Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel mills continued to cut production. After the holiday, steel demand improved, but hot - rolled coil production was high with inventory accumulation (though at a slower pace), while rebar shifted to destocking. The black - related sectors were under pressure, but steel prices had low valuations and there was some support below. The "14th Five - Year Plan" and other factors would affect the market. Suggestions included holding long positions in the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, and taking a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and options [4][6][8] Group 3: Summary by Chapters Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, rebar small - sample production was 201.16 tons (-3.62), hot - rolled coil small - sample production was 321.84 tons (-1.45). 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal was 240.95 tons (-0.59), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 33.2% (+4.8). Short - process profits declined, long - process steel profits continued to shrink and turned to losses. Overall, steel production enthusiasm was still strong [4] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent demand was 217.43 tons (+64.25), hot - rolled coil apparent demand was 316.34 tons (+21.33). After the holiday, steel destocking accelerated, but downstream construction sites had difficulties in receiving payments. Real estate demand was weak, the manufacturing PMI was still below the boom - bust line, the auto industry maintained positive growth but with shrinking profits, and the white - goods production schedule declined. Overseas, the US manufacturing was recovering, while the eurozone's manufacturing was weak [4] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased by 18.59 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.29 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 18.46 tons [4] - **Outlook**: After the holiday, steel demand improved with the temperature drop, but the black - related sectors were under pressure. Steel prices had low valuations and there was some support below. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [6] - **Trading Strategies**: Suggest a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and options, and continue to hold long positions in the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [8] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: In Shanghai, the rebar summary price was 3290 yuan (-30), and the hot - rolled coil price was 3290 yuan (-100). In Beijing, the rebar summary price was 3190 yuan (-60), and in Tianjin, the hot - rolled coil price was 3190 yuan (-100) [12] - **Profit**: Long - process steel profits continued to shrink and turned to losses. Short - process steel profits declined, with the East China flat - rate electric furnace profit at - 262.61 yuan (-54.8) and the valley - rate electric furnace profit at - 98 yuan (-55) [4][26] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Trade and Policy**: China announced counter - measures against the US 301 investigation on the shipbuilding industry, and would charge special port fees on US - related ships starting from October 14. In September 2025, China exported 1046.5 tons of steel, a 10.0% increase from the previous month, and the cumulative export from January to September was 8795.5 tons, a 9.2% increase year - on - year [28] - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In September 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.21%. From January to August 2025, China's fixed - asset investment growth rate continued to decline, with real estate investment being a drag on domestic demand, and insufficient new infrastructure investment projects [28][33] - **Real Estate Data**: In 2025, the real estate market continued to be weak, with continuous declines in new construction, completion, and sales areas [4][33] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal production was 240.95 tons (-0.59), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 33.2% (+4.8). Rebar small - sample production was 201.16 tons (-3.62), and hot - rolled coil small - sample production was 321.84 tons (-1.45) [53][57] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent demand was 217.43 tons (+64.25), hot - rolled coil apparent demand was 316.34 tons (+21.33). Construction site funds were tight, and downstream demand was under pressure. The steel export in September was strong, and it was expected to maintain strong resilience in the future [60][72] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased by 18.59 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.29 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 18.46 tons [4]

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a decline in spot prices, with rebar and hot-rolled coil showing different trends in demand and supply dynamics [1][6]. Supply - Iron and steel production remains high, but there is a slight reduction due to environmental factors during the National Day holiday. The output of the five major steel products remains stable year-on-year, with a total output of 8.63 million tons as of October 8, showing a decrease of 40,000 tons month-on-month [3]. - Rebar production is at 2.03 million tons, down 36,000 tons from the previous month, while hot-rolled coil production is at 3.23 million tons, maintaining a high level [3]. Demand - Rebar demand has decreased year-on-year but shows seasonal improvement month-on-month. The holiday effect has led to a drop in demand by 950,000 tons to 1.46 million tons [4]. - Hot-rolled coil demand has increased year-on-year but remained stable month-on-month, with a holiday-related decline of 340,000 tons to 2.91 million tons [4]. Inventory - Inventory levels for the five major steel products have increased by 1.28 million tons to 16 million tons, with rebar inventory rising by 570,000 tons to 6.6 million tons and hot-rolled coil inventory increasing by 320,000 tons to 4.12 million tons [5]. - Despite the increase in inventory, production levels are expected to remain above demand, leading to a projected year-on-year increase in inventory but a month-on-month decline [5]. Cost and Profit - The cost side shows a slight decline in coal mine operating rates and daily output due to the National Day holiday, with current production levels at historically low levels. Steel profits have significantly decreased from their high levels, with the profit ranking from high to low being billet, hot-rolled coil, rebar, and cold-rolled coil [2]. Market Outlook - Although steel demand is weak, there is cost support in the market. The focus for January contracts for rebar and hot-rolled coil is on support levels around 3,000 and 3,200 respectively [6].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report includes three industry period - spot daily reports on steel, iron ore, and coke & coking coal, dated October 10 - 13, 2025 [1][5][10] Group 2: Steel Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Short - term macro sentiment is bearish due to escalating Sino - US friction; industry supply - demand is balanced with low inventory pressure, but poor peak - season demand expectations suppress valuation; there is no trending market in the real - world industry; short - term weak macro sentiment will push black metals down; focus on the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coils in the January contract [2] Section Summaries - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined; some contract prices had small changes; steel billet prices decreased, while slab prices were stable; production costs and profits varied by region and production method [2] - **Production**: Daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.1% to 241.5 tons; five major steel product output decreased by 0.4% to 863.3 tons; rebar output decreased by 1.7% to 203.4 tons; hot - rolled coil output decreased by 0.4% to 323.3 tons [2] - **Inventory**: Five major steel product inventory increased by 8.7% to 1600.7 tons; rebar inventory increased by 9.5% to 659.6 tons; hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.5% to 412.9 tons [2] - **Trading and Demand**: Building material trading volume decreased by 7.1% to 9.1 tons; five major steel product apparent demand decreased by 17.0% to 751.4 tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 36.5% to 153.2 tons; hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 9.1% to 295.0 tons [2] Group 3: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated upwards; supply concerns have weakened; demand from steel mills is weakening; the market will fluctuate within a range due to weak steel prices and falling mill profitability; pay attention to production control policies, Sino - Australian negotiations, and Sino - US tariff wars; consider going long on the 2601 contract at low prices and the spread trade of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coils [5][6] Section Summaries - **Prices and Spreads**: Warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types increased slightly; spot prices at Rizhao Port rose slightly; price indices also increased; some spreads changed [5] - **Supply**: 45 - port weekly arrivals increased by 10.5% to 2608.7 tons; global weekly shipments decreased by 5.7% to 3279.0 tons; monthly national imports increased by 0.6% to 10522.5 tons [5] - **Demand**: 247 steel mills' weekly average pig iron output decreased by 0.1% to 241.5 tons; 45 - port weekly average ore - removal volume decreased by 2.8% to 327.0 tons; monthly national pig iron output decreased by 1.4% to 6979.3 tons; monthly national crude steel output decreased by 2.9% to 7736.9 tons [5] - **Inventory**: 45 - port inventory increased by 0.3% to 14024.5 tons; 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 9.9% to 9046.2 tons; 64 steel mills' available inventory days decreased by 16.0% to 21.0 days [5] Group 4: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View Coke - Last week, coke futures rebounded; spot prices are showing signs of weakness; there is a possibility of the coke futures price falling again; pay attention to production reduction policies in Shanxi and the steel market; consider shorting the 2601 contract at high prices and the spread trade of long iron ore and short coke [10] Coking Coal - Last week, coking coal futures rebounded; spot prices are weakening; the futures price may fall after rising; consider shorting the 2601 contract at high prices and the spread trade of long iron ore and short coking coal [10] Section Summaries Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: Some coke spot prices decreased; contract prices increased slightly; basis and spreads changed [10] - **Supply**: Total coke output was stable, with a slight decrease in 247 steel mills' output [10] - **Demand**: 247 steel mills' pig iron output decreased slightly [10] - **Inventory**: Total coke inventory decreased slightly; coking plants' inventory increased, while steel mills' and port inventories decreased [10] Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: Some coking coal spot prices changed; contract prices decreased slightly; basis and spreads changed [10] - **Supply**: Coal mine output decreased after the holiday and will gradually recover; imported Mongolian coal prices weakened [10] - **Demand**: Pig iron output and coking plant operation decreased slightly; downstream replenishment demand weakened [10] - **Inventory**: Coal mines' inventory increased, while other sectors' inventories decreased [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, after the holiday, steel prices rebounded slightly. Steel production decreased slightly during the holiday, and inventory increased significantly due to stagnant demand. The supply - demand gap narrowed at the end of September. In October, demand is expected to recover seasonally, and inventory is expected to decline seasonally. The short - term supply and demand are basically balanced, and inventory pressure is not large. Pay attention to the support levels of 3050 and 3200 for rebar and hot - rolled coil January contracts respectively. The unilateral drive is not obvious. For arbitrage, reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread at high levels and convergence of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread are recommended [3]. - For the iron ore industry, on the first trading day after the holiday, iron ore showed an oscillating upward trend. There are many disturbances on the supply side, but the external iron ore swap still follows the domestic price trend. Iron ore has a rebound drive, but the upward space depends on steel prices to give steel mills profits. Short - term, buy iron ore 2601 at low prices, with a price range of 760 - 830, go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil, and buy out - of - the - money call options on iron ore 2601 [5]. - For the coke and coking coal industries, after the holiday, coke and coking coal futures rebounded from the bottom, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The coke market is expected to have another round of price increase, but may face downward pressure due to compressed steel mill profits. The coking coal market is expected to be weak but the futures have a rebound expectation. For coke, buy coking coal 2601 at low prices in the price range of 1550 - 1750, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage on coke, and buy out - of - the - money call options on coke 2601. For coking coal, buy at low prices in the price range of 1080 - 1180, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options on coking coal 2601 [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3240, 3210, and 3320 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts are at 3096, 3159, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3350, 3290, and 3320 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts are at 3293, 3259, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively [2][4]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Plate billet price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. Profits of East, North, and South China hot - rolled coils are 66, 16, and 46 yuan/ton respectively, all decreasing [3]. Supply and Inventory - Daily average pig iron output is 241.5, down 0.3 (- 0.1%). Five - major steel products output is 863.3 (down 3.8, - 0.4%) million tons. Rebar output is 203.4, down 3.6 (- 1.7%). Five - major steel products inventory is 1600.7 (up 127.9, 8.7%) million tons, rebar inventory is 659.6 (up 57.4, 9.5%), and hot - rolled coil inventory is 412.9 (up 32.3, 8.5%) [3]. Demand - Building materials trading volume is 12.0, up 3.9 (49.0%). Five - major steel products apparent demand is 751.4, down 153.4 (- 17.0%) [3]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders and spot prices at Rizhao Port have different changes. The 5 - 9 spread is 20.5, up 1.5 (7.9%); the 9 - 1 spread is - 40.0, unchanged; the 1 - 5 spread is 19.5, down 1.5 (- 7.1%) [5]. Supply - 45 - port weekly arrivals are 2608.7, up 248.2 (10.5%) million tons. Global weekly shipments are 3279.0, down 196.4 (- 5.7%) million tons. National monthly import volume is 10522.5, up 61.5 (0.6%) [5]. Demand - 247 steel mills' weekly average daily pig iron output is 241.5, down 0.3 (- 0.1%). 45 - port weekly average daily port clearance is 0.0, down 336.4 (- 100.0%) million tons. National monthly pig iron and crude steel outputs are 6979.3 and 7736.9 respectively, both decreasing [5]. Inventory - 45 - port inventory decreased by 22.5 (- 0.2%) million tons compared to Monday. 247 steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increased by 300.4 (3.1%). 64 steel mills' inventory available days decreased by 4.0 (- 16.0%) [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industries Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal contract prices and basis have different changes. For example, coke 01 contract is 1654, up 31 (1.9%); coking coal 01 contract is 1164, up 38 (3.4%) [9]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 66.1, unchanged; 247 steel mills' daily average output is 241.8, down 0.6 (- 0.2%) million tons. Coking coal production: Raw coal output is 836.7, down 31.3 (- 3.6%); refined coal product is 426.3, down 19.8 (- 4.4%) million tons [9]. Demand - 247 steel mills' pig iron output is 241.5, down 0.3 (- 0.1%) million tons. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants for coke demand is 66.1, unchanged [9]. Inventory - Coke total inventory is 909.8, down 10.1 (- 1.1%). Coking coal inventory: Fenwei coal mine refined coal inventory increased by 14.1 (14.5%), and other inventories had different changes [9].

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年10月9日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3230 | 3240 | -10 | 158 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3220 | -20 | 128 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3310 | 3320 | -10 | 238 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3128 | 3155 | -27 | 102 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2989 | 3005 | -16 | 241 | | | | | | -25 | 158 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3072 | 3097 | | | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3330 | 3350 | -20 | 17 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3280 | 3290 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the domestic steel market is expected to move forward in the game between weak reality and strong expectations, likely continuing the pattern of weak shocks. Without an increase in domestic demand, the contribution of demand growth mainly depends on external demand. Domestic prices are suppressed by export prices and do not have the driving conditions for a significant rebound. A substantial turnaround requires stronger domestic demand improvement or external positive drivers. Currently, the spot profit of rebar in some northern regions is in deficit, and the motivation for hot metal conversion is insufficient. The high output of hot-rolled coils may be adjusted through profit contraction, so there is a driving force for the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar to narrow [1][5][60]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - In Q3 2025, the prices of the black series soared and then fluctuated in a wide range. The supply-demand structures of different varieties showed differences, and the prices showed significant differentiation. In the raw material sector, the overall demand remained high, and supply determined the price fluctuation range. Coking coal prices were firm due to supply contraction expectations, with a cumulative increase of over 40% in Q3; coke prices were relatively stable, with a cumulative increase of 23%; iron ore prices were stable overall, with the Platts Index rising 12% in Q3. The demand for scrap steel increased, but the cumulative increase in Q3 was only 3%. In terms of finished products, from January to August 2025, both production and sales of crude steel increased, with the supply growth rate exceeding the demand growth rate. External demand contributed the main demand growth, and domestic demand was significantly differentiated. Building materials consumption decreased by 5% year-on-year, while plate consumption increased by 2.5%. Steel direct exports were stronger than expected, with a 9.6% year-on-year increase from January to August, and there were significant changes in export destinations and varieties. Driven by steel mill profits, production remained at a high level, with a cumulative crude steel production growth rate of 4.6% in the first eight months [5]. 3.2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1. Macro: Policy Intensification to Stabilize Expectations, Economic Momentum to Be Converted - The domestic economy is seeking a balance between policy support and structural transformation, featuring a gradual recovery of domestic demand and continuous pressure on external demand. The GDP growth rate in Q4 is expected to be about 4.6% to support the annual growth target of 5%. On the demand side, there is a differentiation between old and new driving forces. General infrastructure investment maintains high growth, and consumption is expected to recover moderately but lacks strong demand support. External demand faces the risk of negative growth in December due to tariff policy uncertainty in exports to the United States, but diversified trading partners and the advantages of mechanical and electrical products offset some external shocks. On the supply and policy front, industrial production grows rapidly, but the problem of structural overcapacity in the industrial sector remains unresolved. Policy counter-cyclical adjustment is precise, and the CPI is expected to rise to around 0.3% by the end of the year, while the decline of PPI is expected to narrow further [10]. 3.2.2. Steel Demand Analysis - **Real Estate**: From January to August 2025, real estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and sales volume all declined year-on-year, and the decline in sales area and volume widened compared to the first half of the year. The supply of new real estate land decreased, and the inventory pressure was high. Therefore, the steel demand for real estate in Q4 2025 is expected to continue to shrink [17][18]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative growth rate of small-caliber infrastructure investment dropped to 2%, and the single-month decline in August expanded. The improvement of traditional infrastructure demand was limited, mainly due to factors such as debt repayment pressure and reduced consumption intensity. The implementation of physical volume in Q4 needs to be observed. Although the large-caliber infrastructure growth rate is relatively high, which offsets some downward pressure, the overall improvement of infrastructure demand is relatively limited [24]. - **Manufacturing Investment**: In 2025, the central government made comprehensive arrangements for expanding effective investment, and local governments implemented relevant policies to support manufacturing investment. From January to August 2025, the cumulative growth rate of China's manufacturing investment was 5.1%, higher than the overall growth rate of fixed - asset investment but showing a slowdown. The decline in July and August was significant due to factors such as the rapid release of equipment renewal funds in the first half of the year, rising bases, and anti - involution policies. Currently, industrial enterprises are in the active de - stocking stage, and PPI is still in a downward cycle. In Q4 2025, manufacturing investment is expected to continue the downward trend, but demand still has some resilience [31][32]. - **Exports**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative steel export volume was 77.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, stronger than expected. There were significant changes in export destinations and varieties. Exports to some countries decreased, while exports to Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East increased. The export volume of billets increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 292% in the first eight months. It is expected that steel exports will remain at a high level in Q4, but the year-on-year growth rate may decline [36]. 3.2.3. Supply Analysis - From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of pig iron (according to Steel Union data) increased by 3% year-on-year, and the cumulative output of crude steel increased by 0.2% year-on-year. The profitability of steel enterprises improved overall in 2025, but there were significant differences among enterprises. In the first three quarters, steel enterprises' profitability improved due to factors such as falling raw material costs and anti - involution policies. However, in Q4, the industry faces challenges such as weak demand and rising costs [46]. 3.3. Crude Steel Balance Sheet Deduction and Conclusion - The balance sheet data shows that from January to August 2025, the cumulative consumption of crude steel was 628 million tons, an increase of 13.8 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 2.25%; the cumulative production of crude steel was 726 million tons, an increase of 31.93 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 4.6%. The increase in crude steel consumption in the first three quarters was mainly reflected in external demand, and domestic demand was still relatively weak. The supply - demand gap was at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. Although demand improved seasonally in September, the overall increase was limited. Market - based production cuts in Q4 will lead to a new balance between supply and demand [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the supply side, steel supply showed a high - level and stable trend in August with obvious differentiation among varieties. After the military parade, steel mills will resume production, leading to a marginal increase in supply and greater inventory accumulation pressure in September [3][15][38]. - On the demand side, demand will seasonally improve in September but the intensity is expected to be limited. The traditional peak season for construction steel arrives, but the real - estate industry remains weak, and infrastructure investment growth slows down. Plate demand faces pressure from both domestic and foreign markets. Some terminals have restocking needs, promoting a marginal improvement in steel demand [3][26][39]. - In the next month, both supply and demand of steel will increase. Steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and rebounding trend in the short - term, but face significant upward pressure in the medium - term due to poor terminal demand. Rebar is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [3][41]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In August, steel futures fluctuated weakly, and the price center of the main contracts moved down. The market shifted from policy - expectation - led trading to industry fundamentals. Supply pressure remained high, and demand was weak. Although first - tier cities loosened property purchase restrictions, the market boost was limited. In September, demand will be the main driving factor [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Issued a Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Steel Industry - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to address the core contradictions in the steel industry, with economic indicators targeting an average annual increase of about 4% in added value from 2025 - 2026. It also includes measures such as strictly controlling new production capacity, reducing production, and classifying enterprises [14]. 2.2 Steel Inventory Accumulation Accelerated, and Inventory Increased Significantly - As of September 4, the total inventory of five major steel products was 1.501 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 149 million tons or 11%. Construction steel inventory increased significantly, while plate inventory pressure was relatively limited. Social inventory increased more than factory inventory [19]. 2.3 Limited Demand Space in the Peak Season of September - In August, steel demand was weak. In September, demand will seasonally improve but the intensity is limited. The real - estate industry remains weak, and infrastructure investment growth slows down. Plate demand faces pressure from both domestic and foreign markets. Some terminals' restocking needs will drive a marginal improvement in steel demand [26]. 2.4 First - Tier Property Markets Loosened Restrictions Again, with Few Bright Spots in Terminal Demand - Beijing and Shanghai optimized real - estate policies in August, but the policy effects have not yet appeared. The real - estate industry is still in a downturn, dragging down the demand for construction steel. Infrastructure investment growth continued to slow down, and the overall pull on steel demand was limited. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly but remained in the contraction range. The auto industry showed good performance, while home appliance production in September decreased year - on - year. Steel exports remained resilient in the first half of the year, but overseas policy uncertainty is high [31][32][36]. 3. Market Outlook - In the supply side, steel supply will increase after steel mills resume production in September, and inventory accumulation pressure will increase. In the demand side, demand will seasonally improve but the intensity is limited. Overall, steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short - term, with rebar fluctuating in the range of 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [3][38][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. There is support due to certain repair in steel demand, high hot metal production, and strong steel exports. However, there is also short - term pressure from factors such as expected hot metal production cuts, continuous steel inventory accumulation, and a decline in coal daily consumption in August. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand in September, as well as overseas tariffs and domestic macro and industrial policies [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the overall supply - demand is relatively balanced. The coking coal price has a callback in the futures market, and the coke's seventh - round price increase has partially landed. In the medium term, the coking coal price center will gradually rise, and one can wait for adjustments and then go long on far - month contracts at low prices [11]. - The iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The factors driving price increases are weakening, and the market may shift to the relatively rapid weakening of terminal steel demand [16]. - For ferroalloys, both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have a bottom - oscillating trend recently. The high - premium risk has been largely released, and the supply and demand sides have different characteristics that need attention [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Related Information - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in August was 55.4. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased by 11,000 to 235,000 in the week ending August 16. In July 2025, China's excavator output was 24,732 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. From January to July 2025, China's excavator output was 205,299 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [2]. - The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,300 yuan (+10), in Beijing was 3,260 yuan (-), the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,420 yuan (-10), and in Tianjin was 3,370 yuan (-10) [3]. Logic Analysis - The black - metal sector maintained an oscillating trend in the night session yesterday. Steel production resumed this week, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil production increasing. The overall inventory of the five major steel products accumulated, but the accumulation speed slowed down. Steel exports remained strong, and building - material demand rebounded from the bottom. Steel demand has shown some repair, and high hot - metal production and strong exports support steel prices. However, with the approaching military parade, hot - metal production is expected to decrease next week, and there is short - term pressure on steel prices. But the production - cut window is short, and the downside space is limited. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The steel price maintains a bottom - oscillating trend. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to enter into a long - position in the basis when it is low and continue to hold. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from last week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points from last year. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week and an increase of 4.30 percentage points from last year. The steel - mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from last week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points from last year. The daily average hot - metal output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 0.34 million tons from last week and an increase of 1.189 million tons from last year. - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The daily average raw - coal output was 1.912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 tons. The raw - coal inventory was 4.716 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,000 tons. The daily average clean - coal output was 771,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. The clean - coal inventory was 2.756 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons [9]. - The warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) in Lvliang, Shanxi was 1,596 yuan/ton, in Rizhao Port was 1,616 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (dry - quenched) in Lvliang, Shanxi was 1,700 yuan/ton. The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi coal was 1,180 yuan/ton, Mongolian No. 5 coal was 1,099 yuan/ton, Mongolian No. 3 coal was 1,063 yuan/ton, and Australian coal (port spot) was 1,235 yuan/ton [10]. Logic Analysis - The hot - metal production increased slightly this week, and the steel mills' demand for raw materials was resilient. The coal - mine production also increased slightly, but considering factors such as over - production inspection and safety supervision, the resumption of production is expected to be limited. The overall commodity sentiment has cooled recently, and the coking - coal price in the futures market has corrected. In the spot market, the coking - coal price has both increases and decreases, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. The seventh - round price increase of coke has partially landed and is expected to be fully implemented in the next two days. In the medium term, due to relevant policies on over - production inspection and safety supervision, the supply of coal will be disturbed, and the coking - coal price center will gradually rise [11]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait for adjustments and then go long on far - month contracts at low prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. - Spot - futures: Wait and see [13]. Iron Ore Related Information - The EU and the US issued a joint statement, announcing the details of the new trade agreement reached in July. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber. The EU promised to cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. - As of August 2025, 20 troubled real - estate enterprises' debt restructuring and reorganization have been approved, with a total debt - resolution scale of over 1.2 trillion yuan. - The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 769 yuan (+2), converted to the standard product was 810 yuan; the spot price of Super Special fines was 650 yuan (+5), converted to the standard product was 876 yuan; the spot price of Carajas fines was 881 yuan (+3), converted to the standard product was 838 yuan. The mainstream pricing product was PB fines with a spot price of 769 yuan (+2) and a standard - product price of 810 yuan, and the basis of the main contract of iron ore 01 was 38 [14]. Logic Analysis - The iron ore price oscillated narrowly in the night session. Fundamentally, the shipment of mainstream mines was stable, and it was difficult to see a large increase year - on - year. The shipment of non - mainstream mines in August continued to be at a high level year - on - year and was expected to contribute a certain increase. On the demand side, the growth rate of manufacturing and infrastructure investment slowed down significantly in July. The weakening of manufacturing may be due to the relatively fast progress of equipment - renewal funds in the first half of the year and the slowdown in the second half. Compared with the steel demand in the first half of the year, the demand for construction steel continued to be weak. The steel demand in the manufacturing industry increased by more than 7% year - on - year in the first half of the year, but it has weakened significantly in the third quarter so far, suppressing the current terminal steel demand. Overall, the factors driving the price increase have weakened, and the market may shift to the relatively rapid weakening of terminal steel demand, so the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15][16]. Trading Strategies No specific trading strategies for iron ore are provided in a complete form in the text. Ferroalloys Related Information - From January to July 2025, the total domestic billet export volume was 747,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 309.72%. In July, the domestic billet export volume was 157,980 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.37% and a year - on - year increase of 349.07%. - On the 21st, the semi - carbonate price at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree, Gabon lump was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, CML Australian lump was 41.5 - 42 yuan/ton - degree, South32 Australian lump was 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, South African high - iron ore was 29.8 yuan/ton - degree, and South African medium - iron lump was 36.5 yuan/ton - degree [18]. Logic Analysis - For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable with a slight decline on the 21st, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the production has been increasing recently. Pay attention to whether the resumption - of - production trend will stop after the price decline. On the demand side, the sample steel production still remained at a high level this week, supporting the demand for raw materials. After the significant price decline this week, the futures price is approaching the cost of some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [18]. - For silicomanganese, the manganese - ore spot price was stable with a slight decline on the 21st, and the price of Gabon lump at Tianjin Port decreased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree. The overall silicomanganese spot price declined, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. On the supply side, also pay attention to whether the current resumption - of - production rhythm will be interrupted after the price decline. On the demand side, the apparent demand of the rebar sample increased slightly this week and has not yet formed a downward trend. At the current price, the high - premium risk has been largely released, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [19]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The futures price is approaching the cost of some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently. - Arbitrage: Enter into a long - position in the basis when it is low. - Options: Sell a straddle option combination at high prices [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market sentiment has weakened, with steel prices oscillating downward. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, and the supply - demand pattern is generally loose. The coking coal and coke markets are also in a state of oscillation, with the supply of coke expected to tighten. The power coal market shows a weakening demand, and the pit - mouth coal prices have slightly declined [1][3][5][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3416 yuan/ton. The spot steel trading was generally weak, with speculative trading being poor. The production and sales of building materials continued to decline, and inventory increased. The production and sales of plates rebounded, but high steel prices affected export orders [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The market needs to control steel supply by compressing profits to re - balance supply and demand. However, due to the relatively healthy raw material supply - demand situation, the cost support for steel is strong, so the steel price adjustment space is limited [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to be oscillating and weak [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties remained stable. The trading volume of port iron ore increased by 14.66% to 115.>. .1 . . . . .. . .1. .. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply increased, while the trading volume of forward - spot iron ore decreased by 7.88. The supply of iron ore increased this week, and the inventory decreased. The supply - demand contradiction has increased in the short - term, and the supply - demand pattern is generally loose in the long - term [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to be oscillating [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures contracts oscillated. Some coking enterprises received environmental protection requirements for 30 - 40% production cuts from August 20th to September 3rd, and steel mills were required to cut production by 20 - 40% from August 30. to September 3rd. The coking coal price was generally stable with a weak trend, and the price of imported Mongolian coal decreased [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coke is expected to tighten at the end of the month, and the coking plants started the seventh round of price hikes. The supply of coking coal is tight, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but the inventory is still at a low level [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke strategies are to be oscillating [7]. Power Coal - **Market Analysis**: The pit - mouth coal prices started to decline, and the demand for thermal coal decreased. The port market sentiment declined, and the import coal had a price advantage [8]. - **Demand and Logic**: The supply in the production area is slowly recovering. In the short - term, the price will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply pattern is loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 406,100 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. The social and steel mill inventories both increased by nearly 3% week - on - week. Specifically, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline. Its steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and total inventory decreased by 5.5%. However, its apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, a record low for the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [2]. - Overall, this week's industrial data was poor, with obvious characteristics of the off - season demand. Seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall suppressed the consumption of building materials. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel products accelerated slightly. In the short term, the steel market shows a pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is still not strong, and at the same time, raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate at a relatively high level. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips. For the rebar 2510 contract, the first support range is 3100 - 3150 [2]. - In the future, steel prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Trends Review - Futures market: This week, the main rebar RB2510 contract fluctuated slightly, closing at 3,189 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a position of 1.6365 million lots, an increase of 8,300 lots. The main hot - rolled coil HC2510 contract also fluctuated slightly, closing at 3,432 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a position of 1.2918 million lots, a decrease of 136,700 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar moved down. As of August 14, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,290 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot - rolled coils also moved down. As of August 14, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,420 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar RB2510 contract against the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 131 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main hot - rolled coil HC2510 contract against the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 78 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 243 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [13]. Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 34,000 tons week - on - week and an increase of 118,900 tons year - on - year [21]. - The weekly output of the five major steel products totaled 871,630 tons, an increase of 2,420 tons week - on - week. Among them, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline [21]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6% to 65.8%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% week - on - week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 34,000 tons to 2.4066 million tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2% [21]. 2.2 Demand - The State Council has approved a hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan. The project has officially started, and the future demand for steel in infrastructure construction is promising. In addition, the truce period for Sino - US tariffs has been extended by 90 days, and the tariffs on China remain the same as before. There are signs of easing in Sino - US trade frictions, and there are expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the path for the realization of the off - season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience [32]. 2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel in major cities across the country was 990,840 tons, an increase of 28,340 tons week - on - week. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 425,130 tons, an increase of 12,270 tons week - on - week. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 1.41597 million tons, an increase of 40,610 tons week - on - week. The overall inventory is at a low level for the same period, and steel mills are in a relative de - stocking stage, transferring inventory downstream. However, the overall de - stocking trend has ended, and inventory has begun to accumulate [38]. 2.4 Profit - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6% to 65.8%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% week - on - week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 34,000 tons to 2.4066 million tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2% [46]. - The supply and circulation of scrap steel were tight this week, and price support remained. However, the improvement in downstream terminal demand during the off - season was limited, and the upward trend of steel prices gradually slowed down. The spreads between rebar and scrap steel and between hot - rolled coils and scrap steel first expanded and then narrowed, and the profitability of steel mills also began to decline slightly. As a result, the daily average crude steel output of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country decreased by 0.86% week - on - week. However, as of August 15, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country increased by 0.49% to 57.39%, and the average operating rate increased by 1.49% to 76.39% [48]. 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials moved up. Among them, the price of Tangshan steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,089 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Tangshan increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1,420 yuan/ton [56]. Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 40,610 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. The social and steel mill inventories both increased by nearly 3% week - on - week. Specifically, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline. Its steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and total inventory decreased by 5.5%. However, its apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, a record low for the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [59]. - Overall, this week's industrial data was poor, with obvious characteristics of the off - season demand. Seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall suppressed the consumption of building materials. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel products accelerated slightly. In the short term, the steel market shows a pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is still not strong, and at the same time, raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate at a relatively high level. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips. For the rebar 2510 contract, the first support range is 3100 - 3150 [59].