Core Viewpoint - The current market for live pigs is characterized by an oversupply situation, with prices near the cost of self-breeding and raising, leading to a support for prices due to retail reluctance to sell at low prices and demand from the upcoming holidays [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - In September, supply has concentrated, leading to significant pressure from oversupply, while demand has shown limited recovery, causing a continuous decline in pig prices [3]. - As of September 16, the average price for live pigs was 12.96 yuan/kg, down 0.35 yuan/kg from the previous week, indicating a weak price trend due to increased supply and insufficient demand [4][12]. - The average price for piglets was 25.11 yuan/kg, down 1.81 yuan/kg from the previous week, reflecting a pessimistic outlook from the breeding sector regarding future prices [4][12]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of breeding sows remains high, with a stable inventory of 40.42 million sows as of July 2025, indicating that production capacity is still above normal levels [11]. - As of August 2025, the inventory of breeding sows in large-scale farms was 5.0565 million, showing a slight decrease of 0.83% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 1.86% [12]. - The operating rate of key slaughter enterprises was 31.89% as of September 16, showing a slight recovery, but the overall demand remains weak, particularly with the overlapping of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [22]. Group 3: Price and Profitability Analysis - The prices of feed ingredients have continued to decline slightly, with corn averaging 2365.29 yuan/ton and soybean meal at 3067.14 yuan/ton as of September 16 [24]. - The profitability for self-breeding and raising has dropped to 21.12 yuan per head, while losses for externally purchased piglets have increased to 194.81 yuan per head, indicating a challenging environment for pig farming [25].