Core Viewpoint - The current market for live pigs is characterized by an oversupply situation, with prices near the cost of self-breeding and raising, leading to a support for prices due to retail reluctance to sell at low prices and demand from the upcoming holidays [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - In September, supply has concentrated, leading to significant pressure from oversupply, while demand has shown limited recovery, causing a continuous decline in pig prices [3]. - As of September 16, the average price for live pigs was 12.96 yuan/kg, down 0.35 yuan/kg from the previous week, indicating a weak price trend due to increased supply and insufficient demand [4][12]. - The average price for piglets was 25.11 yuan/kg, down 1.81 yuan/kg from the previous week, reflecting a pessimistic outlook from the breeding sector regarding future prices [4][12]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of breeding sows remains high, with a stable inventory of 40.42 million sows as of July 2025, indicating that production capacity is still above normal levels [11]. - As of August 2025, the inventory of breeding sows in large-scale farms was 5.0565 million, showing a slight decrease of 0.83% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 1.86% [12]. - The operating rate of key slaughter enterprises was 31.89% as of September 16, showing a slight recovery, but the overall demand remains weak, particularly with the overlapping of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [22]. Group 3: Price and Profitability Analysis - The prices of feed ingredients have continued to decline slightly, with corn averaging 2365.29 yuan/ton and soybean meal at 3067.14 yuan/ton as of September 16 [24]. - The profitability for self-breeding and raising has dropped to 21.12 yuan per head, while losses for externally purchased piglets have increased to 194.81 yuan per head, indicating a challenging environment for pig farming [25].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in pig sales and optimized production management, leading to cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1][6] - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.717 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [6] - The company has a robust growth outlook, with expected revenues of 7.642 billion yuan in 2025, 9.317 billion yuan in 2026, and 10.224 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 25.7%, 21.9%, and 9.7% respectively [6][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: - 2024: 6,078 million yuan - 2025E: 7,642 million yuan - 2026E: 9,317 million yuan - 2027E: 10,224 million yuan - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: - 2025E: 563 million yuan - 2026E: 853 million yuan - 2027E: 1,146 million yuan - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 1.10 yuan in 2025 to 2.25 yuan in 2027 [2][8] Market Data - As of September 1, 2025, the closing price of the stock was 21.22 yuan, with a market capitalization of 10,824 million yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio projected at 19 for 2025, 13 for 2026, and 9 for 2027 [2][3] Operational Highlights - The company reported a significant increase in pig sales, with 1.9096 million pigs sold in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 74.47% [6] - The cost of raising pigs was reported at 6.16 yuan per jin, attributed to improved genetic management and biosecurity measures [6] - The company aims to enhance production efficiency through a dual approach of technology and management optimization [6]