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南华期货(603093)境内外双轮驱动 业绩高增可期
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 06:33
Core Viewpoint - The company is facing revenue pressure due to declining domestic and international interest rates and competitive fee structures in the futures brokerage market, but the dual-driven business model is expected to support high growth in performance [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 31.03 yuan. Projected revenue and net profit for 2025H1 are 1.101 billion yuan and 231 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -58.27% and +0.46% respectively [2]. - The weighted average ROE decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 5.51% [2]. - The EPS forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 0.82, 0.97, and 1.15 yuan, respectively, up from previous estimates [2]. Revenue Drivers - Interest income for 2025H1 is expected to decline by 27.80% to 253 million yuan, significantly impacting adjusted revenue [3]. - The company's overseas subsidiaries achieved a 26.46% growth in futures margin, indicating strong momentum in international business [3]. - The net commission rate has decreased due to market competition, leading to a 13.88% drop in net income from fees and commissions to 235 million yuan [3]. Business Growth Potential - The company is advancing plans for H-share financing, which is expected to enhance its financial service capabilities and strengthen its self-clearing system [4]. - The ongoing internationalization of the RMB is anticipated to expand domestic business opportunities, particularly in futures and foreign exchange markets [4]. Catalysts - Successful H-share listing and financing [5]. - Continuous progress in RMB internationalization [5].