Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current trading core of the domestic market is policy expectations and external tariff disturbances. The A-share market's sensitivity to tariff policies has weakened, and domestic policies are expected to act according to tariff game progress and economic data. Before a change occurs, the volatile market is likely to continue. With the decline in trading volume today, the market sentiment is cautious, and the market is expected to remain cautious during the three - trading - day week before the holiday, with the stock index maintaining a volatile trend [6] Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance. Except for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, all others closed down. The turnover of the two markets decreased by 572.58 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IH rose with shrinking volume, while other varieties fell with shrinking volume [4] Important Information - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized the central bank's independence from political intervention. The Fed is in a quiet period, and the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for the third time. The IMF lowered the forecast of Asia's GDP growth rate to 3.9% this year and warned of further downward risks [5] - From January to March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 1509.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The National Development and Reform Commission said it has rich policy reserves and will speed up the implementation of measures to stabilize employment and the economy, with most policies to be implemented in the second quarter [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [7] Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change | -0.19% | 0.06% | -0.52% | -0.97% | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 6.872 | 3.6602 | 6.8008 | 18.786 | | Trading volume change | -1.3541 | -0.7492 | -1.2934 | -3.8222 | | Open interest | 244031 | 78966 | 199764 | 315511 | | Open interest change | -1592 | -3111 | -5259 | -7247 | [7][8] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.20 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.62 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.30 | | Turnover of the two markets (billion yuan) | 10563.09 | | Turnover change (billion yuan) | -572.58 | [8]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a stock index daily report dated April 25, 2025, written by Wang Mengying and Liao Chenyue [3] - The market showed a pattern of mixed index performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down and the Shenzhen Component Index up, and increased trading volume [4][9] - The key information includes the release of the 2025 version of the Market Access Negative List and the Politburo meeting on April 25 [5] Group 2: Core View - The Politburo meeting's tone met market expectations but lacked substantial incremental policy stimulus, leading to a weakening of the stock index after the release of the meeting content [6] - The core of the domestic market trading is policy expectations and external tariff disturbances. A-shares are less sensitive to tariff policies, and domestic policies are likely to act according to tariff negotiations and economic data. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [6] Group 3: Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [7] Group 4: Futures Market Observation - The main contracts of IF, IC, and IM rose, while IH fell. IF had reduced trading volume, IH had increased trading volume, and IC and IM also had increased trading volume [4][8] - The trading volume of IF was 82,261 lots, IH was 44,094 lots, IC was 80,942 lots, and IM was 226,082 lots [8] - The positions of IF decreased by 1,275 lots, IH increased by 1,992 lots, IC increased by 1,475 lots, and IM increased by 6,288 lots [8] Group 5: Spot Market Observation - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.39%, and the ratio of rising to falling stocks was 1.20 [9] - The total trading volume of the two markets was 111.3567 billion yuan, with an increase of 454.8 million yuan compared to the previous day [9]