Core Viewpoint - The article discusses differing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, with some analysts predicting a potential rate hike in the fourth quarter of this year, contrary to the prevailing belief that rates will remain unchanged for now [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Despite market consensus anticipating no immediate changes, analysts from Macquarie suggest that the Federal Reserve may increase the benchmark interest rate later this year [1]. - Macquarie economists David Doyle and Chinara Azizova believe that the benchmark rate has reached a "normalization" level, indicating a shift in policy direction [1]. - JPMorgan also revised its expectations, forecasting that the Federal Reserve will maintain a target interest rate between 3.5% and 3.75% throughout this year, with a potential rate hike of 25 basis points in the third quarter of 2027 [1].

【麦格理：预计美联储今年Q4或重启加息 基准利率或已达"正常化" 水平】智通财经1月28日电，尽管 市场一致预期，美联储本周将按兵不动，但相信接下来美联储政策调整的大方向仍是降息。然而，国际 知名投行麦格理北美经济学家David Doyle和Chinara Azizova认为，美联储下一步行动或将是提高基准利 率，时间可能在今年第四季度。他们指出，美联储基准利率或已抵达到"正常化" 水平。麦格理并非唯 一认为美联储下一次利率调整将是加息的投行。摩根大通本月早些时候调整预期称，预计美联储今年将 维持3.5%至3.75%的利率目标不变，并将在2027年第三季度加息25个基点。 ...