Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Not provided Summary by Directory Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various types of steel products (including different regions' rebar and hot/cold rolled coils) from March 25 - 31, 2026, and their price changes during this period [1] Production and Inventory - Not provided Basis and Spread - Not provided

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On March 31, 2026, the A - share market and various futures markets showed different trends. The A - share market had a collective callback, and futures markets such as coke, coal, and others had their own price movements influenced by factors like supply - demand relationships, international policies, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Category A. Stock Index Futures - On March 31, A - share market indices fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.80% to 3891.86 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81% to 13478.06 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.70% to 3184.95 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2006.1 billion yuan, an increase of 78.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 31, closing at 4450.05, a decrease of 41.90 from the previous day [2]. B. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 31, the coke weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1737.4, a decrease of 54.0 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index also trended weakly, closing at 1203.2 yuan, a decrease of 72.7 from the previous day [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, daily production slightly increases, coke inventory slightly rises, and traders' purchasing willingness improves slightly. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, downstream molten iron slightly increases, and steel profit slightly improves. The coking coal futures price has a large premium over Mongolian coal, and Mongolian coal customs clearance data remains high. Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1230 vehicles. Coal mine production has returned to a high - level, weekly production slightly decreases, spot auction transactions are good this week, transaction prices mainly rise, terminal inventory significantly increases, and there is some restocking action. The total coking coal inventory slightly increases, and production - end inventory slightly decreases [4]. C. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the failure of the futures price to break through and stabilize at the 16 - cent technical level, it was pressured by technical selling, and the US sugar oscillated and declined on Monday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. Due to the large short - term decline, affected by the technical aspect, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated and adjusted slightly higher at night. In the 2026/27 season starting in April, Brazil's sugar export volume may decrease by 14.2% as sugar mills tend to use more sugarcane to produce ethanol due to high energy prices. Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season will drop from 43.5 million tons in the previous season to 40.3 million tons [4]. D. Rubber - Affected by the decline of synthetic rubber, Shanghai rubber oscillated and declined on Tuesday. At night, supported by bargain - hunting buying, Shanghai rubber oscillated and rose. In the first two months of 2026, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 450,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15%. From January to February, Thailand's exports of mixed rubber were 297,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In total, Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first two months were 747,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [4]. E. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 31, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1172.25 cents per bushel, a gain of 1.17%. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to be 84.7 million acres, higher than last year's 81.215 million acres but lower than analysts' forecast of 85.549 million acres. Brazil's soybean exports in March are estimated to be 15.86 million tons, slightly lower than the previous forecast, and the short - term export rhythm is stable. Domestically, on March 31, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2915 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.75%. China has relaxed the weed quarantine standards for Brazilian soybeans, and the customs clearance speed has accelerated. Brazilian soybeans will arrive in large quantities from April to May, and the domestic soybean supply will become more abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to stop falling and rise. It is recommended to focus on the weather in South American main production areas, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the rhythm of soybean arrivals, and customs clearance efficiency [6]. F. Live Pigs - On March 31, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9770 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.35%. The inventory of breeding sows remains at a high level, higher than the reasonable regulation target. Coupled with the improvement of production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs continues to increase, and the slaughter volume remains high. The capacity reduction is insufficient, and the supply side remains loose. The demand side has insufficient carrying capacity and cannot effectively support the live pig price. Although some slaughtering enterprises carry out frozen product segmentation and warehousing operations, and there is a small amount of secondary fattening, such demand is limited, and it is difficult to reverse the current market pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to focus on the progress of breeding sow reduction, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the recovery of terminal consumption [6]. G. Palm Oil - On March 31, affected by Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange once broke through the 10,000 - yuan mark. However, the subsequent upward momentum was insufficient, and the market oscillated and declined with a reduction in positions. By the afternoon close, the palm oil main contract P2605 K - line closed as a negative line with long upper and lower shadows. The highest price on the day was 10082, the lowest price was 9808, and the closing price was 9866, a decrease of 0.64% from the previous trading day. According to the independent inspection agency AmSpec in Malaysia, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 31 were 1,607,065 tons, a 56.7% increase from the 1,025,449 tons exported in the same period last month [6]. H. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main 2605 contract oscillated in a narrow range, closing at 95340 yuan per ton. The opening price was 96100 yuan per ton, the highest was 96240 yuan per ton, the lowest was 95150 yuan per ton, the trading volume was 96,900 lots, and the positions slightly declined. In the spot market, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was 95350 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day, with a premium of 120 - 160 yuan per ton. The price differences in East China, South China, and Central China were all within 50 yuan, and the market transactions were stable. Fundamentally, on the supply side, smelting has production cuts, and the scrap copper policy is liberalized; on the demand side, the "Golden March" peak season is gradually realized, and the power grid, new energy, and other fields support the demand. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is decreasing at a low level, and the global inventory is still tight. It is necessary to pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation and the progress of domestic inventory reduction [6]. I. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15510 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 15 lots compared with the previous trading day, and downstream textile enterprises purchased as needed and were cautious about price adjustments. The US Department of Agriculture will release the 2026 US cotton planting intention forecast on Tuesday. The current industry average forecast is 9.229 million acres, with a forecast range of 9 - 9.635 million acres. Last year's actual planting area was 9.283 million acres, the US Agricultural Outlook Forum predicted 9.4 million acres, and the US NCC predicted 8.99 million acres [6][7]. J. Iron Ore - On March 31, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.8% and a closing price of 808 yuan. The iron ore shipments in this period declined, the arrival volume continued to increase month - on - month, the port inventory decreased, steel mills maintained the resumption trend, and the molten iron output continued to rise. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [8]. K. Asphalt - On March 31, the asphalt 2606 main contract oscillated and declined, with a decline of 1.53% and a closing price of 4512 yuan. The refinery operating rate is at a low level, the supply is tight, the terminal demand starts slowly, the refinery shipments continue to decline month - on - month, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [8]. L. Logs - The log 2605 main contract opened at 826 on Tuesday, with a minimum of 820, a maximum of 829, and a closing price of 820.5, with a daily reduction of 360 lots. On March 31, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 790 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous day. As of March 27, the domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.69%, hitting a one - month low. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and the support of the macro - expected market sentiment on the price [8][9]. M. Steel - On March 31, rb2605 closed at 3121 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3294 yuan per ton. In March, as enterprises accelerated the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of the manufacturing industry both rebounded and entered the expansion range. Although the business activity index of the construction industry rose to 49.3% in March, it was still in the contraction range. The number of newly started projects this year decreased year - on - year, and the industry demand recovered slowly. From the perspective of the steel market fundamentals, the supply and demand have gradually recovered since March, but it still faces high inventory pressure. Merchants mainly continue to reduce inventory, and the short - term steel price may oscillate [9]. N. Alumina - On March 31, ao2605 closed at 2827 yuan per ton. Affected by the uncertainty of Guinea's ore policy and the increase in shipping costs due to the Middle East situation, the price of imported ore still has room to rise. Coupled with the increase in caustic soda prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the cost support of alumina continues to move up. In addition, some domestic production cuts and new production capacities have not yet been fully released, and the short - term supply pressure is not large. However, since there are many new production capacities to be put into operation at home and abroad in the medium and long term, the upward pressure on alumina is still large [9]. O. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 31, al2605 closed at 24875 yuan per ton. The downstream demand is picking up, and the inflection point of social inventory is approaching. In addition, the potential risk of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually be transmitted to the electrolytic aluminum production in the Middle East. Coupled with the concerns about aluminum plant production cuts caused by the soaring natural gas prices in Europe, the global supply stability is facing challenges. It is worth noting that the extent of the production capacity damage of Bahrain Aluminum and UAE Aluminum due to the weekend incident remains to be evaluated, while Qatar Aluminum has clearly terminated the production capacity reduction plan, injecting a certain degree of stability into the market. Overall, there is still support at the bottom of electrolytic aluminum [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on steel is on the stronger side. The market is in a state of shock and consolidation. Currently, there are many repetitions in overseas geopolitical issues, and the problem of crude oil navigation has not been clearly resolved. If the game time continues to be prolonged, it will have a greater impact on oil supply, which will then be transmitted to related substitutes such as coal. Recently, countries exporting various minerals have seen varying degrees of decline in the available days of diesel, so attention should be paid to the production of overseas raw material ends. Fundamentally, hot metal is slowly recovering. The total output of five types of finished steel products has decreased slightly month - on - month, inventory is seasonally decreasing, and apparent demand is rising. Rebar production has decreased and inventory has decreased, while hot - rolled coil production has increased and inventory has decreased. In the short term, it is mainly weakly stable. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented. The profits of long - process steel mills in the spot market are average, and the profits of short - process steel mills during off - peak hours have slightly rebounded. Currently, there is sector rotation, and the black sector is still in the bottom range. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities in related low - valued varieties [3]. - The view on the month spread is neutral. The 5 - 10 month spread of rebar is - 27 yuan/ton, and it is in a low - level shock [3]. - The view on steel mill profits is on the stronger side. This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises is 43.29%, slightly rising month - on - month, but still significantly lower than the same period last year [3][13]. - The view on scrap steel is neutral. According to calculations, the current marginal cost of electric arc furnace steel mills in East China results in a loss of 97 yuan/ton during peak hours and a profit of 9 yuan/ton during off - peak hours [3]. - The view on finished steel inventory is neutral. The overall inventory of five types of finished steel products is seasonally increasing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production - As of March 27, 2026, the daily average pig iron output is 231.09 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9 tons, lower than the same period last year. According to Mysteel research data, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 enterprises nationwide this week is 81.03%, seasonally rising month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces is 58.87%, significantly rising month - on - month and higher than the same period last year [13]. - This week, the total output of five major varieties is 839.58 tons, a decrease of 0.24 tons compared with last week. Among them, the rebar output is 197.87 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46 tons; the hot - rolled coil output is 305.61 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 5.4 tons. The output of cold - rolled and medium - thick plates is significantly higher than the historical average [19]. 3.2 Demand - In terms of demand, the total consumption of five major varieties this week is 887.97 tons, seasonally rising month - on - month. The weekly consumption of rebar is 225.37 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. The consumption of hot - rolled coils is 313.63 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [36]. - After the holiday, the spot trading volume is weakly stable, and the overall trading volume is lower than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery [53]. 3.3 Inventory - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet - rolling factories is 72.75 tons, slightly decreasing month - on - month, but still much higher than the same period last year. The billet inventory in mainstream warehouses is 250.23 tons, slightly decreasing month - on - month, and it is still at the highest level in the same historical period [71]. 3.4 Valuation - Rebar warehouse receipts have increased significantly but are still lower than the same period last year. Hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts have increased significantly month - on - month and are at a historical high [106]. 3.5 Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheet of crude steel shows various data from July 2025 to September 2026, including initial and final inventories of steel mills and society, pig iron and crude steel production, import and export volumes, total consumption, production - demand differences, excess volumes, year - on - year changes in production and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year changes in production and consumption [107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market fluctuated downward before the Spring Festival due to limited macro - level support, high iron ore inventory, and high coking coal imports. After the Spring Festival, affected by the US - Iran war, energy costs were expected to rise, and steel costs increased, leading to a rebound in the black - related market. Currently, steel is in the de - stocking phase, with overall inventory normal but high in East China and high warehouse receipts. If demand does not recover beyond the seasonal norm, it may put pressure on the market [2]. - For the second - quarter market, there is suppression from the steel's own supply - demand situation, and there is also the real pressure of continuous increase in overall raw material supply. Support mainly comes from the uncertainty of raw materials. Overall volatility may be relatively limited, and the downward space at the current position is greater than the upward space [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the first quarter, the steel market first declined and then rose. As of March 27, the quarterly lines of the 05 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils were basically flat, with a quarterly fluctuation range of less than 200 yuan/ton. The raw material end had relatively larger fluctuations, with the main iron ore contract rising 2.9% quarterly, coke rising 3.5%, and coking coal rising 9.3% [6]. - Before the Spring Festival, the market fluctuated downward. After the Spring Festival, affected by the US - Iran war, energy costs were expected to rise, and steel costs increased, leading to a rebound [6]. 3.2 Monetary and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded, and the M1 - M2 spread rose again but remained in the negative range. - The growth rate of social financing continued to decline, and the spread between social financing and M2 remained in the negative range, indicating that social investment willingness was still low [9]. 3.3 Price Index - In February, the CPI was 1.3% and the PPI was - 0.9%. - The manufacturing PMI in February was 49, a 0.3 - point decrease from the previous month. - Prices were generally recovering moderately, deflation pressure was gradually easing, and the manufacturing prosperity was still average [12]. 3.4 Steel Monthly Data - In 2025, the crude steel output was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; the pig iron output decreased by 3% year - on - year [13]. 3.5 Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data - As of March 27, 2026, the total output of the five - major steel products was 839,580 tons, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous week, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.89%. The total consumption was 888,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons compared to the previous week, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.29%. The total inventory was 1.898 million tons, a decrease of 48,390 tons compared to the previous week, and a year - on - year increase of 9.21% [14]. 3.6 Steel Production - After the Two Sessions, steel mills entered the resumption phase, but the current output of the five - major steel products is still lower than the same period in previous years, which may reflect the structural changes in steel products in recent years [17]. 3.7 Steel Production Profit - Steel mills generally maintained positive profits, with rebar profits better than hot - rolled coil profits, especially in North China. - The profit of electric arc furnaces using off - peak electricity fluctuated around the break - even line in the new year and is currently in a state of slight profit [18]. 3.8 Steel Demand - The overall demand for the five - major steel products has rebounded rapidly and is higher than the same period last year, mainly contributed by cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates. The sales volume of building materials is still at a low level [36]. 3.9 Real Estate - From January to February, real estate investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 23.1% [42]. - Since 2026, the sales of commercial housing and land transactions have remained weak. The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the sales area of 30 - city commercial housing is 17%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the land transaction area of 100 cities is 4.6% [45]. 3.10 Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. - From January to February 2026, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, infrastructure investment increased by 11.4%, and manufacturing investment growth was 3.1% [50]. 3.11 Steel Export - In 2025, steel exports reached 119 million tons, the highest in history. - From January to February 2026, steel exports were 15.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. The steel export license system will restrict the practice of buying export orders, and steel exports may face a phased reduction [64]. 3.12 Steel Inventory - Rebar inventory is normal overall, but the inventory in East China is relatively high. - Hot - rolled coil inventory is generally high, and the de - stocking in East China is a bit slow [68][71]. 3.13 Basis and Spread - Rebar basis was high before the Spring Festival and then declined. It is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years. The high inventory in East China and the general demand recovery speed put pressure on spot de - stocking, and the basis is gradually weakening. The 10 - contract basis will continue to shrink [80]. - Hot - rolled coil basis was strong first and then weak in the first quarter, with a relatively small overall fluctuation range. It is currently at a low level compared to the same period, and the high inventory exerts pressure. The space for further weakening is relatively limited [89]. - Rebar monthly spread maintained a contango structure in the first quarter and strengthened overall. It is currently around - 30. The high inventory in East China may suppress the monthly spread, and the 10 - 1 monthly spread may not strengthen in the short term. There may be a chance of a phased increase after the inventory de - stocking accelerates in the second quarter [94]. - Hot - rolled coil monthly spread strengthened from around - 20 to near 0 in the first quarter. The slow de - stocking of East China's spot will limit the space for the monthly spread to continue strengthening. The 10 - 1 monthly spread of hot - rolled coil strengthened in the first quarter and is currently near par. If it drops below - 20 in the second quarter, a positive arbitrage can be considered [99]. 3.14 Warehouse Receipts - Rebar warehouse receipts have increased rapidly recently, indicating that the spot sales pressure is still large under the positive basis in East China. - Hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts are at the highest level in recent years and are still increasing. It may put pressure on the market after entering the delivery logic [110]. 3.15 Iron Ore and Coking Coal - Since this year, the shipping volume and arrival volume of iron ore have been relatively high, showing a year - on - year increase. - Iron ore inventory increased significantly in the first quarter. Although there has been de - stocking recently, the absolute level is still as high as 170 million tons, the highest in the same period. Among them, the inventory of domestic iron ore is significantly high, reaching 113 million tons [113][116]. - Coking coal production rebounded rapidly after the Spring Festival and has now exceeded the same period last year. Coking coal imports remain at the highest level in the same period [118]. - The total coking coal inventory is similar to the same period last year and has rebounded recently. The upstream mine inventory has decreased recently, indicating that the inventory is shifting from upstream to downstream [120][121].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 26, 2026 - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09% to 3889.08, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.41% to 13606.44, and the Chi - Next Index declined 1.34% to 3272.49. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1957.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 235.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4477.53, down 59.93 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal closed at 1287.5 yuan, down 9.1. After the holiday, coal mines gradually resumed production, with supply at a high level in the same period of previous years, and prices were under some pressure. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was at a high level, and there was still pressure on port inventory. From January to February 2026, the total import of coking coal was 19.8268 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.21% [3][4]. - Coke: The weighted index of coke closed at 1792.6, down 18.6. Some coking enterprises initiated the first - round price increase for coke, with the price of wet - quenched coke rising by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, starting from 0:00 on March 25. Mainstream steel mills have not yet accepted it, and the first - round price increase is still in a game. The iron - making water output increased significantly, with a week - on - week increase of 69,500 tons per day. From January to February 2026, China's total coke exports were 1.4341 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41.87% [2][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, the crude oil price fluctuated higher on Thursday. Supported by the strong crude oil price, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated upward on Thursday. The night session of the contract had little fluctuation, with a narrow - range shock and a small increase. In April 2026, the domestic sugar sales quota was 2.3 million tons, 50,000 tons less than the same period last year [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Due to factors such as a large short - term increase and the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and sorted out on Thursday, with a small increase. The night session had little fluctuation, with a narrow - range shock and a small increase. From January to February 2026, China's tire production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year to 177.526 million pieces, and the cumulative production of synthetic rubber was 1.542 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% [4][5]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International market: On March 26, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1171 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.21%. As of the week ending March 19, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year was 668,900 tons, a 124% increase from the previous week and an 89% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly over, with export logistics facing challenges, but the overall supply is abundant. Brazil's soybean exports in March are expected to be 15.87 million tons [5]. - Domestic market: On March 26, the main soybean meal M2605 contract closed at 2937 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51%. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture is actively solving the soybean export quarantine problem, and the market's concern about the supply of imported soybeans is gradually subsiding. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased last weekend, and the spot inventory of oil mills increased slightly. It is expected that the arrival volume of soybeans in China will increase significantly from April to May [5]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 26, the main live pig LH2605 contract closed at 9835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.45%. Affected by the high inventory of sows capable of reproduction and the improvement of production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased. The overall shipment enthusiasm was high, and the shipment rhythm accelerated significantly. The demand side was in the seasonal off - season, with weak downstream white - strip sales, low slaughtering enterprise operating rates, and limited support for pig prices [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 26, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange continued to follow the crude oil price fluctuations, with the main contract P2605 closing with a positive line with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 9640, the lowest was 9482, and the closing price was 9614, a 1.09% decrease from the previous trading day. From March 1 to 25, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.74% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.28% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 11.21% month - on - month [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract had a narrow - range shock and finally closed up 0.17% at 95,350 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 95,325 yuan/ton, with a discount of 25 yuan/ton compared to the main futures contract. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased significantly by 997,000 tons compared to March 19. The global shortage of copper ore raw materials is still expected, the smelting processing profit is limited, and the output increase is limited. The downstream demand of the domestic power grid and new - energy vehicles is steadily recovering [5]. 2.8 Logs - The main log 2605 contract opened at 816.5, with a minimum of 814, a maximum of 820, and a closing price of 817, with a decrease of 349 lots in positions. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day [6]. 2.9 Iron Ore - On March 26, the main iron ore 2605 contract closed up 0.18% at 817 yuan. The shipping and arrival volume of iron ore increased week - on - week, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the iron - making water demand of steel mills recovered. The short - term iron ore price was in a shock trend [6]. 2.10 Asphalt - On March 26, the main asphalt 2606 contract closed up 4.17% at 4543 yuan. The refinery production plan in April decreased to a low level in the same period in recent years, the downstream demand started slowly, and the refinery shipment volume decreased week - on - week. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [6]. 2.11 Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15,355 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 100 lots compared to the previous trading day, and downstream textile enterprises purchased on demand [6]. 2.12 Steel - On March 26, rb2605 closed at 3128 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3305 yuan/ton. This week, the steel market may see an increase in both supply and demand, and the inventory is still in a downward channel. However, the overall trading volume of the steel market was average. The short - term steel price may fluctuate in a narrow range [6]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 26, ao2605 closed at 2931 yuan/ton. Some domestic alumina enterprises carried out maintenance and production reduction, and the new production capacity has not yet produced, which alleviated the phased supply pressure. However, the suppression brought by the new production capacity is still significant, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change. The downstream peak - season consumption expectation is lower than in previous years, and the market trading is dull [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 26, al2605 closed at 23,725 yuan/ton. The market is waiting and seeing the possibility of the US - Iran talks in the Middle East and evaluating the possibility of the situation intensifying again. The supply side of the fundamentals is operating smoothly, the aluminum - water ratio has increased slightly, the platform inventory is still at a high level, the accumulation speed of the aluminum ingot social inventory has slowed down, and the aluminum rod shows inventory reduction. The demand side shows moderate receiving, and the downstream and terminal restocking willingness exists, which provides certain support for the spot [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 25, 2026, A - share major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.30% to 3931.84, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.95% to 13801.00, and the ChiNext Index up 2.01% to 3316.97. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 96.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 index was strong, while the coke and coking coal weighted indices declined. The prices of Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, and other futures were affected by factors such as news of the US - Iran conflict and oil price changes [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 25, the A - share major indices strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.01%. The trading volume of the three - market was 2.19 trillion yuan, up 96.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4537.47, up 62.74 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 25, the coke weighted index oscillated and closed at 1807.8, down 25.6. The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range oscillation, closing at 1296.6 yuan, down 13.5. Coking profit was average with a slight increase in daily production. Coke inventory changed little, and the purchasing willingness of traders improved slightly. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1516 vehicles. Coal mine resumption was good, weekly production increased slightly, and the spot auction transaction price rose due to market concerns about energy [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the sharp drop in oil prices and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated lower on March 25. At night, it had a narrow - range oscillation and a slight increase. As of March 24, 12 sugar mills in Zhanjiang, Guangdong had completed squeezing, and 5 were still in production. It was expected that the latest - squeezing mill would stop in early April. As of late March, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was about 600,000 tons, and the total sugar production in the 2025/26 season was expected to be slightly less than the previous season's 650,000 tons [4]. Rubber - Due to the news that the US submitted a 15 - point plan to Iran to end the conflict, oil prices dropped sharply. The market's optimistic sentiment about the possible easing of the US - Iran conflict was reignited, and the Southeast Asian spot quotes oscillated higher. The Shanghai rubber oscillated upward on March 25. Affected by the large short - term increase, it oscillated and adjusted slightly lower at night. From January to February 2026, China's tire production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year to 1.77526 billion pieces, and the cumulative production of synthetic rubber increased by 8.5% year - on - year to 1.542 million tons [4]. Soybean and Bean Meal - As of March 21, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil in the 2025/2026 season was 67.7%, behind last year's 76.4%. Brazil's soybean exports in March were expected to be 15.87 million tons, lower than last week's forecast. On March 25, the bean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2932 yuan/ton, down 0.98%. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture was actively solving soybean export quarantine problems, and the market's concern about imported soybean supply was gradually subsiding. The bean meal inventory last week was 620,000 tons, up 30,000 tons week - on - week and down 170,000 tons month - on - month [6]. Pig - On March 25, the pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9980 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. Due to the high inventory of breeding sows and improved production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased. The scale pig enterprises' March sales plan increased month - on - month, and the sales rhythm accelerated. The demand was in the seasonal off - season, the downstream white - strip sales were weak, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was low. Although frozen product storage and secondary fattening provided some support, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand was difficult to reverse [6]. Palm Oil - On March 25, the Dalian Commodity Exchange's palm oil futures followed the oil price fluctuations. After a sharp drop in the morning, it was weak. The main contract P2605 closed with a doji - like K - line. The highest price was 9676, the lowest was 9464, and the closing price was 9510, down 1.39% from the previous trading day. According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 were 1,414,990 tons, up 38.4% from the same period last month. According to AmSpec, the exports were 1,389,549 tons, up 51% [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract CU2605 closed at 95,590 yuan/ton, with an intraday range of 93,480 - 96,380 yuan/ton. The trading volume remained high. Driven by technical repair and downstream replenishment, the copper price rebounded from the short - term oversold situation. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, while the overseas inventory increased slightly. In the short - term, it was likely to maintain a range - bound pattern [6]. Cotton - On the night of March 25, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15,370 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 10 lots compared with the previous day. As of late March 2026, the total inventory of un - cleared foreign cotton in Qingdao, Nantong, and Zhangjiagang was about 470,900 tons, an increase of 38,700 tons from the end of February and about 200,000 tons since October last year [6]. Log - On March 25, the log 2605 main contract opened at 820, with a minimum of 807, a maximum of 823.5, and closed at 816, with a decrease of 1315 lots. The spot prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu were both 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [8]. Iron Ore - On March 25, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated and fell by 1.83%, closing at 806.5 yuan. The iron ore shipment and arrival volume increased this period, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill's hot - metal demand increased. The short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8]. Asphalt - On March 25, the asphalt 2606 main contract oscillated and fell by 1.1%, closing at 4410 yuan. The raw material supply was unstable, the refinery's production plan in April decreased to a low level in recent years, the downstream demand started slowly, and the refinery's sales volume decreased month - on - month. The short - term asphalt price might follow the oil price [8]. Steel - On March 25, rb2605 closed at 3132 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3313 yuan/ton. The US proposed a 15 - item plan to end the conflict in Iran through Pakistan, but Iran's response was unclear. The domestic energy and chemical futures prices continued to fall, and the coking coal futures price also weakened. The domestic steel demand recovery was slow, the market transaction was average, and the cost support was unstable. The short - term steel price might have a weak and narrow - range adjustment [8]. Alumina - On March 25, ao2605 closed at 2963 yuan/ton. The Guinea Ministry of Mines planned to restrict bauxite exports in early April to stabilize prices, and the supply contraction expectation increased. Some domestic alumina enterprises carried out maintenance and production reduction, and the new production capacity had not been put into production, which relieved the short - term supply pressure. However, the long - term oversupply expectation remained, and the social inventory was still at a high level. The downstream procurement demand was average, and the consumption sentiment was low [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 25, al2605 closed at 23,860 yuan/ton. The market was evaluating the possible peace - talk plan between the US and Iran, but the US was also increasing the deployment of ground troops. The oil price continued to decline, and non - ferrous metals continued to rebound. Some aluminum plants in the Middle East had production cuts. The supply side was stable, the aluminum - water ratio increased slightly, and the social inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The demand side showed good receiving, and the downstream and terminal replenishment willingness supported the spot price [8].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures - On March 24, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.78% to 3881.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 13536.56 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.50% to 3251.55 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2096.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 352.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated widely on March 24, closing at 4474.72, a month-on-month increase of 56.73 [2] Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On March 24, the coke weighted index adjusted and consolidated, closing at 1823.0, a month-on-month decrease of 13.2 [2] - On March 24, the coking coal weighted index fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 1297.2 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 5.7 [3] - The spot price of coke at ports increased. The mainstream coke enterprises proposed to raise the coke price by 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The steel mills' profitability was fair, and the iron water output continued to increase, leading to an increase in the procurement enthusiasm for coke [4] - The price of coking coal in some areas increased. The production of main coal-producing areas remained stable, and the market trading activity increased. The terminal steel demand improved, and the coke enterprises proposed a price increase [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated downward on March 24. The uncertainty of short - term crude oil price limited the decline space [4] - The Asia - Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center issued an El Niño warning, indicating that most parts of the world may enter a warming stage in the next few months [4] Group 4: Rubber - Due to the high price of crude oil, the price of synthetic rubber has risen significantly, which may prompt manufacturers to choose natural rubber as a substitute. The Shanghai rubber fluctuated higher on March 24. The expected slowdown of global economic growth may restrict rubber demand [5] - As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8000 tons, an increase of 1.18% [5] Group 5: Soybean Meal - On March 24, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1154 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.9%. As of March 31, the soybean harvest in Brazil was 67.7% complete, behind last year's 76.4%. The market is concerned about the US Department of Agriculture's sowing intention report [5] - On March 24, the domestic soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.53%. After the relaxation of the inspection of imported Brazilian soybeans, the supply shortage of soybean meal is expected to ease [5] Group 6: Live Pigs - On March 24, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 10045 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65%. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased, and the market supply pattern was loose. The demand was in the off - season, and the overall supply - demand pattern was supply - strong and demand - weak [5] Group 7: Palm Oil - On March 24, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fluctuated widely, and the main contract P2605 closed with a small negative line. The price decreased by 3.00% compared with the previous trading day [5] - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 20 was 889,128 tons, a 61.02% increase compared with the same period last month [5] Group 8: Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main CU2605 contract rebounded and fluctuated, closing at 94030 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25%. The spot price increased, but the discount pattern remained unchanged. The price was supported by factors such as low domestic inventory, but the downstream demand did not show obvious improvement [5] Group 9: Cotton - On the night of March 24, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15210 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 30 lots compared with the previous trading day. The "Golden March and Silver April" textile peak season this year exceeded market expectations [6] Group 10: Iron Ore - On March 24, the iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.55%, closing at 824 yuan. The shipping and arrival volume of iron ore increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore price was in a fluctuating trend in the short term [6] Group 11: Asphalt - On March 24, the asphalt 2606 main contract fluctuated and declined, with a decline of 3.66%, closing at 4401 yuan. The raw material supply was unstable, the refinery production plan in April decreased, and the downstream demand started slowly. The asphalt price may follow the oil price in the short term [6] Group 12: Logs - On March 24, the log 2605 main contract opened at 820, with a minimum of 818, a maximum of 825, and closed at 823, with an increase of 224 lots in positions [6] - The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. Future attention should be paid to factors such as spot price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7] Group 13: Steel - On March 24, rb2605 closed at 3145 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3324 yuan/ton. The international oil price dropped, but the Middle East situation remained complex. The steel market supply and demand increased, and the cost support moved up. The steel price may fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [7] Group 14: Alumina - On March 24, ao2605 closed at 3014 yuan/ton. The Middle East conflict pushed up energy costs, and the demand for industrial metals was under pressure. In the short term, the alumina price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation, but in the long term, the new production capacity will suppress the price [7] Group 15: Shanghai Aluminum - On March 24, al2605 closed at 23625 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum price was supported by multiple factors. The Middle East situation affected the aluminum price through price linkage, cost conduction, and market sentiment. The domestic aluminum price had a strong upward drive [8]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On March 20, the three major A-share indexes showed different trends. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.24% to 3957.05, below 4000 points. The Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.25% to 13866.20, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.30% to 3352.10. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 175.6 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index remained weak on March 20, closing at 4567.02, a decrease of 16.23 from the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On March 20, the weighted index of coke fluctuated and closed at 1761.7, up 8.4 from the previous day [2] - The weighted index of coking coal had a narrow - range fluctuation on March 20, closing at 1210.4 yuan, up 8.1 from the previous day [3] - For coke, coke enterprises' operating loads were stable, inventory decreased, and profit per ton turned positive. Steel mills' operations and molten iron production increased. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. In different regions, the operations in Shanxi were stable, most steel mills in Hebei resumed production, procurement in East China was cautious, and production in Central China improved [4] - For coking coal, Mongolian coal customs clearance remained high, coal washing plants' operations increased, and clean coal inventory decreased slightly. Downstream coke enterprises' operations were stable, coking coal inventory increased, and molten iron production rose. The price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan was 1435 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1350 yuan/ton on the futures market. In different regions, the coal market showed different trends, and the import price of Mongolian coal was differentiated [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Tensions in the Middle East war pushed up energy prices. The market worried that higher energy prices might lead sugar mills in Brazil and India to reduce sugar production and increase ethanol production. Affected by this, the US sugar futures rose on March 20, and the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract also rose at night [4] Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, the Shanghai rubber futures rebounded on March 20 under the influence of technical factors. As of March 20, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 137,630 tons, an increase of 1580 tons from the previous day, and the futures warehouse receipts were 125,440 tons, an increase of 4600 tons. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 48,686 tons, a decrease of 2016 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 48,082 tons, a decrease of 1209 tons [4][5] Palm Oil - On the night of March 20, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange had a narrow - range consolidation. The main contract P2605 closed with a doji star. The highest price was 9782, the lowest was 9650, and the closing price was 9724. From March 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,191,962 tons, a 38.06% increase from the same period last month [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 20, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1160.5 cents per bushel, a 0.68% decline. US soybean exports were lower than expected, and China's purchases were low. Brazil's soybean harvest was slow but the harvest was certain. ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in March would reach 16.32 million tons [5] - Domestically, on March 20, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 3029 yuan/ton, a 0.43% decline. Imported soybeans might be delayed, oil mills' operations were limited, and the inventory of soybean meal was low. Downstream replenishment was active. It was recommended to track South American weather, the Middle East situation, and soybean arrival rhythm [5] Live Pigs - On March 20, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 10,220 yuan/ton, a 1.11% decline. Large - scale pig farms' March slaughter plans increased significantly, and the supply was abundant. The post - holiday pork consumption was in the off - season, and the demand was weak. Secondary fattening and slaughter for cold storage were limited [5] Shanghai Copper - On March 20, the main Shanghai copper contract CU2605 closed at 94,740 yuan/ton. The intraday range was 91,820 - 96,400 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 243,300 lots, and the open interest was 201,200 lots (a slight decrease). The spot price of Shanghai No. 1 electrolytic copper was 95,825 yuan/ton, with a premium of 1085 yuan/ton. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance and a stronger US dollar, the price opened low in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. In January, the global refined copper supply had a surplus of 129,300 tons. China's refined copper production from January - February increased by 9%, and copper product production increased by 3.4%. The social inventory decreased continuously [5][6] Logs - On March 20, the main log contract 2605 opened at 814, with a low of 812, a high of 824, and closed at 823.5, with an increase of 1409 lots in open interest. The spot price of medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, both unchanged from the previous day. It was recommended to follow the spot price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6] Iron Ore - On March 20, the main iron ore contract 2605 rose 1.05% to 815.5 yuan. Iron ore shipments increased, arrivals decreased, port inventory accumulated, and steel mills' demand for molten iron increased. The iron ore price was in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - On March 20, the main asphalt contract 2606 fell 3.88% to 4457 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, inventory increased slightly, downstream demand had not started, and refinery shipments decreased. The asphalt price might follow the oil price [6] Cotton - On the night of March 20, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15,305 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 37 lots from the previous day. China showed an open attitude towards buying more US agricultural products, and downstream textile enterprises purchased as needed [6] Steel - In March, with the temperature rising, downstream construction sites entered the peak season, and demand gradually recovered. Infrastructure was the main support for the demand recovery in March. From January - February, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 11.4% year - on - year. In the first half of March, the steel price was strong due to rising raw material costs and recovering demand [6] Alumina - The cost of alumina was supported by the rising price of bauxite from Guinea. The supply of alumina increased due to rising imports and new production capacity. The demand for alumina was expected to increase as domestic electrolytic aluminum plants' operations were stable and there might be export demand [6] Shanghai Aluminum - The raw material cost of aluminum increased due to geopolitical factors, and the theoretical profit of smelters was good. The supply of aluminum ingots was abundant, and the social inventory was at a high level and still increasing. With the arrival of the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season, the downstream demand for aluminum increased after the price decline. However, due to geopolitical factors, the aluminum price was under pressure, and downstream purchasing became more cautious [8]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings 2. Core Views of the Report - On March 19, the A - share market and multiple futures markets showed various trends affected by different factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and geopolitical events [1][4][6] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 19, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.39% to 4006.55 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.02% to 13901.57 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.11% to 3309.10 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2127.5 billion yuan, an increase of 66.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index was weak on March 19, closing at 4583.25, a decrease of 75.08 from the previous period [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On March 19, the coke weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1743.4, a decrease of 12.2. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated, closing at 1195.4 yuan, a decrease of 8.9 [2][3] - For coke, port spot prices were stable, supply from coke enterprises was increasing, and demand from steel mills was rising. For coking coal, prices in some areas changed, supply from major mines was normal, and demand from coke - steel enterprises increased [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Expectations of firm crude oil prices led to an upward trend in US sugar on Wednesday, and factors such as the rise in US sugar and increased spot prices drove the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract to rise on Thursday and slightly higher at night. China's finished sugar production from January to February was 677.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [4] Rubber - With the opening of the tapping season in Yunnan, Indonesia entering the peak - production season, and Cote d'Ivoire starting tapping, supply is expected to increase. Concerns about a global economic recession may reduce demand, causing the Shanghai rubber to decline on Thursday and slightly lower at night. China's rubber tire exports in the first two months of 2026 increased [4][6] Palm Oil - On March 19, palm oil futures continued to fluctuate at a high level. The main contract P2605 closed at 9796, a 1.07% increase from the previous trading day. From March 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased compared to the same period last month [6] Soybean Meal - In the international market, on March 19, the CBOT soybean main contract rose 0.41% to 1168 cents per bushel. US soybean export sales and shipments decreased. In the domestic market, the main soybean meal M2605 contract rose 0.2% to 3042 yuan per ton. Import delays, low inventory, and high import costs supported the price [6] Live Hogs - On March 19, the main live hog contract LH2605 fell 1.34% to 10335 yuan per ton. Supply was abundant due to increased planned slaughter by large - scale farms and high sow inventory. Demand was weak in the off - season, and the overall bottom - fishing efforts were limited [6] Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract 2605 weakened significantly, closing at a new low for the year. Macro - factors such as Fed's hawkish expectations and high inventory levels led to the decline. Spot trading was still cautious [6][7] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15055 yuan per ton, with a decrease of 43 lots in inventory compared to the previous day. The crude oil market and short - fiber polyester prices were rising, and container prices also increased [7] Logs - The main log 2605 contract opened at 810.5 on March 19, with a low of 804.5, a high of 817, and closed at 814.5, with an increase of 60 lots. Spot prices in Shandong remained stable, and those in Jiangsu increased [7] Iron Ore - On March 19, the main iron ore 2605 contract closed down 0.55% at 807.5 yuan. Shipments increased, arrivals decreased, and inventory accumulated. However, there may be demand for replenishment from steel mills, so prices were expected to fluctuate [7] Asphalt - On March 19, the main asphalt 2606 contract rose 4.52% to 4625 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, inventory was low, and demand had not started yet. Prices may follow oil prices [7] Steel - On March 19, rb2605 was reported at 3135 yuan per ton, and hc2605 at 3302 yuan per ton. Due to the escalation of the Middle - East conflict, the global economic risk increased, and steel prices may adjust slightly in the short term [7] Alumina - On March 19, ao2605 was reported at 3027 yuan per ton. Geopolitical tensions and macro - panic led to a decline in the non - ferrous metal sector. Although the price was supported by supply concerns, the oversupply situation remained, and the price would oscillate at a high level [7] Shanghai Aluminum - On March 19, al2605 was reported at 24180 yuan per ton. The US interest - rate remained stable, and the Middle - East situation intensified. The supply side was stable, and the demand side showed flexible restocking, but overall downstream support was still weak [8]

Report Summary 1. Overview of Market Performance on March 18, 2026 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.32% to close at 4062.98, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.05% to close at 14187.80, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.02% to close at 3346.37. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.06 trillion yuan, a decrease of 16.35 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index Futures: The CSI 300 index oscillated and consolidated, closing at 4658.33, a rise of 20.89 compared to the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures Analysis 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted coke index adjusted and consolidated, closing at 1741.7, a decrease of 11.6 compared to the previous day. Coke enterprises' operating loads remained stable, coke inventories decreased, and the profit per ton of coke turned negative. Steel mills' production was restricted, and the demand side was affected. The spot price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted coking coal index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1188.2 yuan, a decrease of 12.5 compared to the previous day. Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, mines and coal washing plants increased their operations, and clean coal inventories accumulated. The downstream coke enterprises' operations remained stable, coking coal inventories increased, and iron water production declined. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 clean coal was 1435 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1350 yuan/ton on the futures market [3][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar rose on Tuesday due to the increase in crude oil prices, but the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract on Wednesday did not follow. Constrained by factors such as negative import data and a decrease in spot prices, long - position holders closed their positions, causing the futures price to decline. Affected by technical factors, the contract oscillated and slightly rebounded at night. China's sugar imports in February were 240,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1410.8%. The cumulative imports from January to February were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 563.1%. Brazil's expected sugarcane planting area in 2026 was 9.373731 million hectares, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous month's forecast and 2.0% from the previous year. The sugarcane output was estimated to be 700.380132 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous month's forecast and 0.4% from the previous year [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed an oscillating downward trend on Wednesday, mainly due to high crude oil prices potentially restricting global economic growth and affecting demand, and the steady progress of the tapping season in Yunnan, which would increase the supply of domestic new rubber. Affected by technical factors, the rubber futures oscillated and slightly declined at night. In January 2026, Indonesia exported 102,000 tons of natural rubber, a year - on - year decrease of 29%. In the first two months of 2026, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports were 321,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% compared to the same period in 2025 [4][5]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International Market: On March 18, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1163.75 cents per bushel, a rise of 0.63%. The strengthening of crude oil prices supported soybean prices. As of March 12, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 61%, lower than 70% in the same period last year. Brazil's soybean exports in March were expected to be 16.32 million tons, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 16.47 million tons [5]. - Domestic Market: On March 18, the main soybean meal M2605 contract closed at 3036 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11%. International companies suspended some Brazilian soybean exports last week, and the slow harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans led to concerns about the tight supply of imported soybeans in China from March to April. The trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly, and inventories decreased significantly. Currently, the quarantine policy for Brazilian soybeans has been relaxed, and the daily transportation volume has returned to normal. It is expected that the arrival volume in China from April to May will still increase significantly [5]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 18, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 10475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06%. On the supply side, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale breeding enterprises in March increased significantly compared to the previous month. To complete the monthly slaughter task and relieve financial pressure, the overall sales enthusiasm was high, and the slaughter rhythm continued to accelerate. The market supply remained abundant. The inventory of breeding sows was still at a high level, the production capacity base was large, and with the improvement of breeding efficiency, the effective supply continued to be abundant. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, pork consumption entered the off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork were weak, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was low, and the demand side's ability to absorb was insufficient, providing limited support for pig prices [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 18, the decline of international oil prices during the day dragged down the overall correction of the oil and fat sector. The palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange oscillated and declined from a high level. The main contract P2605 closed with a doji candlestick. The highest price was 9992, the lowest price was 9666, and the closing price was 9692, a decrease of 2.63% compared to the previous trading day. Indonesia may increase the consumption of biodiesel made from palm oil if global oil supply becomes difficult to guarantee. The Indonesian president called on producers and dealers of coal, crude palm oil, and their derivatives to prioritize domestic demand before exporting and implemented stricter controls on commodity exports [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2604 contract closed at 98590 yuan/ton, with an opening price of 99120 yuan, a highest price of 99530 yuan, and a lowest price of 98040 yuan. The trading volume was 106,663 lots, and the open interest was 174,221 lots. The price rose during the day and then fell back, and was under pressure in the late trading, effectively breaking through the 100,000 - yuan mark. LME copper inventories increased by 18,775 tons to 330,375 tons, reaching a new high since August 2019. The copper warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1291 tons to 324,289 tons, indicating significant inventory pressure. The spot price of Shanghai No. 1 electrolytic copper was 98990 yuan/ton, with a premium of 400 yuan/ton over the futures main contract. The downstream's willingness to replenish inventory at low prices improved [5][6]. 2.8 Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15235 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 2 lots compared to the previous trading day. As it entered the sales peak season, textile enterprises purchased as needed [6]. 2.9 Logs - The main log 2605 contract opened at 812, with a lowest price of 803, a highest price of 815, and a closing price of 806, with an increase of 355 lots in open interest. On March 18, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was also 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [6]. 2.10 Iron Ore - On March 18, the main iron ore 2605 contract oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.12% and a closing price of 811 yuan. The iron ore shipments increased compared to the previous period, the arrival volume decreased again, the port inventories continued to accumulate, and the iron water production continued to decline. However, with the lifting of production restrictions on steel mills, there was a demand for replenishing inventory due to rigid needs, and the demand for iron water might recover. In the short term, the iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [6]. 2.11 Asphalt - On March 18, the main asphalt 2606 contract oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.11% and a closing price of 4400 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, and inventories were at a low level. However, downstream demand had not started yet. In the short term, the asphalt price might follow the trend of oil prices [6]. 2.12 Steel - On March 18, the rb2605 contract closed at 3140 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3310 yuan/ton. The current downstream terminal construction situation was average, and the demand recovery was still slow. Although the futures price of steel rose the previous day, some merchants slightly raised their prices, but the trading volume was small, and most actual transactions were at low prices. At the same time, the international situation was volatile, with many uncertain factors. In the short term, steel prices might fluctuate within a narrow range [6]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 18, the ao2605 contract closed at 3048 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the production capacity shut down before the Spring Festival had not resumed, and some roasting production capacity was restricted last week. The commissioning time of new production capacity was undetermined, so the overall supply pressure was controllable. On the demand side, the slight increase in electrolytic aluminum production capacity drove the recovery of procurement demand. In the spot market, the spot price continued to stabilize and rise. The willingness of holders to sell at high prices increased, and the enthusiasm of downstream buyers to enter the market improved. The trading atmosphere in the morning was active. In the afternoon, the futures price continued to be strong, the holders' reluctance to sell increased, and the downstream still had a rhythm of chasing the rising price to replenish inventory. The market's spot buying interest boosted the alumina futures price, and the overall trading performance was quite remarkable [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 18, the al2605 contract closed at 24800 yuan/ton. At the macro level, the military action of the US and Israel against Iran entered the third week, and geopolitical risks significantly increased. Iran attacked the Port of Fujairah in the UAE three times within four days, causing the suspension of shipments at this key hub (accounting for about 1% of global demand). The substantial closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced the UAE to cut its crude oil production by more than half. Although the White House said that oil tankers had begun to sail sporadically and the conflict might last for several weeks, analysts warned that any attack on oil tankers would trigger a serious situation. In this context, the market generally expected that major central banks such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank would keep interest rates unchanged this week. However, given the soaring oil prices pushing up inflation, the Federal Reserve's statement might turn hawkish, suggesting that the window for interest rate cuts would be further postponed. Domestically, the fundamental situation was "increasing supply and weak demand." The capacity replacement project of electrolytic aluminum plants was put into operation, and the high smelting profit boosted the supply expectation. Social inventories continued to accumulate. Downstream only maintained rigid - demand procurement, the spot discount pattern continued, and buyers' bearish and wait - and - see sentiment was strong, resulting in light trading [6][7]. 3. Market Outlook and Suggestions - Soybean Meal: Focus on weather changes in South America, the progress of the situation in the Middle East, and the rhythm of soybean arrivals [5]. - Live Pigs: Pay attention to the progress of the reduction of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the recovery of terminal consumption [5]. - Shanghai Copper: Track the progress of inventory reduction and the recovery of downstream peak - season demand [6]. - Logs: Pay attention to spot prices, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for prices [6].