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黑色金属早报-20250822
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 07:57
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. There is support due to certain repair in steel demand, high hot metal production, and strong steel exports. However, there is also short - term pressure from factors such as expected hot metal production cuts, continuous steel inventory accumulation, and a decline in coal daily consumption in August. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand in September, as well as overseas tariffs and domestic macro and industrial policies [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the overall supply - demand is relatively balanced. The coking coal price has a callback in the futures market, and the coke's seventh - round price increase has partially landed. In the medium term, the coking coal price center will gradually rise, and one can wait for adjustments and then go long on far - month contracts at low prices [11]. - The iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The factors driving price increases are weakening, and the market may shift to the relatively rapid weakening of terminal steel demand [16]. - For ferroalloys, both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have a bottom - oscillating trend recently. The high - premium risk has been largely released, and the supply and demand sides have different characteristics that need attention [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Related Information - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in August was 55.4. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased by 11,000 to 235,000 in the week ending August 16. In July 2025, China's excavator output was 24,732 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. From January to July 2025, China's excavator output was 205,299 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [2]. - The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,300 yuan (+10), in Beijing was 3,260 yuan (-), the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,420 yuan (-10), and in Tianjin was 3,370 yuan (-10) [3]. Logic Analysis - The black - metal sector maintained an oscillating trend in the night session yesterday. Steel production resumed this week, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil production increasing. The overall inventory of the five major steel products accumulated, but the accumulation speed slowed down. Steel exports remained strong, and building - material demand rebounded from the bottom. Steel demand has shown some repair, and high hot - metal production and strong exports support steel prices. However, with the approaching military parade, hot - metal production is expected to decrease next week, and there is short - term pressure on steel prices. But the production - cut window is short, and the downside space is limited. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The steel price maintains a bottom - oscillating trend. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to enter into a long - position in the basis when it is low and continue to hold. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from last week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points from last year. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week and an increase of 4.30 percentage points from last year. The steel - mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from last week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points from last year. The daily average hot - metal output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 0.34 million tons from last week and an increase of 1.189 million tons from last year. - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The daily average raw - coal output was 1.912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 tons. The raw - coal inventory was 4.716 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,000 tons. The daily average clean - coal output was 771,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. The clean - coal inventory was 2.756 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons [9]. - The warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) in Lvliang, Shanxi was 1,596 yuan/ton, in Rizhao Port was 1,616 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (dry - quenched) in Lvliang, Shanxi was 1,700 yuan/ton. The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi coal was 1,180 yuan/ton, Mongolian No. 5 coal was 1,099 yuan/ton, Mongolian No. 3 coal was 1,063 yuan/ton, and Australian coal (port spot) was 1,235 yuan/ton [10]. Logic Analysis - The hot - metal production increased slightly this week, and the steel mills' demand for raw materials was resilient. The coal - mine production also increased slightly, but considering factors such as over - production inspection and safety supervision, the resumption of production is expected to be limited. The overall commodity sentiment has cooled recently, and the coking - coal price in the futures market has corrected. In the spot market, the coking - coal price has both increases and decreases, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. The seventh - round price increase of coke has partially landed and is expected to be fully implemented in the next two days. In the medium term, due to relevant policies on over - production inspection and safety supervision, the supply of coal will be disturbed, and the coking - coal price center will gradually rise [11]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait for adjustments and then go long on far - month contracts at low prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. - Spot - futures: Wait and see [13]. Iron Ore Related Information - The EU and the US issued a joint statement, announcing the details of the new trade agreement reached in July. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber. The EU promised to cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. - As of August 2025, 20 troubled real - estate enterprises' debt restructuring and reorganization have been approved, with a total debt - resolution scale of over 1.2 trillion yuan. - The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 769 yuan (+2), converted to the standard product was 810 yuan; the spot price of Super Special fines was 650 yuan (+5), converted to the standard product was 876 yuan; the spot price of Carajas fines was 881 yuan (+3), converted to the standard product was 838 yuan. The mainstream pricing product was PB fines with a spot price of 769 yuan (+2) and a standard - product price of 810 yuan, and the basis of the main contract of iron ore 01 was 38 [14]. Logic Analysis - The iron ore price oscillated narrowly in the night session. Fundamentally, the shipment of mainstream mines was stable, and it was difficult to see a large increase year - on - year. The shipment of non - mainstream mines in August continued to be at a high level year - on - year and was expected to contribute a certain increase. On the demand side, the growth rate of manufacturing and infrastructure investment slowed down significantly in July. The weakening of manufacturing may be due to the relatively fast progress of equipment - renewal funds in the first half of the year and the slowdown in the second half. Compared with the steel demand in the first half of the year, the demand for construction steel continued to be weak. The steel demand in the manufacturing industry increased by more than 7% year - on - year in the first half of the year, but it has weakened significantly in the third quarter so far, suppressing the current terminal steel demand. Overall, the factors driving the price increase have weakened, and the market may shift to the relatively rapid weakening of terminal steel demand, so the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15][16]. Trading Strategies No specific trading strategies for iron ore are provided in a complete form in the text. Ferroalloys Related Information - From January to July 2025, the total domestic billet export volume was 747,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 309.72%. In July, the domestic billet export volume was 157,980 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.37% and a year - on - year increase of 349.07%. - On the 21st, the semi - carbonate price at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree, Gabon lump was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, CML Australian lump was 41.5 - 42 yuan/ton - degree, South32 Australian lump was 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, South African high - iron ore was 29.8 yuan/ton - degree, and South African medium - iron lump was 36.5 yuan/ton - degree [18]. Logic Analysis - For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable with a slight decline on the 21st, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the production has been increasing recently. Pay attention to whether the resumption - of - production trend will stop after the price decline. On the demand side, the sample steel production still remained at a high level this week, supporting the demand for raw materials. After the significant price decline this week, the futures price is approaching the cost of some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [18]. - For silicomanganese, the manganese - ore spot price was stable with a slight decline on the 21st, and the price of Gabon lump at Tianjin Port decreased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree. The overall silicomanganese spot price declined, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. On the supply side, also pay attention to whether the current resumption - of - production rhythm will be interrupted after the price decline. On the demand side, the apparent demand of the rebar sample increased slightly this week and has not yet formed a downward trend. At the current price, the high - premium risk has been largely released, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [19]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The futures price is approaching the cost of some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently. - Arbitrage: Enter into a long - position in the basis when it is low. - Options: Sell a straddle option combination at high prices [20].
黑色建材日报:市场情绪转弱,钢价震荡下行-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market sentiment has weakened, with steel prices oscillating downward. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, and the supply - demand pattern is generally loose. The coking coal and coke markets are also in a state of oscillation, with the supply of coke expected to tighten. The power coal market shows a weakening demand, and the pit - mouth coal prices have slightly declined [1][3][5][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3416 yuan/ton. The spot steel trading was generally weak, with speculative trading being poor. The production and sales of building materials continued to decline, and inventory increased. The production and sales of plates rebounded, but high steel prices affected export orders [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The market needs to control steel supply by compressing profits to re - balance supply and demand. However, due to the relatively healthy raw material supply - demand situation, the cost support for steel is strong, so the steel price adjustment space is limited [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to be oscillating and weak [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties remained stable. The trading volume of port iron ore increased by 14.66% to 115.>. .1 . . . . .. . .1. .. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply increased, while the trading volume of forward - spot iron ore decreased by 7.88. The supply of iron ore increased this week, and the inventory decreased. The supply - demand contradiction has increased in the short - term, and the supply - demand pattern is generally loose in the long - term [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to be oscillating [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures contracts oscillated. Some coking enterprises received environmental protection requirements for 30 - 40% production cuts from August 20th to September 3rd, and steel mills were required to cut production by 20 - 40% from August 30. to September 3rd. The coking coal price was generally stable with a weak trend, and the price of imported Mongolian coal decreased [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coke is expected to tighten at the end of the month, and the coking plants started the seventh round of price hikes. The supply of coking coal is tight, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but the inventory is still at a low level [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke strategies are to be oscillating [7]. Power Coal - **Market Analysis**: The pit - mouth coal prices started to decline, and the demand for thermal coal decreased. The port market sentiment declined, and the import coal had a price advantage [8]. - **Demand and Logic**: The supply in the production area is slowly recovering. In the short - term, the price will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply pattern is loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8].
钢材周度策略报告:供稳需弱格局,钢价回落调整-20250818
Hua An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:01
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 406,100 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. The social and steel mill inventories both increased by nearly 3% week - on - week. Specifically, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline. Its steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and total inventory decreased by 5.5%. However, its apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, a record low for the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [2]. - Overall, this week's industrial data was poor, with obvious characteristics of the off - season demand. Seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall suppressed the consumption of building materials. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel products accelerated slightly. In the short term, the steel market shows a pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is still not strong, and at the same time, raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate at a relatively high level. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips. For the rebar 2510 contract, the first support range is 3100 - 3150 [2]. - In the future, steel prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Trends Review - Futures market: This week, the main rebar RB2510 contract fluctuated slightly, closing at 3,189 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a position of 1.6365 million lots, an increase of 8,300 lots. The main hot - rolled coil HC2510 contract also fluctuated slightly, closing at 3,432 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a position of 1.2918 million lots, a decrease of 136,700 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar moved down. As of August 14, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,290 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot - rolled coils also moved down. As of August 14, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,420 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar RB2510 contract against the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 131 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main hot - rolled coil HC2510 contract against the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 78 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 243 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [13]. Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 34,000 tons week - on - week and an increase of 118,900 tons year - on - year [21]. - The weekly output of the five major steel products totaled 871,630 tons, an increase of 2,420 tons week - on - week. Among them, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline [21]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6% to 65.8%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% week - on - week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 34,000 tons to 2.4066 million tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2% [21]. 2.2 Demand - The State Council has approved a hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan. The project has officially started, and the future demand for steel in infrastructure construction is promising. In addition, the truce period for Sino - US tariffs has been extended by 90 days, and the tariffs on China remain the same as before. There are signs of easing in Sino - US trade frictions, and there are expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the path for the realization of the off - season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience [32]. 2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel in major cities across the country was 990,840 tons, an increase of 28,340 tons week - on - week. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 425,130 tons, an increase of 12,270 tons week - on - week. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 1.41597 million tons, an increase of 40,610 tons week - on - week. The overall inventory is at a low level for the same period, and steel mills are in a relative de - stocking stage, transferring inventory downstream. However, the overall de - stocking trend has ended, and inventory has begun to accumulate [38]. 2.4 Profit - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6% to 65.8%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% week - on - week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 34,000 tons to 2.4066 million tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2% [46]. - The supply and circulation of scrap steel were tight this week, and price support remained. However, the improvement in downstream terminal demand during the off - season was limited, and the upward trend of steel prices gradually slowed down. The spreads between rebar and scrap steel and between hot - rolled coils and scrap steel first expanded and then narrowed, and the profitability of steel mills also began to decline slightly. As a result, the daily average crude steel output of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country decreased by 0.86% week - on - week. However, as of August 15, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country increased by 0.49% to 57.39%, and the average operating rate increased by 1.49% to 76.39% [48]. 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials moved up. Among them, the price of Tangshan steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,089 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Tangshan increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1,420 yuan/ton [56]. Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 40,610 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. The social and steel mill inventories both increased by nearly 3% week - on - week. Specifically, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline. Its steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and total inventory decreased by 5.5%. However, its apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, a record low for the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [59]. - Overall, this week's industrial data was poor, with obvious characteristics of the off - season demand. Seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall suppressed the consumption of building materials. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel products accelerated slightly. In the short term, the steel market shows a pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is still not strong, and at the same time, raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate at a relatively high level. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips. For the rebar 2510 contract, the first support range is 3100 - 3150 [59].
黑色金属周报:钢材:钢价低位反弹,基差修复-20250609
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 12:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot market for finished steel products has entered the traditional off - season for consumption, and there may be a seasonal inventory build - up trend in the later period. On the supply side, the production of strip products such as hot - rolled coils remains at a relatively high level due to profit incentives, while the production of rebar continues to decline. The consumption is slightly stronger than the seasonal average, and the supply - demand structure is conducive to the continued narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. In terms of cost, recent policy expectations on the raw material side have caused disturbances, and steel prices have rebounded slightly from the low level. It is expected that the short - term trend will mainly focus on basis repair, and the rebound pressure should be monitored between the long - process cost (2970) and the off - peak electricity cost (3125) [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Conclusion and Balance Sheet - This week, domestic steel spot prices rebounded slightly in a volatile manner. The price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3090 yuan (unchanged), and that in Tangshan was 3150 yuan (+20). For hot - rolled coils, the price in Shanghai was 3200 yuan (+30), and that in Tianjin was 3120 yuan (-20) [6]. - As of June 5, the overall production of five major steel products decreased by 0.47 tons, the factory inventory of the five major products decreased by 0.26 tons month - on - month, and the social inventory decreased by 1.53 tons. The apparent demand was 882.17 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.62 tons. As of June 6, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 2972 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of about 148 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 128 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace segment, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric - arc furnaces in East China (Fubao's data) was about 3260 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3128 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China was about - 210 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 78 yuan [8]. - In the scrap steel segment, as of June 5, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2080 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. Data showed that the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point; the daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 54.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66 tons. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 26.7 tons per day, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 tons; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.51 tons. In terms of supply, the daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 48.7 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7 tons, a decline of 8.8%. In terms of inventory, the total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 513.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.74 tons, a decline of 5.5%. Overall, the difference between iron and scrap steel prices continued to weaken this period, the economic efficiency of scrap steel slightly improved, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate with steel prices [8]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Production and Inventory Data of Five Major Steel Products - The report provides detailed production, inventory, and inventory change data of five major steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coils, medium - thick plates, wire rods, and cold - rolled coils) from March 28, 2025, to June 6, 2025, as well as the latest week - on - week changes [10][11]. 3.2.2 Steel Production Statistics - In 2024, according to the statistics bureau's data, the crude steel production was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons compared with 2023, a decline of 1.7%; the pig iron production was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons compared with 2023, a decline of 2.3%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative pig iron production was 289 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and the cumulative crude steel production was 345 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [17]. 3.2.3 Economic Data - The PMI in May 2025 was 49.5%. Compared with April 2025, the production index increased by 0.9 percentage points, the new order index increased by 0.6 percentage points, and the new export order index increased by 2.8 percentage points [22]. 3.2.4 Crude Steel Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report presents the supply - demand balance sheet of crude steel from 2019 to 2025E, including data on crude steel production, pig iron production, scrap steel - made steel production, crude steel imports and exports, and inventory changes [33]. 3.2.5 Supply - Side Data - **Long - process supply**: As of June 6, 2025, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.7% (unchanged from May 30), and the daily pig iron output was 241.8 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons compared with May 30 [49]. - **Short - process supply**: As of June 5, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 34.8% (+1 percentage point); as of June 6, the difference between iron and scrap steel prices was - 113 yuan (-5.5 yuan) [52]. - **Scrap steel data**: The daily arrival of scrap steel at 255 steel mills decreased, and the inventory also decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel increased overall, with short - process consumption increasing and long - process consumption decreasing [8]. 3.2.6 Demand - Side Data - **Rebar production and inventory**: This week, the original sample rebar production was 218.46 tons (-7.05 tons), including 193.66 tons of long - process production (-6.46 tons) and 24.8 tons of short - process production (-0.59 tons). The rebar factory inventory was 184.86 tons (-1.6 tons), the social inventory was 385.62 tons (-8.97 tons), and the total inventory was 570.48 tons (-10.57 tons) [65][81]. - **Hot - rolled coil supply and demand**: This week, the hot - rolled coil production was 328.75 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.2 tons; the apparent demand was 320.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.01 tons. The factory inventory increased by 1.33 tons, the social inventory increased by 6.5 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 7.83 tons [84]. - **Plate demand**: As of June 6, the cold - hot spread in Shanghai was 510 yuan/ton (-10 yuan) [91]. - **Export situation**: As of June 6, the FOB export price of China was $445 (-$10), the export profit was - $11.5 (-$20.4), and the outbound volume from 32 major domestic ports was 2.7219 million tons (-0.153 million tons) [96].
钢材月报:需求或超预期回落,钢材维持下行趋势-20250530
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 13:57
钢材月报: 需求或超预期回落 钢材维持下行趋势 分析师:陈为昌 中辉黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 报告日期:2025/5/30 观点摘要 【供需概况】:5月份上半月行情维持清明后的震荡区间,波动不大,下半月持续下行,突破前期低点。从宏 观层面看,今年以来的降准降息、刺激消费等对黑色系提振有限,财政政策的发力仍未出现。产业方面,房地 产延续疲态,"先化债、后投资"导致基建新项目数量有限,总体需求强度不及预期。钢厂利润在双焦持续下行 让利下保持了较佳状态,高铁水反映出生产积极性较高。出口继续保持增量,钢坯出口大增,缓解了供应压力 。 【策略建议】:虽然目前从数据上看钢材供需保持了平衡,但这一平衡是比较脆弱的。需求存在超季节性回落 可能,或导致供需向宽松方向发展。同时随着铁水产量见顶回落,原料端压力或进一步上升,带来成本下移的 负反馈逻辑,这一现象已在双焦上体现,后期随着铁矿石发运和到港的放量,不排除在铁矿上重演这一逻辑。 目前黑色产业链各环节的利润状况并不支持充分的去产量,下行趋势仍然没有 ...
下挫!黑色商品全线下跌!期螺跌50!钢价再破新低?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 07:40
3.鲍威尔:美联储不急于降息 经济具有韧性 特朗普施压无影响 5月8日,钢材现货市场小幅下跌,期货市场主要品种主力全部下跌,其中螺纹最低触及3047元/吨,创 一个月低位,热卷跌1.18%,铁矿、双焦跌超2%。节后钢材库存回升,表观需求环比明显下降,近期钢 市供需处于弱平衡格局,钢价... 一、多空因素分析 1.国家发改委:今年还将推出总投资规模约3万亿元优质项目 5月8日,国家发展改革委副主任郑备在国新办新闻发布会上表示,国家发展改革委已在核电、铁路等领 域推出了一批重大项目,目前有的核电项目民间资本参股比例达到20%;在工业设备更新、回收循环利 用领域,有的民营企业资金占比超过80%。郑备透露,今年还将在交通运输、能源、水利、新型基础设 施、城市基础设施等重点领域,推出总投资规模约3万亿元的优质项目。随着重大优质项目持续推出, 有利于增加钢材需求,利好钢材价格走势。 https://www.cls.cn/detail/2025249 2.节后钢材库存回升 表观需求环比明显下降 节后首周,五大钢材品种总库存环比增加28.97万吨至1476.09万吨,暂时中止了连续9周的递减趋势,产 量回落1.08%,表观需 ...