Group 1 - The core conflict revolves around energy supply and survival, with Ukraine facing a severe energy crisis due to Russian attacks, leading to a significant reduction in natural gas production and reliance on imports [2][3] - Ukraine's energy minister stated that the country needs to import 4.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas this winter, costing nearly 2 billion euros, highlighting the financial strain on Ukraine's already depleted budget [2][3] - Russia is experiencing a paradox of a "refining crisis," with a 40%-45% loss in refining capacity due to Ukrainian strikes, leading to domestic fuel shortages and a decrease in oil export revenues, which constitute 45% of the federal budget [3][5] Group 2 - Ukraine's survival depends heavily on Western support, with the EU pledging an additional 16 million euros for heating equipment and 50 billion euros in long-term support, but the timing of this aid is critical [3][5] - Russia maintains a steady flow of crude oil exports, exceeding 3 million barrels per day to China and India, which helps sustain its income despite the refining challenges [5] - The ongoing conflict's outcome will be determined by the sustainability of external support for Ukraine and the internal resilience of both nations, with Ukraine facing imminent risks of energy supply failure and Russia dealing with refining capacity issues [5][6]