Report Overview - Report Title: Urea September 2025 Monthly Report: Supply-Demand Shift, Price Range May Widen [1] - Report Date: September 1, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Zhang Ying from the Energy and Chemical Industry Service Center of the Industrial Service Headquarters of Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of urea are both changing. The supply is expected to increase with capacity expansion and increased daily production in September, while demand will also gradually show an increasing trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm changes, and the price fluctuation range is expected to expand [41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Market Review - In August, the urea futures price oscillated, briefly surging before falling back. On August 29, the Urea 01 contract closed at 1,746 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the end of July. The spot price was firm but actual trading was weak. On August 29, the Henan market price was 1,727 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the end of July [5]. 3.2 Urea Capacity and Production Analysis - In August, the number of urea production device overhauls increased, and the operating rate first rose and then fell. By the end of the month, the operating rate was 81.73%, down 3.2 percentage points from the end of last month. The operating rate of natural gas - based urea continued to decline, reaching 71.8% at the end of the month, down 6.82 percentage points from the end of last month [9]. - In August, three new production capacities were put into operation, with a total of 200,000 tons from Shandong Jinkong Riyue New Materials Co., Ltd., 1 million tons from Xinjiang Xinji Energy Chemical Co., Ltd., and 800,000 tons from Anhui Jinmei Zhongneng Chemical Co., Ltd. From January to August 2025, the total new urea production capacity put into operation was about 4.4 million tons [9]. - In August, the daily average urea output was still higher than the historical value, ranging from a minimum of 189,800 tons to a maximum of 194,400 tons, and currently maintaining at the level of 190,000 - 200,000 tons. The estimated urea output in August was 6.0605 million tons, a decrease of 27,500 tons month - on - month and an increase of 829,500 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the estimated urea output was 48.154 million tons, an increase of nearly 5.68 million tons year - on - year, with a supply growth rate of 13.37% [12]. 3.3 Urea Cost and Profit Analysis - In August, the market price of anthracite first rose and then stabilized. The average monthly gross profit margin of coal - based urea was estimated to be 2.58%, a decrease of 5.68 percentage points month - on - month and 3.66 percentage points year - on - year. The estimated average monthly gross profit margin of gas - based urea in July was - 10.03%, a decrease of 1.97 percentage points month - on - month and 14.05 percentage points year - on - year [16]. 3.4 Urea Demand Analysis - From January to July 2025, the apparent consumption of urea was 41.455 million tons, an increase of about 4.428 million tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 11.96%. In August 2025, the urea production - sales ratio was maintained at 95.4% - 96.6%, at a relatively high level [19]. 3.5 Urea Agricultural Demand Analysis - In 2024, the national grain sown area was 1.79 billion mu, an increase of 5.258 million mu from the previous year, a growth of 0.3%, and it has been increasing for five consecutive years. With the construction of high - standard farmland, the single - yield level of grain is expected to be effectively improved. The demand for summer fertilizers such as rice and corn is being released [21]. 3.6 Urea Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - In August, the operating rate of compound fertilizers first rose and then fell. The estimated output of compound fertilizers in August was 4.76 million tons, an increase of 1.48 million tons month - on - month and a decrease of 770,000 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the estimated output of compound fertilizers was 33.62 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.54%. In September, it is expected to gradually enter the peak sales season, and the probability of dealers' centralized pick - up will increase [27]. - In August, the average operating rate of melamine enterprises in China was 54.36%, a decrease of 7.06 percentage points from the previous month. The monthly output was 115,200 tons, a decrease of 18,800 tons from the previous month [30]. 3.7 Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to July 2025, the total fertilizer exports in China were 22.83 million tons, an increase of 7.156 million tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 45.65%. The export volume of mineral nitrogen fertilizers and chemical nitrogen fertilizers was 12.33 million tons, an increase of 3.767 million tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 43.99%. The urea export volume was 644,000 tons, an increase of 426,700 tons year - on - year [33]. 3.8 Urea Inventory Level Analysis - At the end of August, the urea enterprise inventory was 1.003 million tons, an increase of 246,000 tons from the beginning of the month, changing from destocking to inventory accumulation. At the end of August, the urea port inventory was 790,000 tons, an increase of 270,000 tons from the end of last month. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 6,473, equivalent to 129,460 tons of urea, an increase of 64,800 tons from the end of last month [35][38]. 3.9 Urea Market Outlook - Supply: There is still an expectation of continuous urea capacity release. The concentrated overhaul period of coal - based urea devices has passed. Although the overall operating rate of gas - based devices is lower than in previous years, the overall urea supply may maintain a year - on - year growth rate of 8 - 12%, and the daily average urea output will maintain at the level of 190,000 - 200,000 tons. - Demand: (1) Agricultural demand: The concentrated fertilization period for summer harvest and sowing is over, and other agricultural fertilization is sporadic. (2) Industrial demand: Compound fertilizers are in the pre - sale stage of autumn fertilizers. As the pre - sale progresses, the operating rate of fertilizer enterprises will gradually increase in the second half of the month, and the production of autumn fertilizers will start. In September, it is the traditional sales stage of compound fertilizers. In the middle and late ten days, the pick - up volume of dealers will increase, and the production of fertilizer enterprises will also increase simultaneously. The industrial demand for melamine, urea - formaldehyde resin, desulfurization and denitrification will fluctuate slightly. (3) Export demand: The urea export volume in July was lower than expected, while the urea port inventory exceeded the previous export peak level. It is expected that the export volume will be concentrated in August - September. - Market outlook: Recently, the number of urea device overhauls has decreased, and the supply has recovered month - on - month, with the daily output running at 190,000 - 200,000 tons. The agricultural fertilization demand is sporadic. After the continuous increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, it began to decline. The peak operating rate of compound fertilizers is lower than in previous years. It is expected that the progress of compound fertilizers this year will be delayed, and other industrial demand will remain stable. The downstream of urea continues to hold a wait - and - see attitude, and the limited actual transactions have led to continuous inventory accumulation of enterprises. In September, with capacity release and expected increase in daily output, the demand will also gradually show an increasing trend. Both supply and demand are changing, and attention should be paid to the rhythm changes. It is expected that the price fluctuation range may expand. Key points to focus on include urea capacity release, urea device production cuts and overhauls, compound fertilizer operating rate, export policies, coal prices, and the macro - environment [41].

2025年上半年尿素价格先震荡上涨，后震荡下跌，呈宽幅震荡走势。展望下半年尿素价格走势，预计7 月农业需求淡季引发尿素价格阶段性下跌；8—9月秋季备肥及出口集中装船等需求边际改善可能引发价 格反弹，但幅度受限于供应压力；若10月出口窗口关闭，需求淡季叠加高库存，价格或再次下探。 新增投产压力较大生产利润继续下降 2025年上半年，尿素行业产能投放309万吨，技改产能40万吨，产能增量为269万吨，上半年产能增速为 3.51%。理论产能从7670 万吨增长至7939万吨。 陕西陕化、甘肃靖远刘化（一期）、甘肃金昌能源、江苏晋煤恒盛化工、新疆新冀能源5套装置在2025 年上半年顺利投产。2025年下半年，尿素行业预计产能投放292万吨，暂无技改产能，产能增量为292 万吨，下半年产能增速（相较于2025 年上半年）为3.68%，理论产能从7939万吨增长至8231万吨。2025 年尿素产能增速预计为7.31%，下半年新疆奥福（库车沐阳）、九江心连心、安徽晋煤中能、甘肃靖远 刘化（二期）、山东晋控日月新材料、河北正元氢能科技 6 套装置投产，投产压力仍较大，尿素市场供 应宽松局面延续。 2025年上半年，新增产能较 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral, with an expected range - bound oscillation in the urea futures price in the second half of the year [2][10] 2. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - **Cost**: In the first half of the year, coal prices continued a weak trend, and natural gas prices remained stable. Urea upstream enterprises had decent profits, and factory operating rates were high under the support of policies. In the second half, coal prices may remain weak but with limited downside. Urea production profits will decline due to new capacity [7] - **Supply**: In the first half, urea capacity increased by 1.95 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 2.6%. More new devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter of the second half. The annual output in 2025 is expected to exceed 72 million tons [7] - **Import and Export**: In the first half, the total volume of urea import and export remained low. Export policies have been relaxed since the second quarter, with a set export volume of about 2 million tons. Exports are expected to improve in the second half, but enterprises need to ensure domestic supply first [7] - **Demand**: In the first half, the total urea demand increased but at a slower pace, falling short of expectations. Industrial demand declined, and downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In the third quarter, agricultural demand will enter the peak season [8] - **Inventory**: As of the end of June, urea enterprise inventories, port inventories, and South China social inventories were all higher than the same period in previous years. It is expected to enter a destocking cycle in the third quarter, but the inventory level will remain high [9][82] Strategy - The strategy is neutral, with an expected range - bound oscillation [10] 3. Summary by Directory Urea Market Review - In early 2025, the urea price rose slightly due to agricultural fertilizer - preparation demand. In March, the market was stable as reserve supplies were released. In the second quarter, the market was affected by US tariff policies, Middle - East geopolitical situations, and export policies. The price oscillated between 1,600 yuan/ton and 2,000 yuan/ton [17] Urea Capacity Release - **Urea Production**: In the first half of 2025, urea production was about 35.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. The annual output in 2025 is expected to exceed 72 million tons. The new capacity in the first half was 1.95 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 2.6%. The full - year capacity growth rate is expected to be 6.6%, reaching 80.43 million tons/year [25] - **2025 China Urea Production Plan**: The total new capacity in 2025 is expected to be 5.03 million tons/year, with some already put into operation and others planned for the second half, mainly in the fourth quarter [33] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - **Urea Production Profit**: In the first half of 2025, coal prices were weak, and natural gas prices were stable. Enterprises had good profits, and the operating rate was high. In the second half, coal prices may remain weak, and production profits will decline. Pay attention to the impact of coal price rebounds on costs and the change in upstream device loads caused by profit compression [34] - **Urea Actual Operating Rate and Forecast**: In the first half of 2025, the national average operating rate was 86.2%, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. The coal - based urea operating rate increased significantly. In the second half, the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain high, but the operating rate may decline slightly due to new capacity [47] Urea Import and Export - **Total Urea Import and Export Volume**: In the first half of 2025, the total import and export volume was low. From January to May, the import volume was 1,262.5 tons, and the export volume was 11,000 tons. Export policies have been relaxed since the second quarter, and exports are expected to improve in the second half, but enterprises need to ensure domestic supply first [52] - **Urea Export Profit**: In the first half of 2025, international urea prices were higher than domestic ones, but exports were restricted by policies. Since June, due to the intensification of the Middle - East conflict, international prices have risen significantly, and export profits have increased. It is expected that the export volume will increase in the third quarter [57] Urea Consumption and Inventory - **Urea Downstream Consumption**: In the first half of 2025, the total urea demand increased but at a slower pace, falling short of expectations. In the third quarter, agricultural demand will enter the peak season. The compound fertilizer operating rate was 41.6% in the first half, and it is expected to recover. The melamine operating rate was 63.6% in the first half, and industrial demand is not expected to improve significantly in the second half [66] - **Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: As of the end of June, enterprise inventories, port inventories, and South China social inventories were all higher than the same period in previous years. It is expected to enter a destocking cycle in the third quarter, but the inventory level will remain high [82]