021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2026 年 1 月 8 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：1月7日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | 3111 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 8 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（1 月 7 日）A 股三大指数小幅上涨，沪指日线 14 连阳。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.05%，收 报 4085.77 点；深证成指涨 0.06%，收报 14030.56 点；创业板指涨 0.31%，收报 3329.69 点。沪深两市成交额达 到 28818 亿，较昨日放量 492 亿。 沪深 300 指数 1 月 7 日回调整理。收盘 4776.67，环比下跌 14.03。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】1 月 7 日焦炭加权指数强势，收盘价 1774.5，环比上涨 131.6。 1 月 7 日焦煤加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1165.8 元，环比上涨 87.3。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：库存转向轻微去库。短期煤焦存在两个主要价格驱动，一个是冬储炉料的补库需求预期，尤其是在焦 炭连续四轮提降下，价格预期到相对合理区间，预期对补库力度提振较大。另一个是近期南美宏观局势变化影响 能源市场不确定性出现。 焦煤：临汾低硫主焦煤 1500 元/吨（0），乌海 1/3 焦煤 1110 元/ ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（1 月 6 日）A 股三大指数延续强势表现，沪指日线 13 连阳，创 2015 年 7 月以来的逾十 年新高。截止收盘，沪指涨 1.50%，收报 4083.67 点；深证成指涨 1.40%，收报 14022.55 点；创业板指涨 0.75%， 收报 3319.29 点。沪深两市成交额达到 28326 亿，较昨日放量 2651 亿。 沪深 300 指数 1 月 6 日强势依旧。收盘 4790.69，环比上涨 72.95。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】1 月 6 日焦炭加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 1654.7，环比下跌 11.8。 1 月 6 日焦煤加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 1096.2 元，环比下跌 0.1。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：连续四轮提降落地，焦化利润多处于盈亏平衡之间，市场或博弈第五轮降价，焦企亏损面预期扩大， 焦炉生产负荷或环比走低，但现阶段焦炭刚需支撑同步走弱，且钢厂采购延续按需节奏。 焦煤：元旦节后蒙煤通关量快速恢复，而国内矿山开工率如期下降，坑口竞拍成交状况 ...

广大 H ST = D3 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月6日 @剑三(Z0019556) 数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证・在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考。 报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。 欢迎关注微信公众号 | | 品种 | 合約 | 【每日精选观点】 观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铝 | AL2602 | 震荡偏强 | | | | 甲醇 | MA2605 | 短期偏强 | | | | 铁矿石 | 12605 | 短多尝试 | | | | 苹果 | AP2605 | 震荡偏强 | | | | 白银 | AG2604 | 偏强震荡 | | | | | | 【全品种日评】 | | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | | | IF2603 | | A股指数连续反弹,宽基ETF近期亦明显 ...

国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（12 月 31 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指 11 连阳收官。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.09%， 收报 3968.84 点；深证成指跌 0.58%，收报 13525.02 点；创业板指跌 1.23%，收报 3203.17 点。沪深两市成交额 20659 亿，较昨日缩量 958 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 31 日回调整理。收盘 4629.94，环比下跌 21.34。（数据来源：东方财富网） 客服产品系列•日评 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 31 日焦炭加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1691.8，环比下跌 18.5。 12 月 31 日焦煤加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 1112.5 元，环比上涨 8.1。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭现货三轮提降落地后，焦企出现小幅亏损，叠加前期环保检查影响，钢联数据显示上周样本焦企 产能利用率下降，焦炭日均产量下滑。需求，钢联数据显示钢厂铁水产量环比继续下降，但周度降幅收窄。 焦煤：临近年末，因完成生产任务减产煤矿数量增加，高频数据显示矿方开工率持续下降，国内煤炭供应环 比 ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 钢材: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收跌。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、上周（12 | 月 | 22 | 日-12 | 月 | 28 | 日），10 | 个重点城市新建商品房成交（签约）面积 | 总计 | 293.66 | 万平方米，环比增长 | 31.6%，同比下降 | 27.7%。 | | 2、据 | Mysteel | 不完全整理，2025 | 年超 | 130 | 个钢铁项目开工或投产。 | 3、2026 | 年国补方案 ...

＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：12月30日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | 3130 | 3130 | 3148 | 3128 | 3134 | -0.10% | 635,547 | 1,560,806 | 30,014 | 0.70 | | HC2605 | 3287 | 3285 | 3298 | 3278 | 3282 | -0.33% | 311,439 | 1,283,319 | 7,022 | 0.12 | | SS2602 | 12910 | 12925 | 13200 | 12925 | 13090 | 1.28% | 181,552 | 88,597 | 4,096 | 0.48 | | ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（12 月 30 日）沪指几乎平收，日线"十连阳"，收报 3965.12 点；深证成指涨 0.49%， 收报 13604.07 点；创业板指涨 0.63%，收报 3242.90 点。沪深两市成交额 21426 亿，较昨日微幅放量 33 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 30 日震荡整理。收盘 4651.28，环比上涨 11.91。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 30 日焦炭加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 1710.2，环比上涨 9.7。 12 月 30 日焦煤加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 1113.9 元，环比上涨 14.2。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价下跌，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1450 元/吨，较上期价格跌 10。供应， 邢台、天津、唐山、石家庄地区部分钢厂对焦炭开启第四轮提降 50-55 元/吨，于 2026 年 1 月 1 日零点执行，焦 炭第四轮提降正式开启，近期煤价小幅回落，焦企处于微利状态，部分焦企处于亏损状态，整体开工积极性尚可， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the stock index strategy, some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. With the growth of aerospace, satellite, robot, and battery sectors, the growth - style CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market, and it is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index before the New Year's Day. For the treasury bond strategy, it is recommended to conduct band operations in the volatile pattern. In the precious metals market, due to increased short - term fluctuations, it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks. For various agricultural, livestock, energy - chemical, black - building materials, and non - ferrous metal products, corresponding trading strategies and risk - avoidance measures are provided according to their respective market conditions [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices in the growth style have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market from corporate to household and then to securities accounts. It is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - related indices as the main targets before New Year's Day and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4] Treasury Bond - The fourth - quarter macroeconomic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the policy focus. The central bank will adjust the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy. Treasury bond futures maintained a volatile pattern in December and are expected to continue after the New Year [9] Precious Metals - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in January next year is below 20%. The CME Group raised the performance margin for gold, silver, and other metal futures, triggering a short - term sharp correction in precious metals. It is necessary to adjust positions and control risks [13] Agricultural and Livestock Products Three Oils and Two Meals - Hold existing long positions in the 2605 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, but do not chase the high. Be wary of the potential negative impact of the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory after the festival. Hold long positions in the two meals at low levels. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [16][21] Sugar and Jujube - For sugar, the domestic sugar market is currently dull. During the festival, focus on the trend of ICE raw sugar. It is advisable to wait and see, and reduce long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options. For jujube, there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging [24] Cotton, Apple, and Log - Cotton may adjust in the short term, but the bottom support is strong. Apple's futures price is likely to remain in a high - level range - bound due to the structural contradiction of low inventory and low high - quality fruit rate. Logs are expected to maintain a low - level range - bound, and it is recommended to conduct range operations and pay attention to capital trends [17][26][27] Corn, Pig, and Egg - For corn, it is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and hold a light or empty position during the festival. Pig prices are seasonally strong in the short term, and it is necessary to manage positions during the festival. Egg prices are oscillating strongly in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the scale of chicken culling in January and manage positions during the festival [18][29][30][32] Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The EIA inventory increased. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela are rising. The market believes that there is a chance for the Russia - Ukraine situation to ease, and there are concerns about long - term oversupply. It is recommended to hold a light position and be wary of the escalation of geopolitical risks [38] Lithium Carbonate - Some positive material factories are jointly overhauling, but the production of some links is decreasing. The non - ferrous and precious metals sector has corrected before the festival, and the exchange has introduced restrictive measures. It is necessary to pay attention to position management and the support level of 115,000 yuan/ton [40] Methanol - The port inventory is high, but the port market is stronger than the inland market. Iranian methanol production has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decline significantly in mid - to - late January. The main contract has strong support below and is limited by polyolefin prices above. It is recommended to continue holding long positions and pay attention to port inventory reduction and Iranian plant operations [43] Urea - The inventory pressure of upstream factories has been relieved. Some urea plants are reducing production due to environmental protection. The spring plowing season is coming. The short - term price is slightly strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [46] Bottle Chips - The production and supply of bottle chips have changed little, and downstream demand is gradually improving. The short - term price fluctuates with raw materials, and it is advisable to take a bullish view. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [48] Pure Benzene - The arbitrage window between Asia and America has opened, and the port is slightly accumulating inventory, but the speed has slowed down. The downstream demand has declined, and the short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to take a bullish view on dips and pay attention to port arrivals and the transaction price in the US dollar pure - benzene market. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [51] Rubber System - For natural rubber, the upward momentum has weakened, the port inventory is accumulating, and some downstream tire enterprises have maintenance plans. It is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging. For synthetic rubber, the price of upstream raw materials has risen, and the cost is supportive. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions or use options for hedging [54] Black and Building Materials Steel - The supply and demand of the five major steel products have decreased, the inventory is being depleted, and the winter storage market has not started yet. The inventory may accumulate later. The market is expected to be volatile during the festival. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [61] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are expected to change little during the festival. The daily average pig iron production has increased slightly, the arrival volume has decreased, and the shipping volume has increased seasonally. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the shipping situation of foreign mines. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [64] Coking Coal and Coke - The coal mine production is stable, and the import volume is high. The downstream steel mill profitability has stopped falling, and the pig iron production has stabilized. The traditional winter storage demand is not obvious, but the rigid demand before the Spring Festival may support the price. The fourth round of coke price cuts may be implemented on January 1. The double - coke market is expected to be range - bound before and after the festival, and it is not recommended to chase short positions [67] Ferroalloys - The supply of manganese silicon is relatively loose, and the supply of silicon iron is in a tight - balance state. Due to the winter storage expectation, the double - silicon may have a concentrated replenishment after the festival. The market sentiment is positive, and the market performance is strong. It is recommended to hold a light position and not hold short positions during the festival [72] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract is near the technical resistance level and close to the overbought state. Combined with year - end capital repatriation and profit - taking, short - term fluctuations will intensify [74][79] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum is in a game between cost support and inventory pressure. It has no basis for a deep decline but lacks demand - driven upward momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival [75][81] Alumina - The alumina price is in a historical low range, but lacks clear demand - driven rebound momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival. After the festival, pay attention to the downstream resumption rhythm and inventory depletion speed [76][85] Caustic Soda - The current price is at a historical low. It is not recommended to chase short positions unilaterally. Pay attention to the maintenance announcements of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu and the procurement dynamics of alumina factories before the festival [76][89]

客服产品系列•日评 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 29 日焦炭加权指数维回调整理，收盘价 1674.6，环比下跌 21.6。 12 月 29 日焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价 1080.3 元，环比下跌 11.6。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：累积提降 3 轮，累积降幅为湿熄焦炭下调 150 元/吨、干熄焦炭下调 165 元/吨，后续提降预期仍存。 本期铁水微升，关注钢厂后续检修。 焦煤：国产煤供应仍处季节性低位。蒙煤方面，甘其毛都口岸通关保持高位，口岸库存继续累积，已超 370 万吨，询价偏低，交投氛围一般。 据海关总署数据显示，截止 10 月底，2025 年中国进口炼焦煤达 9886.90 万吨，同比下降 4.8%。其中 10 月 份我国炼焦煤总进口量达 1059.32 万吨，环比下跌 3.02%，同比上涨 6.39%。出口焦炭方面，根据海关总署公布 的出口焦炭数据，1–10 月中国焦炭出口总量为 621.89 万吨，同比降 14.05%。其中 10 月焦炭出口 72.74 万吨， 环比增 34%，同比增 49.92%。（数据来源：东方财富网） 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 星 ...