1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the buying power of credit bonds may increase, and it is advisable to attack appropriately. One can layout curve convex points, dig into the spreads of perpetual bonds to increase returns, and pay attention to the relatively high cost - performance of 2Y and 4Y secondary perpetual bonds while being aware of the large - scale redemption risk of fixed - income plus products [1][4]. - The yields of urban investment bonds generally declined, with short - duration and medium - low - rated bonds performing better [42]. - The supply of industrial bonds increased, and the proportion of medium - and long - term issuances rose [56]. - The net financing of bank secondary perpetual bonds was negative, and most spreads widened passively [64]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 4月信用债买盘力量或上升，适当进攻 3.1.1 布局凸点、挖掘永续品种利差增厚收益 - In March, the bond market showed a structural market of "narrow - range fluctuations in long - term interest rates, short - term strength and long - term weakness, and a steeper curve". The yields of credit bonds generally declined, and the credit spreads of most within - 5 - year bonds widened passively, while those of 7 - year and 10 - year bonds narrowed [9]. - The incremental demand for credit bond allocation in March mainly came from funds and other products, with the duration concentrated within 3 years [10]. - As of March 27, the yields and credit spreads of credit bonds were generally low, and the carry - trade space of medium - and short - duration credit bonds was significantly compressed [11]. - In April, the bond market may remain volatile. The increase in the scale of wealth management products may drive up the demand for credit bond allocation. One can layout curve convex points to increase returns through riding and dig into the spreads of perpetual bonds [15]. - For medium - and short - duration bonds, urban investment bonds with AA rating for 2 - year and 4 - year terms and AA(2) rating for 2 - 3 - year terms have relatively high cost - performance. High - rated 6 - 7Y bonds are convex points, and one can play with small positions in 5 - 7 - year bonds with an implied rating of AA+ and above [18][21]. - As of March 27, the outstanding scale of public perpetual bonds was 3.53 trillion yuan, and there is still room to dig into the spreads of perpetual bonds. One can actively dig into the spreads of perpetual bonds and wait for the spread compression market [23]. 3.1.2 二永债2Y和4Y性价比较高，关注固收+大额赎回风险 - In March, the yields of secondary perpetual bonds generally declined, and the credit spreads mostly widened passively. The 2 - 3 - year bonds performed weaker. The cost - performance of 2Y and 4Y secondary perpetual bonds has recovered [27]. - The divergence in institutional behavior has increased. Funds "chased up and sold down". The demand for secondary perpetual bonds from wealth management products was relatively stable, and insurance and other institutions have been net buyers in the secondary market in recent weeks [28]. - In April, the buying power of credit bonds is strong, and high - coupon assets may be favored. The 2Y and 4Y secondary perpetual bonds have relatively high cost - performance. However, one needs to be vigilant against the risk of secondary perpetual bond adjustment caused by the redemption of fixed - income plus products [32][35]. 3.2 城投债：收益率普遍下行，短久期、中低评级表现更好 - In March, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive and increased year - on - year. The proportion of medium - and long - term issuances increased, and the weighted average issuance interest rates generally declined [42]. - The net financing performance of urban investment bonds varied by province, with about two - thirds of the provinces having positive net financing [44]. - In March, the yields of urban investment bonds generally declined, with short - duration and medium - low - rated bonds performing better. The credit spreads showed differentiation [46]. - The buying sentiment of urban investment bonds continued to pick up in March. The proportion of TKN and low - valuation transactions increased slightly compared with February. The trading activity of medium - and long - term bonds and medium - and low - grade bonds increased [53]. 3.3 产业债：供给放量，中长久期发行占比增加 - In March, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds increased significantly year - on - year. The proportion of medium - and long - term issuances increased, and the issuance interest rates of medium - and short - duration bonds declined [56]. - In March, the yields of industrial bonds declined across the board, with medium - and short - duration and low - grade bonds performing better. The credit spreads showed differentiation [58]. - The yields of public bonds in various industries declined by 7 - 17bp. The 2 - year - and - within bonds and 2 - 3 - year AA bonds performed better [61]. 3.4 银行二永债：净融资为负，利差大多被动走扩 - Since 2026, there has been no new issuance of secondary perpetual bonds. In March, the secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds were redeemed by 284 billion yuan and 397 billion yuan respectively, with a total net financing of - 681 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 727 billion yuan [64]. - In March, the yields of bank secondary perpetual bonds generally declined, with short - duration and low - rated bonds performing better. Most credit spreads widened passively, and some bonds outperformed or underperformed general credit bonds [66]. - From the perspective of broker transactions, in March, the proportion of TKN transactions in secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds remained basically the same, and the proportion of low - valuation transactions slightly decreased. The trading of large - bank secondary capital bonds extended the duration, while that of large - bank perpetual bonds shortened the duration. The trading sentiment of city - commercial bank secondary perpetual bonds improved [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoints - After the New Year, the market has high expectations for a good start in the 15th Five - Year Plan, with strong profit - taking sentiment. Under the stimulus of the "Shanghai Seven Measures", the bond market fell continuously until it stopped falling on Friday. The medium - and long - term credit strategies had obvious pullbacks, while the short - end sinking strategy's net value remained stable. Looking forward, with factors such as loose capital and the opening of amortized bond funds remaining unchanged, credit bonds are still an asset that combines offense and defense. Currently, the cost - effectiveness of chasing up in the bond market has decreased, and the market is likely to fluctuate in March. There is limited room for exploration within 3Y of credit bonds, with a stronger defensive nature. It is recommended to do more sinking to build a bottom - position. There is a thickening of term spreads for many entities in the 3 - 4Y range, presenting riding opportunities. Long - term bonds over 5Y have certain attractiveness in terms of absolute returns, and institutions with strong liability - side stability can make layouts. There is a convex point around 4Y for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, with expected considerable riding returns, combining both offense and defense [6][10] Summary by Directory 1. Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint: Grasping Bonds with Strong Convexity in the 3 - 4Y Range - After the New Year, due to high expectations for the 15th Five - Year Plan's good start and strong profit - taking sentiment, the bond market declined under the "Shanghai Seven Measures" until Friday. Medium - and long - term credit strategies pulled back, while short - end sinking strategies' net values were stable. In the future, with favorable factors like loose funds and the opening of amortized bond funds, credit bonds are still offensive and defensive. The cost - effectiveness of chasing up in the bond market is low, and March is likely to see fluctuations. There is limited exploration space within 3Y of credit bonds, with a stronger defensive property; 3 - 4Y has riding opportunities due to thickened term spreads; 5Y+ long - term bonds are attractive for institutions with stable liabilities. Tier 2 and perpetual bonds around 4Y have convex points and expected riding returns [6][10] 2. Credit Bond Weekly Review: Overall Stable Performance of Short - and Medium - Term Credit 2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults or overdue cases, no downgrades of corporate main body ratings or outlooks, no downgrades of bond ratings, and no overseas rating downgrades from February 23 to March 1, 2026. However, there were some significant negative events for companies such as Fanhai Holdings, Sunshine City Group, and others [15][16][17] 2.2 Primary Issuance: Significantly Lower New Bond Issuance Costs - After the holiday, the new issuance of credit bonds was slow, with a large - scale net financing outflow. From February 23 to March 1, 2026, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 92.7 billion yuan, lower than the previous week before the holiday. The total repayment amount was 184.4 billion yuan, a peak in maturity in the past month, resulting in a net financing outflow of 91.7 billion yuan. No bonds were cancelled or postponed for issuance last week. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ grades were 1.92% and 1.97% respectively, down 11bp and 23bp week - on - week. The frequency of new AA/AA - grade bond issuance remained low [17][18] 2.3 Secondary Trading: Narrowing of Spreads for Low - Grade and Long - Term Bonds - Last week, the valuations of credit bonds of all grades and terms fluctuated slightly within ±1bp. The risk - free interest rate rose slightly, and the credit spreads narrowed by an average of 1bp, with more narrowing for low - grade and long - term bonds. The 3Y - 1Y term spreads of each grade mostly widened by 1bp, and the 5Y - 1Y AA - grade spread narrowed significantly by 4bp. The AA - AAA grade spreads narrowed across the board, with a maximum narrowing of 5bp for the 5Y spread. In terms of urban investment bond credit spreads, most provincial credit spreads narrowed slightly by 2bp last week, with Qinghai narrowing the most by 7bp. In terms of industrial bond credit spreads, most industry spreads narrowed slightly by 1bp last week, slightly underperforming urban investment bonds, and only the real estate spread widened by 5bp. Affected by the holiday, the weekly turnover rate decreased by 0.82pct to 0.97%. The real - estate companies with the largest spread widening were Times Holdings, Rongqiao, Greenland, and Xinyuan [20][26][28][29]

1. Report Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In early March, it is advisable to take appropriate profit - taking on high - elasticity varieties and wait for the layout opportunity at the end of the month. The bond market in March has intertwined bullish and bearish factors, and the current credit spreads have narrowed to a relatively low historical range. [1][12] - Pay attention to the opportunity of over - decline repair of the constituent bonds of science and technology innovation bonds. If the scale of the science and technology innovation bond ETF stabilizes and rebounds, the constituent bonds may usher in a round of valuation repair market. [4][33] - For bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds (two - tier perpetual bonds), trading desks should be cautious and control the duration. When there is an adjustment in the bond market, seize the opportunity to increase positions. For allocation desks with stable liability ends, they can implement the strategy of "buying more on dips". [6][43] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 3 - month Credit Bonds: Supply Strong, Demand Weak, Appropriate Defense 3.1.1 Early - month Profit - taking on High - elasticity Varieties, Wait for End - month Layout Opportunity - In February, interest rates fluctuated slightly downward. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate once broke through the resistance level but then rebounded. Credit bond yields generally declined, and credit spreads showed a differentiated trend, with long - duration varieties performing better. [1][11] - The current credit spreads are at a relatively low level, especially for high - elasticity varieties. From a seasonal perspective, credit bonds in March usually have strong supply and weak demand, and the probability of credit spread widening is relatively large. [2][13][15] - It is recommended to take profit on high - elasticity and low - cost - performance credit bond varieties in early March and adjust to high - grade medium - and short - duration credit bonds, commercial financial bonds, brokerage bonds, and interest - rate bonds. There may be a certain carry - trade space in March. [3][21] - From the end of March to early April, as the wealth management scale rebounds rapidly, it may be a window period for layout. The layout ideas include allocating products preferred by wealth management, seizing the riding yield at the convex points of the curve, and actively exploring variety spreads. [3][22] 3.1.2 Bank Two - tier Perpetual Bonds: Seize the Opportunity to Increase Positions after Adjustment - In February, the yields of bank two - tier perpetual bonds first declined and then rose, with medium - and long - duration varieties fluctuating greatly. Overall, the yields generally declined, and the spreads showed a differentiated trend. [36][37] - Looking forward, the bond market has increased uncertainties, and two - tier perpetual bonds may face greater valuation fluctuation risks. Trading desks should be cautious, and allocation desks with stable liability ends can implement the "buy - on - dips" strategy. Pay attention to two signals for increasing positions: when the trading yield of 4 - 5 - year large - bank two - tier perpetual bonds reaches the previous high, and when insurance keeps large - scale net buying while funds turn from continuous net selling to net buying. [6][43] 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds: Issuance Interest Rates Declined across the Board, Buying Sentiment Rebounded - In February, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive but decreased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened in the last week. The issuance proportion of short - duration bonds increased, and the weighted average issuance interest rates declined across the board, with long - duration varieties having a larger decline. [49] - Yields generally declined, with long - duration varieties performing better. Credit spreads showed a differentiated trend. Provincial net financing performance was differentiated, with most provinces having positive net financing. [53][55] - From the perspective of broker transactions, the buying sentiment of urban investment bonds warmed up in February. The overall TKN ratio and low - valuation ratio increased slightly compared with January. [61] 3.3 Industrial Bonds: Supply Shrunk, Yields Generally Declined - In February, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds decreased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment improved in the fourth week. The issuance proportion of 1 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year bonds increased, and the issuance interest rates declined across the board, with 1 - 3 - year bonds having a larger decline. [64] - Yields generally declined, with medium - and high - grade long - duration varieties performing better. Credit spreads showed a differentiated trend. The yields of public bonds in various industries generally declined, with 1 - 5 - year AA bonds performing better. [66][69] 3.4 Bank Two - tier Perpetual Bonds: Yields Generally Declined, Medium - and Long - duration Varieties Performed Better - In February, there were no new issuances of bank two - tier perpetual bonds, and the net financing was negative year - on - year. Yields generally declined, with medium - and long - duration varieties performing better. Credit spreads showed a differentiated trend. [72][76] - From the perspective of broker transactions, the number of trading pens decreased significantly due to the Spring Festival holiday. The trading of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks showed different characteristics. [80]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that credit bond demand may slow down in 2026 due to various factors affecting both the demand and supply sides of the market [1][21] - On the demand side, the decline in deposit rates is expected to continue driving residents' assets towards wealth management products, with a steady growth forecast for wealth management scale in 2026 [1][21] - The proportion of credit bonds in wealth management products is likely to face challenges in increasing due to the completion of net value smoothing measures and a low spread environment, with the proportion dropping to 38.8% in Q2 2025, down 2.3 percentage points from Q4 2024 [1][21] - Fund sales fee regulations are expected to significantly impact short and medium-term bond funds, with potential redemption pressures leading to a significant scale of bond redemption, estimated between 1.04 trillion to 2.07 trillion yuan, with credit bonds accounting for approximately 330.9 billion to 661.8 billion yuan [1][28] Group 2 - On the supply side, low issuance rates combined with the "green channel" for issuing technology innovation bonds are expected to lead to continued growth in industrial bond supply, while policies for local government financing bonds remain strict [2][3] - The credit bond market is facing a "yield drought" as industrial bonds do not provide higher coupon assets compared to local government bonds [2][3] - The credit spread is anticipated to exhibit low volatility with potential structural opportunities, particularly in high-rated industrial bonds with maturities around 5 years [3][4] - The opening of amortized bond funds in 2026 is expected to drive demand for specific maturities of credit bonds, particularly benefiting mid to high-rated 5-year and 3-year bonds [4][33] Group 3 - The market is expected to focus on structural opportunities in industrial bonds, including the opening of amortized bond funds, trading opportunities in ultra-long bonds, and the exploration of perpetual bond spreads [5][4] - The perpetual bond market shows significant potential, with a current stock of 2.56 trillion yuan, and opportunities for yield compression expected in the first quarter of 2026 [5][4] - The liquidity spread opportunities in technology innovation bonds are also highlighted, with a focus on the performance of ETF net values and the trading activity of component bonds [5][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the demand for credit bonds may slow down. The incremental funds on the demand - side may slow, and the supply of industrial bonds is expected to continue to increase, while the credit bond market still faces a "yield shortage" [1][2]. - In 2026, credit spreads may show characteristics of low - level and high - volatility. There are structural opportunities in industrial bonds, including opportunities driven by the opening of amortized debt funds, trading opportunities for ultra - long bonds, exploration of perpetual bond spreads, and opportunities for sci - tech bond component bonds [3][5]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Industrial Bond Supply and Performance - Driven by the new regulations on sci - tech bonds, the supply of industrial bonds increased in 2025, with central enterprises as the main force. From January to November 2025, industrial bond issuance was 7.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 798.1 billion yuan, and net financing was 2.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 478 billion yuan. Among them, sci - tech industrial bond issuance was 1.51 trillion yuan, and net financing accounted for 54% of industrial bond net financing [12]. - The credit spreads of industrial bonds in 2025 experienced a process of widening, narrowing, and low - level oscillation. The performance of long - duration varieties was weaker than that of medium - and short - duration varieties, and there were differences among industries [26]. 3.2 2026 Credit Bond Demand 3.2.1 Demand - side: Incremental Funds Slow Down - Although the decline in deposit rates may continue to drive the migration of residents' assets to wealth management products, the proportion of wealth management products allocating credit bonds may be difficult to increase due to the completion of the rectification of net - value smoothing means and the low - spread environment. In Q2 2025, the proportion of wealth management products allocating credit bonds was 38.8%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points compared with Q4 2024 [1][36]. - The new regulations on fund sales fees may cause redemption pressure on bond funds, especially short - term and medium - short - term bond funds. Assuming different redemption ratios, the scale of bonds involved is about 1.04 - 2.07 trillion yuan, including about 330.9 - 661.8 billion yuan of credit bonds [1][42]. - In 2026, amortized debt funds will be concentratedly opened, with an expected scale of over 600 billion yuan. If some products switch to a credit style, it may boost the demand for credit bonds with specific maturities [2][50]. - Credit bond ETFs are not affected by the new regulations and are expected to attract some incremental funds, but the increase may be less than that in 2025. In 2025, the scale of credit bond ETFs increased significantly, but in 2026, the market may not see a large - scale new issuance [52][53]. 3.2.2 Supply - side: Industrial Bond Supply Continues to Increase, and the "Yield Shortage" Remains In 2026, due to the low bond - issuing interest rate and the "green channel" for sci - tech bond issuance, the supply of industrial bonds is expected to continue to increase, while the issuance policy for urban investment bonds remains strict, and new financing is restricted. The credit bond market still faces a "yield shortage" [2]. 3.3 Structural Opportunities for Industrial Bonds under Low Spreads - **Opportunities Driven by the Opening of Amortized Debt Funds**: In 2026, the opening of amortized debt funds with a 5 - year - around closed - end period may drive the allocation demand for medium - and high - rated industrial bonds with a 5 - year - around maturity. 30 industrial entities with cost - effective 4 - 5 - year bonds are recommended [5][62]. - **Duration Strategy: Grasp the Trading Rhythm**: When the 10 - year Treasury bond has a downward trend, or when the long - end interest rate fluctuates with limited upward space, and the long - duration credit spreads break through or approach the mean + 2 times the standard deviation, and at the same time, the net purchase scale of credit bonds is relatively high, the net purchase scale of 7 - 10 - year credit bonds by funds rebounds, and the number of transactions and the proportion of credit bonds with a maturity of over 5 years increase, it is a relatively good time to trade ultra - long credit bonds. When the long - duration credit spreads narrow significantly and the trading activity of long - duration credit bonds is extremely high, it is necessary to be vigilant about the market reversal and grasp the profit - taking opportunity. 39 industrial entities with relatively active ultra - long bond transactions are selected [65][78][79]. - **Exploration of Industrial Bond Perpetual Variety Spreads**: As of December 5, 2025, the outstanding scale of public perpetual bonds of industrial entities was 2.56 trillion yuan. The spread of 3 - year perpetual industrial bonds is currently at a relatively cost - effective level. According to historical and seasonal rules, the first quarter may be a good time to allocate perpetual bonds, and profit - taking can be considered when the spread narrows to a low level and the buying power of credit bonds weakens. 44 industrial entities with cost - effective 2 - 3 - year perpetual bonds are listed [88][93]. - **Opportunities for the Liquidity Spread of Sci - tech Bond Component Bonds**: In 2026, sci - tech bonds are still in an expansion cycle. Investors should pay close attention to the changes in the net value and scale of sci - tech bond ETFs and the trading activity of sci - tech bond component bonds. They can also judge the cost - effectiveness based on the spread between non - component bonds and component bonds of the same entity with the same remaining maturity. For "quasi - component bonds" in primary issuance, if the coupon rate of new bonds is higher than the valuation of component bonds, investors can participate in primary subscriptions to obtain price - difference benefits [95][97].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in September experienced weak fluctuations at high levels, with a bear steepening curve, influenced by upcoming policy directions and the "14th Five-Year Plan" during the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session in October [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market showed weak fluctuations in September, with a bear steepening curve, influenced by speculation on monetary and fiscal coordination and the resumption of national debt trading tools [2]. - Basic economic data released in September was generally weak, but the bond market maintained a bear steepening trend, indicating that market sentiment was driven more by regulatory and monetary policy changes rather than economic fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Supply Side - The expected issuance scale of general government bonds in October is around 1 trillion, with special bonds expected to issue approximately 224 billion [4]. - The total issuance of local government bonds in October is projected to be around 980 billion, with a net financing scale of approximately 700 billion [4]. Group 3: Liquidity - Cash demand is expected to increase, leading to a wider liquidity gap in October, with fiscal deposits projected to increase by around 1 trillion [5]. - The central bank is expected to maintain liquidity support through various tools, keeping the interest rate and policy rate spread stable [5]. Group 4: Policy Environment - The central bank's monetary policy remains stable, with a focus on the use of existing tools rather than introducing new ones, indicating a neutral to slightly loose policy stance [6]. - In September, the central bank's MLF and reverse repos both saw a net injection of 300 billion, maintaining the same scale as August [6]. Group 5: Fund Performance - As of the end of September 2025, the scale of bond funds increased to 96,613 billion, with a net asset value of 110,577 billion, despite market volatility [7]. - The number of bond funds that ended their fundraising early remained consistent with the previous month, totaling 21 [7]. Group 6: Credit Spread - In September, credit bond yields rose, with mid-to-high-grade credit bonds seeing the highest increase of up to 16 basis points [8]. - The credit spread for short-term and medium-term bonds widened, with the 5-year credit bond increasing by 10 to 15 basis points [8]. Group 7: Yield Analysis - For a 3-month holding period, selecting credit bonds with a maturity of 6 to 10 years is expected to yield a return of approximately 0.70% to 0.90% [9]. - For a 6-month holding period, similar bonds are projected to yield returns of up to 1.80%, while for a 9-month period, returns could exceed 2.5% [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the bond market continued to adjust, with credit bond sentiment generally pessimistic and the adjustment amplitude greater than that of interest rates. The overall decline of credit bonds has exceeded the previous round of adjustment at the end of July, and some maturities have even exceeded the bear - flat stage at the end of February this year. Coupon assets have a certain cost - effectiveness [2][5][10][33]. - Currently, there are some opportunities to participate in 2 - 5 - year bank secondary capital bonds after adjustment. The sinking of weak - quality urban investment bonds with maturities of 1 - 3 years can continue to be participated in, and the riding income of varieties with a yield of more than 2.2% and a maturity of about 3 years is quite considerable. For ultra - long - term bonds, the yield has a certain cost - effectiveness after adjustment, but only allocation - type institutions are recommended to participate moderately [5][33]. - The second batch of science - innovation ETFs was listed last week, with enthusiastic subscription sentiment, which may become a marginal stabilizing force for the credit market. However, the boosting effect on the bond market is currently limited [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Adjustment - In the first half of last week, the stock - bond "see - saw" effect was still evident, and the news of fund fee adjustment made the market sentiment sluggish, with yields rising continuously. The 10Y Treasury bond interest rate exceeded the phased top point of 1.80%. In the second half of the week, the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases increased, and yields recovered somewhat, but overall, it closed down for the whole week [2][10]. - Credit bonds weakened in sync with interest rates, and the decline of most maturities of credit bonds exceeded that of interest rates. The anti - decline attribute of credit bonds was weak in this long - lasting bear market [2][10]. - From September 8th to September 12th, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y Treasury bonds increased by 0.4BP, 2.1BP, 1.0BP, 0.5BP, and 0.2BP respectively, while the yields of the same - maturity AAA medium - term notes increased by 3.8BP, 4.8BP, 6.2BP, 3.1BP, and 2.5BP respectively, and the yields of AA + medium - term notes increased by 4.8BP, 5.8BP, 6.2BP, 7.1BP, and 3.5BP respectively [10]. - The market of ultra - long - term credit bonds weakened synchronously, with the decline mostly exceeding that of the same - maturity interest - rate bonds. The yields of AAA/AA + 10Y medium - term notes increased by 8.53BP and 7.53BP respectively, the yields of AAA/AA + 10Y urban investment bonds increased by 6.36BP and 5.35BP respectively, the yield of AAA - 10Y bank secondary capital bonds increased by 10.61BP, while the yield of 10Y Treasury bonds increased by 4.10BP [12][13]. 3.2 Performance of Secondary Perpetual (Er Yong) Bonds - The market of secondary perpetual bonds weakened synchronously, and the "volatility amplifier" feature was very obvious. The decline of 1Y - 5Y was significantly higher than that of ordinary credit bonds, and the decline of the ultra - long - term part was also higher than that of ultra - long - term credit bonds [3][16]. - From the perspective of the curve term structure, the parts within 1 year and over 7 years were relatively flat, and the curve steepened the most from 2 to 6 years. The yields of 1 - 5 years, 7 years, and 10 years of AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 6.09BP, 8.75BP, 9.97BP, 10.32BP, 9.71BP, 8.81BP, and 10.61BP respectively [16]. - Currently, the part of the curve with a maturity of 3 years and above is still 32BP - 42BP away from the lowest yield point since 2025. Compared with the sharp decline at the end of July, the yield points of maturities over 2 years have reached new highs, and the adjustment amplitude is higher than that of the sharp decline at the end of July. The yields of maturities over 4 years have even exceeded the bear - flat position at the end of February this year [3][16]. - In terms of active trading, the sentiment was the most pessimistic in the first half of the week and improved marginally in the second half, but overall, the short - selling force was stronger. From September 8th to September 12th, the low - valuation trading proportion of secondary perpetual bonds was 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 27.50%, 100.00% respectively; the average trading duration was 0.66 years, 0.65 years, 0.57 years, 3.67 years, 6.54 years respectively [17]. 3.3 Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds - The institutional selling market of ultra - long - term credit bonds strengthened for 4 consecutive days and only improved on Friday. Institutions were more eager to sell ultra - long - term credit bonds last week. The discount amplitude of ultra - long - term credit bonds was not small, and there were also transactions with a discount of more than 4BP. About 25% of the discount trading amplitudes were over 4BP last week [4][21]. - The market's willingness to buy ultra - long - term credit bonds was very weak. High - activity trading was mainly concentrated in some short - term real - estate and financial defective individual bonds, as well as weak - quality urban investment bonds. About 35% of the trading amplitudes below the valuation were over 4BP last week, mainly real - estate bonds such as Vanke and Longfor, and there were also central - enterprise bonds like AVIC Industry Finance, all of which were short - term. In addition, many weak - quality urban investment bonds, such as AA(2), AA, AA - with maturities of 2 - 5 years, also had relatively large trading amplitudes below the valuation [4][25]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Public funds significantly sold secondary perpetual bonds last week. They reduced their holdings of credit bonds overall, with a net selling scale of 26.2 billion yuan, mainly selling bonds with maturities of 3 - 5 years. They significantly reduced their holdings of secondary perpetual bonds, with a total net selling of 64.3 billion yuan of bank secondary capital bonds [4][27]. - Allocation - type institutions had strong buying power after the adjustment. Wealth management, insurance, and other types of institutions net - bought 14.3 billion, 15.3 billion, and 29.2 billion yuan of bank secondary capital bonds respectively. In addition, insurance and wealth management institutions net - bought 12.8 billion and 20.9 billion yuan of credit bonds respectively, mainly bonds with maturities within 3 years [4][27]. 3.5 Impact of Science - innovation ETFs - The second batch of science - innovation ETFs was listed last week, with enthusiastic subscription sentiment. On September 12th, the second batch of 14 science - innovation bond ETFs started to raise funds, and most products had good subscription situations. It is expected that the raised funds can exceed 40 billion yuan, and the product scale is expected to continue to grow this week, pushing up the valuation of component bonds [30]. - However, the boosting effect of the second batch of science - innovation ETFs on the bond market is currently limited. The performance of listed credit ETF products was average last week. The weekly -环比 scale of credit benchmark - making ETF products has shrunk for 4 consecutive weeks since the market adjustment in the second week of August, and the weekly -环比 scale of science - innovation ETF products last week was significantly weaker than that in August. The unit net values of the above two types of credit bond ETFs were still in the red last week [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since May 2025, the high - valuation transactions of Shenzhen Metro's long - term bonds in the secondary market have been active, with yields rising by over 20bp at one point. This is mainly due to concerns that Shenzhen Metro's frequent support for Vanke may lead to significant losses in equity investment and drag down its creditworthiness [2][12]. - Real estate - related public opinions may disrupt the valuation of urban investment bonds. After the market digests the impact, the credit spreads usually compress. For example, the public opinions related to Guangzhou Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. and Evergrande and Cedar Industries have affected its bond spreads [2][30]. - The trading of Shenzhen Metro's long - term bonds has stabilized. Given its strong regional economic and financial strength, relatively low credit risk, and higher static yields compared to other municipal subway platforms, there is an opportunity for its long - term bond valuation to recover. Investors with stable liability ends can gradually participate [3][42]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Long - term Bonds with High - valuation Transactions are Active, and Yields Rise by Over 20bp at One Point - From May to June 2025, the number of high - valuation transactions of Shenzhen Metro's bonds in the secondary market reached a record high. In May 2025, there were 65 high - valuation transactions out of 133 total transactions, and as of June 20, there were 144 high - valuation transactions out of 259 total transactions [12]. - Structurally, the high - valuation amplitude of long - term bonds is larger. From April to May 2025, the average deviation of bonds within 5 years from the valuation was within 1bp, while for those over 10 years, it was 2.1bp and 10.86bp respectively [15]. - The average transaction price and term of Shenzhen Metro's bonds have increased rapidly in the past month. From May 20 to June 17, 2025, the average transaction price rose from 1.69% to 2.42%, and the average transaction term increased from 0.9 years to 10.58 years [19]. - Frequent high - valuation transactions have caused the yields of Shenzhen Metro's long - term bonds to rise by over 20bp. Compared with the beginning of the year, the yields of 5 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - year sample bonds have risen by 11bp, 18bp, 18bp, and 13bp respectively [22]. - The reason for the rise in yields is that some institutional investors are worried that Shenzhen Metro's frequent support for Vanke may lead to significant losses in equity investment and drag down its creditworthiness. In 2025, Shenzhen Metro plans to provide about 15 billion yuan in loans to Vanke, and in April 2025, it announced a net profit loss of 33.5 billion yuan, mainly due to losses in its long - term equity investment in Vanke [25]. 3.2 Real Estate Public Opinions May Disrupt the Valuation of Urban Investment Bonds, and Spreads Usually Compress after Market Digestion - The real estate industry accounts for a relatively high proportion of Guangdong's GDP. From 2022, many Guangdong - based private real estate enterprises have defaulted on their debts, and some urban investment platforms have been involved in real - estate - related public opinions [30]. - For example, Guangzhou Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. has public opinions related to Evergrande and Cedar Industries. In 2020 - 2021, it paid 10 billion yuan to acquire 4.8072% of Evergrande's equity, and in 2022, its subsidiary's investment in Cedar Industries' debt financing plan defaulted with an amount of 6 billion yuan. The public opinions have affected the spreads of its sample bonds [34]. - Real - estate - related public opinions can cause the credit spreads of urban investment bonds to widen rapidly, and if there are no new public opinions, the impact may last for 2 - 3 months. After the market digests the impact, the spreads usually narrow quickly, and the market's pricing of public opinions will become less sensitive [42]. 3.3 Transactions are Stabilizing, and Attention Should be Paid to the Valuation Recovery Opportunity of Shenzhen Metro's Long - term Bonds - Shenzhen Metro is wholly - owned by the Shenzhen State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. Its business has strong public welfare attributes, and the region has strong economic and financial strength. The support from its shareholders is potentially strong. Its support for Vanke is within an acceptable range, and its bond maturities are relatively dispersed, with relatively low credit risk [42]. - Since March 2025, the yields of Shenzhen Metro's short - term bonds have declined, while those of long - term bonds have risen, resulting in a significant widening of the term spread. After more than two months of adjustment, the trading of long - term bonds has stabilized [49]. - From a static yield perspective, Shenzhen Metro's bonds have higher yields compared to other municipal subway platforms. Its current yield curve is steeper than in early May, with higher riding returns. The long - term yields of urban investment bonds with an implied rating of AAA are at the lowest quantiles since 2021, while the yields of Shenzhen Metro's 8 - 10 - year bonds are 2.35%, indicating good value [56][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two weeks, interest - rate bonds fluctuated downward. Institutions continued to explore credit - bond spreads, with long - duration bonds becoming the focus. The 10 - year credit spread has significantly compressed. The trading sentiment of credit bonds is quite extreme. Considering the usual significant decline in wealth - management scale in the last week of June, credit bonds may experience short - term fluctuations. Accounts with unstable liability ends are not advised to chase the rising market but can make arrangements during adjustments. Accounts that have already invested in long - duration credit bonds earlier do not need to rush to take profits as there is still some allocation demand in July. Additionally, there is still room for the spread of long - duration credit bonds to compress [1][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 City Investment Bonds - Net financing remains weak. From June 1 - 22, 2025, city investment bonds issued 3781 billion yuan, matured 3767 billion yuan, and only achieved a net financing of 14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 791 billion yuan. The primary issuance sentiment declined, with the proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times dropping by 14 percentage points to 62%. The proportion of issuances with a term of over 3 years further increased to 45% [31] - Short - end issuance rates continued to reach new lows. In June, the issuance rates of city investment bonds continued to decline. The rates for bonds with a term of less than 1 year, 1 - 3 years, and 3 - 5 years decreased by 10bp, 7bp, and 15bp respectively compared to May, reaching 1.76%, 2.19%, and 2.51% [33] - In the secondary market, long - end bonds performed strongly, with yields of many terms reaching new lows. From June 16 - 20, yields of city investment bonds across all terms declined. The decline in medium - and short - end yields was limited, mostly within 3bp, while most long - end bonds with a term of over 5 years declined by more than 5bp, and credit spreads also compressed [36] - From the broker transaction data, bonds of all terms were traded at a discount to valuation, with long - term bonds over 5 years performing the best. The daily transactions of city investment bonds were still active, with daily transactions often exceeding 800, and the average discount to valuation per trading day was around 2bp. The average discount to valuation of long - term bonds over 5 years was 2.8bp [41] 3.2 Industrial Bonds - In June, the issuance and net - financing scale of industrial bonds increased significantly year - on - year. From June 1 - 22, industrial bonds issued 6187 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1345 billion yuan, and achieved a net financing of 3050 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1425 billion yuan. The comprehensive, public - utility, and non - bank financial industries had relatively large net - financing scales [43] - The issuance sentiment weakened. The proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times decreased from 38% to 30%, while the proportion of 2 - 3 times increased from 24% to 30% [43] - The proportion of medium - and long - term issuances increased. Since June, the proportion of industrial bonds with a term of less than 1 year decreased from 40% in May to 31%, while the proportions of 1 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years (including 5 years but excluding 3 years), and over 5 years increased to 40%, 18%, and 12% respectively [43] - From the broker transactions, the buying sentiment of industrial bonds was high. The TKN proportion remained at 79%, and the proportion of discount - to - valuation transactions increased from 65% to 66%. The transaction duration lengthened, with the proportion of transactions over 5 years increasing by 5 percentage points to 19% [45] 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - In the primary market, from June 16 - 22, 2025, Xi'an Bank and Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank each issued a 20 - billion - yuan 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bond. The issuance rate of Xi'an Bank was 2.30%. Minsheng Bank issued a 300 - billion - yuan 5 + N - year perpetual bond with an issuance rate of 2.30% [48] - In the secondary market, yields of bank capital bonds declined across the board, and spreads showed differentiation. 10 - year secondary capital bonds and medium - and long - term perpetual bonds performed better. Specifically, yields of 1 - 5 - year secondary capital bonds generally declined by 2 - 4bp, with credit spreads fluctuating narrowly. The 10 - year secondary capital bond yield declined by 5bp, and the spread narrowed by 2bp. Bank perpetual bonds outperformed secondary capital bonds, with most credit spreads narrowing by 0 - 4bp [48] - From the broker transactions, from June 16 - 20, the number of bank capital bond transactions increased significantly month - on - month, and the trading sentiment was good. The TKN proportion was above 68%. The proportions of discount - to - valuation transactions of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds increased by 2 and 1 percentage points respectively to 70% and 77%. In terms of the term structure, state - owned bank transactions were still concentrated in long - duration bonds with good liquidity. The proportion of 4 - 5 - year secondary capital bond transactions of state - owned banks increased by 3 percentage points to 54%, while that of perpetual bonds decreased by 4 percentage points to 60%. Joint - stock bank transactions reduced the duration [51] - Regarding TLAC bonds, by subtracting the average yields of 3 + 1, 5 + 1, and 10 + 1 TLAC bonds from the yields to maturity of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y AAA - secondary capital bonds, the spreads of secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were obtained. As of June 20, 2025, the spreads of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were 3.5bp, 7.5bp, and 4.8bp respectively, indicating that the 10 - year TLAC bond was more cost - effective at present [54] - For commercial financial bonds, taking the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond as an example, since 2021, its spread has mostly fluctuated between 10 - 30bp, with a stable spread center at 20bp. As of June 20, the credit spread of the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond was 14bp, at a relatively low level compared to the spread center [58]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff measures on the bond market, highlighting a rapid decline in interest rates and the subsequent stabilization, while emphasizing the need to monitor external demand shocks and government debt issuance in May [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Overview - In April, following the implementation of tariff measures by the Trump administration, the stock market experienced a significant drop, leading to a rapid decline in long-term bond yields [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield remained stable around 1.65% during the latter part of April, reflecting market adjustments to external demand shocks and monetary policy expectations [2][3]. - The issuance of special government bonds has been confirmed, with net financing for government bonds in May expected to be around 623.4 billion, indicating a moderate level of financing activity [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The liquidity gap in May is projected to be around 1500 billion, which is considered manageable, suggesting a continuation of a loose monetary environment [5]. - Despite the tariff-induced uncertainties, the central bank has not implemented significant monetary easing measures, maintaining a stance of "appropriate looseness" in monetary policy [6][7]. - The article anticipates that the central bank may prioritize a reserve requirement ratio cut in the second quarter, depending on external economic conditions [7]. Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - In April, credit bond yields decreased, particularly in short-term bonds, with credit spreads for one-year bonds narrowing by up to 14 basis points [9]. - The article notes a shift in the yield curve, with the potential for long-term credit bonds to experience upward adjustments in yields [9][10]. - The analysis suggests that selecting 3-5 year credit bonds could yield higher returns, with estimated riding yields of 0.4% to 2% depending on the holding period [10]. Group 4: Interest Rate Trends - Recent trends indicate a decline in overnight funding rates, with the 7-day moving average of DR001 dropping to 1.65%, reflecting a 30 basis point decrease from previous highs [11]. - The article emphasizes the need for a supportive monetary environment to stimulate domestic demand, with expectations for short- to medium-term government bond yields to benefit from this liquidity [11][12]. - The current yield curve is described as relatively flat, with a higher probability of a steepening trend in the near future [12].