1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since May 2025, the high - valuation transactions of Shenzhen Metro's long - term bonds in the secondary market have been active, with yields rising by over 20bp at one point. This is mainly due to concerns that Shenzhen Metro's frequent support for Vanke may lead to significant losses in equity investment and drag down its creditworthiness [2][12]. - Real estate - related public opinions may disrupt the valuation of urban investment bonds. After the market digests the impact, the credit spreads usually compress. For example, the public opinions related to Guangzhou Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. and Evergrande and Cedar Industries have affected its bond spreads [2][30]. - The trading of Shenzhen Metro's long - term bonds has stabilized. Given its strong regional economic and financial strength, relatively low credit risk, and higher static yields compared to other municipal subway platforms, there is an opportunity for its long - term bond valuation to recover. Investors with stable liability ends can gradually participate [3][42]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Long - term Bonds with High - valuation Transactions are Active, and Yields Rise by Over 20bp at One Point - From May to June 2025, the number of high - valuation transactions of Shenzhen Metro's bonds in the secondary market reached a record high. In May 2025, there were 65 high - valuation transactions out of 133 total transactions, and as of June 20, there were 144 high - valuation transactions out of 259 total transactions [12]. - Structurally, the high - valuation amplitude of long - term bonds is larger. From April to May 2025, the average deviation of bonds within 5 years from the valuation was within 1bp, while for those over 10 years, it was 2.1bp and 10.86bp respectively [15]. - The average transaction price and term of Shenzhen Metro's bonds have increased rapidly in the past month. From May 20 to June 17, 2025, the average transaction price rose from 1.69% to 2.42%, and the average transaction term increased from 0.9 years to 10.58 years [19]. - Frequent high - valuation transactions have caused the yields of Shenzhen Metro's long - term bonds to rise by over 20bp. Compared with the beginning of the year, the yields of 5 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - year sample bonds have risen by 11bp, 18bp, 18bp, and 13bp respectively [22]. - The reason for the rise in yields is that some institutional investors are worried that Shenzhen Metro's frequent support for Vanke may lead to significant losses in equity investment and drag down its creditworthiness. In 2025, Shenzhen Metro plans to provide about 15 billion yuan in loans to Vanke, and in April 2025, it announced a net profit loss of 33.5 billion yuan, mainly due to losses in its long - term equity investment in Vanke [25]. 3.2 Real Estate Public Opinions May Disrupt the Valuation of Urban Investment Bonds, and Spreads Usually Compress after Market Digestion - The real estate industry accounts for a relatively high proportion of Guangdong's GDP. From 2022, many Guangdong - based private real estate enterprises have defaulted on their debts, and some urban investment platforms have been involved in real - estate - related public opinions [30]. - For example, Guangzhou Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. has public opinions related to Evergrande and Cedar Industries. In 2020 - 2021, it paid 10 billion yuan to acquire 4.8072% of Evergrande's equity, and in 2022, its subsidiary's investment in Cedar Industries' debt financing plan defaulted with an amount of 6 billion yuan. The public opinions have affected the spreads of its sample bonds [34]. - Real - estate - related public opinions can cause the credit spreads of urban investment bonds to widen rapidly, and if there are no new public opinions, the impact may last for 2 - 3 months. After the market digests the impact, the spreads usually narrow quickly, and the market's pricing of public opinions will become less sensitive [42]. 3.3 Transactions are Stabilizing, and Attention Should be Paid to the Valuation Recovery Opportunity of Shenzhen Metro's Long - term Bonds - Shenzhen Metro is wholly - owned by the Shenzhen State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. Its business has strong public welfare attributes, and the region has strong economic and financial strength. The support from its shareholders is potentially strong. Its support for Vanke is within an acceptable range, and its bond maturities are relatively dispersed, with relatively low credit risk [42]. - Since March 2025, the yields of Shenzhen Metro's short - term bonds have declined, while those of long - term bonds have risen, resulting in a significant widening of the term spread. After more than two months of adjustment, the trading of long - term bonds has stabilized [49]. - From a static yield perspective, Shenzhen Metro's bonds have higher yields compared to other municipal subway platforms. Its current yield curve is steeper than in early May, with higher riding returns. The long - term yields of urban investment bonds with an implied rating of AAA are at the lowest quantiles since 2021, while the yields of Shenzhen Metro's 8 - 10 - year bonds are 2.35%, indicating good value [56][62].