| | | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。 长假期间螺纹表需大幅下滑，同比依然偏弱，产量小幅回落，库存大幅累积。热卷需求同步下滑，产量小 幅回落，库存大幅累积。铁水产量维持高位，下游承接能力不足，随着钢厂利润下滑，产业链负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游 行业看，9月PMI回升至49.8，制造业边际企稳，长假期间地产销售降幅扩大，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位，外围加 征关税带来一定扰动。盘面持续调整后稍有企稳，反弹动能依然不足，短期震荡为主，关注节后需求回暖力度。 【铁矿】 铁矿今日盘面上涨。 供应端，全球发运环比下降，国内到港量反弹，港口库存增加，其中巴西矿增加较为明显，短期市场对于 供应受到扰动的担忧有所增加。需求端，铁水高位存在韧性，钢厂盈利率继续走弱，国庆前后钢厂存在一定补库需求，但随着 钢厂利润的收缩，以及国内需求依然处于相对低位，未来减产的压力逐步增加。国内10月将要召开重要会议，市场仍然存在一 定政策预期，但对外贸易摩擦的不确定性也依然存在。我们预计铁矿短期高位震荡为主。 | MILIA | FREE STATE | beer in the real and AM | | --- | --- | ...

资料来源: Wind,米筐,国泰君安期货研究 基差方向周度预测 本周预测结论 I C IH I M IF 下周预测方向 注: 代表预测基差下周走强 代表预测基差下周走弱。 本周回顾 国庆节前央行三季度例会召开,未给出增量放松措施指引,加力部分在于支持小微企业、稳定外 贸两个新增方向,政策面在稳中有进的基本面之下凸显稳健、审慎。8月规模以上工业企业利润同比 大增20.4%,装备制造业利润拉动作用最强,不同规模企业利润均有改善,私营企业利润增长明显加 快。另外9月政治局会议召开,研究制定"十五五"规划重大问题,并决定10月20日至23日召开二十 届四中全会,当前逐步进入会议窗口期,可能引起市场对进一步政策的预期。国庆假期期间,日元贬 值、美元指数上升推动黄金避险资产创历史新高,国内出行、消费温和修复,主题和题材上消息偏 多,A股宽基指数对海外事件反应平淡,节后上证指数突破3900点、创10年新高,但监管有意防范短 期非理性的上涨,大涨后的回调亦较为迅猛,特别是半导体板块因前期涨幅过大,触发连续大幅调 整,对指数形成拖累。杠杆资金依然较为活跃,节后首日大幅回流,单日净流入额创"924"以来新 高,全A成交节后回升至 ...

首席 点 评 ： 长假消费增势良好 股指： 美国三大指数下跌，国庆节后首个交易日股指开门红，有色金属板块领涨，传媒板块领跌，市 场成交额 2.67 万亿元。资金方面， 9 月 30 日融资余额减少 340.61 亿元至 23783.90 亿元。经过 9 月的 高位震荡，我们认为股指将再次进入方向选择阶段，从当前走势来看，大概率维持多头趋势。资金面来 看，国内流动性环境有望延续宽松，居民有望加大权益类资产配置，同时，随着美联储降息、人民币升 值，外部资金也有望流入国内市场。市场风格方面，虽然科技成长已成为本轮市场趋势性上涨行情中最 核心的主线，但考虑到四季度稳增长政策有望加码、全球货币政策与财政政策有望共振，四季度市场风 格可能会向价值回归并较三季度更加均衡。 双焦： 昨日夜盘双焦盘面走势震荡，持仓量环比基本持平。从昨日公布的钢联数据来看，五大材供应 环比基本持平，但受长假的影响，五大材社会库存环比大幅增加、表需环比明显回落，库存增量主要由 螺纹贡献。短期来看，钢材的持续累库与盘面利润走缩、当前蒙煤通关高位的预期、节后高价资源的市 场接受度存疑、以及同期低位的近远月价差均会对盘面走势构成压力，但 10 月下旬的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 能源化工多数下跌，股指延续升势 ——中信期货晨报20251010 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 理价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | | 沪深300期货 | 4689.2 | 1.54% | 1.54% | 1.54% | 1.54% | 19.59% | | 股指 | 上证50期货 | 3026 | 1.24% | 1.24% | 1.24% | 1.24% | 12.99% | | | 中证500期货 | 7415.8 | 1.72% | 1.72% | 1.72% | 1.72% | 30.26% | | | 中证1000期货 | 7449 6 | 0 59% | 0 59% | 0 ...

港股市场科技权重股走势分化。恒生指数收报26752.59点，未能守住早盘涨幅；恒生科技指数报6471.34 点；恒生中国企业指数微涨0.07%。科网股涨跌互现，半导体板块午后跳水，对指数形成明显拖累。 今日A股与港股市场呈现"沪强港弱"分化格局，A股在科技与资源双主线驱动下放量突破，港股则受科 技股拖累震荡收跌，市场凸显"产业升级与政策预期共振"的结构性特征。 A股三大指数全线收涨，沪指涨1.32%报3933.97点，创十年新高，科创50指数大涨2.93%领跑主要指 数；港股恒生指数微跌0.29%，恒生科技指数跌0.66%，连续四日回调。两市成交额显著放大，A股成交 2.67万亿元，港股成交3868亿港元，显示资金在节后加速回流A股科技主线，南向资金净买入30.43亿港 元，为港股提供一定支撑。 展望后市，政策红利与产业趋势共振将持续主导市场风格，科技成长与周期资源双主线有望延续强势。 随着三季报业绩验证窗口开启，业绩预增品种或受资金追捧，同时需关注全球流动性变化及地缘政治风 险对市场情绪的扰动。 主要指数表现 A股市场呈现显著的"成长领先、大小盘分化"特征。上证指数全天高位运行，收盘站稳3900点整数关 口 ...

光大期货：基本面未明显好转前提下仅靠厂家涨价或难以持续，后续沙河地区煤改气、冬季大气污染治理、反内卷等都将给玻璃 供应带来扰动。需求也存在双节备货、年底赶工等支撑，四季度供需格局有回暖预期，玻璃期价底部特征明显。但受制于终端地 产需求起色偏慢，玻璃供需矛盾缓解幅度仍不明显，不建议对上方高度过分乐观。 创元期货：未来一段时间，玻璃利多因素和利空因素交织，利多主要是旺季、沙河地区煤改气以及可能存在的政策预期。利空主 要是当前的现实情况仍然羸弱，并没有发生重大逆转，其次是高企的中游库存仍然是压制。供给端16万吨日熔量比较高，政策预 期带动涨价，建议观察下游能否接受。沙河煤改气落地后，成本抬升，但是目前看，中游库存压力不减，月差维持弱势。建议关 注湖北地区动态，近两日湖北地区陆续提涨，基差收敛走强由现货向上带动，近月基本平水现货，弱现实和强预期格局比较分 化，现货端利多利空并存，观察旺季能否兑现。 【机构观点】 9月30日早盘，玻璃主力合约维持偏弱走势。旺季、沙河地区煤改气以及可能存在的政策预期是利多因素，但玻璃库存高位且需 求疲弱限制价格上涨，供应端扰动存在分歧，估值受煤制气和石油焦产线利润影响，市场处于弱平衡到弱 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 政策预期升温，股指震荡上涨 核心观点 今日各股指均震荡上涨。沪深京三市全天成交额 21781 亿元，较上日 放量 120 亿元。消息面，中共中央政治局 9 月 29 日召开会议，研究制定国 民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划重大问题。政策利好预期持续发酵，一 方面市场关注短期的稳定需求政策，另一方面市场也关注中长期的战略产 业布局。中长期来看，政策利好预期与资金面长期净流入趋势构成驱动股指 上行的中长期动力。短期内，由于股票估值端显著上升，特别是指数反弹至 前期高点附近，获利资金止盈需求上升，并且考虑到国庆长假的不确定性扰 动仍存，假期前股指上行动能相对有限。后市主要关注资金止盈节奏与政策 预期发酵的博弈情况。总的来说，由于指数接近前期高点以及临近长假，短 期内股指预计以宽幅震荡为主。 目前期权隐含波动率有所回落，考虑到股指中长线向上，可以继续持 有牛市价差或比例价差。 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：057 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-26 政策仍有预期，基本⾯延续季节性改善 继周内《建材⾏业稳增⻓⽅案》出台后，中国炼焦⾏业协会市场委员 会的会议再度引发市场"反内卷"情绪提升，⽇盘板块多数品种呈现 先抑后扬⾛势，但从⽇内涨跌幅来看，焦炭相对偏强，夜盘时段，虽 然以煤焦为代表，价格⼩幅回落，但炉料需求所对应的铁⽔产出继续 表现强劲，进⽽预计板块品种价格下⾏空间有限。 3、合金方面，旺季期间下游采购需求预期对锰硅价格仍存支撑，但 后市市场供需预期较为悲观、旺季过后锰硅价格中枢仍存下行空间， 关注原料成本的下调幅度。旺季预期及成本坚挺支撑硅铁价格表现， 但硅铁供需关系趋向宽松、旺季过后价格仍存下行压力。 4、玻璃现实需求偏弱，但旺季以及政策预期存在、《建材行业稳增 长方案》出台加强政策预期，中游去库后可能仍有一波震荡反复。中 长期来看仍旧需要市场化去产能，若价格重回基本面交易，则预计震 荡下行。纯碱供给过剩格局没有改变，预计后续跟随宏观变动宽幅震 荡运行。长期来看价格中枢仍将下行，推动产能去化。 整体而言，随着旺季深入，产业链各环节、尤其是中上游环节依 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the photovoltaic industry, focusing on the stability of prices in the polysilicon, wafer, cell, and module segments, driven by supply-demand dynamics and policy expectations [4][6][10][14]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is facing high inventory levels exceeding 400,000 tons, with a slight accumulation trend. However, major producers are signaling production cuts post-holiday to manage supply [4]. - Demand is weak as downstream companies prioritize consuming existing inventory due to previous stockpiling, leading to subdued market purchases [5]. - Despite a relaxed supply-demand balance, polysilicon prices remain stable, supported by strong policy expectations and limited supply-side discipline [6]. Wafers - The wafer segment shows a healthy supply-demand balance with inventory levels around 16 GW. The supply structure is tight for 183N and 210N wafers, while inventory for 210RN has eased due to proactive production adjustments [7]. - Downstream demand for wafers is robust, effectively consuming the output from the wafer segment [8]. - Price expectations for wafers are bullish due to rising costs from upstream polysilicon, strong demand from cells, and anticipated supply reductions [9]. Cells - The cell segment exhibits a favorable supply-demand landscape with inventory levels maintained at a healthy 3-5 days. Supply adjustments are targeted rather than broad, with some manufacturers reducing production of the underperforming 210RN cells [10]. - Demand is differentiated, with 183N cells driven by overseas markets like Turkey and India, while 210N cells are primarily supported by domestic demand [11]. - Cell prices are expected to remain high due to healthy inventory levels, strong demand for mainstream products, and rational supply-side adjustments [12]. Modules - The module market is currently influenced by both cost pressures and policy factors, leading to strong price support and increased market differentiation among manufacturers [14]. - Rising upstream costs have pushed module prices to a critical point of 0.7 RMB/W, causing a price inversion between new and old orders, which impacts manufacturer profitability [14]. - The industry's self-discipline actions, including production and sales limits, are expected to significantly influence supply in the fourth quarter, providing strong support for module prices [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The core logic lies in the game between the short - term profit - taking intention of funds and the long - and medium - term fermentation of policy - favorable expectations [1][5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term profit - taking intention of funds and long - and medium - term fermentation of policy - favorable expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. Yesterday, all stock indices rose comprehensively, with IC and IM leading the gains. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2347.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 171.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The rebound was accompanied by a reduction in stock market trading volume and a decrease in the open interest of stock index futures, indicating that investors still have differences in their views on the future market. The main trading logic of the stock market comes from policy expectations and capital flows. The game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations needs to be focused on. On one hand, as the valuation has risen significantly, especially when the index rebounds to near the previous high, the demand for profit - taking of profitable funds increases. On the other hand, the policy - favorable expectations and the long - term net inflow trend of the capital side constitute the long - and medium - term driving force for the upward movement of the stock index. The fermentation of policy - favorable expectations depends on the convening of the important meeting in October. The fact that the margin trading balance has exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan and the significant year - on - year increase in new non - bank deposits in July and August indicate the signs of residents' wealth allocation to the equity market. In general, due to the index approaching the previous high and the approaching long holiday, the stock index is expected to be mainly in wide - range oscillation in the short term [5].