1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, the overall inventory level of the five major steel products is normal, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced. The production of rebar has recovered rapidly, with high inventory in East China and rising warehouse receipts. The demand for hot-rolled coils has recovered slowly, with a high overall inventory level, and the warehouse receipts have reached the highest level in the same period, facing de-stocking pressure. Although the molten iron production has decreased, after the Two Sessions, the resumption of production is expected, and the overall supply and demand of steel are balanced and slightly loose [2]. - The raw material end and external disturbances are significant. The sharp rise in crude oil has promoted the expectation of rising energy prices, and there is news that some varieties of BHP iron ore are restricted, further reducing the volume of tradable resources, with strong cost support [2]. - In terms of driving factors, the basis of rebar is bullish, but that of hot-rolled coils is bearish. The overall profit of steel mills is acceptable, and the expectation of resuming production is strong, with the supply side expected to increase marginally in the later stage. The inventory/warehouse receipts in East China are generally high. On the demand side, the de-stocking slope driven by the recovery speed of construction steel in the later stage is the key. The raw material end is greatly affected by non-supply and demand disturbances and is generally strong. Currently, the black market still lacks strong driving forces. Under the static assumption of external factors such as crude oil, the state of the steel market being trapped in a range may be difficult to break, and the later trading logic may switch to actual supply and demand. Spot goods are advisable to be sold at high prices or hedged opportunistically [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Production - In December 2025, the monthly production of pig iron was 60.72 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%; the cumulative production was 836.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. The monthly production of crude steel was 68.18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%; the cumulative production was 960.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. The monthly production of steel was 115.31 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative production was 1.44612 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [5]. - As of March 13, 2026, the weekly production of rebar was 1.953 million tons, an increase of 219,900 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 7%; the weekly consumption was 1.7681 million tons, an increase of 785,800 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 9%; the inventory was 8.9417 million tons, an increase of 184,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.73%. The weekly production of wire rod was 775,700 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1%; the weekly consumption was 690,000 tons, an increase of 89,100 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1%; the inventory was 1.9695 million tons, an increase of 84,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 2.9526 million tons, a decrease of 58,500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 5%; the weekly consumption was 2.9536 million tons, an increase of 137,900 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 5%; the inventory was 4.7159 million tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%. The weekly production of cold-rolled coils was 882,700 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.15%; the weekly consumption was 912,000 tons, an increase of 62,400 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.62%; the inventory was 1.8884 million tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.01%. The weekly production of medium and heavy plates was 1.6457 million tons, an increase of 51,300 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3.57%; the weekly consumption was 1.6561 million tons, a decrease of 7,900 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3.66%; the inventory was 2.2334 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The total weekly production of the five major steel products was 8.2097 million tons, an increase of 237,300 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.82%; the total weekly consumption was 7.98 million tons, an increase of 1.07 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.86%; the total inventory was 19.75 million tons, an increase of 228,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.94% [6]. Steel Demand - Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities compared with the same period last year is 20%. The cumulative year-on-year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities is 5% [29]. - In 2025, China's steel exports to Iran were only 270,000 tons, which can be ignored, but the exports to the seven Gulf countries were about 14 million tons, accounting for about 11.7% of China's total steel exports. Due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, China's steel export orders and shipments to this region have been affected. Therefore, the war has a negative impact on China's steel exports in the short term, but if the war continues, the local steel shortage may need to be filled by China, which will form an indirect benefit. From January to February this year, steel exports decreased by 8% year-on-year [37]. Steel Inventory - The rebar basis continued to decline this week and is still slightly higher year-on-year. Currently, the production profit of rebar is generally better than that of hot-rolled coils, which is also reflected in the month-on-month increase in rebar production. According to past rules, the basis is expected to narrow. From a lunar perspective, the inventory in Hangzhou has reached the highest level in the same period, and there is still room for further decline [50]. - The hot-rolled coil basis weakened this week, falling below -20, with a recent decline of about 50 yuan/ton. The high inventory of hot-rolled coils and the warehouse receipts reaching the high level in the same period put pressure on the basis. However, from historical data, the current basis has dropped to the low level in the same period, and the room for further weakening may be limited [54]. - The 5 - 10 month spread of rebar fluctuated little this week. During the de-stocking period, the month spread is likely to weaken. At the same time, the high inventory level in Hangzhou may lead to a weakening of the month spread in the later stage [60]. - The 5 - 10 month spread of hot-rolled coils strengthened slightly, but the room for further strengthening is limited under the pressure of warehouse receipts and de-stocking [62].