Report Overview - Report Title: Urea September 2025 Monthly Report: Supply-Demand Shift, Price Range May Widen [1] - Report Date: September 1, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Zhang Ying from the Energy and Chemical Industry Service Center of the Industrial Service Headquarters of Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of urea are both changing. The supply is expected to increase with capacity expansion and increased daily production in September, while demand will also gradually show an increasing trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm changes, and the price fluctuation range is expected to expand [41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Market Review - In August, the urea futures price oscillated, briefly surging before falling back. On August 29, the Urea 01 contract closed at 1,746 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the end of July. The spot price was firm but actual trading was weak. On August 29, the Henan market price was 1,727 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the end of July [5]. 3.2 Urea Capacity and Production Analysis - In August, the number of urea production device overhauls increased, and the operating rate first rose and then fell. By the end of the month, the operating rate was 81.73%, down 3.2 percentage points from the end of last month. The operating rate of natural gas - based urea continued to decline, reaching 71.8% at the end of the month, down 6.82 percentage points from the end of last month [9]. - In August, three new production capacities were put into operation, with a total of 200,000 tons from Shandong Jinkong Riyue New Materials Co., Ltd., 1 million tons from Xinjiang Xinji Energy Chemical Co., Ltd., and 800,000 tons from Anhui Jinmei Zhongneng Chemical Co., Ltd. From January to August 2025, the total new urea production capacity put into operation was about 4.4 million tons [9]. - In August, the daily average urea output was still higher than the historical value, ranging from a minimum of 189,800 tons to a maximum of 194,400 tons, and currently maintaining at the level of 190,000 - 200,000 tons. The estimated urea output in August was 6.0605 million tons, a decrease of 27,500 tons month - on - month and an increase of 829,500 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the estimated urea output was 48.154 million tons, an increase of nearly 5.68 million tons year - on - year, with a supply growth rate of 13.37% [12]. 3.3 Urea Cost and Profit Analysis - In August, the market price of anthracite first rose and then stabilized. The average monthly gross profit margin of coal - based urea was estimated to be 2.58%, a decrease of 5.68 percentage points month - on - month and 3.66 percentage points year - on - year. The estimated average monthly gross profit margin of gas - based urea in July was - 10.03%, a decrease of 1.97 percentage points month - on - month and 14.05 percentage points year - on - year [16]. 3.4 Urea Demand Analysis - From January to July 2025, the apparent consumption of urea was 41.455 million tons, an increase of about 4.428 million tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 11.96%. In August 2025, the urea production - sales ratio was maintained at 95.4% - 96.6%, at a relatively high level [19]. 3.5 Urea Agricultural Demand Analysis - In 2024, the national grain sown area was 1.79 billion mu, an increase of 5.258 million mu from the previous year, a growth of 0.3%, and it has been increasing for five consecutive years. With the construction of high - standard farmland, the single - yield level of grain is expected to be effectively improved. The demand for summer fertilizers such as rice and corn is being released [21]. 3.6 Urea Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - In August, the operating rate of compound fertilizers first rose and then fell. The estimated output of compound fertilizers in August was 4.76 million tons, an increase of 1.48 million tons month - on - month and a decrease of 770,000 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the estimated output of compound fertilizers was 33.62 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.54%. In September, it is expected to gradually enter the peak sales season, and the probability of dealers' centralized pick - up will increase [27]. - In August, the average operating rate of melamine enterprises in China was 54.36%, a decrease of 7.06 percentage points from the previous month. The monthly output was 115,200 tons, a decrease of 18,800 tons from the previous month [30]. 3.7 Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to July 2025, the total fertilizer exports in China were 22.83 million tons, an increase of 7.156 million tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 45.65%. The export volume of mineral nitrogen fertilizers and chemical nitrogen fertilizers was 12.33 million tons, an increase of 3.767 million tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 43.99%. The urea export volume was 644,000 tons, an increase of 426,700 tons year - on - year [33]. 3.8 Urea Inventory Level Analysis - At the end of August, the urea enterprise inventory was 1.003 million tons, an increase of 246,000 tons from the beginning of the month, changing from destocking to inventory accumulation. At the end of August, the urea port inventory was 790,000 tons, an increase of 270,000 tons from the end of last month. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 6,473, equivalent to 129,460 tons of urea, an increase of 64,800 tons from the end of last month [35][38]. 3.9 Urea Market Outlook - Supply: There is still an expectation of continuous urea capacity release. The concentrated overhaul period of coal - based urea devices has passed. Although the overall operating rate of gas - based devices is lower than in previous years, the overall urea supply may maintain a year - on - year growth rate of 8 - 12%, and the daily average urea output will maintain at the level of 190,000 - 200,000 tons. - Demand: (1) Agricultural demand: The concentrated fertilization period for summer harvest and sowing is over, and other agricultural fertilization is sporadic. (2) Industrial demand: Compound fertilizers are in the pre - sale stage of autumn fertilizers. As the pre - sale progresses, the operating rate of fertilizer enterprises will gradually increase in the second half of the month, and the production of autumn fertilizers will start. In September, it is the traditional sales stage of compound fertilizers. In the middle and late ten days, the pick - up volume of dealers will increase, and the production of fertilizer enterprises will also increase simultaneously. The industrial demand for melamine, urea - formaldehyde resin, desulfurization and denitrification will fluctuate slightly. (3) Export demand: The urea export volume in July was lower than expected, while the urea port inventory exceeded the previous export peak level. It is expected that the export volume will be concentrated in August - September. - Market outlook: Recently, the number of urea device overhauls has decreased, and the supply has recovered month - on - month, with the daily output running at 190,000 - 200,000 tons. The agricultural fertilization demand is sporadic. After the continuous increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, it began to decline. The peak operating rate of compound fertilizers is lower than in previous years. It is expected that the progress of compound fertilizers this year will be delayed, and other industrial demand will remain stable. The downstream of urea continues to hold a wait - and - see attitude, and the limited actual transactions have led to continuous inventory accumulation of enterprises. In September, with capacity release and expected increase in daily output, the demand will also gradually show an increasing trend. Both supply and demand are changing, and attention should be paid to the rhythm changes. It is expected that the price fluctuation range may expand. Key points to focus on include urea capacity release, urea device production cuts and overhauls, compound fertilizer operating rate, export policies, coal prices, and the macro - environment [41].