼任中国社会科学院城乡发展一体化 智库常务副理事长、中国农村发展学会会长和中国城市经济学会副会长等职务。 魏后凯认为，农业转移人口市民化的本质是共建共享，根本途径是实现基本公共服务均等化，实施由常住地登记户口提供基本 公共服务。在此过程中，要把握两个重点，一是进一 ...

Core Insights - China's urbanization rate has reached 67%, indicating a shift towards the later stages of urban development, with a trend of slowing urbanization growth [1][2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period saw an average urbanization growth rate drop to 0.78 percentage points due to the pandemic, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 0.7 percentage points, reaching an estimated 71.5% by 2030 [2][3] Urbanization Trends - Historical average annual urbanization rate increases were: 1.44 percentage points during the "9th Five-Year Plan," 1.35 during the "10th," 1.39 during the "11th," 1.48 during the "12th," and 1.31 during the "13th" [2] - The transition from rapid growth to stable development in urbanization is a key focus for the new period, as highlighted in the recent Central Urban Work Conference [2] Quality and Speed of Urbanization - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes balancing speed and quality in urbanization, with a focus on improving urbanization quality and synchronizing urbanization with citizenization [3][4] Rural-Urban Integration - The integration of rural and urban areas is crucial, with county-level cities becoming key hubs for absorbing rural labor migration [7][9] - The quality of urbanization for agricultural migrants needs improvement, with a focus on providing basic public services based on registered residence [4][6] Structural Optimization - The current urban structure is characterized by a polarization between mega-cities and smaller towns, necessitating a re-evaluation of urban scale and structure [11][12] - From 2010 to 2023, the number of mega-cities increased from 8 to 23, while small cities decreased from 489 to 469, indicating a need for coordinated development [11] High-Quality Urban Development - The shift towards high-quality urban development is a priority, focusing on enhancing urban characteristics, safety, and development atmosphere [13][14] - Urban renewal is identified as a critical strategy for achieving high-quality urban development, emphasizing the need for government support to attract investment and stimulate demand [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition of China's urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing the need to align with the new goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and to focus on quality improvement and efficiency in urban development [1][4]. Group 1: Urbanization Development Strategies - The current phase of urbanization should be understood within the context of China's modernization and global changes, aiming to meet the growing needs of the population [1]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period should focus on the deep integration of urban areas across seven dimensions: regional, urban-rural, industrial, digital, green, cultural, and safety [1]. - Urbanization is crucial for achieving economic and social development goals, serving as both a primary content and an important support for building a modern socialist society [2]. Group 2: Key Focus Areas for Urbanization - Emphasis on collaborative efforts to optimize urban clusters and metropolitan areas, ensuring infrastructure and public services are interconnected while allowing for distinctive local developments [2][3]. - High-quality urban development should be assessed through three dimensions: development capacity, livability, and safety, with a focus on creating a unique industrial structure and a responsive safety management system [2]. - Promoting rural-urban integration through reforms that facilitate the movement of farmers to cities and the flow of urban resources to rural areas is essential for modernizing agriculture and rural areas [3]. Group 3: Government Role and Challenges - The implementation of new urbanization should stimulate domestic demand by integrating rural populations into the modern economy, with a focus on local government incentives and accountability [3]. - Addressing the debt issues faced by local governments is critical to ensure continued investment in urbanization, household registration reform, and public services [3]. - The predicted urbanization speed during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to remain around 0.7 percentage points, with a primary focus on improving the quality of urbanization [4].

责任编辑：杨赐 他建议，研究设置市民化率这样一个指标，在就业地享受义务教育、医疗保障、社会保障、住房保障的 农业转移人口就是市民化的人口，而不要再去考虑户籍究竟在哪里，并要求所有的城市都要设置这样一 个指标，争取到基本实现现代化的时候，基本解决3亿人融入城市的问题。 11月14日消息，在今天举行的第十六届财新峰会上，关于"十五五"新规划、新蓝图，第十三届全国政协 常委、经济委员会副主任杨伟民表示，要提高农业转移人口的市民化，常年在城市就业和进入但没有融 入城市的3亿农业转移人口，是形成消费拉动发展模式最有潜力的一个大群体。推进以人为本的城镇 化，要让农业产业人口融入城市，享受就业地常住地的公共服务。 ...

杨伟民分析称，未来5年国际环境的难预料因素增多，必须以国内循环的稳定性对冲国际循环的不确定 性。在国内循环中，预计资本形成对经济增长的拉动作用会比目前有所提升，但如果从总投资增速、资 本形成占总需求的比重、资本形成增量对经济增长的贡献率这三个指标来看，资本形成很难恢复到过去 峰值期的水平。"所以，我认为'十五五'时期必须也只能更多依靠居民消费的持续扩大，来确保经济增 长保持在合理区间。" 对于如何推动居民消费的持续扩大，杨伟民建议，一是要转变发展观念。发展不等于扩大投资，不等于 增加产能。供给决定潜在增长，实际增长取决于需求，各级地方政府在推动发展中不应仅盯着项目、投 资产能，要考虑需求在哪里。满足当地老百姓的急难愁盼，就是在扩大消费、推动发展。 二是发挥目标的指挥棒作用。杨伟民建议，"十五五"规划纲要中，可设置4个需要提高指标的具体目标 ——居民消费率、居民可支配收入占国民收入中的比重、公共服务支出占财政支出的比重、国有资本收 益上缴公共财政的比例。 三是完善收入分配制度。分配是总供求趋向均衡的桥梁，未来的经济政策、经济治理要聚焦收入分配问 题。"十五五"规划建议提出的"实施城乡居民增收计划"值得期待，下一 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant achievements in urban construction and regional development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with an urbanization rate projected to reach 67% by the end of 2024, indicating that 940 million people will live in cities and towns [1] - The transition from rapid urbanization to stable development is highlighted, emphasizing a shift from large-scale expansion to improving existing urban quality and efficiency [1][6] - The primary task of the new urbanization strategy is to promote the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population, focusing on equal access to public services rather than merely resolving household registration issues [8][9] Urbanization and Regional Development - Urbanization is moving from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with a focus on enhancing the quality of urbanization [6][7] - The core of regional coordinated development remains consistent, aiming to reduce disparities in GDP, living standards, and public services across regions [6][7] - The new urbanization strategy emphasizes the importance of improving the quality of urbanization and ensuring that the agricultural transfer population can integrate into urban life [8][9] Urban Agglomeration and City Group Development - The size of urban agglomerations and city groups should be determined by the connections between cities and their radiation capabilities, rather than aiming for larger sizes [2][13] - The implementation of approved urban agglomeration plans is crucial, with a focus on establishing regional cooperation mechanisms [2][13] - The development of urban agglomerations and city groups should promote coordinated development among large, medium, and small cities, creating a rational urban and spatial system [14] Challenges in Agricultural Population Urbanization - The urbanization of the agricultural transfer population faces challenges, particularly in accessing equal public services and social welfare [8][9] - The misconception that household registration is directly tied to public service provision has led to difficulties for many agricultural workers in urban areas [9] - The focus should shift from household registration rates to the urbanization rate of the resident population, emphasizing the need for equal public service provision regardless of registration status [9] Recommendations for Future Development - To address the challenges of urbanization, it is essential to break down administrative barriers and enhance transportation networks connecting core cities with surrounding areas [12][13] - The planning of urban agglomerations should prioritize optimizing spatial layouts and defining the functional roles of different cities to avoid excessive competition [15] - The government and market must collaborate to establish regional cooperation mechanisms for effective urban agglomeration development [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition of urbanization in China from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on improving the quality of urbanization and the integration of agricultural transfer populations into cities as a key task for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1][6][8]. Urbanization and Development - By the end of 2024, China's urbanization rate is expected to reach 67%, indicating that 940 million people will live in urban areas, with a steady improvement in urban carrying capacity [1]. - The shift in urban development is moving from large-scale expansion to enhancing existing urban quality and efficiency [1][6]. Agricultural Transfer Population - The primary task of the new urbanization strategy is to promote the urbanization of agricultural transfer populations, focusing on equal access to public services rather than merely resolving household registration issues [5][9]. - Current challenges include the disparity in public services and social welfare for agricultural transfer populations, leading to difficulties in their integration into urban life [8][9]. Urban Agglomeration and City Group Development - The size of urban agglomerations and city groups should be determined by the connections between cities and their radiation capabilities, rather than aiming for larger sizes [2][14]. - The implementation of approved urban agglomeration plans is crucial, with an emphasis on establishing regional cooperation mechanisms [2][16]. Regional Coordination and Quality Development - The core of regional coordinated development remains consistent, focusing on reducing disparities in GDP, living standards, and public services across regions [6][7]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will continue to prioritize high-quality regional development through strategies like urbanization and regional major strategies [6][7]. Urban Structure and Function - The article discusses the need for a balanced development structure among large, medium, and small cities, addressing the "core siphon" effect where large cities attract resources at the expense of surrounding areas [12][13]. - A focus on optimizing spatial layouts and defining the functional roles of different cities is essential for promoting coordinated development [16][17]. Urban Renewal and Infrastructure - Urban renewal is highlighted as a critical aspect of improving urban quality, with plans for upgrading old infrastructure and enhancing living conditions [17][18]. - The article suggests that urban renewal should be guided by planning and address funding challenges to ensure successful implementation [18].

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is set to review the suggestions for the 15th Five-Year Plan, aiming to outline the blueprint for China's development over the next five years, with a focus on urbanization and regional development [1] Urbanization and Regional Development - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, significant achievements were made in urban construction and regional development, with the urbanization rate expected to reach 67% by the end of 2024, translating to approximately 940 million people living in urban areas [1] - The current phase of urbanization is shifting from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing quality improvement over quantity expansion [1][3] Key Focus Areas for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The primary task of the new urbanization strategy is to promote the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population, focusing on equal access to public services rather than merely resolving household registration issues [3][7] - The development of metropolitan areas and urban clusters should be based on the connections between cities and their radiating capabilities, with an emphasis on implementing approved metropolitan area plans [3][9] Regional Coordination and Development Strategies - The core of regional coordination development remains consistent, focusing on reducing disparities in GDP per capita, living standards, and public services across regions [3][4] - The new urbanization strategy emphasizes improving the quality of urbanization and enhancing the living conditions of the agricultural transfer population, moving towards a more human-centered approach [4][5] Challenges in Urbanization - The agricultural transfer population faces significant barriers to full integration into urban life, particularly in accessing education, social security, and housing, leading to a situation where it is easier to move to cities than to fully integrate [5][7] - The misconception that household registration is the primary issue in urbanization has led to challenges in providing adequate public services to the agricultural transfer population [6][7] Urban Development Trends - The trend of increasing population movement from rural to urban areas is shifting towards inter-city migration, which should be addressed within the framework of the main functional area strategy rather than the new urbanization strategy [5][8] - The phenomenon of large cities growing larger creates pressure on urban management and exacerbates disparities with surrounding smaller cities, necessitating a shift from a siphoning effect to a radiating effect [8][9] Recommendations for Future Development - To promote coordinated development among large, medium, and small cities, it is essential to enhance transportation networks and establish regional cooperation mechanisms [9][10] - The government and market must collaborate to address the practical issues of metropolitan area planning, including funding and implementation [9][11] Land System Reform - The land system reform during the 14th Five-Year Plan has made progress, particularly in the area of rural land rights, but challenges remain in the pricing and transfer of land use rights [12][13] - Future reforms should focus on the integration of land use rights and the promotion of urban-rural integration, particularly in small towns [14][15] Urban Renewal Initiatives - The focus for urban development is shifting towards high-quality urban renewal, which includes improving living conditions and addressing infrastructure issues [16] - Key actions for urban renewal in the 15th Five-Year Plan should include developing specific urban renewal plans and addressing funding challenges [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council have issued opinions on promoting high-quality urban development, emphasizing the enhancement of the capacity of small and medium-sized cities and county towns [1] Group 1: Urban Development Strategies - The document advocates for the dynamic optimization of infrastructure layout and public service supply in small and medium-sized cities based on changes in resident population trends [1] - It calls for a classified approach to urbanization construction, with a focus on counties as important carriers, and encourages the vigorous development of county economies [1] - There is a recommendation to develop small towns according to local conditions and to adjust the economic and social management authority of rapidly growing county-level cities and large towns [1] Group 2: Population and Resource Management - The opinions support the transformation and development of cities experiencing continuous population outflow and resource-based cities [1] - It emphasizes the need for border towns to enhance their capabilities in stabilizing borders, population aggregation, and ensuring safety [1] Group 3: Infrastructure and Public Services - The document highlights the importance of coordinated planning for urban and rural infrastructure and public service systems to promote urban-rural integration [1] - It also stresses the ongoing promotion of the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population [1]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to report on the development and reform situation for the first half of 2025, emphasizing the need for comprehensive promotion of coordinated regional and urban-rural development [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of implementing regional coordinated development strategies and conducting high-quality urban renewal [1] - It also focused on deepening the urbanization of agricultural transfer populations and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization [1]