近日，新希望于投资者关系平台就近期舆论所关注的焦点问题进行了集中回应。 从上海绿捷食品安全事件，到河北千喜鹤涉嫌串通投标事宜，再到养猪成本承压以及社会责任履行情况，投资者的密集提问，充分反映出公众对于农业龙 头企业在产业链关联、食品安全管控以及周期应对能力等方面的高度关注。 新希望：上市公司与绿捷无股权管理业务联系 （一）高频提问背后的信任危机 投资者针对新希望与上海绿捷的关联关系进行了多次追问，其中核心矛盾在于：绿捷作为上海500余所学校的供餐单位，因"发臭虾仁炒蛋"事件被立案调 查。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 （来源：博亚和讯） 企查查数据显示，在河北千喜鹤饮食的股权结构中，国坤世纪持股78.1%，李国库为法定代表人，与新希望公开披露的子公司体系的确不存在直接关联。 经股权穿透显示，新希望创始人家族通过KGF间接控制绿捷，且前新希望高管陶煦曾担任绿捷董事长。对此，新希望董秘反复强调"上市公司与绿捷不存 在股权、管理及业务联系"，然而投资者对"关联关系是否通过家族信托或非公开渠道存在"表示质疑。 （二）社会责任与品牌反噬风险 上海绿捷食品安全舆论持续发酵，其已对新希望品牌造成了连带负 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global panel market experienced a price stabilization in Q3 2025, with TV panel prices halting their decline, while monitor and laptop panel prices remained stable. This stability was influenced by manufacturers' capacity control strategies and brand preparations for the year-end sales season, although uncertainties remain for Q4 due to ongoing supply-demand dynamics [2][18]. TV Panels - The TV panel market reversed its previous downward trend in Q3, driven by seasonal stocking demands from brands for the year-end promotional season [3][14]. - In July, demand was weak, leading to price declines for various sizes of TV panels, with 32-inch and 43-inch panels dropping by $1, 50-inch and 55-inch by $2, and 65-inch and 75-inch by $3 [5][6]. - By August, demand increased as brands began stocking for promotions, resulting in stable prices across all sizes of TV panels [6][8]. - September saw continued price stability, supported by brand stocking activities and manufacturers planning production cuts for October to address potential demand slowdowns [8][14]. Monitor Panels - Unlike TV panels, monitor panel prices remained stable throughout Q3, despite a slight 4.7% decrease in demand [8][9]. - The lack of price decline was attributed to manufacturers' reluctance to lower prices due to existing losses on mainstream monitor panel sizes, leading to reduced supply to support price stability [9][14]. - Both brands and manufacturers reached a consensus to maintain price stability, avoiding strong demands for price reductions [9][14]. Laptop Panels - The laptop panel market showed strong demand in Q3, with a 5.1% increase in demand compared to the previous quarter, but prices remained stable [10][12]. - The stability in prices was primarily due to competition among manufacturers, who avoided price increases to maintain customer relationships and market share [12][13]. - Manufacturers anticipated a potential demand decline in Q4, leading them to prefer price stability to solidify customer relations [13][14]. Key Factors Influencing Price Trends - The primary demand driver in Q3 was the seasonal stocking by brands for year-end promotions, which helped stabilize TV panel prices [14][15]. - Manufacturers' capacity control strategies, including production adjustments and planned reductions, played a crucial role in preventing further price declines [14][15]. - Competitive dynamics in the laptop panel market limited price increases despite strong demand, as manufacturers focused on maintaining long-term customer relationships [15][18]. Outlook for Q4 - The price stability achieved in Q3 is expected to face challenges in Q4, with anticipated declines in procurement momentum for TV panels as brands complete their stocking [16][18]. - Manufacturers plan to reduce production rates in October, which may impact price stability for TV panels [16][18]. - The monitor panel market may see continued price stability for mainstream sizes, but higher-end models could face downward price pressure [16][18]. - There is a high risk of price declines for laptop panels in Q4, as demand is expected to weaken, shifting bargaining power towards brand customers [17][18].

综合来看，当前纯碱市场高供应格局并未改变，纯碱产量、库存仍处于高位，后续天然碱项目投产将进 一步加剧供应压力。与此同时，原材料价格季节性承压，或难以对纯碱提供上行驱动。虽然企业库存持 续去化，但阶段性实际需求增量较为有限，且终端需求仍处于调整中，产业基本面延续宽松格局，纯碱 价格大概率承压整理。不过，四季度宏观预期向好，需警惕市场情绪与产业基本面背离下的价格波动风 险。 随着"金九银十"建材需求传统旺季到来，市场悲观预期略有好转，结合国庆、中秋双节前中下游企业备 货增加，9月碱厂库存持续去化。截至9月25日，国内碱厂库存165.15万吨，环比下降21.6万吨或 11.56%，其中重碱去库更为明显。不过，不管是重碱还是轻碱，库存均处于近年同期高位，还需要关 注需求改善的持续性。 需求方面来看，重碱下游需求主要集中在玻璃上。此前光伏组件"抢出口"提振对原材料的采购，光伏玻 璃生产扭亏为盈，生产积极性改善支撑重碱需求小幅回升。但9月以来，光伏玻璃日熔量增幅放缓且仍 处低位，叠加下游组件企业采购积极性降温，对重碱需求有所松动。 近期浮法玻璃企业报价上调，工艺利润稳定，日熔量环比略有增加，不过下游深加工产品订单天数增幅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, the fundamentals are not optimistic. Supply pressure and high inventory are the key factors suppressing prices, and there are no signs of a turnaround in the short term. The trading strategy is to short on rallies unilaterally and consider rolling to sell out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [3][67]. - For glass, the fundamentals are neutral. Policy and news have a significant impact on the FG2601 contract. The glass futures price in the fourth quarter may show a volatile trend, with the price center likely to be higher in the first half and lower in the second half. The trading strategy is to focus on band trading and consider selling deep out - of - the - money call options [4][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review Soda Ash - In Q1 2025, the soda ash price fluctuated, with a decline in the second half of December due to factory maintenance and a rebound later as enterprises resumed production. In February, the price first dropped and then rebounded. In March, the price fell despite improved fundamentals [6]. - In Q2 2025, the soda ash price showed a smooth downward trend due to increased supply and slower demand growth [7]. - In Q3 2025, the price first rose and then fell. In July, the price increased with the rise of coking coal futures. In August, supply reached a historical high and demand was weak, leading to a price drop. In September, the price fluctuated, and it was relatively firm before the National Day due to downstream restocking [7]. Glass - In Q1 2025, the glass futures price trended downward. In January, the futures were weak but the spot price rebounded. In February, the price continued to decline due to high inventory and slow recovery of processing enterprises. In March, the price first dropped to a low and then rebounded, but it couldn't be sustained [8][10]. - In Q2 2025, the glass futures price showed a smooth downward trend due to poor macro - environment and low real - estate demand. In June, the price rebounded due to the rise of coal prices [10]. - In Q3 2025, the price first rose under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy and then fell back. In September, the price rebounded with the arrival of the consumption peak season [10]. 3.2 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis Price and Spread - In Q3 2025, the spot price of soda ash in various regions first rose and then fell, and the futures price also showed a similar trend. The spot price decline was greater than that of the futures, and the basis decreased by 150 yuan/ton compared to the end of June [13]. Profit, Production, and Capacity Utilization - By September 25, 2025, the ammonia - soda production profit was - 37.2 yuan/ton, and the combined - soda production profit was - 77.5 yuan/ton, both showing a decline compared to the end of June. However, the capacity utilization rate remained high, above 80% in Q3 and above 85% in September. The weekly production was mostly above 700,000 tons, and the monthly production in September increased compared to August [17]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.9515 million tons, a decrease of 115,400 tons compared to the end of June. The light - soda inventory was 729,100 tons, a decrease of 76,100 tons, and the heavy - soda inventory was 922,400 tons, a decrease of 39,300 tons. The heavy - soda inventory was digested faster after August due to the rebound of the photovoltaic glass market and the ignition of some float glass production lines [22]. Future Capacity Expansion Plan - In the first half of 2025, new capacities of Lianyungang Alkali Plant and Hubei Shuanghuan were put into production. In the second half, there are still 3.5 million tons of capacity to be put into operation, including the second - phase project of Yuanxing Energy, which was successfully ignited on September 19 and entered the commissioning stage [27]. Downstream Demand - **Float Glass**: In Q3 2025, the spot price of float glass in most regions rose, but it decreased in Guangdong. The futures price also rose and then fell. The production profit of glass enterprises improved. The daily melting volume increased to 160,200 tons, and the enterprise inventory decreased. However, the deep - processing enterprise operating rate declined, and the terminal real - estate demand remained weak [29][32][33]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: In Q3 2025, the photovoltaic glass price rebounded, and the daily melting volume reached 88,800 tons after a rebound. The enterprise inventory days decreased to 14.16 days. The domestic photovoltaic component installation volume and export volume showed different trends. The installation volume declined after May, and the export volume increased in August but is likely to decline after September [48][54]. - **Light - Soda Demand**: The demand for light soda is relatively stable. The PPI of glass products continued to decline, the production of synthetic detergents decreased, and the production of lithium carbonate increased steadily [60]. 3.3 Outlook and Trading Recommendations - For soda ash, the supply surplus problem may worsen in the fourth quarter. The trading strategy is to short on rallies unilaterally and consider rolling to sell out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [67]. - For glass, the daily melting volume may remain stable with possible short - term fluctuations. The trading strategy is to focus on band trading and consider selling deep out - of - the - money call options [68].

反内卷政策或带来双重拐点。正如前文分析，当前各行业反内卷政策的执行核心集中于产能调控与价格 引导，我们认为，反内卷政策或将催生双重拐点。第一，"反内卷"有望推动产能过剩下行拐点出现；第 二，随着产能过剩化解进程加快，PPI也有望迎来上行拐点。不过需要注意的是，"反内卷"过程中可能 出现制造业增长动能阶段性衰减的情况，要同时实现稳增长目标，还需同步配套需求侧政策工具。若能 辅以有效的扩大需求举措，本轮"反内卷"政策的持续落地有望为资本市场带来牛市支撑。 风险因素："反内卷"推进低于预期，地缘政治风险突发，历史规律可能会失效等。 信达证券主要观点如下： 反内卷从政策定调到逐步落地。本轮"反内卷"政策的起点可追溯至2024年7月中共中央政治局会议，该 会议首次明确提出防止"内卷式"恶性竞争；至2024年12月，政策重心从初期的风险预警逐步转向具体整 治行动。进入今年以来，"反内卷"不仅成为多场高层会议的高频议题，相关配套政策也进一步落地至可 执行层面，具体涵盖统一大市场建设、十大行业稳增长方案等举措，政策的逐步细化为后续行业层面的 落地实施奠定了基础。 不同行业反内卷方式或有差异，但始终围绕产能调控和价格引导。不同 ...

继多个行业稳增长方案出台后，石化化工行业纲领文件终于落地。 9月26日，工业和信息化部等7部门联合发布《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025－2026年）》（以下 简称《工作方案》）。《工作方案》提出，2025—2026年，石化化工行业增加值年均增长5%以上。 《工作方案》锚定清晰系列目标：严格控制新增炼油等产能；支持电子化学品、高端聚烯烃等关键产品 攻关；培育新能源、低空经济等新兴领域应用场景；加强精细化工、绿色低碳、人工智能等领域交流合 作。 "严控新增产能投放节奏，是避免行业陷入大幅过剩、产品价格快速恶化的关键。对于已经过剩的行 业，更需通过老旧装置改造、控产能、环保整改等组合措施，优化产品供需格局。"东吴证券研究所能 源化工行业首席分析师陈淑娴对上海证券报记者表示。 严控新增炼油产能 优化高端精细化学品供给 多年来，我国连续位居世界第二石化大国、第一化工大国。当前，石化化工行业仍面临基础有机原料市 场竞争加剧、高端精细化学品供给不足、国内需求增速放缓、外部不确定性增加等挑战，行业转型升级 压力凸显。针对这一供需现状，《工作方案》从"控增量、补短板"两方面提出具体举措。 在产能调控上，文件明确要求严控新 ...

[Table_Title] 反内卷政策或带来双重拐点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 9 月 26 日 证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 [Table_A 解运亮 uthor 宏观首席 ] 分析师 执业编号：S1500521040002 联系电话：010-83326858 邮 箱：xieyunliang@cindasc.com 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱：mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 [➢Table_Summary] 反内卷从政策定调到逐步落地。本轮"反内卷"政策的起点可追溯至 2024 年 7 月中共中央政治局会议，该会议首次明确提出防止"内卷式" 恶性竞争；至 2024 年 12 月，政策重心从初期的风险预警逐步转向具体 整治行动。进入今年以来，"反内卷"不仅成为多场高层会议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing a downturn despite the traditional peak season, with prices dropping and concerns over overcapacity in the industry [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 26, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 12.71 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day, with half of the regions experiencing prices in the "5 yuan pig price zone" [1]. - The average price of pigs in the third week of September was 13.85 yuan/kg, and the average pork price was 24.51 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.8% decrease from the previous week [1]. - The cumulative output of listed pig companies from January to August 2025 reached 126 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 21.12% [6]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The current pig industry is in its sixth cycle, with the internal expansion phase nearing its end, leading to accelerated capacity reduction due to policy and losses [3][12]. - The Ministry of Agriculture plans to reduce the breeding sow stock by approximately 1 million heads to 39.5 million [8]. - By the end of July 2025, the breeding sow stock was at 40.42 million heads, which is 103.6% of the normal holding capacity, indicating a need for capacity regulation [5][9]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Price Trends - Consumer demand is expected to recover during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, potentially stabilizing prices [3]. - The market is witnessing a negative cycle where lower prices lead to panic selling among farmers, further driving prices down [7]. - The industry is shifting towards a more structured approach, with a focus on quality and differentiation rather than merely reducing capacity [12][13]. Group 4: Policy and Strategic Adjustments - The government is actively implementing measures to control pig production, including meetings with major pig companies to discuss production adjustments [8][9]. - Companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods are reducing their breeding sow numbers and controlling the weight of pigs at slaughter [12]. - The industry is expected to evolve into a "30-30-40" structure, with 30% of large enterprises ensuring basic capacity, 30% focusing on niche markets, and 40% being flexible family farms [13].

其中提出，加强重大石化、现代煤化工项目规划布局引导，严控新增炼油产能，合理确定乙烯、对二甲 苯新增产能规模和投放节奏，防范煤制甲醇行业产能过剩风险。石化领域严格执行新建炼油项目产能减 量置换要求，重点支持石化老旧装置改造、新技术产业化示范以及现有炼化企业"减油增化"项目；现代 煤化工领域重点依托煤水资源相对丰富、环境容量较好地区，适度布局煤制油气、煤制化学品项目，开 展煤化工与新能源耦合、先进材料、技术装备、工业操作系统等产业化应用示范，以及二氧化碳捕集、 利用及封存工程示范。加快天然气提氦、海水提钾等项目实施。 (本文来自第一财经) 工信部等七部门近日联合印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》。 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-09-26 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3167 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 3 元/吨（0.094%）。当日注册仓单 271422 吨, 环比增加 7616 吨。主力合约持仓量为 187.0449 万手，环比减少 11775 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3358 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.029%）。 当日注册仓单 29204 吨, 环比减少 5355 吨。主力合约持仓量为 136.9716 万手，环比增加 1955 ...