Group 1: Global External Demand Indicators - The analysis indicates that global external demand may face adjustment pressure in Q4 2023, with a moderate recovery likely in the first half of 2024[1] - Among 20 leading indicators, 11 can predict next year's data, with 7 suggesting a rebound in external demand in Q1 or the entire first half of 2024[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) shows a year-on-year increase of 20.2% as of October, indicating a potential rise in global cargo export volume[3][19] - The Goods Trade Barometer from WTO suggests an upward trend in global goods trade volume until July-August 2023, with a current index reading of 103.5, above the historical trend value of 100[4][25] Group 2: Industrial and Business Confidence Indicators - The G7 OECD Composite Leading Indicator predicts a fluctuation in China's exports at the beginning of Q4 2023, followed by a moderate recovery into early 2024[6][50] - JPMorgan's Global Manufacturing PMI New Export Orders indicates a moderate recovery in global trade demand over the next 1-2 months, although there are signs of potential downward risks due to previous overperformance[7][56] - The PMI Future Output Expectations suggest a risk of decline in manufacturing output growth, as current production levels exceed expectations[7][59] Group 3: Financial Cycle Indicators - A global central bank interest rate cut tracker indicates a moderate recovery in external demand over the next nine months, particularly as the U.S. begins its rate cut cycle[8] - The Global Monetary Policy Tracking Index shows short-term adjustment pressure on external demand, with a stable outlook for the first half of 2024[8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Indicators - Global semiconductor sales growth is expected to remain resilient, with a mild decline projected for next year, indicating stable ICT demand[9] - The GlobalData forecast predicts a slight decline in global light vehicle sales growth for 2024, reflecting low-level fluctuations in automotive trade demand[9][63]