Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polysilicon prices rose notably today due to policy expectations. Consecutive signals from the NDRC and the State Administration for Market Regulation have reinforced policy expectations around curbing excessive competition, supporting the rebound in polysilicon prices [4][5] - In the short term, polysilicon prices are likely to fluctuate around the cost range. In the medium term, attention should focus on policy direction and the progress of supply - side clearing. Over the medium to long term, polysilicon prices are expected to remain in a wide trading range. Downstream players may consider moderate restocking on price dips, while investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [8][10] Summary According to Relevant Contents Event Review - On March 14, the NDRC stated in the 2026 Economic and Social Development Plan draft that it would curb disorderly competition in sectors such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, and promote price stabilization and recovery in products including polysilicon, wafers, and lithium carbonate. On March 30, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on further implementing the Anti - Unfair Competition Law to curb "involution - style" competition in key industries such as photovoltaics [4][5] Market Outlook Supply - Most polysilicon producers remain in a state of production cuts under high inventory pressure. Although some producers show willingness to resume output, overall polysilicon production is expected to stay at a low level in April [7][9] Demand - Affected by weak end - user demand and seasonal softness at the beginning of the year, wafer production and operating rates declined in January - February. In March, wafer output was temporarily supported by a "rush to export" window, but as this window closes, production schedules in April are unlikely to see a meaningful increase. Post - holiday domestic demand recovery remains limited, and downstream demand overall remains subdued [7][9] Inventory - Polysilicon stockpiles are still elevated. While upstream producers have attempted to ease supply pressure through production cuts and controls, inventory accumulation has not yet been effectively digested, and further time is needed for destocking and supply - side clearing [7][9] Price and Strategy - Polysilicon prices have fallen significantly in the earlier stage and are now at a relatively low valuation level. In the short term, prices will fluctuate around the cost range. In the medium term, the supply - demand balance may improve marginally if production cuts continue. Over the medium to long term, prices are expected to remain in a wide trading range. Downstream players may consider moderate restocking on price dips, and investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [8][10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, the polysilicon price rebounded due to repeated policy expectations and low valuations. The price of the main contract rose 3.45% to 8,550 yuan/ton, driven by policy - end guidance. The "anti - involution" policy expectations are still there [2][3]. - In the short term, the polysilicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the cost range under the pattern of repeated policy expectations and weak demand. In the medium term, attention should be paid to policy orientation and the progress of supply going overseas. If production cuts continue, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve marginally. In the long - term, the price of polysilicon will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The price of the main contract of polysilicon rose 3.45% to 8,550 yuan/ton today, mainly driven by policy - end. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation's statements on preventing disorderly and "involution - type" competition in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields formed an echo, promoting the price rebound [3]. Fundamental Situation - Supply side: Under the pressure of high inventory, most silicon - material enterprises are still in a state of production reduction. Although some enterprises have the willingness to resume production, the overall output of polysilicon in April is expected to remain at a low level [4]. - Demand side: Affected by weak terminal demand and the off - season at the beginning of the year, the production and operating rates of silicon wafers declined from January to February. In March, silicon - wafer production was boosted by the "export rush" window, but it is difficult to significantly increase in April. The overall production of battery cells and components is low, and downstream demand is still weak [4]. - Inventory: The inventory pressure of polysilicon is still large. Although the upstream has alleviated the supply through production reduction and control, the inventory accumulated over the years has not been significantly reduced, and it still takes time to consume inventory and ship the supply [4]. Summary and Strategy - Summary: The polysilicon price has fallen significantly in the early stage and is currently in a low - valuation range. In the short term, it will fluctuate within the cost range; in the medium and long - term, it will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [5]. - Strategy: For downstream industrial enterprises, they can make appropriate low - price purchases. For unilateral operations, it is recommended to wait and see for now [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The medium - term view on the government bond futures market is to maintain an overall outlook of fluctuating with a bearish bias due to factors such as the relatively restrained central bank monetary policy, changing inflation expectations, the orientation of medium - and long - term funds entering the market, and the inability to falsify policy expectations [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - This week, the ultra - long end of the government bond futures market has recovered, while the short - and medium - term ends have remained basically unchanged, which is in line with the previous judgment of fluctuations at the ultra - long end and stagnation at the short end. The market characteristics show that short - term stability coexists with long - term fluctuations, reflecting the game between short - term liquidity easing and long - term inflation and economic recovery expectations. The term spread has widened, and the yield curve shows a steepening trend [3][5] 2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - Not elaborated in the provided content 3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type: private funds decreased by 0.42%, foreign capital decreased by 3.15%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 3.4%. In terms of weekly change: private funds decreased by 1.92%, foreign capital decreased by 5.92%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 4.94% [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation between the US and Iran still dominates market trading through changes in long - term expectations. Trump's latest statement triggered TACO trading, driving the overnight US stocks and various risk assets to rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index is gradually entering a high - cost - performance range, and it is necessary to continuously monitor the volume cooperation and closely track the marginal changes of geopolitical events for position management [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Macroeconomic events include President Xi Jinping's inspection in Xiongan New Area and emphasizing its function as the central bearing place for relocating non - capital functions from Beijing. Geopolitically, Trump said the US and Iran had "strong" talks and formed agreement points, with a 5 - day suspension of attacks on Iranian energy facilities, but Iran denied having talks with the US [1] - In the spot market, A - share major indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.63% to 3813.28 points and the ChiNext Index down 3.49%. Only the coal and petroleum and petrochemical industries closed up, while social services, beauty care, and agriculture, forestry, and fishery industries led the decline. The market turnover on that day was 2.4 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices rose across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.38% to 46208.47 points [1] - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures declined, and the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [1] Strategy - The current US - Iran situation affects market trading through long - term expectations. Trump's statement spurred risk - asset rebounds. The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching a high - value range, and attention should be paid to trading volume and geopolitical changes for position management [2] Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts on the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][9][7] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on March 23, 2026, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index all declined, with the CSI 1000 Index having the largest decline of 4.81% [12] - There are also charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all increased on the day. For example, the trading volume of IF contracts increased by 16389 to 156918, and the open interest increased by 15821 to 276923 [16] - There are charts on the open interest, open - interest ratio, and net open interest of foreign investors for each contract, as well as charts and tables on the basis and inter - period spreads of stock index futures [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability and a wait - and - see approach [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, similar to aluminum, a short - term balanced state [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, short - term balanced state [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, short - term balanced state [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, a clearer upward trend and investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, short - term balanced state [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, short - term balanced state [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, short - term balanced state [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, a clearer upward trend and investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The investment opportunities and trends of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as market supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and macro - economic policies. Each metal has its own unique market situation and price movement characteristics [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper's open interest increased and the price dropped to 98,000, with a slight rebound at the end. The market focuses on high global copper inventory and domestic consumption. The current trading sentiment is mainly affected by the war situation. The SMM copper price is 98,990 yuan, with a Shanghai copper discount of 90 yuan and a Guangdong discount narrowing to 5 yuan/ton. Technically, pay attention to the resistance in the dense moving average area. Although the price decline is supported by spot buying interest, the uncertain war situation and high inventory may lead Shanghai copper to seek support at 98,000 or even the weekly line position [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today, with spot discounts in East, Central, and South China expanding. The total social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and bars reached 1.72 million tons, the highest in recent years. Overseas low inventory and production cuts in Qatar and Bahrain intensify supply concerns. Aluminum prices fluctuate sharply at historical highs. Cast aluminum alloy prices follow aluminum prices, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum remains above 1,000 yuan under geopolitical risks. The domestic alumina operating capacity stabilizes around 94 million tons after a decline, and the oversupply situation improves. The short - term market is affected by Guinea's mineral control policy, and the actual impact on mining and exports needs further attention [2] Zinc - The SMM 0 zinc price has a discount of 95 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. After the price breaks through the support, it seeks support at the 23,000 integer level. Domestic zinc ingots need to reduce prices to destock before the price can stabilize. The zinc concentrate inventory of smelters has increased, and the domestic ore TC has rebounded. Due to concerns about the tightening of macro - liquidity, zinc prices are under pressure. The de - stocking rhythm in the peak season needs to be continuously tracked, and the annual oversupply expectation remains unchanged, with a general direction of short - selling on rebounds [3] Aluminum - The LME aluminum inventory is at a high level, and the import window is continuously open, with overseas oversupply pressure being transmitted to the domestic market. Shanghai aluminum rebounds, with the SMM 1 aluminum having a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the near - month contract and a scrap - to - primary aluminum price difference of 25 yuan/ton. The low - cost advantage of primary aluminum still suppresses the price. With recycled aluminum included in delivery, Shanghai aluminum moves towards a dual - pricing system of primary and recycled aluminum, and the price center of the futures contract is under pressure. The market is in a multi - and short - term game, and the price may fluctuate more during the process of finding a new price anchor. Pay attention to the opportunities of the end - of - cycle options [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuates in a narrow range with active trading. The market is worried about the Fed's liquidity control, and the strong US dollar exerts overall pressure on the market. The US dollar is at a one - year high with strong momentum. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel drops, and the price of high - nickel pig iron with a grade of 10 - 12% increases by 3 yuan per point, reaching 1,095 yuan per point. The upstream price rebound drives the mid - stream price up and provides cost support. In the short term, it is mainly driven by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory increases by 3,000 tons to 87,500 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreases by 20,000 tons to 998,000 tons. Pay attention to further changes in Indonesia's policy, and the overall trend is weak and volatile [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuates and closes down. The domestic spot tin price drops to 369,500 yuan, and the spot price has a significant premium over the 2604 contract after the contract month change. The domestic and foreign tin prices are under pressure at the MA60 moving average. The domestic spot is in the direction of export, waiting for the specific import data of tin resources in the previous two months. It is expected that the tin price may continue to oscillate weakly towards 350,000 yuan [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices decline under pressure, and market trading volume decreases. The macro - environment is trading on the decline of interest - rate cut expectations and risk appetite. The downstream production situation is good, and iron - lithium enterprises are still actively producing. The total market inventory decreases by 400 tons to 99,000 tons, and the overall de - stocking speed slows down. The change in inventory structure is notable, with the decline of smelter inventory slowing down and traders' confidence in stockpiling weakening, leading to selling to downstream. In terms of production, the lithium carbonate production in early March has returned to a high level, and the weekly production has reached a new high. The lithium carbonate futures price oscillates, and the fundamentals are stronger than expected. Consider going long on the near - month spread [8] Industrial Silicon - The decline of industrial silicon futures further expands. On the supply side, the weekly supply slightly rebounds. The production in the Southwest region is low, while the restart of leading enterprises in Xinjiang speeds up, and the operation in the Northwest main production area remains stable. On the demand side, the operation rate of silicone slightly rebounds, but downstream procurement is cautious, and price support is weak. The polysilicon market continues to weaken, the operation rate of small and medium - sized manufacturers declines, and the willingness to purchase raw materials is insufficient. The cost advantage caused by the previous geopolitical conflict gradually fades, and the market returns to fundamental - driven. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will maintain a weak and oscillating trend [9] Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon drops significantly, and the market is pessimistic. In March, the resumption of work of some small and medium - sized enterprises is postponed due to the weak market. As the "export rush" window for downstream approaches, the support from battery orders weakens, and the price is under pressure. The silicon wafer segment also weakens. According to SMM data, the inventory of polysilicon enterprises reaches 357,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons, at a stage high. Overall, the previous policy expectations have gradually declined, and the market returns to a weak fundamental pattern. In the short term, polysilicon futures will continue to operate weakly. Continuously track the stocking sentiment in the silicon wafer segment, and pay attention to the support around 40,000 yuan/ton on the futures contract [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market may experience high-level narrow-range shock consolidation in the short term, with limited downward space. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure level [5] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated within the day, closing at 784 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 296,000 lots, the open interest was 468,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.071 billion yuan. The short-term support below is around 770, and the short-term pressure above is around 795. In the near future, it may face pressure near the upper pressure and fall into a certain narrow-range shock consolidation [1] - The mainstream spot varieties at the port, Qingdao Port PB powder, fell 2 to 771, and Super Special powder fell 2 to 656. The main swap was 103.9 (+1.1) US dollars/ton. The swap continued to strengthen, while the spot declined slightly [1] - The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 801.6 yuan/ton, with a basis of 17.6 yuan/ton, and the basis shrank. The spread between iron ore contracts 5 and 9 was 27 yuan, and the spread between contracts 9 and 1 was 18 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly on a month-on-month basis, with declines in both Australia, Brazil, and non-mainstream countries. The arrivals this period increased significantly, as the previous high shipments gradually arrived at the port. On the demand side, there were more blast furnace overhauls, and some areas implemented environmental protection restrictions during the Two Sessions. The pig iron output this period decreased significantly on a month-on-month basis, the steel mill profitability rate declined, and the resumption of pig iron production was postponed. However, it is likely to recover seasonally later. Attention should be paid to the support strength of peak-season demand [2] - In terms of inventory, the iron ore port inventory increased slightly on a month-on-month basis, the berthing inventory increased, and the mill inventory decreased slightly. With the convening of the National Two Sessions, there are still expectations of disturbances in supply and the macro environment. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment [2] - The supply shipments have recovered, but there are still expectations of disturbances. The pressure of high inventory is difficult to relieve in the short term. The convening of the Two Sessions combined with many geopolitical disturbances, and there is still uncertainty in the macro environment. Recently, commodities have shown strong performance. If the macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will still be relatively large [2] Macro Level - Domestically, after the release of the "Report", the current market's policy expectation of the government's active policy efforts in the first half of the year to support the "15th Five-Year Plan" economic opening will gradually converge, and it will gradually shift to the verification stage of real data later [4] - Overseas, for the expectation of the US dollar monetary policy, it is important to determine which stage the current geopolitical conflict is in. This will affect the market's judgment duration of inflation and the economy. The Fed will only react when the long-term inflation expectation changes. The Fed is really considering whether the geopolitical event will evolve from a one-time energy shock to a more persistent inflation increase expectation. It may be too early to talk about the duration of the war at the current time. It is recommended to use the neutral scenario as the benchmark scenario for the construction of the asset allocation portfolio. In the short term, it is recommended to appropriately manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [4] Viewpoint Summary - Overall, in terms of the iron ore fundamentals, there are disturbances in the shipment end, and the pressure of high inventory is difficult to relieve in the short term. On the demand side, the pig iron output has decreased, and the resumption of production has been postponed. Iron ore still shows a positive basis and the BACK structure continues. The short-term downward space is limited for the time being, and it may fall into high-level narrow-range shock consolidation. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure level [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ★☆★ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has improved, and the furnace material prices have shown relatively strong performance. The short - term disk is expected to continue the volatile and upward trend. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Iranian situation and the quality of demand in the peak season [1]. - The iron ore disk is expected to be mainly volatile. Attention should be paid to the policy signals and the overall market sentiment around important meetings [2]. - The coke price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall due to concerns about energy caused by geopolitical conflicts. Attention should be paid to relevant news about geopolitical conflicts [3]. - The coking coal price is also likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall due to energy concerns from geopolitical conflicts. The high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance data suppresses the disk. Attention should be paid to relevant news about geopolitical conflicts [5]. - The silicon manganese price is likely to be mainly in a strong and volatile state. Attention should be paid to relevant news about international conflicts [6]. - The ferrosilicon price is likely to be mainly in a strong and volatile state. Attention should be paid to relevant news about international conflicts [7]. Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel market has rebounded. The apparent demand for thread has continued to recover slowly, production has increased, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both declined, and inventory has continued to accumulate with relatively high pressure. Iron - water production has dropped significantly, and the overall resumption of blast - furnace production is slow. Domestic demand is still weak, while steel exports remain high [1]. Iron Ore - The global shipping volume is at a high level, and domestic port inventory is increasing. Terminal demand has improved after the festival, but the resumption of steel - mill production has been affected, and iron - water production has declined significantly. There is an expectation of marginal improvement in the future. Geopolitical conflicts support costs. The disk is expected to be volatile [2]. Coke - The first round of price cuts has been fully implemented. Coking profits are average, daily production has slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly increased. Traders' purchasing willingness is average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream iron - water is at a low level. The disk is at a premium, and the price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall due to energy concerns [3]. Coking Coal - The price has risen. Geopolitical conflicts have caused concerns about the supply of chemical raw materials. Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level. Coal - mine resumption is good, and production has reached a relatively high level. Spot auction transactions have decreased, and the price has slightly dropped. Terminal inventory has continued to decline. The disk is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall due to energy concerns [5]. Silicon Manganese - The price has shown a strong and volatile trend. International conflicts have a positive impact on the cost of silicon manganese through affecting manganese - ore shipping costs. Manganese - ore inventory at ports is increasing, and production is slowly rising. The price is likely to be mainly in a strong and volatile state [6]. Ferrosilicon - The price has shown a strong and volatile trend. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia has increased, and the price of semi - coke has slightly decreased. The main production areas are still in a loss state. Iron - water production is at a low level, and export demand is above 30,000 tons. Metal - magnesium production has increased. Supply has changed little, and inventory has slightly decreased. The price is likely to be mainly in a strong and volatile state [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to fluctuate and stabilize in the short - term, with attention paid to the support at the MA5 line, due to the fermentation of policy expectations [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term and medium - term trends are both "oscillating", and the intraday trend is "oscillating and slightly strong". The view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the fermentation of policy expectations and the steel price's oscillating stabilization [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of rebar have changed. The production of construction steel mills is weak, the rebar supply has declined to a low level, but the inventory is high. Short - process steel mills are resuming production, so the positive effect is not strong. The rebar demand continues to be weak, with high - frequency demand at a low level in the same period, and there is a time lag in downstream resumption of work. The weak pattern will continue, dragging down the steel price. The relatively positive factors are the enhanced policy expectations during major meetings, strong policy expectations, and cost support. Under the macro - logic, the steel price is expected to fluctuate and stabilize in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steelhome today [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is in a weak supply - demand pattern. Although the terminal consumption of ore is rising and steel mills' restocking after the festival has improved demand, the improvement is limited due to poor profitability of steel mills and accumulating industrial contradictions in the steel market. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals are low but miner shipments are high, and subsequent arrivals are expected to increase. The iron ore fundamentals have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to steel mills' production [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term and medium - term trends are both "oscillating", and the intraday trend is "oscillating weakly". It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved and the upward driving force is not strong [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak. Terminal consumption of ore is rising, and demand has improved due to post - festival restocking by steel mills. However, the improvement is limited because of poor profitability of steel mills and accumulating industrial contradictions in the steel market. Domestic port arrivals are low, but miner shipments remain high, and subsequent arrivals are expected to increase according to shipping schedules. The supply of overseas ore is increasing, and domestic ore production is recovering, so the ore supply is back at a high level. During major conferences, domestic policy expectations have increased, and combined with the improved demand, the ore price has rebounded from a low level. But the improvement in demand is questionable, and the supply is rising again. The iron ore fundamentals have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is necessary to pay attention to steel mills' production [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and the volume and open interest decreased. The steel market is mainly driven by domestic factors. After the Spring Festival, the rebar fundamentals remain weak with continuous inventory accumulation, pressuring steel prices. However, policy expectations are strengthening. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to domestic policies. [5] - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0%, and the volume and open interest decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil has recovered to some extent, but concerns remain. With high inventory and high supply, the fundamentals are weak, and prices continue to be under pressure. Policy expectations are positive. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance. [5] - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.40%, and the volume and open interest decreased. Currently, iron ore demand has improved, but the growth space is limited, while supply remains high, and the ore fundamentals are weak, pressuring ore prices. Policy expectations are strong. It is expected that ore prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill复产. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In February, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Large enterprises' PMI was 51.5%, up 1.2 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises' PMIs were 47.5% and 44.8% respectively, down 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points. All five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI were below the critical point. [7] - According to Mysteel's incomplete statistics, as of March 4, five major construction central enterprises announced their new contract amounts in January 2026, with a total of about 602.9 billion yuan. China State Construction's new contract amount in January was 399.5 billion yuan, with a 1.6% year - on - year increase in construction business. The housing construction business reached 274.3 billion yuan, a 15.9% year - on - year increase, and the real estate business contract sales were 15.7 billion yuan, a 6.9% year - on - year increase. [8] - Brazil's Fomento do Brasil Mineração won a 15 - year lease contract for the North Pier of the Port of Natal. The port is expected to start iron ore export in the second half of 2028. It is strategically located close to Europe and has an area of about 396,000 square meters with multiple berths. [9] 3.2 Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,160 yuan, Tianjin was 3,120 yuan, and the national average was 3,299 yuan, with the national average down 2 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price was 3,220 yuan, Tianjin was 3,140 yuan, and the national average was 3,266 yuan, with the national average down 2 yuan. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,910 yuan, unchanged. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,160 yuan, unchanged. - PB powder: The price in Shandong ports was 747 yuan, down 3 yuan. - Tangshan iron concentrate: The price was 757 yuan, unchanged. - Ocean freight (Australia): 10.95 yuan, up 0.53 yuan; (Brazil) 24.56 yuan, up 0.63 yuan. - SGX swap (current month): 99.62 yuan, down 0.45 yuan. - Iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR): 100.55 yuan, up 0.20 yuan. [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | - | 3,071 | 0.13 | 3,085 | 3,061 | 710,699 | - 77,573 | 1,839,511 | - 42,377 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,212 | 0.00 | 3,229 | 3,207 | 280,903 | - 88,862 | 1,435,635 | - 16,252 | | Iron ore | - | 752.0 | 0.40 | 753.0 | 745.0 | 230,305 | - 9,253 | 525,573 | - 7,288 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly change and total inventory of steel mills + social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change and total inventory of steel mills + social inventory). - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Included charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal inventory), 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory. - **Steel Mill Production**: Included charts of 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 94 - independent electric furnace steel mill operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 94 - independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit situation. [14] 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply and demand have changed. Construction steel mill production weakened, with weekly output down 52,800 tons. Inventory is high, so supply - side benefits are limited. Demand is weak, with weekly apparent demand still at a low level. Policy expectations are strengthening due to upcoming major meetings. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to domestic policies. [38] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern changed little. Plate steel mill production stabilized, with weekly output down 0.20 tons. Inventory is accumulating at a high level, and supply pressure is large. Demand has recovered, but there are concerns. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance. [38] - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand have changed. Steel mill production is stable, and ore terminal consumption is rising. However, the growth space is limited due to accumulated industrial contradictions in the steel market. Supply is increasing as port arrivals are expected to rise. Policy expectations are strong. It is expected that ore prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill复产. [39]