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万亿城市在扩容,收缩城市也在扩容
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-09 02:36
Core Viewpoint - The concept of the "trillion-yuan club" is gaining attention as cities like Wenzhou are expected to surpass the 1 trillion yuan GDP mark, with others like Xuzhou and Dalian likely to follow soon [3] Group 1: Economic Growth and the "Trillion-Yuan Club" - The "trillion-yuan club" was first established around 2012 when Shenzhen's GDP reached 1.1 trillion yuan, becoming the fourth city to cross this threshold after Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou [3] - The expansion of the "trillion-yuan club" reflects the continuous growth of China's overall economy and indicates significant changes in regional economic structures [5] - As of now, nearly 30 cities are part of this club, with discussions emerging about "three trillion" and "five trillion" cities [5] Group 2: Changing Dynamics of Economic Growth - The growth associated with "trillion-yuan cities" has evolved, especially as China's GDP growth rate has slowed from 9.2% in 2011 to an expected 5% in 2024, leading to more cities experiencing negative growth or growth significantly below the national average [5][6] - Many cities with shrinking populations still see GDP growth, which is linked to a long-standing "growthism" approach by local governments that prioritize economic expansion over public service optimization [6] - The notion of "shrinking cities" is often avoided by local governments, despite the reality that some cities are experiencing population decline while still increasing their GDP [6]
对“万亿俱乐部”祛魅
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2026-01-08 10:31
Core Viewpoint - The concept of "trillion-dollar club" cities reflects the ongoing evolution of China's economic landscape, with cities like Wenzhou expected to join this club, while the implications of such growth are increasingly complex and nuanced [3][5]. Group 1: Economic Growth and "Trillion-Dollar Club" - Wenzhou is projected to surpass a GDP of 1 trillion yuan, joining the "trillion-dollar club," with other cities like Xuzhou and Dalian likely to follow soon [3]. - The "trillion-dollar club" was first established around 2012, with Shenzhen being the fourth city to cross the 1 trillion yuan threshold, highlighting the uneven economic development across China [3]. - The term has become a competitive goal for local governments, often appearing in planning documents and government reports, despite the lack of substantial policy implications [4]. Group 2: Changing Economic Dynamics - The expansion of the "trillion-dollar club" now includes nearly 30 cities, reflecting China's overall economic growth, but the meaning of being a "trillion-dollar city" has evolved as the country transitions away from high-speed growth [5]. - In 2011, China's GDP growth rate was 9.2%, with most cities experiencing growth; by 2024, the growth rate is expected to drop to 5%, with more cities facing negative growth or significantly lower growth than the national average [5]. - The phenomenon of urban polarization is evident, where cities that have crossed the "trillion" threshold may be benefiting from the economic decline of surrounding areas, leading to a dual expansion of "trillion-dollar cities" and "shrinking cities" [5][6]. Group 3: Growth vs. Quality of Life - Many cities experiencing population decline still see GDP growth, a paradox linked to local governments' adherence to a "growthism" model, focusing on economic expansion rather than optimizing public services [6]. - The entrenched belief in prioritizing GDP growth over other metrics has led to a situation where cities continue to expand infrastructure despite population loss [6]. - Embracing the concept of "shrinking cities" and moving away from the obsession with "trillion" status could lead to more sustainable and livable urban environments, focusing on quality rather than sheer economic size [6].
对“万亿俱乐部”祛魅
经济观察报· 2026-01-08 10:29
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for cities to acknowledge economic "contraction" and move away from the obsession with achieving a GDP of over 1 trillion yuan, suggesting that this shift is a natural progression towards creating more livable and beautiful urban environments [1][7]. Group 1: Economic Growth and the "Trillion Club" - The "Trillion Club" concept emerged around 2012, with Shenzhen being the fourth city to surpass the 1 trillion yuan GDP mark, setting a benchmark for understanding China's uneven economic development [3]. - The expansion of the "Trillion Club" reflects the continuous growth of China's overall economic output and indicates significant changes in regional economic structures [5]. - As of now, nearly 30 cities are part of the "Trillion Club," with new members like Wenzhou expected to join soon, highlighting the competitive nature of achieving this economic milestone [3][5]. Group 2: Changing Economic Context - The GDP growth rate in China has decreased from 9.2% in 2011 to an expected 5% in 2024, with an increasing number of cities experiencing negative growth or growth significantly below the national average [5]. - The phenomenon of urban polarization is evident, where larger cities attract economic resources, while some cities that have crossed the "trillion" threshold may be growing at the expense of surrounding areas [6]. Group 3: Growth vs. Quality of Life - Many cities are still focused on growth despite experiencing population decline, leading to a paradox where GDP may increase even as the population shrinks [6]. - The article argues for a shift from growth-oriented policies to a focus on quality of life, suggesting that cities should embrace the idea of "contraction" to create more sustainable and attractive living environments [7].