8月26日，受近期中央启动猪肉收储利好刺激，A股猪肉板块强势上扬。 截至收盘，傲农生物强势涨停。该公司昨晚公布的半年报显示，其上半年归母净利润达3.61亿元，成功 摆脱亏损阴霾，实现业绩反转。 | 代码 名称 | 现价 | 张跌 | 涨幅� | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603363 傲农生物 | 4.15 | +0.38 | +10.08% | | 002714 牧原股份 | 55.06 | +3.68 | +7.16% | | 000048 京基智农 | 17.05 | +0.99 | +6.16% | | 603151 邦基科技 | 27.04 | +1.39 | +5.42% | | 002100 天康生物 | 6.97 | +0.35 | +5.29% | | 002840 华统股份 | 11.31 | +0.40 | +3.67% | | 605296 神农集团 | 34.38 | +1.11 | +3.34% | | 300761 立华股份 | 20.50 | +0.64 | +3.22% | | 300498 温氏股份 | 18.48 | +0.55 | +3.0 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 08 月 24 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 (8621)23297818× zhujy@swsresearch.com 猪肉收储再启，关注龙头猪企业绩兑现 看好 ——农林牧渔周观点（2025.8.18-2025.8.24） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 3.7%，沪深 300 上涨 4.2%。个股涨幅前五名：申联生物（19.2%）、国投中鲁（18.0%）、 ST 景谷（16.9%）、宏辉果蔬（16.0%）、中基健康（14.9%），跌幅前五名：ST 天山（-19.3%）、晓鸣股份（-5.3%）、华 英农业（-3.3%）、万辰集团（-3.0%） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is transitioning from rapid growth to a stable phase, with medium to long-term capacity regulation expected to become the new norm in the pig farming sector, which may positively impact the industry. The company is entering a new stage of development [2]. - Future capital expenditures are expected to gradually decrease, with a significant slowdown in new domestic capacity. The focus will shift towards enhancing efficiency, deepening cost reductions, lowering debt, and improving free cash flow, leading to a healthier high-quality development phase for the company's domestic business. The overseas market presents new growth opportunities [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 76.46 billion yuan (YoY +34%), net profit of 10.79 billion yuan (YoY +953%), and attributable net profit of 10.53 billion yuan (YoY +1170%). In Q2 alone, revenue was 40.40 billion yuan (YoY +32%), with net profit of 6.17 billion yuan (YoY +77%) and attributable net profit of 6.04 billion yuan (YoY +88%) [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In July 2025, the company's total cost dropped to 11.8 yuan/kg, with an average complete cost of approximately 12.2 yuan/kg in Q2. The company marketed 46.91 million pigs in the first half of 2025 (YoY +45%), including 38.39 million market pigs (YoY +32%) and 8.29 million piglets (YoY +168%). The average profit per market pig was about 254 yuan per head in the first half, increasing to approximately 283 yuan per head in Q2 [11]. - Cash flow and debt levels have significantly improved, with a 12% year-on-year increase in net cash flow from operating activities in H1 2025. Capital expenditures decreased from 6 billion yuan in H1 2024 to 5.2 billion yuan in H1 2025. The debt-to-asset ratio fell from 59% in Q1 2025 to 56% in Q2 2025, with total liabilities decreasing by 12.8 billion yuan compared to Q1 2025 [11]. Cost Management and Shareholder Returns - The company aims for an average annual complete cost of 12 yuan/kg, with expectations to reduce it to 11 yuan/kg by year-end, primarily through improved production performance and reduced operating expenses. Future cost-cutting measures include breeding optimization, health management, and employee training [11]. - In H1 2025, the company distributed 5 billion yuan in dividends, with a payout ratio of 47.5%, exceeding the 40% target set for 2024. Including share buybacks, total shareholder returns reached 6.11 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 58% of the attributable net profit for H1 2025 [11].

牧原股份 20250821 摘要 牧原股份 2024 年自由现金流转正至约 180 亿元，得益于成本控制和资 本开支下降，2025 年上半年净利润已达 105.3 亿元，全年有望超过去 年，股东回报力度超预期，分红比例达 47.5%。 牧原股份成本控制显著，2025 年 7 月成本降至 11.8 元/公斤，为上市 企业最低，主要通过提升内部效率实现，战略重心已从扩张转向内部优 化和股东回报。 生猪养殖行业进入产能调控阶段，政策趋严限制产能，行业呈现产能波 动减弱、价格波动收窄、价格中枢提升的新特征，利好牧原股份依靠成 本优势获取现金流。 中国生猪养殖行业规模主体占比提升至 70%，散户降至 30%，规模化 养殖企业主导地位增强，有助于稳定市场供应和价格，但需警惕规模化 主体过度扩张导致利润下降。 产业政策从鼓励扩张转向"产能调控"，旨在稳定行业利润，能繁母猪 存栏量呈现下台阶和波动幅度收窄的趋势，2025 年生猪价格超预期， 显示政策有效性。 Q&A 牧原股份在 2025 年上半年取得了哪些超预期的成果？ 牧原股份在 2025 年上半年取得了显著的超预期成果，主要体现在股东回报和 财务状况的改善。首先，公司在 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Reported company: Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. - Industry: Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, Feed, and Fishery - Research date: August 20, 2025 [1] Group 2: Research Participants - Participating institutions: E Fund Management Co., Ltd., Taikang Asset Management Co., Ltd., Manulife Fund Management Co., Ltd., ICBC - AXA Life Insurance Co., Ltd., China Construction Bank Fund Management Co., Ltd., etc. [2] Group 3: Company Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 76.463 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 34.46%; a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.530 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1,169.77%; and a net cash flow from operating activities of 17.351 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.13%. As of the end of Q2 2025, the asset - liability ratio was 56.06%, a decrease of 3.14 percentage points from the end of Q1 [23]. - The company aims to reduce the overall debt scale by 10 billion yuan this year. As of the end of Q2, the total debt decreased by 5.6 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, and more than half of the debt reduction target has been completed [23]. - In the pig farming business in H1 2025, the company sold 46.91 million pigs, including 38.394 million commercial pigs, 8.291 million piglets, and 0.225 million breeding pigs. As of the end of June 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 3.431 million [23]. - Thanks to technological innovation and management optimization, the company's full - cost of pig farming decreased monthly, reaching about 11.8 yuan/kg in July. The company aims for an average annual cost of 12 yuan/kg this year [23]. - In the slaughter and meat business in H1 2025, the company slaughtered 11.4148 million pigs, a year - on - year increase of 110.87%, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 78.72%. The loss was about 100 million yuan, a significant year - on - year reduction [24]. - The company announced a semi - annual profit distribution plan in 2025, planning to distribute a cash dividend of 9.32 yuan per 10 shares (tax - included), with a total dividend of 5.002 billion yuan (tax - included), accounting for 47.50% of the semi - annual net profit attributable to shareholders [24]. Group 4: Company Strategies and Plans Response to industry capacity control measures - Reduce the inventory of breeding sows, aiming to reduce it to 3.3 million by the end of the year. Do not consider adding new sows in the short term next year [25]. - Reduce the average weight of pigs for sale, expecting it to drop to 120 kg by the end of this month [25]. - Stop selling fattening pigs to secondary fattening customers and cooperate with relevant departments to build a control system [25]. Use of funds from Hong Kong listing - The funds raised from the Hong Kong listing will be used for expanding the global business and R & D, not for new domestic capacity construction [25]. Dividend plan - In 2024 - 2026, the company plans to distribute cash dividends of no less than 40% of the available distributable profit each year. In H1 2025, the planned cash dividend is 5.002 billion yuan (tax - included), accounting for 47.50% of the semi - annual net profit attributable to shareholders. The dividend ratio will be adjusted dynamically in the future [25][26]. Overseas business - The company has established an overseas business team, is exploring overseas markets, and will use various models such as light - asset, new capacity building, and M & A in the future [26]. Cost reduction path - Focus on pig breeding, health management, and employee training to achieve the cost reduction target of an average of 12 yuan/kg this year and 11 yuan/kg by the end of the year [27][28]. Support for farmers - Increase the scale of piglet sales, provide customized pig - farming solutions, and build an industrial interconnection platform to share development dividends with farmers [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant financial performance of Muyuan Foods, a leading pig farming company in China, showcasing a remarkable recovery in profits and a strategic focus on cost reduction and production capacity management [3][4][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Muyuan Foods reported a 34% increase in revenue, with net profit exceeding 10 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of over 1100% compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The company's net profit reached 10.53 billion yuan, with a profit margin increase of 10.59 percentage points, bringing the gross margin to 18.72% [6][7]. - The significant profit growth is attributed to a low profit base from the previous year and a notable decrease in production costs, which fell from 14 yuan/kg to 11.8 yuan/kg [6][7]. Sales and Production - Muyuan Foods sold 38.39 million pigs in the first half of the year, generating sales revenue of 70.87 billion yuan, with a notable increase in the sale of piglets, which rose by 168% [7]. - The company aims to reduce average production costs to 12 yuan/kg for the year, with a target of 11 yuan/kg by year-end, indicating potential for further profit growth [7][8]. Industry Trends - The chairman of Muyuan Foods stated that the pig farming industry in China is transitioning towards quality improvement, moving from quantity to quality [8][9]. - The company is actively managing production capacity, planning to reduce the number of breeding sows to 3.3 million by the end of the year, which is a more significant reduction than the national target [11][12]. Capacity Management - Muyuan Foods has implemented measures to control production capacity, including reducing the weight of pigs at slaughter to alleviate supply pressure [12][13]. - The company has ceased selling pigs for secondary fattening, ensuring that all pigs are directed to slaughterhouses, which is expected to stabilize market prices [12][13].

新京报贝壳财经讯（记者阎侠）8月21日，牧原股份的股价开盘即上涨，盘中涨幅一度超过8%。消息面 上，公司半年报于8月20日晚间发布。 2025年上半年，牧原股份共销售生猪4691万头，其中商品猪3839.4万头（包括向屠宰肉食类子公司合计 销售1138.8万头），仔猪829.1万头，种猪22.5万头。公司共计屠宰生猪1141.48万头，销售鲜、冻品等猪 肉产品127.36万吨。 2025年上半年，牧原股份实现营业收入约764.63亿元，同比增长34.46%，其中，屠宰、肉食业务实现营 业收入约193.45亿元，同比增长93.83%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润约105.3亿元，同比增长 1169.77%；归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润约106.77亿元，同比增长1115.32%。截至 2025年6月底，公司资产负债率为56.06%，较年初下降2.62个百分点。 8月21日，牧原股份发布投资者关系活动记录表。牧原股份表示："今年以来，得益于技术创新和管理优 化方面的协同发力，公司实现了关键生产指标的稳步提升及内部成本方差的持续缩小，生猪养殖完全成 本逐月下降，7月已降至约11.8元/kg。" 有投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively pursuing international expansion and cost reduction strategies, with significant growth in revenue and profit reported for the first half of 2025, while also responding to domestic production capacity adjustments in the pig farming industry [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 76.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46% - Net profit reached 10.79 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 952.92% - The net cash flow from operating activities was 17.351 billion yuan, up 12.13% compared to the same period last year [1]. International Expansion - The company has established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, as part of its internationalization strategy - The company submitted an application for H-share issuance on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in May 2025, marking a significant step in its global strategy - The funds raised will primarily be used for global expansion and research and development, rather than for increasing domestic production capacity [1][2]. Overseas Market Strategy - The company is leveraging its successful domestic breeding techniques to enhance biosecurity and disease prevention in overseas markets, particularly in Vietnam - An overseas business team has been formed to explore various international business models, including light-asset approaches and potential acquisitions [2]. Domestic Market Adjustments - The company is actively reducing its breeding sow inventory in response to national production capacity regulations, with plans to decrease from 3.621 million to 3.3 million by the end of 2025 - This reduction aligns with national goals to stabilize the total breeding sow population at around 39.5 million [3][4]. Cost Management - The company's breeding costs have decreased from 13.1 yuan/kg to 11.8 yuan/kg from January to July 2025, with some facilities achieving costs below 11 yuan/kg - The target for average breeding costs for the year is set at 12 yuan/kg, with a goal to reduce it to 11 yuan/kg by year-end [5].

Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, and a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 1169.77% [1][2] - The increase in revenue is attributed to a rise in the number of pigs sold and a decrease in breeding costs, with a notable increase in the sales volume of pigs from 32.388 million to 46.91 million [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue for the breeding business reached 75.446 billion yuan, with 46.91 million pigs sold, including 38.394 million market pigs, 8.291 million piglets, and 225,000 breeding pigs [1] - The slaughtering and meat business generated revenue of 19.345 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.83%, with 11.4148 million pigs slaughtered, marking a growth of 110.87% [1] - The company's cash flow from operating activities was 17.35 billion yuan, up 12.13% year-on-year [1] Cost Management - The breeding cost of pigs decreased from 13.1 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to below 12.1 yuan/kg by June, with a target to further reduce it to 11 yuan/kg by the end of the year [2] - The company is actively reducing its breeding capacity, with the number of breeding sows decreasing by 54,000 to 3.43 million as of June 2025, and an expected reduction to 3.3 million by year-end [2] Shareholder Returns - The company has initiated substantial dividend distributions, proposing a cash dividend of 9.32 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 5 billion yuan for the first half of the year [2] - The total cash dividends and share buybacks for the first half of the year exceeded 7 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 67.71% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2]

农业50ETF跟踪中证农业指数，前十大权重股分别为牧原股份、温氏股份、海大集团、藏格矿业、盐湖股份、新 希 望、梅花生物、亚钾国际、扬农化工、 大北农。 今日A股早盘震荡分化，创业板指探底回升，沪指小幅上涨，再创年内新高。沪深两市半日成交额1.57万亿，较上个交易日放量591亿。 牧原股份股价涨超5%，带动农业ETF、农业50ETF、农业ETF易方达、畜牧ETF、养殖ETF、畜牧养殖ETF上涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 跟踪指数名称 | 当天涨跌幅 | 本月涨跌幅 | 管理公司 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159825.SZ | 农业ETF | 中证农业 | 1.82% | 17.72% | 营国度: | | 159827.SZ | 农业50ETF | 中证农业 | 1.81% | 18.71% | 银花直: | | 516810.SH | 农业50ETF | 中证农业 | 1.66% | 18.40% | 华夏其 | | 562900.SH | 农业ETF易方达 | CS现代农 | 1.38% | 11.94% | 易方达基 | | 159867.SZ ...