一方面，钢材价格波动率显著收窄，其核心原因在于供需两端均未出现能够支撑盘面展开趋势性行情的矛盾。供给端，行业缺乏自上而下的反内卷等强力 政策约束，产量调整更多依赖市场化盈亏调节。铁水产量在调整中正寻找新的平衡点，市场对阶段性亏损后的复产始终存有预期，特别是近期谷电利润的 出现，为电炉产线、尤其是建材的边际增量提供了现实可能，削弱供给收缩的想象空间。需求端，淡季特征依然明显，螺纹钢表观消费量持续回落，热卷 表需亦表现疲弱，整体现货市场维持刚需采购节奏。更关键的是，市场博弈的焦点已从对短期强刺激政策的期待，转向对中长期政策定力与经济目标的解 读，这进一步动摇了此前基于强预期的交易逻辑。供需两侧的故事性均在衰减，这种供需弱平衡状态，削弱了价格波动的驱动。 近期黑色系呈现弱势震荡格局，政策真空期内，多空双方博弈新的矛盾出现。整体市场波动率下降，观望情绪有所增加，在市场情绪由政策反内卷预期转 向淡季弱现实之际，盘面利润显现出先反弹后继续回落的大趋势，产业链内商品走势整体陷入上有顶、下有底的胶着状态，这种格局背后，是宏观预期摇 摆、产业现实矛盾不突出等多重因素交织的结果。 数据来源：Mysteel 同花顺 国海良时期货研 ...

南华期货钢材产业周报 ——原料端让利，关注宏观扰动，下方空间有限 陈敏涛（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022731） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月7日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 【盘面回顾】上周钢材价格震荡偏强，随着美联储利率决定会议和国内宏观会议的召开，市场宏观情绪偏 暖，市场预期可能会在稳地产、财政方面做出针对性部署，市场可能在提前炒作，提振了钢材的多头情绪。 但铁矿港口继续累库，铁矿估值相对较高，和在减产逻辑下焦煤的供应过剩程度加深，焦炭受提降预期影 响，周五焦煤大幅下跌，进一步影响了成材的上涨空间。 【核心逻辑】上周五大材供需双减，库存维持缓慢去库的趋势，供需平衡是在边际改善的，但目前高炉和电 炉的利润是在边际好转，盘面利润也在边际改善，主要来自于炉料端的让利，钢材减产的力度可能会逐渐减 弱，并且铁废价差走扩，废钢的性价比也在提升，电炉端有增仓的利润驱动。热卷开始缓慢去库，但库存依 然处于近5年同期较高的水平，库存超季节性累库，去库可能需要依赖减产路径去实现。板材出口保持高位的 支撑出口需求不错，但内需环比逐渐走弱。铁水上周环比下滑 ，预计后续按照季 ...

Group 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook - The production of major steel products has decreased, with rebar production declining faster than hot-rolled steel, and iron output continuing to fall [6][71] - Total steel inventory is rapidly decreasing, with social inventory reducing faster than factory inventory; seasonal demand for steel is also declining, particularly for rebar [6][71] - Environmental inspections have intensified, leading to a further decline in iron output, although profits from blast furnaces are recovering, limiting the drive for active production cuts [6][71] Group 2: Supply and Demand Data - Rebar small sample production is 1.8931 million tons, down 167,700 tons; hot-rolled small sample production is 3.1431 million tons, down 47,000 tons [8][69] - Daily average iron output from 247 steel mills is 2.323 million tons, down 23,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 33.1%, down 0.4% [8][69] - Demand for rebar is 2.1698 million tons, down 109,600 tons; demand for hot-rolled steel is 3.1486 million tons, down 53,600 tons [8][69] Group 3: Macro Data and Economic Indicators - China's fixed asset investment growth rate has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% for the first ten months of 2025; real estate investment has dropped by 14.7% [34] - The official manufacturing PMI for November is 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing, while the U.S. manufacturing PMI is at 52.2, showing continued recovery [34][30] - The unemployment claims in the U.S. are at 191,000, lower than the expected 220,000, indicating some stability in the labor market [30][34] Group 4: Inventory Situation - Rebar inventory has decreased by 40,500 tons in factories and 236,200 tons in social inventory, totaling a reduction of 276,700 tons; hot-rolled inventory has increased by 19,000 tons in factories but decreased by 24,500 tons in social inventory [8][69] - Overall inventory for five major materials has decreased by 35,220 tons, with factory inventory down by 64,400 tons and social inventory down by 287,800 tons [8][69] Group 5: Price and Profit Review - The average price for rebar in Shanghai is 3,220 yuan, up 30 yuan; the average price for hot-rolled steel is 3,280 yuan, up 20 yuan [12][80] - The profit for electric arc furnaces in East China is -54.51 yuan per ton, while the profit for using valley electricity is 110 yuan per ton [90][69] - The cash profit for rebar in East China is around 1,200 yuan per ton, indicating a slight profitability for long-process steel mills [23][86]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel mills continued to cut production. After the holiday, steel demand improved, but hot - rolled coil production was high with inventory accumulation (though at a slower pace), while rebar shifted to destocking. The black - related sectors were under pressure, but steel prices had low valuations and there was some support below. The "14th Five - Year Plan" and other factors would affect the market. Suggestions included holding long positions in the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, and taking a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and options [4][6][8] Group 3: Summary by Chapters Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, rebar small - sample production was 201.16 tons (-3.62), hot - rolled coil small - sample production was 321.84 tons (-1.45). 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal was 240.95 tons (-0.59), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 33.2% (+4.8). Short - process profits declined, long - process steel profits continued to shrink and turned to losses. Overall, steel production enthusiasm was still strong [4] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent demand was 217.43 tons (+64.25), hot - rolled coil apparent demand was 316.34 tons (+21.33). After the holiday, steel destocking accelerated, but downstream construction sites had difficulties in receiving payments. Real estate demand was weak, the manufacturing PMI was still below the boom - bust line, the auto industry maintained positive growth but with shrinking profits, and the white - goods production schedule declined. Overseas, the US manufacturing was recovering, while the eurozone's manufacturing was weak [4] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased by 18.59 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.29 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 18.46 tons [4] - **Outlook**: After the holiday, steel demand improved with the temperature drop, but the black - related sectors were under pressure. Steel prices had low valuations and there was some support below. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [6] - **Trading Strategies**: Suggest a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and options, and continue to hold long positions in the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [8] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: In Shanghai, the rebar summary price was 3290 yuan (-30), and the hot - rolled coil price was 3290 yuan (-100). In Beijing, the rebar summary price was 3190 yuan (-60), and in Tianjin, the hot - rolled coil price was 3190 yuan (-100) [12] - **Profit**: Long - process steel profits continued to shrink and turned to losses. Short - process steel profits declined, with the East China flat - rate electric furnace profit at - 262.61 yuan (-54.8) and the valley - rate electric furnace profit at - 98 yuan (-55) [4][26] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Trade and Policy**: China announced counter - measures against the US 301 investigation on the shipbuilding industry, and would charge special port fees on US - related ships starting from October 14. In September 2025, China exported 1046.5 tons of steel, a 10.0% increase from the previous month, and the cumulative export from January to September was 8795.5 tons, a 9.2% increase year - on - year [28] - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In September 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.21%. From January to August 2025, China's fixed - asset investment growth rate continued to decline, with real estate investment being a drag on domestic demand, and insufficient new infrastructure investment projects [28][33] - **Real Estate Data**: In 2025, the real estate market continued to be weak, with continuous declines in new construction, completion, and sales areas [4][33] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal production was 240.95 tons (-0.59), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 33.2% (+4.8). Rebar small - sample production was 201.16 tons (-3.62), and hot - rolled coil small - sample production was 321.84 tons (-1.45) [53][57] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent demand was 217.43 tons (+64.25), hot - rolled coil apparent demand was 316.34 tons (+21.33). Construction site funds were tight, and downstream demand was under pressure. The steel export in September was strong, and it was expected to maintain strong resilience in the future [60][72] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased by 18.59 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.29 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 18.46 tons [4]

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a decline in spot prices, with rebar and hot-rolled coil showing different trends in demand and supply dynamics [1][6]. Supply - Iron and steel production remains high, but there is a slight reduction due to environmental factors during the National Day holiday. The output of the five major steel products remains stable year-on-year, with a total output of 8.63 million tons as of October 8, showing a decrease of 40,000 tons month-on-month [3]. - Rebar production is at 2.03 million tons, down 36,000 tons from the previous month, while hot-rolled coil production is at 3.23 million tons, maintaining a high level [3]. Demand - Rebar demand has decreased year-on-year but shows seasonal improvement month-on-month. The holiday effect has led to a drop in demand by 950,000 tons to 1.46 million tons [4]. - Hot-rolled coil demand has increased year-on-year but remained stable month-on-month, with a holiday-related decline of 340,000 tons to 2.91 million tons [4]. Inventory - Inventory levels for the five major steel products have increased by 1.28 million tons to 16 million tons, with rebar inventory rising by 570,000 tons to 6.6 million tons and hot-rolled coil inventory increasing by 320,000 tons to 4.12 million tons [5]. - Despite the increase in inventory, production levels are expected to remain above demand, leading to a projected year-on-year increase in inventory but a month-on-month decline [5]. Cost and Profit - The cost side shows a slight decline in coal mine operating rates and daily output due to the National Day holiday, with current production levels at historically low levels. Steel profits have significantly decreased from their high levels, with the profit ranking from high to low being billet, hot-rolled coil, rebar, and cold-rolled coil [2]. Market Outlook - Although steel demand is weak, there is cost support in the market. The focus for January contracts for rebar and hot-rolled coil is on support levels around 3,000 and 3,200 respectively [6].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report includes three industry period - spot daily reports on steel, iron ore, and coke & coking coal, dated October 10 - 13, 2025 [1][5][10] Group 2: Steel Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Short - term macro sentiment is bearish due to escalating Sino - US friction; industry supply - demand is balanced with low inventory pressure, but poor peak - season demand expectations suppress valuation; there is no trending market in the real - world industry; short - term weak macro sentiment will push black metals down; focus on the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coils in the January contract [2] Section Summaries - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined; some contract prices had small changes; steel billet prices decreased, while slab prices were stable; production costs and profits varied by region and production method [2] - **Production**: Daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.1% to 241.5 tons; five major steel product output decreased by 0.4% to 863.3 tons; rebar output decreased by 1.7% to 203.4 tons; hot - rolled coil output decreased by 0.4% to 323.3 tons [2] - **Inventory**: Five major steel product inventory increased by 8.7% to 1600.7 tons; rebar inventory increased by 9.5% to 659.6 tons; hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.5% to 412.9 tons [2] - **Trading and Demand**: Building material trading volume decreased by 7.1% to 9.1 tons; five major steel product apparent demand decreased by 17.0% to 751.4 tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 36.5% to 153.2 tons; hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 9.1% to 295.0 tons [2] Group 3: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated upwards; supply concerns have weakened; demand from steel mills is weakening; the market will fluctuate within a range due to weak steel prices and falling mill profitability; pay attention to production control policies, Sino - Australian negotiations, and Sino - US tariff wars; consider going long on the 2601 contract at low prices and the spread trade of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coils [5][6] Section Summaries - **Prices and Spreads**: Warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types increased slightly; spot prices at Rizhao Port rose slightly; price indices also increased; some spreads changed [5] - **Supply**: 45 - port weekly arrivals increased by 10.5% to 2608.7 tons; global weekly shipments decreased by 5.7% to 3279.0 tons; monthly national imports increased by 0.6% to 10522.5 tons [5] - **Demand**: 247 steel mills' weekly average pig iron output decreased by 0.1% to 241.5 tons; 45 - port weekly average ore - removal volume decreased by 2.8% to 327.0 tons; monthly national pig iron output decreased by 1.4% to 6979.3 tons; monthly national crude steel output decreased by 2.9% to 7736.9 tons [5] - **Inventory**: 45 - port inventory increased by 0.3% to 14024.5 tons; 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 9.9% to 9046.2 tons; 64 steel mills' available inventory days decreased by 16.0% to 21.0 days [5] Group 4: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View Coke - Last week, coke futures rebounded; spot prices are showing signs of weakness; there is a possibility of the coke futures price falling again; pay attention to production reduction policies in Shanxi and the steel market; consider shorting the 2601 contract at high prices and the spread trade of long iron ore and short coke [10] Coking Coal - Last week, coking coal futures rebounded; spot prices are weakening; the futures price may fall after rising; consider shorting the 2601 contract at high prices and the spread trade of long iron ore and short coking coal [10] Section Summaries Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: Some coke spot prices decreased; contract prices increased slightly; basis and spreads changed [10] - **Supply**: Total coke output was stable, with a slight decrease in 247 steel mills' output [10] - **Demand**: 247 steel mills' pig iron output decreased slightly [10] - **Inventory**: Total coke inventory decreased slightly; coking plants' inventory increased, while steel mills' and port inventories decreased [10] Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: Some coking coal spot prices changed; contract prices decreased slightly; basis and spreads changed [10] - **Supply**: Coal mine output decreased after the holiday and will gradually recover; imported Mongolian coal prices weakened [10] - **Demand**: Pig iron output and coking plant operation decreased slightly; downstream replenishment demand weakened [10] - **Inventory**: Coal mines' inventory increased, while other sectors' inventories decreased [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, after the holiday, steel prices rebounded slightly. Steel production decreased slightly during the holiday, and inventory increased significantly due to stagnant demand. The supply - demand gap narrowed at the end of September. In October, demand is expected to recover seasonally, and inventory is expected to decline seasonally. The short - term supply and demand are basically balanced, and inventory pressure is not large. Pay attention to the support levels of 3050 and 3200 for rebar and hot - rolled coil January contracts respectively. The unilateral drive is not obvious. For arbitrage, reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread at high levels and convergence of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread are recommended [3]. - For the iron ore industry, on the first trading day after the holiday, iron ore showed an oscillating upward trend. There are many disturbances on the supply side, but the external iron ore swap still follows the domestic price trend. Iron ore has a rebound drive, but the upward space depends on steel prices to give steel mills profits. Short - term, buy iron ore 2601 at low prices, with a price range of 760 - 830, go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil, and buy out - of - the - money call options on iron ore 2601 [5]. - For the coke and coking coal industries, after the holiday, coke and coking coal futures rebounded from the bottom, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The coke market is expected to have another round of price increase, but may face downward pressure due to compressed steel mill profits. The coking coal market is expected to be weak but the futures have a rebound expectation. For coke, buy coking coal 2601 at low prices in the price range of 1550 - 1750, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage on coke, and buy out - of - the - money call options on coke 2601. For coking coal, buy at low prices in the price range of 1080 - 1180, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options on coking coal 2601 [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3240, 3210, and 3320 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts are at 3096, 3159, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3350, 3290, and 3320 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts are at 3293, 3259, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively [2][4]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Plate billet price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. Profits of East, North, and South China hot - rolled coils are 66, 16, and 46 yuan/ton respectively, all decreasing [3]. Supply and Inventory - Daily average pig iron output is 241.5, down 0.3 (- 0.1%). Five - major steel products output is 863.3 (down 3.8, - 0.4%) million tons. Rebar output is 203.4, down 3.6 (- 1.7%). Five - major steel products inventory is 1600.7 (up 127.9, 8.7%) million tons, rebar inventory is 659.6 (up 57.4, 9.5%), and hot - rolled coil inventory is 412.9 (up 32.3, 8.5%) [3]. Demand - Building materials trading volume is 12.0, up 3.9 (49.0%). Five - major steel products apparent demand is 751.4, down 153.4 (- 17.0%) [3]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders and spot prices at Rizhao Port have different changes. The 5 - 9 spread is 20.5, up 1.5 (7.9%); the 9 - 1 spread is - 40.0, unchanged; the 1 - 5 spread is 19.5, down 1.5 (- 7.1%) [5]. Supply - 45 - port weekly arrivals are 2608.7, up 248.2 (10.5%) million tons. Global weekly shipments are 3279.0, down 196.4 (- 5.7%) million tons. National monthly import volume is 10522.5, up 61.5 (0.6%) [5]. Demand - 247 steel mills' weekly average daily pig iron output is 241.5, down 0.3 (- 0.1%). 45 - port weekly average daily port clearance is 0.0, down 336.4 (- 100.0%) million tons. National monthly pig iron and crude steel outputs are 6979.3 and 7736.9 respectively, both decreasing [5]. Inventory - 45 - port inventory decreased by 22.5 (- 0.2%) million tons compared to Monday. 247 steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increased by 300.4 (3.1%). 64 steel mills' inventory available days decreased by 4.0 (- 16.0%) [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industries Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal contract prices and basis have different changes. For example, coke 01 contract is 1654, up 31 (1.9%); coking coal 01 contract is 1164, up 38 (3.4%) [9]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 66.1, unchanged; 247 steel mills' daily average output is 241.8, down 0.6 (- 0.2%) million tons. Coking coal production: Raw coal output is 836.7, down 31.3 (- 3.6%); refined coal product is 426.3, down 19.8 (- 4.4%) million tons [9]. Demand - 247 steel mills' pig iron output is 241.5, down 0.3 (- 0.1%) million tons. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants for coke demand is 66.1, unchanged [9]. Inventory - Coke total inventory is 909.8, down 10.1 (- 1.1%). Coking coal inventory: Fenwei coal mine refined coal inventory increased by 14.1 (14.5%), and other inventories had different changes [9].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - After the holiday, the demand for steel is expected to seasonally recover, and the inventory is expected to maintain a seasonal destocking trend. The short - term supply and demand are basically balanced, and the inventory pressure is not large. The steel price is expected to stabilize. For trading strategies, the unilateral driving force is not obvious. In terms of arbitrage, the monthly spread should be mainly reverse arbitrage at high levels, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar should converge. [1] Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures contracts generally declined. For example, the rebar 05 contract decreased from 3155 to 3128 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract decreased from 3289 to 3253 yuan/ton. [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the profits of various steel products generally declined. For example, the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 35. [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 0.4% to 242.0 tons, and the output of five major steel products increased by 0.2% to 867.1 tons. The electric - furnace output of rebar increased by 13.6%, while the converter output decreased by 1.4%. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.5% to 1472.9 tons, and the rebar inventory decreased by 5.4% to 602.3 tons. [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials transaction volume decreased by 26.5% to 8.0 tons, while the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 3.5% to 904.8 tons, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 9.4% to 241.1 tons. [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - There are many disturbances on the supply side of iron ore, but the upward space is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual arrival situation of BHP's shipments. The trading strategies include short - term long - position trading of iron ore 2601 in the price range of 760 - 830, long - iron - ore and short - hot - rolled coil, and buying out - of - the - money call options of iron ore 2601. [4] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The basis of some iron ore varieties for the 01 contract increased, such as the 01 contract basis of PB powder increased from 40.9 to 44.4 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.6% to 19.0. [4] - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 10.5% to 2608.7 tons, the global shipment volume decreased by 5.7% to 3279.0 tons, and the national monthly import volume increased by 0.6% to 10522.5 tons. [4] - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2% to 241.8 tons, the 45 - port daily average unloading volume decreased by 100.0% to 0.0 tons, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.4% to 6979.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.9% to 7736.9 tons. [4] - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.2% to 13977.79 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.1% to 10036.8 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 4.2% to 25.0 days. [4] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For coke, after the festival, there is still an expectation of a price increase, but it may face downward pressure due to the decline in steel prices. The downward space is limited, and it is regarded as a volatile market. For coking coal, due to the impact of imports and the pre - holiday market, it is also regarded as a volatile market. [8] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts generally declined. For example, the coke 01 contract decreased from 1647 to 1623 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 01 contract decreased from 1154 to 1126 yuan/ton. [8] - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 66.1 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2% to 241.8 tons. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 0.5% to 876.6 tons. [8] - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2% to 241.8 tons, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 66.1 tons. [8] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 0.1% to 919.8 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.9% to 1037.7 tons, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0% to 788.1 tons. [8] - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The calculated supply - demand gap of coke increased slightly from - 4.6 to - 4.5 tons. [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the domestic steel market is expected to move forward in the game between weak reality and strong expectations, likely continuing the pattern of weak shocks. Without an increase in domestic demand, the contribution of demand growth mainly depends on external demand. Domestic prices are suppressed by export prices and do not have the driving conditions for a significant rebound. A substantial turnaround requires stronger domestic demand improvement or external positive drivers. Currently, the spot profit of rebar in some northern regions is in deficit, and the motivation for hot metal conversion is insufficient. The high output of hot-rolled coils may be adjusted through profit contraction, so there is a driving force for the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar to narrow [1][5][60]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - In Q3 2025, the prices of the black series soared and then fluctuated in a wide range. The supply-demand structures of different varieties showed differences, and the prices showed significant differentiation. In the raw material sector, the overall demand remained high, and supply determined the price fluctuation range. Coking coal prices were firm due to supply contraction expectations, with a cumulative increase of over 40% in Q3; coke prices were relatively stable, with a cumulative increase of 23%; iron ore prices were stable overall, with the Platts Index rising 12% in Q3. The demand for scrap steel increased, but the cumulative increase in Q3 was only 3%. In terms of finished products, from January to August 2025, both production and sales of crude steel increased, with the supply growth rate exceeding the demand growth rate. External demand contributed the main demand growth, and domestic demand was significantly differentiated. Building materials consumption decreased by 5% year-on-year, while plate consumption increased by 2.5%. Steel direct exports were stronger than expected, with a 9.6% year-on-year increase from January to August, and there were significant changes in export destinations and varieties. Driven by steel mill profits, production remained at a high level, with a cumulative crude steel production growth rate of 4.6% in the first eight months [5]. 3.2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1. Macro: Policy Intensification to Stabilize Expectations, Economic Momentum to Be Converted - The domestic economy is seeking a balance between policy support and structural transformation, featuring a gradual recovery of domestic demand and continuous pressure on external demand. The GDP growth rate in Q4 is expected to be about 4.6% to support the annual growth target of 5%. On the demand side, there is a differentiation between old and new driving forces. General infrastructure investment maintains high growth, and consumption is expected to recover moderately but lacks strong demand support. External demand faces the risk of negative growth in December due to tariff policy uncertainty in exports to the United States, but diversified trading partners and the advantages of mechanical and electrical products offset some external shocks. On the supply and policy front, industrial production grows rapidly, but the problem of structural overcapacity in the industrial sector remains unresolved. Policy counter-cyclical adjustment is precise, and the CPI is expected to rise to around 0.3% by the end of the year, while the decline of PPI is expected to narrow further [10]. 3.2.2. Steel Demand Analysis - **Real Estate**: From January to August 2025, real estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and sales volume all declined year-on-year, and the decline in sales area and volume widened compared to the first half of the year. The supply of new real estate land decreased, and the inventory pressure was high. Therefore, the steel demand for real estate in Q4 2025 is expected to continue to shrink [17][18]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative growth rate of small-caliber infrastructure investment dropped to 2%, and the single-month decline in August expanded. The improvement of traditional infrastructure demand was limited, mainly due to factors such as debt repayment pressure and reduced consumption intensity. The implementation of physical volume in Q4 needs to be observed. Although the large-caliber infrastructure growth rate is relatively high, which offsets some downward pressure, the overall improvement of infrastructure demand is relatively limited [24]. - **Manufacturing Investment**: In 2025, the central government made comprehensive arrangements for expanding effective investment, and local governments implemented relevant policies to support manufacturing investment. From January to August 2025, the cumulative growth rate of China's manufacturing investment was 5.1%, higher than the overall growth rate of fixed - asset investment but showing a slowdown. The decline in July and August was significant due to factors such as the rapid release of equipment renewal funds in the first half of the year, rising bases, and anti - involution policies. Currently, industrial enterprises are in the active de - stocking stage, and PPI is still in a downward cycle. In Q4 2025, manufacturing investment is expected to continue the downward trend, but demand still has some resilience [31][32]. - **Exports**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative steel export volume was 77.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, stronger than expected. There were significant changes in export destinations and varieties. Exports to some countries decreased, while exports to Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East increased. The export volume of billets increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 292% in the first eight months. It is expected that steel exports will remain at a high level in Q4, but the year-on-year growth rate may decline [36]. 3.2.3. Supply Analysis - From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of pig iron (according to Steel Union data) increased by 3% year-on-year, and the cumulative output of crude steel increased by 0.2% year-on-year. The profitability of steel enterprises improved overall in 2025, but there were significant differences among enterprises. In the first three quarters, steel enterprises' profitability improved due to factors such as falling raw material costs and anti - involution policies. However, in Q4, the industry faces challenges such as weak demand and rising costs [46]. 3.3. Crude Steel Balance Sheet Deduction and Conclusion - The balance sheet data shows that from January to August 2025, the cumulative consumption of crude steel was 628 million tons, an increase of 13.8 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 2.25%; the cumulative production of crude steel was 726 million tons, an increase of 31.93 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 4.6%. The increase in crude steel consumption in the first three quarters was mainly reflected in external demand, and domestic demand was still relatively weak. The supply - demand gap was at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. Although demand improved seasonally in September, the overall increase was limited. Market - based production cuts in Q4 will lead to a new balance between supply and demand [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the supply side, steel supply showed a high - level and stable trend in August with obvious differentiation among varieties. After the military parade, steel mills will resume production, leading to a marginal increase in supply and greater inventory accumulation pressure in September [3][15][38]. - On the demand side, demand will seasonally improve in September but the intensity is expected to be limited. The traditional peak season for construction steel arrives, but the real - estate industry remains weak, and infrastructure investment growth slows down. Plate demand faces pressure from both domestic and foreign markets. Some terminals have restocking needs, promoting a marginal improvement in steel demand [3][26][39]. - In the next month, both supply and demand of steel will increase. Steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and rebounding trend in the short - term, but face significant upward pressure in the medium - term due to poor terminal demand. Rebar is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [3][41]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In August, steel futures fluctuated weakly, and the price center of the main contracts moved down. The market shifted from policy - expectation - led trading to industry fundamentals. Supply pressure remained high, and demand was weak. Although first - tier cities loosened property purchase restrictions, the market boost was limited. In September, demand will be the main driving factor [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Issued a Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Steel Industry - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to address the core contradictions in the steel industry, with economic indicators targeting an average annual increase of about 4% in added value from 2025 - 2026. It also includes measures such as strictly controlling new production capacity, reducing production, and classifying enterprises [14]. 2.2 Steel Inventory Accumulation Accelerated, and Inventory Increased Significantly - As of September 4, the total inventory of five major steel products was 1.501 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 149 million tons or 11%. Construction steel inventory increased significantly, while plate inventory pressure was relatively limited. Social inventory increased more than factory inventory [19]. 2.3 Limited Demand Space in the Peak Season of September - In August, steel demand was weak. In September, demand will seasonally improve but the intensity is limited. The real - estate industry remains weak, and infrastructure investment growth slows down. Plate demand faces pressure from both domestic and foreign markets. Some terminals' restocking needs will drive a marginal improvement in steel demand [26]. 2.4 First - Tier Property Markets Loosened Restrictions Again, with Few Bright Spots in Terminal Demand - Beijing and Shanghai optimized real - estate policies in August, but the policy effects have not yet appeared. The real - estate industry is still in a downturn, dragging down the demand for construction steel. Infrastructure investment growth continued to slow down, and the overall pull on steel demand was limited. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly but remained in the contraction range. The auto industry showed good performance, while home appliance production in September decreased year - on - year. Steel exports remained resilient in the first half of the year, but overseas policy uncertainty is high [31][32][36]. 3. Market Outlook - In the supply side, steel supply will increase after steel mills resume production in September, and inventory accumulation pressure will increase. In the demand side, demand will seasonally improve but the intensity is limited. Overall, steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short - term, with rebar fluctuating in the range of 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [3][38][41].