| | | | | 尿素早评20250711: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 单位 7月10日 7月9日 | | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (絶対值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1733.00 1720.00 | 1736.00 1700.00 | -3.00 20.00 | -0.17% 1.18% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1737.00 | 1736.00 | 1.00 | 0.06% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1777.00 | 1770.00 | 7.00 | 0.40% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1860.00 | 1840.00 | 20.00 | 1.09% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1850.00 | 1840.00 | 10.00 | 0.54% | | | (小顆粒) | 河 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The international urea price has boosted the sentiment of the domestic market. Although the current industrial demand is weak, export orders are still being shipped, and there is a partial increase in agricultural demand, with continuous inventory reduction. The nitrogen association has announced the export guidance price for urea. Overall, the international price is rising, and the domestic urea sentiment is also high. Supported by factory export orders and ongoing port collection, the futures market still has support and will remain mainly oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to export policy changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened high and closed low, with a late - day plunge but still closing up. The spot price continued to rise, and the order - receiving situation was good. The daily production of urea changed little, and some previously overhauled devices were expected to resume production, increasing output. Both agricultural and industrial demand were cautious in purchasing, mainly for replenishing inventory as needed. Agricultural demand was better than industrial demand, and it was expected to end in the Northeast and North China this month. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remained low, with only a slight increase. The factory was in the early stage of autumn fertilizer production, mainly clearing inventory, and was waiting and seeing, purchasing urea only as needed. Despite weak industrial demand, export orders were being shipped, and inventory was continuously decreasing. The nitrogen association announced the export guidance price for urea. The market was expected to be mainly oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short term [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1780 yuan/ton, fluctuated strongly during the day, and finally closed at 1777 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The trading volume was 208,229 lots, a decrease of 2,957 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 1,642 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,140 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed [2] - **Spot**: The spot price continued to rise, and the order - receiving situation was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei factories ranged from 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract was 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [7] - **Supply Data**: On July 10, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,400 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.63% [10] - **Downstream Data**: From July 4th to July 10th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 29.83%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.56%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week [11] Warehouse Receipt Data - On July 10, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2,645, an increase of 400 compared to the previous trading day, with 400 more in Meishan Xindu [3]

| | | | | 尿素早评20250708: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 変化值 单位 7月7日 7月4日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | (矩对值) | (相对值) | | | (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1712.00 1716.00 | 1702.00 1709.00 | 10.00 7.00 | 0.59% 0.41% | | | 尿素期货价格 | | | | | | | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1748.00 | 1735.00 | 13.00 | 0.75% | | 期现价格 | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1820.00 1670.00 | 1810.00 1680.00 | 10.00 -10.00 | 0.55% -0.60% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1810.00 | 1810.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | (小顆粒) | 河 ...

期货盯盘神器专属文章 中东局势缓和及伊朗、埃及尿素复产的预期引发价格修正，印度招标或仍是主导价格的关键！中国上半 年出口配额即将耗尽，约X万吨的下半年配额将于何时发放？ 相关链接 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250702: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 单位 7月1日 6月30日 | | | | | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (矩对值) | (相对值) | | 尿素期货价格 | (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1682.00 1790.00 1630.00 | 1682.00 1800.00 1660.00 | 0.00 -10.00 -30.00 | 0.00% -0.56% -1.81% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1694.00 | 1696.00 | -2.00 | -0.12% | | | | UR09 | | 1721.00 | 1712.00 | 9.00 | 0.53% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1780.00 | 1780.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | (小顆粒) | ...

【2025年下半年尿素市场多空因素交织，出口政策成主导核心】2025年上半年，尿素行业新投产能350 万吨左右，带动日产长期超20万吨。下半年计划新投产能约280万吨，7 - 8月高温或使供应提升减缓，9 月后日产有望突破21万吨，11月中旬气头企业季节性限产，但供应降幅有限。若新增产能投产顺利，年 底产能增量达635万吨，同比增8.22%；全年产量有望达7000万吨，同比增速8.14%。 需求方面，上半年 农需旺季，虽受多重因素影响有反季节性现象，但农业需求仍高速增长，1 - 5月消费量增速8.89%。下 半年农需和工业需求均减弱，消费增速明显回落，预计全年消费增幅4.5% - 5%，消费量6343.15 - 6373.5万吨，低于产量。 出口及国际市场不确定性高，全球局势扰动尿素成本、生产及运输。我国出口 政策是否松动、对印度供货是否恢复，影响出口格局和市场情绪。若无政策松动，出口难影响国内供 需，但需关注政策动态对市场情绪的扰动。 库存上，上半年企业库存维持高位，2 - 3月去库，4 - 6月反 季节性累库。下半年产能提升、内需减弱，库存压力仍高，有进一步累库风险，若出口或需求超预期， 库存有望转移。 ...

多头先别着急，尿素结构性紧张可能仍未消除！伊朗、埃及供应逐步恢复，印度招标价仍将决定价格走 向，中国尿素出口可能……点击了解详情。 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250630: 出口消息提振,现货逐步企稳 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | | 单位 | 6月27日 | 6月26日 | 变化值 (絶対值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1684.00 1696.00 1810.00 | 1682.00 1691.00 1800.00 | 2.00 5.00 10.00 | 0.12% 0.30% 0.56% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1717.00 | 1724.00 | -7.00 | -0.41% | | 国内现货价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1660.00 | 1650.00 | 10.00 | 0.61% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1800.00 | 1800.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | (小顆粒) | | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1800.00 | 1800.00 | 0.00 | ...

尿素日报 | 2025-06-27 中性。 风险 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 农需稳步上涨，工业需求偏弱 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-26，尿素主力收盘1724元/吨（-16）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1800 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+40）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1810元/吨（+30）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差： 76元/吨（+56）；河南基差：76元/吨（+46）；江苏基差：86元/吨（+46）；尿素生产利润270元/吨（+40），出口利 润693元/吨（-8）。 供应端：截至2025-06-26，企业产能利用率85.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为109.59 万吨（-4.01），港口样本 库存量为38.10 万吨（+8.60）。 需求端：截至2025-06-26，复合肥产能利用率30.11%（-1.71%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.21%（-1.11%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.11）。 下游农业追肥备肥继续推进，农业需求稳步上涨，但工业需求继续走弱，复合肥产能利用率继续下滑，三聚氰胺 开工低 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250626: 出口消息提振,现货逐步企稳 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 单位 6月25日 6月24日 | | | | (矩对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | 尿素期货价格 | | UR01 UR05 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1697.00 1705.00 | 1667.00 1686.00 | 30.00 19.00 | 1.80% 1.13% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1740.00 | 1698.00 | 42.00 | 2.47% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1760.00 | 1750.00 | 10.00 | 0.57% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1650.00 | 1620.00 | 30.00 | 1.85% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1770.00 | 1760.00 | 10.00 | 0.57% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1790.0 ...